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Comparing Player Rankings to Average Draft Position

July 22, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

DeMarco Murray

Here is DeMarco Murray running through a huge hole against his current team, the Tennessee Titans, two seasons ago. Can he regain that 2014 form? We have him ranked much higher than his ADP.

We posted our initial fantasy football player rankings last week and one of the first things I wanted to do after the dust settled is compare them to average draft position data. This way I can see which players stick out as being ranked higher or lower than the consensus fantasy football community. These players likely require a little more analysis to determine if I can justify the difference.

After fussing with some database queries to convert ADP pick data to a position ranking, here are the results. Note the rankings are before the latest news on Le’Veon Bell that he could face a 4-game suspension for missing a mandatory drug test (which is equivalent to a failed test). Oh Le’Veon, you darn fool.

We will start with the tables, identify the players with the biggest discrepancies, and then come back later to add some commentary on those players as to why they are ranked where they are.

QB

+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                  | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Andrew Luck, IND        |    1 |      1 | QB3     | +2   |
| Drew Brees, NO          |    1 |      2 | QB6     | +4   |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB       |    1 |      3 | QB2     | -1   |
| Russell Wilson, SEA     |    1 |      4 | QB4     |  0   |
| Cam Newton, CAR         |    1 |      5 | QB1     | -4   |
| Ben Roethlisberger, PIT |    2 |      6 | QB5     | -1   |
| Blake Bortles, JAC      |    2 |      7 | QB9     | +2   |
| Philip Rivers, SD       |    2 |      8 | QB11    | +3   |
| Tom Brady, NE           |    2 |      9 | QB7     | -2   |
| Eli Manning, NYG        |    3 |     10 | QB10    |  0   |
| Kirk Cousins, WAS       |    3 |     11 | QB14    | +3   |
| Carson Palmer, ARI      |    3 |     12 | QB8     | -4   |
| Ryan Tannehill, MIA     |    3 |     13 | QB21    | +8   |
| Matthew Stafford, DET   |    3 |     14 | QB18    | +4   |
| Jameis Winston, TB      |    4 |     15 | QB17    | +2   |
| Derek Carr, OAK         |    4 |     16 | QB12    | -4   |
| Andy Dalton, CIN        |    4 |     17 | QB15    | -2   |
| Matt Ryan, ATL          |    4 |     18 | QB16    | -2   |
| Jay Cutler, CHI         |    4 |     19 | QB23    | +4   |
| Tony Romo, DAL          |    4 |     20 | QB13    | -7   |
| Marcus Mariota, TEN     |    4 |     21 | QB20    | -1   |
| Tyrod Taylor, BUF       |    4 |     22 | QB19    | -3   |
| Brock Osweiler, HOU     |    5 |     24 | QB22    | -2   |
| Joe Flacco, BAL         |    5 |     26 | QB24    | -2   |
+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Ryan Tannehill

