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Preliminary 2016 Running Back Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 6, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Todd Gurley

Todd Gurley joins Le’Veon Bell at the top of our preliminary RB tiers before a drop-off into the second group of the best backs in fantasy football.

Following up our preliminary quarterback tiers, here are the preliminary running back redraft ranking tiers for the 2016 season.

Note the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other running backs in their own tier.

Expect detailed player projections and rankings, plus some fantasy football player commentary in the coming weeks. Comment below with your feedback.

Tier 1

Le’Veon Bell
Todd Gurley

Tier 2

Adrian Peterson
David Johnson
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte

Tier 3

Danny Woodhead
DeMarco Murray
Devonta Freeman
Jonathan Stewart
Lamar Miller

Tier 4

C.J. Anderson
Doug Martin
Eddie Lacy
Ezekiel Elliott ®
Jay Ajayi
LeSean McCoy

Tier 5

Ameer Abdullah
Carlos Hyde
Dion Lewis
Frank Gore
Mark Ingram
Melvin Gordon
T.J. Yeldon
Thomas Rawls

Tier 6

Chris Ivory
Duke Johnson
Giovani Bernard
Jeremy Hill
Jeremy Langford
Justin Forsett
Latavius Murray
Matt Jones
Ryan Mathews
Shaun Draughn

Tier 7

Bilal Powell
Charles Sims
Chris Johnson
Darren Sproles
DeAngelo Williams
Isaiah Crowell
Karlos Williams
LeGarrette Blount
Rashad Jennings
Shane Vereen
Spencer Ware

Tier 8

C.J. Spiller
Chris Thompson
Darren McFadden
Javorius Allen
Jerick McKinnon
Ronnie Hillman
Tevin Coleman
Theo Riddick

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Pittsburgh Steelers Team Report

July 8, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Antonio Brown is crazy good. He should be considered the league's top fantasy wide receiver in PPR formats.

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Antonio Brown is crazy good. He should be considered the league’s top fantasy wide receiver in PPR formats.

QB Ben Roethlisberger

After topping 4,000 passing yards just twice during the first nine years of his career, Roethlisberger has accomplished the feat in each of the last two seasons, posting a career high 4,952 passing yards in 2014 to go along with 32 touchdown passes (matching a career high). At 33 years of age, Big Ben is clearly in the prime of his career and with a solid supporting cast of skill position players, he should be in line for another big season in 2015. Having finished as the 8th ranked fantasy quarterback in 2013 and 5th last season, the question is whether he can repeat his 2014 performance. While it’s not always fair to remove a player’s best performances in making this type of decision, in this case it might be fair game. Of Roethlisberger’s 378.3 fantasy points from last year, 91.1 came in two games, meaning that he averaged 20.5 PPG in his other 14 games which ranked 15th amongst quarterbacks that played at least 10 games. Of course, if we simply assumed that Roethlisberger’s two best games averaged 35 PPG, then he would have been the 10th ranked quarterback on a PPG basis. Let’s call that his floor. Given his solid supporting cast, his comfort in Todd Haley’s offense and the not insignificant fact that running back Le’Veon Bell will miss the first three games of the season, we rate Roethlisberger as a mid-tier QB1.

RB Le’Veon Bell

After a successful rookie season that saw him accumulate 860 rushing yards and 408 receiving yards with eight touchdowns, Bell emerged as one of the league’s top running backs in 2014. Somewhat of a plodder in his rookie season when he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, Bell averaged an impressive 4.7 yards per carry last season while chalking up 1,361 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He also ranked amongst the league’s top receiving threats out of the backfield, catching 83 of his 105 targets (an outstanding 79.0% catch rate) for 854 yards and three touchdowns. With an upper tier quarterback running the show together with one of the league’s better offensive lines, Bell is set for another upper tier RB1 season in 2015. Of course, that won’t start until Week 4, courtesy of a three-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. If you are confident you can find a quality replacement in the later rounds of your draft to substitute for Bell during those weeks, then you should feel fine grabbing him with your 1st round pick.

RB DeAngelo Williams

The Panthers finally cut bait on Williams during the offseason, ending his nine-year run in Carolina. Signed to a mammoth contract based on a pair of 1,000 yard seasons in 2008 and 2009 (the only two of his career), Williams never returned to elite form as the injuries, the presence of Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart, and the Panthers inability to consistently put together a solid offensive line kept him from reaching his potential. Having joined the Steelers in the offseason, Williams will back up Le’Veon Bell and start the first three games of the season with Bell suspended. Don’t expect him to approach Bell’s production. Williams’ yards per carry has declined in each of the last three seasons to just 3.5 last season when he played just six games due to injury. He is little more than a low level handcuff since we expect the Steelers to rely heavily on their passing attack when Bell is out of the lineup.

