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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Ortiz, Morse, Espinosa, Patterson

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Stock Up

David Ortiz, DH, BOS – Ortiz has built quite a reputation as a slugger over the last decade. A guy with a lot of power and a solid average started to show his age with a very slow start to the 2011 season. Many fantasy owners panicked and abandoned ship. He has hit .400 with six homers, nine RBI, and 13 runs scored over the last two weeks. Now is the time to grab him if he happens to be on your waiver wire or make an offer if his owner hasn’t noticed the fire that Big Papi has lit.

Michael Morse, OF/1B, WAS – After a big spring training, Morse came out in April very flat. He struggled so much that he even found himself on the bad side of a platoon with Laynce Nix and was losing a lot of playing time. When Adam LaRoche went down with an injury, Morse took over the full time job at first base and has flourished. In the last two weeks, Morse has pounded to a .395/5/13/8 tune. He won’t keep up the torrid pace, but he should be a fantasy asset for the rest of the season.

Raul Ibanez, OF, PHI – Ibanez is a relic from another epoch. He is a streaky player these days, so hang on for the ride as long as he’s hot. Over the fortnight he posted a .298/5/13/11 so grab and hang on for the wild ride.

Allen Craig, 2B/OF, STL – Craig plays most days, but isn’t a full-time player. In the last two weeks, he’s hit .450/3/10/7 with a stolen base. Right now he’s hot and the position flexibility is reason enough to grab him and pile up the stats as long as he’s hitting.

Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS – At a thin position, Espinosa is a good grab at middle infield right now. If you’ve watched Espinosa over the last two weeks, you’ve seen him put up .268/5/11/7/1, and you know he’s a good buy. If not, grab him and use him until his bat cools off and then toss him aside for the next hot thing.

Corey Patterson, OF, TOR – Patterson has found a regular job in Toronto’s outfield thanks to a few injuries and is doing everything he can to prove he belongs there. The much-heralded former prospect seems to finally be realizing his potential and is more than just a short term pickup. Yes, his .311/2/8/11/1 line over the last two weeks is nice, but he’s certainly worth watching in keeper leagues to see if he can keep it up.

Mark Trumbo, 1B, LAA – Now that Kendrys Morales is out for the season, Trumbo’s job as the Angels first baseman seems very safe. As long as he keeps hitting like this, his job is definitely safe. The last two weeks saw him post a .280/4/10/6/2 line so grab him if he’s available.

 
Stock Down

Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA – We finally know why Ramirez struggled so mightily during the first month of the season as he has been playing with back and leg problems. He has been placed on the DL and will hopefully heal and be the old Han-Ram we know for the second half. This might be a good chance to talk his owner into selling Ramirez for a “more reliable” player.

Matt Holliday, OF, STL – Holliday has been injured and struggling of late, going .200/1/1/3 over the last two weeks while picking up only 15 at-bats. Holliday has a history of injuries but also a history of putting up big numbers when healthy. This might be a great time to buy low if you can get his owner to ignore all the All-Star votes.

Dan Uggla, 2B, ATL – Uggla typically struggles in April, but turns it on in May. Well, this year is not typical for Uggla. He claims he is pressing to live up to his new $52 million contract, which might be justified by the fact he’s swinging at a lot of balls out of the strike zone and hitting just .118 with runners in scoring position. Regardless, he’s hitting .075/0/1/0 in the last two weeks and just isn’t worth starting right now. Don’t waive him, but if you can find someone looking to pay full value in trade, this might be a good time to rid yourself of a guy who simply isn’t comfortable at the plate this season.

Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN – Stubbs was the chic 30-30 draft pick this season. Many believed that he was ready to bring the average up to a respectable range while hitting 30 homers and stealing 30 bases for your team. He’s hit a lull and has only put up .188/0/3/7/2 in the last two weeks so sit him until he heats up again.

Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, TB – Zobrist wasn’t supposed to be a fantasy stud, but he was supposed to be a significant producer at a very thin position and have position flexibility as well. Since his monstrous 10 RBI day in a double header on April 28, he has struggled badly. He has hit .248/2/5 in those 30 games and doesn’t seem to be showing signs of breaking out any time soon. Unless you are in a very deep league, cut bait and find a more useful bat.

Boston Red Sox—Benefits of a Big Payroll

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The Boston Red Sox have changed their way of thinking—sort of. They decided to build their team with pitching and defense this season.

The irony of course, is that with the Red Sox payroll they can afford to pay top tier pitchers, excellent fielders, oh, and those guys playing the field can also hit pretty well too.

A team—most teams—with a more moderate payroll might be able to concentrate on one facet of the game as a team strength, while chipping away and crossing their fingers the other two work out. Red Sox fans are fortunate to be in the high rent district of Major League Baseball. While the BoSox are off to a slow start in 2010, things will get better with a little patience.