Ranked Lower

Tony Romo

RB

+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Le'Veon Bell, PIT     |    1 |      1 | RB1     |  0   |
| Todd Gurley, LA       |    1 |      2 | RB2     |  0   |
| Adrian Peterson, MIN  |    2 |      3 | RB4     | +1   |
| Jamaal Charles, KC    |    2 |      4 | RB7     | +3   |
| David Johnson, ARI    |    2 |      5 | RB3     | -2   |
| Matt Forte, NYJ       |    2 |      6 | RB13    | +7   |
| DeMarco Murray, TEN   |    3 |      7 | RB20    | +13  |
| C.J. Anderson, DEN    |    3 |      8 | RB16    | +8   |
| Lamar Miller, HOU     |    3 |      9 | RB6     | -3   |
| Devonta Freeman, ATL  |    3 |     10 | RB8     | -2   |
| Danny Woodhead, SD    |    3 |     11 | RB21    | +10  |
| Eddie Lacy, GB        |    4 |     12 | RB9     | -3   |
| Ezekiel Elliott, DAL  |    4 |     13 | RB5     | -8   |
| Doug Martin, TB       |    4 |     14 | RB11    | -3   |
| LeSean McCoy, BUF     |    4 |     15 | RB12    | -3   |
| Jay Ajayi, MIA        |    4 |     16 | RB24    | +8   |
| Jonathan Stewart, CAR |    4 |     17 | RB27    | +10  |
| Mark Ingram, NO       |    5 |     18 | RB10    | -8   |
| Carlos Hyde, SF       |    5 |     19 | RB17    | -2   |
| Thomas Rawls, SEA     |    5 |     20 | RB14    | -6   |
| Melvin Gordon, SD     |    5 |     21 | RB32    | +11  |
| Ameer Abdullah, DET   |    5 |     22 | RB29    | +7   |
| Dion Lewis, NE        |    5 |     23 | RB15    | -8   |
| Frank Gore, IND       |    5 |     24 | RB30    | +6   |
| T.J. Yeldon, JAC      |    5 |     25 | RB37    | +12  |
| Jeremy Hill, CIN      |    6 |     26 | RB28    | +2   |
| Ryan Mathews, PHI     |    6 |     27 | RB23    | -4   |
| Rashad Jennings, NYG  |    6 |     28 | RB36    | +8   |
| Matt Jones, WAS       |    6 |     29 | RB22    | -7   |
| Justin Forsett, BAL   |    6 |     30 | RB31    | +1   |
| Latavius Murray, OAK  |    6 |     31 | RB18    | -13  |
| Giovani Bernard, CIN  |    6 |     32 | RB26    | -6   |
+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

DeMarco Murray

T.J. Yeldon

Melvin Gordon

Danny Woodhead

Jonathan Stewart

Ranked Lower

Latavius Murray

Ezekiel Elliott

WR

+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                 | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Antonio Brown, PIT     |    1 |      1 | WR1     |  0   |
| Julio Jones, ATL       |    1 |      2 | WR2     |  0   |
| Odell Beckham Jr., NYG |    1 |      3 | WR3     |  0   |
| A.J. Green, CIN        |    1 |      4 | WR5     | +1   |
| DeAndre Hopkins, HOU   |    2 |      5 | WR4     | -1   |
| Allen Robinson, JAC    |    2 |      6 | WR8     | +2   |
| Dez Bryant, DAL        |    2 |      7 | WR6     | -1   |
| Mike Evans, TB         |    2 |      8 | WR11    | +3   |
| T.Y. Hilton, IND       |    2 |      9 | WR17    | +8   |
| Amari Cooper, OAK      |    3 |     10 | WR12    | +2   |
| Jordy Nelson, GB       |    3 |     11 | WR7     | -4   |
| Brandon Marshall, NYJ  |    3 |     12 | WR13    | +1   |
| Demaryius Thomas, DEN  |    3 |     13 | WR16    | +3   |
| Larry Fitzgerald, ARI  |    3 |     14 | WR28    | +14  |
| Alshon Jeffery, CHI    |    3 |     15 | WR10    | -5   |
| Jarvis Landry, MIA     |    3 |     16 | WR15    | -1   |
| Brandin Cooks, NO      |    4 |     17 | WR14    | -3   |
| Keenan Allen, SD       |    4 |     18 | WR9     | -9   |
| Golden Tate, DET       |    4 |     19 | WR22    | +3   |
| Jeremy Maclin, KC      |    4 |     20 | WR23    | +3   |
| Doug Baldwin, SEA      |    4 |     21 | WR24    | +3   |
| Kelvin Benjamin, CAR   |    4 |     22 | WR20    | -2   |
| Julian Edelman, NE     |    4 |     23 | WR18    | -5   |
| Eric Decker, NYJ       |    4 |     24 | WR31    | +7   |
| Randall Cobb, GB       |    5 |     25 | WR19    | -6   |
| Allen Hurns, JAC       |    5 |     26 | WR26    |  0   |
| DeSean Jackson, WAS    |    5 |     27 | WR37    | +10  |
| Sammy Watkins, BUF     |    5 |     28 | WR21    | -7   |
| Markus Wheaton, PIT    |    5 |     29 | WR40    | +11  |
| Jordan Matthews, PHI   |    5 |     30 | WR27    | -3   |
| Donte Moncrief, IND    |    5 |     31 | WR29    | -2   |
| John Brown, ARI        |    5 |     32 | WR33    | +1   |
+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Larry Fitzgerald