RB Josh Harris

Having done little to establish himself as a viable option in the event of Le’Veon Bell’s absence, Harris was presumably bypassed on the depth chart when the Steelers signed DeAngelo Williams in the offseason. Since the Steelers don’t view Harris as a potential handcuff to Bell, he has no fantasy value barring an injury to either Bell or Williams.

RB Dri Archer

The Steelers squandered a 3rd round pick in last year’s NFL Draft on the diminutive Archer. While they hoped that he could deliver some big plays, the 5’8″, 173 pound Kent State product amassed just 40 yards on 10 carries and 23 yards on seven receptions. Since the Steelers were seemingly at a loss with respect to how to get him the ball in space, he has no fantasy appeal despite possessing blazing speed (4.26 40 time).

WR Antonio Brown

After posting a career year in 2013 with 110 receptions for 1,499 yards and eight touchdowns, Brown was even better in 2014, once again setting career highs across the board with 181 targets, 129 receptions, 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns. Even more impressive was his consistency as he posted seven or more fantasy points in all 16 games after doing so in 13 of 16 games in 2013. In 2015, we expect that Martavis Bryant’s emergence will eat into his target count slightly as well as his red zone opportunities. However, along with Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant, Brown rates as a Tier 1 fantasy wide receiver this season in standard scoring formats and quite likely should be considered the league’s top wide receiver in PPR formats.

WR Martavis Bryant

The Steelers selected Bryant in the 4th round of last year’s NFL Draft and the expectation was that he would spend the season buried on the depth chart behind Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton and Lance Moore. Considered somewhat of a raw product coming out of college, the 6’5″, 200 pound former Clemson Tiger used his size and speed (4.42 40 time) to earn a more significant role beginning in Week 7 when he went on a four game terror, catching 14 passes for 310 yards and six touchdowns. He finished the season with 26 receptions for 549 yards and eight touchdowns despite appearing in just 10 games and receiving more than five targets in just three of those contests. Given his ability as a deep threat as well as in the red zone, we expect Bryant to have an expanded role in the Steelers offense in 2015. He rates as a mid to upper tier WR3 with breakout potential.

WR Markus Wheaton

After opening the 2014 season in the starting lineup opposite Antonio Brown, Wheaton was eventually passed on the depth chart by rookie Martavis Bryant. After an impressive 97 yard performance to open the season, he managed just 549 yards in his final 15 games while scoring two touchdowns. At 5’11” and 182 pounds, Wheaton doesn’t possess Bryant’s impressive size and the Steelers have said that he will operate out of the slot in 2015. That limits his breakout potential but the truth is that we expect Brown and Bryant to eat up a large amount of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s targets this season with Wheaton likely to see fewer than 100 targets operating out of the slot. Another 650-700 yard season with between 2-4 touchdowns seems likely for Wheaton in 2015.

WR Sammie Coates

Taken in the 3rd round of this year’s draft, Coates joins a Steelers roster that features arguably the league’s top wide receiver in Antonio Brown as well as emerging youngsters Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton. While Coates boasts impressive speed and playmaking ability, the 6’2″, 201 pound Auburn product faces an uphill battle to earn significant playing time as a rookie. With Wheaton expected to operate out of the slot and Bryant coming off an impressive rookie campaign where he displayed solid potential as a deep threat, Coates’ will need to have an outstanding preseason to enter the season as anything more than a WR4. While he is waiver wire material in redraft formats, he is a mid-tier prospect in dynasty leagues.

TE Heath Miller

At 32 years of age (33 in October), there isn’t much that is appealing about Heath Miller. Although he racked up the 11th most targets amongst tight ends last season and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for the most yards of his career, Miller still managed to record just 761 yards with three touchdowns. For fantasy purposes, he needs to find the end zone more regularly to be worthy of TE1 status but he has just four touchdowns over the last two seasons. Going a little further back, he has three or fewer touchdowns in four of the last five seasons. Since we don’t expect his usage in the red zone to increase, he rates as a mid to lower tier TE2 with little upside.

