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Fantasy Football Dynasty League Rookie Mock Draft—Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon First Off The Board?

May 5, 2015 By Dave 1 Comment

Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon, who should go fisrt in fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts? Gurley has an edge in talent. Gordon has an edge in situation, and isn't rehabbing a torn ACL. And the pick is...

Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon, who should go first in fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts? Gurley has an edge in talent. Gordon has an edge in situation, and isn’t rehabbing a torn ACL. And the pick is…

The NFL Draft is in the books, and as a result many fantasy football dynasty owners are coming out of short hibernation to get their league rookie-only drafts underway. These are the golden children of the fantasy football landscape. The next superstars in the making to set your dynasty team on the winning path for years to come.

Who is the next Odell Beckham Jr. or Jeremy Hill? Who is the next Bishop Sankey, Tavon Austin or Cordarrelle Patterson? Hmm…

While dynasty owners have stars in their eyes for the incoming rookie class, it is always good to keep things in perspective. Early returns on last year’s class are very good, but that was very likely an exceptional year. It isn’t like that every year.

Very good and even great players emerge each season, and the rookies are a good place to start searching for those, but if your fellow owners are gaga for some of these guys and you can parlay it into a bounty of future draft picks, then you have to consider it.

All that said, we still have to think about the short and long-term fantasy outlook for this crop of rookies, and judge how they should be valued or ranked relative to their peers. Here is a three round, 12-team mock draft that does exactly that.

Round 1

1. RB Melvin Gordon, Chargers

While Gordon rates a hair below Todd Gurley in pure ability, he gets to join a Chargers offense that is light years ahead of where the Rams are, in particular at quarterback and along the offensive line.

2. RB Todd Gurley, Rams

One highlight is all it takes to see that Gurley is a special player. However, he is coming off a torn ACL and joins a Rams team with major issues along the offensive line and which currently only has two players that would rate as starters on most NFL teams.

3. WR Amari Cooper, Raiders

The choice between Cooper and Kevin White amounts to polish vs. potential. We’re going with polish and also recognizing that, while David Carr currently rates below Jay Cutler, we like the long term quarterback potential more in Oakland than we do in Chicago.

4. WR Kevin White, Bears

White has potential superstar written all over him but it was a little disconcerting to notice that, despite his blazing speed, his highlight reel didn’t show a player capable of gaining consistent separation.

5. WR DeVante Parker, Dolphins

At some point, Parker will emerge as the Dolphins top wide receiver and it just might happen during his rookie season. Of all of the Dolphins receivers, he is the only one who possesses the ability to emerge as a long term top wideout. The only caveat here is quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s lack of touch on the deep ball.

6. RB Tevin Coleman, Falcons

While not the shiftiest running back, Coleman possesses blazing speed and a willingness to take on opposing tacklers. He fits best in a zone blocking scheme and has a clear lane to a starting position with only the disappointing Devonta Freeman ahead of him.

7. WR Breshad Perriman, Ravens

Let’s run down the check marks: good size, outstanding speed, opportunity to start from Day 1. Yep, Perriman has all that and a strong armed quarterback in Joe Flacco that is a good fit to Perriman’s ability to make plays down the field. He may struggle early but he has tremendous upside.

8. RB T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars

The good news is that Yeldon has a chance to open the season as a starter with Jacksonville. The bad news is that Yeldon was drafted by Jacksonville. While Yeldon lacks the upside of some of his fellow rookie running backs, as the third running back taken in the draft, he will be in the starting line up early in the season, if not on opening day.

9. WR Nelson Agholor, Eagles

Agholor possesses solid, not outstanding speed and lacks ideal size at 6’1” and 190 pounds. While he can line up outside, he may spend most of his time working out of the slot and that would limit his upside.

10. WR Jaelen Strong, Texans

By all accounts, the Texans got a steal by selecting Strong in the 3rd round of the draft. While DeAndre Hopkins is entrenched as the team’s leading wide receiver, Strong figures to unseat Cecil Shorts for a starting position by mid-season.

11. RB Jeremy Langford, Bears

While Matt Forte is scheduled to be a free agent at the end of the season, initial reports indicate that Langford is unlikely to be viewed as a potential long term replacement should Forte leave Chicago.

12. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Titans

Green-Beckham has solid upside and comparisons to Brandon Marshall and Kelvin Benjamin are warranted. However, the Titans in general lack leadership and this pick would look a whole lot better if the team had a veteran wide receiver to mentor him. This is as boom or bust as it gets.

Round 2

1. RB Matt Jones, Redskins

Doesn’t possess major upside but, with Alfred Morris scheduled for free agency at season’s end, could have an opportunity to start in 2016.

2. RB Jay Ajayi, Dolphins

Miami’s backfield is devoid of depth and they had little choice but to end Ajayi’s draft freefall in the 5th round. He has little chance of supplanting Lamar Miller in 2015.

3. TE Maxx Williams, Ravens

Williams is a talented player and the Ravens draft well so there is a solid chance that he will have a long, productive career provided he remains healthy. I would have him ranked higher except for the fact that there are so many tight ends that fit within a certain tier of ability that there isn’t a need to use a high pick on Williams unless you think he will emerge as a superstar. The track record at TE for that is not happening is not stellar.

4. RB Ameer Abdullah, Lions

Not that big, not that fast, Abdullah will most likely work as a chance of pace and receiving option in his rookie year. However, the 2nd round pick has a chance to take over for Joique Bell as early as next season provided he can prove adept at running between the tackles. He will almost certainly never emerge as a workhorse type back.

5. WR Devin Funchess, Panthers

His selection by Carolina in the 2nd round rates as a head scratcher as he is basically a slightly less talented version of 2014 1st round pick Kelvin Benjamin.

6. WR Chris Conley, Chiefs

By now you’ve heard that Kansas City wide receivers failed to catch a single touchdown pass last season and Jeremy Maclin was brought in from Philadelphia to lead the rebuilding project. Well, Conley rates as the second piece of the project and he has a decent chance to emerge as a starter in his rookie season.

7. RB David Johnson, Cardinals

There are two narratives on Johnson. One is that he rates as Andre Ellington’s replacement in Arizona’s starting lineup. The other is that he’s strictly a soft running, 224 lb. backup with little upside.

8. RB David Cobb, Titans

While many are going to predict that Cobb has a chance to supplant second year player Bishop Sankey in the starting lineup, it says here that he is more likely to force Shonn Greene off the roster.

9. WR Sammie Coates, Steelers

Coates has some pretty serious talent and upside for a 3rd round pick but alas the path to playing time in Pittsburgh is somewhat blocked with Antonio Brown and a pair of productive youngsters in Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton in the way.

10. WR Phillip Dorsett, Colts

Not sure why the Colts felt the need to add Dorsett unless there are some concerns about T.Y. Hilton’s availability. We don’t see much of a role for him in 2015 especially since the Colts often line up in two tight end sets.

Jameis Winston

Yep, he went there.

11. QB Jameis Winston, Bucs

With so many solid fantasy options at quarterback, it just doesn’t make sense to reach for one in dynasty rookie drafts. Especially one with Winston’s checkered past and concerns of maturity issues. And he’s joining the Bucs, who just can’t seem to ever get it right.

12. QB Marcus Mariota, Titans

You have to be skeptical of his ability to transfer his college strengths to the pros, especially if coach Ken Whisenhunt fails to appropriately tailor his deep passing offensive philosophy. And where exactly are the playmakers on the Titans offense to help shoulder the load?

Round 3

1. RB Duke Johnson, Browns

Johnson has some serious agility skills but in Cleveland he will likely operate as a change of pace, receiving back behind Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West in an offense that will struggle to move the ball.

2. RB Javorius Allen, Ravens

Allen will enter training camp fighting with Lorenzo Taliaferro for the top spot behind Baltimore’s lead back, Justin Forsett.

3. WR Devin Smith, Jets

Smith’s solid speed and big play ability fill an obvious need in the Jets offense but new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s affinity for short and intermediate throws don’t bode well for Smith’s target count as a rookie nor does the presence of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.

4. RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Panthers

Aging Mike Tolbert is joined by a cast of retreads on Carolina’s depth chart behind Jonathan Stewart. Artis-Payne could emerge as Stewart’s handcuff, making him a potential contributor given Stewart’s lengthy injury history.

5. WR Ty Montgomery, Packers

Any wide receiver selected by Green Bay in the 3rd round warrants fantasy consideration. It’s just hard to predict much of a role for him until Jordy Nelson departs since Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are young, productive players.