Markus Wheaton

DeSean Jackson

T.Y. Hilton

Ranked Lower

Keenan Allen

Sammy Watkins

TE

+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                      | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Rob Gronkowski, NE          |    1 |      1 | TE1     |  0   |
| Greg Olsen, CAR             |    2 |      2 | TE3     | +1   |
| Travis Kelce, KC            |    2 |      3 | TE6     | +3   |
| Coby Fleener, NO            |    2 |      4 | TE7     | +3   |
| Jordan Reed, WAS            |    2 |      5 | TE2     | -3   |
| Delanie Walker, TEN         |    3 |      6 | TE4     | -2   |
| Julius Thomas, JAC          |    3 |      7 | TE9     | +2   |
| Tyler Eifert, CIN           |    3 |      8 | TE5     | -3   |
| Zach Ertz, PHI              |    3 |      9 | TE12    | +3   |
| Gary Barnidge, CLE          |    3 |     10 | TE8     | -2   |
| Jimmy Graham, SEA           |    3 |     11 | TE11    |  0   |
| Dwayne Allen, IND           |    4 |     12 | TE15    | +3   |
| Eric Ebron, DET             |    4 |     13 | TE18    | +5   |
| Antonio Gates, SD           |    4 |     15 | TE14    | -1   |
| Martellus Bennett, NE       |    4 |     16 | TE13    | -3   |
| Ladarius Green, PIT         |    4 |     17 | TE10    | -7   |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB |    4 |     18 | TE19    | +1   |
| Jason Witten, DAL           |    4 |     19 | TE20    | +1   |
| Jordan Cameron, MIA         |    4 |     20 | TE17    | -3   |
| Zach Miller, CHI            |    5 |     24 | TE16    | -8   |
+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Eric Ebron

Ranked Lower

Zach Miller

Ladarius Green

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Preliminary 2016 Running Back Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 6, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Todd Gurley

Todd Gurley joins Le’Veon Bell at the top of our preliminary RB tiers before a drop-off into the second group of the best backs in fantasy football.

Following up our preliminary quarterback tiers, here are the preliminary running back redraft ranking tiers for the 2016 season.

Note the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other running backs in their own tier.

Expect detailed player projections and rankings, plus some fantasy football player commentary in the coming weeks. Comment below with your feedback.

Tier 1

Le’Veon Bell
Todd Gurley

Tier 2

Adrian Peterson
David Johnson
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte

Tier 3

Danny Woodhead
DeMarco Murray
Devonta Freeman
Jonathan Stewart
Lamar Miller

Tier 4

C.J. Anderson
Doug Martin
Eddie Lacy
Ezekiel Elliott ®
Jay Ajayi
LeSean McCoy

Tier 5

Ameer Abdullah
Carlos Hyde
Dion Lewis
Frank Gore
Mark Ingram
Melvin Gordon
T.J. Yeldon
Thomas Rawls

Tier 6

Chris Ivory
Duke Johnson
Giovani Bernard
Jeremy Hill
Jeremy Langford
Justin Forsett
Latavius Murray
Matt Jones
Ryan Mathews
Shaun Draughn

Tier 7

Bilal Powell
Charles Sims
Chris Johnson
Darren Sproles
DeAngelo Williams
Isaiah Crowell
Karlos Williams
LeGarrette Blount
Rashad Jennings
Shane Vereen
Spencer Ware

Tier 8

C.J. Spiller
Chris Thompson
Darren McFadden
Javorius Allen
Jerick McKinnon
Ronnie Hillman
Tevin Coleman
Theo Riddick

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

FPC Draft Recap and Observations Drafting From 5th Pick

August 31, 2015 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Last night I took part in the third of three leagues I signed up for in the Footballguys Players Championship (FPC) hosted by the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). I know, confusingly similar acronyms, but on the plus side, there is a $300,000 grand prize in the overall championship. Not that I expect to win the top prize among 7,500 teams, but I do expect to win at least one of these three leagues that awards $1,500 for first place. Two of three would be dandy.