Also see: Pittsburgh Steelers IDP Team Report | Cincinnati Bengals Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC North

June 10, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Baltimore Ravens

  • “Quarterback Whisperer” Marc Trestman is the Ravens new OC, which one would assume means an uptick for QB Joe Flacco and RB Justin Forsett in the passing game. The problem with boosting Flacco is he’s already thrown pass attempts in excess of former Trestman protégé Jay Cutler in recent years, and his supporting cast consists of two rookies and a very late bloomer or journeyman RB amongst his top four pass catchers. You can be bullish about Flacco, but he’s still considered just a fringe starter or reliable backup.
  • We’ve currently got Forsett in line with his catches last season, which should arguably go up. Matt Forte caught 74 and 102 receptions in his two seasons under Trestman. However, Forsett is not Forte. Forsett bounced around playing for four different teams through six seasons before finally breaking out last year. That’s a red flag, or at least a caution. Lorenzo Taliaferro wasn’t particularly impressive as a rookie, so the team added Javorius Allen via the NFL Draft. How effective these guys are is the main threat to Forsett’s workload.
  • Steve Smith started off hot last season with four touchdowns, four 100-yard games in the first six weeks. Then there was a noticeable fade. Does he have another 1,000-yard season in him? Possible given the opportunity, but not great odds.
  • The Ravens need at least one of rookies Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams (preferably both) to make an immediate impact. The team is optimistic Dennis Pitta will play this season but it looks 50-50 at best right now.

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Fantasy players don’t like Andy Dalton. He failed to crack 3,400 yards or 20 TD passing last season, but I still had to double check why (at the time) his 12-team ADP was n/a on our initial online cheatsheets. It’s a running team. The Bengals would be quite content to keep him under 500 pass attempts.
  • Giovani Bernard looked like he might be the next Jamaal Charles-esque all-purpose back after his rookie season in 2013. Then Jeremy Hill came to town and all bets are off. Hill overtook Bernard producing over 1,300 yards on 222 carries and 27 receptions. Bernard missed a few games, still chipped in over 1,000 yards on over 200 touches, but the coaching staff showed a lot more confidence in Hill. Hills’ yards-per-carry is half a yard better. He’s the guy to own. Bernard only if he drops too far to present good value.
  • One of the best receivers in the game is A.J. Green, but the run heavy philosophy begets a slight downgrade from Green’s 3-year weighted average. Mohamed Sanu filled in pretty well when Green was out and Marvin Jones was lost for the season. Now Sanu and Jones will challenge each other for snaps. Jones wins, if healthy.
  • Veteran Jermaine Gresham is a free agent still on the market, leaving Tyler Eifert who has done little in his NFL career, and rookie Tyler Kroft. Eifert is an end-game flier if you need a second TE, but more than likely this position on the Bengals is a fantasy wasteland. Surprising, since the knock on Dalton is his deep ball.

Cleveland Browns

  • Our projections need some adjustment here. Since initially prepping these, media reports Josh McCown is the clear cut starter and Johnny Manziel is not really in the discussion. Makes sense. Neither are worth drafting.
  • The running back position was tough to figure out last season. It isn’t any clearer this season, and potentially worse, since last year we could write-off Ben Tate pretty early on. This year, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson are all in the picture for carries. We’ve got it Crow-West-Johnson, but none with enough carries to get to 1,000 yards. Losing OC Kyle Shanahan does not help matters.
  • Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline arrive to take over the top two receiver spots. Bowe’s 1,000 yard seasons are a distant memory. Can you believe he caught 15 TD in 2010? This is a dismal depth chart. Robert Housler is interesting to the extent if he does perform for fantasy, we get to see how many pundits put their hand up and say, “see, called it” [three years ago].

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in scoring, within 10 points of 3rd. No significant losses and his receivers are more than likely better. Note he’s getting drafted 8th to 9th QB off the board.
  • Le’Veon Bell is currently suspended the first three games of the season, and that is a bummer. He blew past 350 touches last season. The forced time off scales him back to around 300. Discount accordingly but not too much because it is his points-per-game that matter. Hopefully rust is short lived once he’s back in late September. DeAngelo Williams backs up Bell and has some value knowing he will start three games.
  • Big Ben and Antonio Brown are in a zone. I’ve seen Brown go first WR off the board in some early drafts, and I can’t knock it. Best bet to top 100 receptions this season. Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton are a young, exciting pair, particularly Bryant, but not ready to cut into Brown’s production. Bryant might be a tough decision to start each week on your fantasy team, but he didn’t play the first six weeks last season and then proceeded to score in 7 of 11 games played. Impressive.
  • Some pegged the Steelers to draft a TE replacement for Heath Miller. Not yet. A blah pick but provides an acceptable return if you are last to draft the position.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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