The rotation is stocked full of quality guys. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka (just off the disabled list), and John Lackey are all excellent pitchers. The fifth spot will be manned by the young Clay Buchholz as long as he does his job or else it will be the old Tim Wakefield.

The bullpen is led by Jonathan Papelbon, one of the best closers in baseball. Promising youngster Daniel Bard is waiting in the wings. With pitching like that, you don’t really need a good defense, but it sure helps.

What really helps keep things rolling is a strong offense. Victor Martinez will slide between catcher, first base, and designated hitter while Kevin Youkilis moves across the diamond between first base and third base.

Adrian Beltre was brought in to man third base most of the time and Jacoby Ellsbury has taken his blazing speed to left field after the acquisition of Mike Cameron. J.D. Drew is back in right field when healthy and Dustin Pedroia is at second base while Marco Scutaro is the new shortstop.

With an offense like that, you can deal with having an aging David Ortiz at designated hitter and not worry too much that he’s not his old self.

Beltre, Pedroia, Scutaro, and Youkilis are all off to good starts and Jeremy Hermida is filling in well in the outfield. But David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury have all struggled this season and Cameron and Ellsbury are currently injured.

Victor Martinez is also struggling, but is expected to figure things out before too long. Captain Jason Varitek is catching a little more than planned heading into the season, but he’s swinging the bat well with four dingers in limited appearances.

This team is loaded with talent that will keep them involved in the World Series hunt well into October, assuming that they right the ship soon. The A.L. East is not a place you want to get too far behind in the division race, but there is too much talent here to struggle all season.

All-Sleeper Team

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The users at Mock Draft Central are using that website for a variety of purposes, including trying out new draft strategies, so the results aren’t something to take to the bank. However, the calculated Average Draft Position (“ADP”) of each player is our best method of viewing where players could be drafted in similar leagues, and essentially how to gauge whether fantasy players are bullish or bearish on a particular ball player for the 2010 season.

I project the following players will produce much better than what it currently costs at Mock Draft Central to acquire them. Call them sleepers, or call them value plays if you prefer, here is my 2010 All-Sleeper Team.

C Kurt Suzuki, OAK—With little fanfare, Suzuki quietly goes about his business earning a ton of at bats for a catcher. Suzuki will slightly improve on last season’s numbers which will put him around .280 AVG, 17 HR, 93 RBI and 9 SB. These are good numbers for a guy who’s ADP is 10.01.

1B Adam LaRoche, ARI—LaRoche is well known for having a huge second half of the season, but look for a more consistent full season from a guy in another contract year, and is now playing in a stadium that was the second highest scoring venue in 2009. Numbers like .287/29/120 are more reminiscent of a sixth round pick, not a 15th rounder.

2B Ian Stewart, COL—Stewart should qualify at second base in most leagues with 21 games played at the position in 2009. If you can get him as a second baseman, you should grab him and run. He should put up 25 homers, 90 ribbies and tack on about 9 steals, which is quite a feat for a second baseman going in the 9th round. As a 3B, his likely 2010 position, he’s still solid, but 2B is where the value lies.

3B Casey Blake, LAD—Blake isn’t a flashy player, but he just quietly goes about putting up solid numbers. He’s worth more than the 18.07 ADP he currently sports with a projected .275/19/80 tally. Blake is an excellent mid-round value if one of the elite third basemen doesn’t fall into your lap early in your draft.

SS Miguel Tejada, BAL—Tejada goes to a new team to play a new position. He will be average to below average amongst third basemen, but he qualifies as a shortstop from last season. A .300/17/88 line is nothing earth shattering, but it certainly will beat out most of the players picked in the 12th round where he is currently being selected.

OF Matt LaPorta, CLE, Magglio Ordonez, CWS and Travis Snider, TOR—All three are going in the 17th round over at MDC, but all should be drafted about 5-7 rounds higher. LaPorta is going to be 1B eligible as he will be the new Cleveland starter at that position. Magglio Ordonez has developed a bad reputation for not staying healthy, despite big numbers when he is. Snider is a youngster that should find full time at-bats in the outfield corners and DH. They should all be near 20 homers and north of 80 RBI.

DH David Ortiz, BOS—Big Papi is still a power hitter and will provide you with a solid stats line if he can stay healthy. The faithful at MDC don’t think he will, but I do. His ADP is 12.01, but he’ll be better than that with more the 30 dingers and almost one hundred RBI.

SP Aaron Harang, CIN—Harang was a stud starter before two mediocre seasons. After an emergency appendectomy ended his 2009 campaign, he is a prime candidate for a big comeback and a great fantasy value. His ADP suggests he will go in the middle of the 15th round (15.07), but with a return to his 2007 form, he’ll be a steal in the 12th round or later of your draft.

RP Heath Bell, SD—Since this team is likely to be one of the worst in baseball again this season, no one is looking to San Diego for much fantasy value. Bell is an excellent closer and will get enough saves and put up good ratios to make him a lot better than his eighth round ADP.