In the previous two drafts, I had the 12th pick and the 2nd pick. This time the 5th pick, which is pretty good in my humble opinion. Here are some of my takes from the draft. Note for Draft Buddy customers, you can download each of the completed Draft Buddy files I used in these drafts so you can review the entire draft.

Let me start by saying that even though we have Adrian Peterson as the top RB on our board, I already got him in the draft where I had the second overall pick, so I felt perhaps I would diversify with this league. Leaving AP outside my Top 5 for this draft, I made a short list of Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and Rob Gronkowski for my first pick.

It turned out Julio Jones went 1.04 (I like it) leaving me Charles and Gronk to choose from. While many experts love Gronk in the first round, I’m not as much in that camp. I think it is doable. I think in this league in particular with 1.5 points-per-reception (PPR) for TE compared to 1 PPR for RB and WR, it makes sense mathematically, but I just don’t love taking a player first round in a spot where I only have to fill one starter.

Many experts are very much in support of the Upside Down drafting, or later called Zero-RB drafting methodology, forgoing RB in the first, even early rounds, for stud wide receivers instead and stockpiling middle round RB later. The first I read about it is from buddy Matt Waldman (2011), giving credit where credit is due. However, without getting into a lot of detail today, I disagree with that approach. I’ve always found a more balanced approach is best, RB-WR or WR-RB to open things up and leave you best set up to take advantage of players that unexpectedly fall in the draft, no matter what position they are.

First pick, I took Jamaal Charles.

When the second pick came around to me, DeMarco Murray – maybe Lamar Miller – were the only two RB remaining I really loved enough before seeing a big gap between them and the next group at RB. At WR, the current tier of Alshon Jeffery, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins and even Brandin Cooks was deeper. If I took a WR, Miller might make it back to me. If I took Murray, one of those WR – or Jimmy Graham – was much more likely to make it back to me. So, I took Murray.

Third round, one pick away and a bit surprisingly, Graham and Jeffery were both available, thanks in part to Joseph Randle going 3.01. The team in the 4 spot took Graham, leaving me Jeffery.

After three rounds I’ve got two star running backs, and Alshon Jeffery. I’m happy with that. Lets keep in mind it is a PPR league and I really do want a strong WR corps, so I think given my early picks I have less need to stockpile middle round RB and more emphasis at wideout. Also, keeping in mind TE do earn 1.5 PPR so need to constantly assess where a good one can be had, preferably at good draft value. Two are already off the board, and likely more before the draft gets back to me in the 4th round.

From here, maybe I’ll make some quicker bullet points by round. You can see how my roster took shape in the image above, and again, Draft Buddy users can download my completed Draft Buddy from last night’s draft.

Rounds 1 and 2

  • Nothing too out of the ordinary Round 1. Owners in the 4th, 11th and 12th spots all started WR-WR. Interesting that Randall Cobb (2.02) didn’t really get downgraded at all for his shoulder injury. Surprise pick: Brandin Cooks (2.09) but even more surprising: Mark Ingram (2.03). I’ve never seen Ingram go that high. In that owner’s shoes I would have risked he would get back to me in the 3rd, but I don’t have a problem with it, as he may very well could have missed out on him by waiting.

Round 3

  • Joseph Randle (3.01) seems quite high given very recent news item about full-blown RBBC in Dallas, and Darren McFadden looked better than Randle in the last preseason game.
  • Not surprisingly, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce (who I really like, but maybe not in this league since I already have Charles) and Martellus Bennett all went this round after Graham went.
  • First QB taken, Andrew Luck at 3.07. Still too early for me with all of the non-QB starter spots to fill.

Rounds 4 and 5

  • These rounds make me happy I went RB-RB to start. While there are certainly going to be some RB that pan out, you are still picking through many, “geez, I don’t know” options. Melvin Gordon (4.09) – maybe he hits, maybe he doesn’t. Todd Gurley (5.03) – seems really optimistic for this year. C.J. Spiller (5.11) – already sidelined, think very early bullish forecasts on Spiller are still causing him to get drafted high for my taste.
  • I took Davante Adams 4.08. Great offense, great QB, their best not injured WR right now. Definitely prefer to run with a less proven Adams in his situation than injured Emmanuel Sanders (4.04) or injured likely out Week 1, and doesn’t find the end zone much anyway, Julian Edelman (4.12).
  • My 5th round pick was a tough one. Jarvis Landry – high receptions but limited big plays and strong supporting cast to share with, good offense and QB – vs. Sammy Watkins – super talent, bad offense and QB. I said to my wife Sarah, “Bills WR?” to which she turned up her nose, and I knew she would do that so a bit of a leading question. It was more likely Watkins might make it back to me in the 6th round, so I took Landry, who I seem to like more than most.

Rounds 6 and 7

  • I was thinking Watkins obviously. Or Charles Johnson as a potential breakout candidate. I was thinking Arian Foster as I loved my start and at this point if he comes back in the Week 4-6 range, could be a huge boom to the bottom line. None made it to my 6.08 pick. Johnson actually went late-5th. Watkins was close, at 6.05.
  • In the meanwhile, Jason Witten and Kyle Rudolph both went, driving down the available good tight ends, and only one of the first four teams drafting after me had a TE at this point, so I added Delanie Walker (6.08).
  • Only QB I mentioned so far is Andrew Luck, but Aaron Rodgers also went in the 3rd, Ben Roethlisberger in the 6th, then Matt Ryan (7.01) and Drew Brees (7.04). Ultimately, this turned out to be one of the oddest order of QB I’ve seen drafted this year. Five QB are gone but Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning are still available? I would not normally take a QB this early but since no players were really standing out for me as must-haves, and Wilson looks like exceptional value, I tag Wilson.
  • Although Martavis Bryant getting drafted two spots later I may have strongly considered had I thought of him. He was down my cheatsheet given the most recent projection update.
  • More proof I’m glad I went RB early as Giovani Bernard and Danny Woodhead are getting drafted. I’d rather set my team apart at this stage with a Walker, Wilson, or regularly contributing WR, than be scraping together points from low-use RB who can be very good in short spurts but be tough to rely on them over the course of the season.

Rounds 8, 9 and 10

  • QB curiosity continued. Peyton went at 8.12, but Sam Bradford (9.03) and Teddy Bridgewater (9.07) went within spitting distance of him. Cam Newton still hasn’t been drafted and ultimately went QB16 at the top of the 14th round. Pretty baffling. Since I had Wilson I was determined to not spend very much at all on a second QB, but some great values there. All the more reason to not spend a 3rd round pick on Luck or Rodgers.
  • Still some good WR picks in here – Steve Smith, Roddy White (although getting a bit skeptical of him) – and RB picks are sketchy. LeGarrette Blount, who I’ve drafted numerous times already this year, could be good but could also be extremely frustrating to try to figure out what weeks to start him (after his suspension).
  • Given importance of the position and limited options with true upside, took Julius Thomas. He seems below the radar now since we haven’t heard much about him lately, but Jaguars offense seems to be clicking and JT appears in line to return Week 1.
  • At this point, I still only have 2 RB, so time to add some depth. DeMarco’s backup Ryan Mathews went 8.09 immediately after I took Thomas, so hitting on a starter at this point will be tough. Darren McFadden is available, every Cleveland RB is available. What if Arian Foster isn’t back as optimistically as recent news reports? What if he comes back and gets hurt again? I do think Alfred Blue is the clear guy to own over Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk, so I tag Blue who should start first part of the season and gives me time to work the waiver wire for other RB options to emerge.

I guess I will cut it off there for the commentary. While not an optimal high stakes, win the big overall prize strategy, I did handcuff Jamaal drafting Knile Davis in the 11th round. I feel good about the team, I might as well take out a little insurance on my top RB.

As usual, got sniped by a pick or two on a few guys, but its always going to feel that way. What I’ve learned is you can’t have every player you want, there are only so many roster spots available. I think I got some underrated, quality upside depth at decent value, and this team has a good shot to compete for the league championship, and maybe more!

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

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