6. TE Clive Walford, Raiders

A late-comer to football, Walford lacks the speed necessary to emerge as an upper tier tight end. However, he figures to ascend to the starting lineup early in his career.

7. WR Vince Mayle, Browns

Despite the abundance of talent at the wide receiver position in each of the last two drafts, Cleveland failed to address the position last year and waited until the 4th round this year before draft Mayle, who shapes up as a possession receiver.

8. RB Mike Davis, 49ers

While San Francisco’s current running back depth chart runs three deep with Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter, there is a decent chance that only Hyde will return to the team for the 2016 season, giving Davis a shot at earning some carries in 2016.

9. QB Bryce Petty, Jets

Geno Smith isn’t the answer and Ryan Fitzpatrick has never been the answer either. Petty likely redshirts as a rookie in 2015 with a chance to start next season.

10. WR Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

I have pretty much zero faith in the Seahawks ability to either develop or properly utilize their wide receivers. It’s that point in the draft, folks.

11. WR Rashad Greene, Jaguars

Despite having a solid trio of promising second year wide receivers, Jacksonville added Greene to the mix as their 5th round pick. Puzzling.

12. QB Sean Mannion, Rams

Recently acquired starter Nick Foles isn’t signed beyond this year and will need a solid season to earn a new contract. Given the current state of the team’s wide receivers and offensive line, the odds of that happening aren’t great.

2015 Early Rankings Series

Top 150 | Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Rookie-Only Mock Draft

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Post-NFL Draft Top 5 Rookie Quarterbacks

May 27, 2014 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel (2) drops back in the pocket for a pass attempt at the Chick-fil-A Bowl at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia. December 31, 2013; Photographer: Charles Mitchell/Icon SMI

Johnny Manziel is an exciting fantasy prospect because he will be a true dual-threat on the field, but with his size and desire to run, the potential for injury will always be waiting around the corner in the NFL. Photo: Charles Mitchell/Icon SMI

If the NFL season started today, and if coaches and general managers stick to their words with the media (a huge if), none of these rookie quarterbacks will be named the Week 1 starter for their respective teams.

However, a whole lot can happen from now through organized team activities, minicamps, training camp and preseason. Not to mention once the season starts and if the losses start piling up, those same coaches and GMs who spun the “he’s not ready; sit, learn and be patient” plan earlier, fall under intense pressure to quickly move on to the, “throw ’em to the wolves; lets see what the kid can do” plan.

So even if they don’t start Week 1, these guys could become fantasy football relevant before long. Here are my post-NFL Draft Top 5 Rookie Quarterbacks.

1. Johnny Manziel, CLE

Here comes Johnny Football. Johnny Manziel is an exciting fantasy prospect because he will be a true dual-threat on the field. In 2013, Manziel passed for 4,114 yards and 37 touchdowns while rushing for 759 yards and nine more touchdowns. Some scouts compare Manziel to Robert Griffin III because the Texas A&M star is agile and lightning fast (4.45 40-yard dash).

Manziel’s strength is his legs but he possesses decent arm strength and good accuracy. Manziel’s weakness is his size (6’0″, 210 lbs), and with his desire to run, the potential for injury will always be waiting around the corner in the NFL. To his credit, Manziel survived two seasons of SEC football, which is as close as you get to the NFL at the collegiate level. As of now Brian Hoyer is considered the starter for the Cleveland Browns, but it is only a matter of time before the owner steps in and demands to see Manziel under center.

2. Blake Bortles, JAC

Blake Bortles was the shock of the draft when he was selected third overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. He is the most prototypical quarterback in this class as far as size, but possesses some bad habits with his footwork that occasionally tends to cause inaccurate throws and diminishes his arm strength. Jaguars offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch is more than capable of fixing these issues to fully maximize Bortles’ potential in the NFL.

The team already clearly stated they don’t anticipate Bortles starting immediately, but he should get his opportunity sometime this season. As the draft went on, the Jags focused on adding talent with their premium picks to help make the transition as easy as possible for when that time comes.

3. Teddy Bridgewater, MIN

After being touted as the potential first overall pick in the NFL Draft throughout the college season, questions about Teddy Bridgewater’s frame and leadership caused him to fall to the last pick in the first round where the Minnesota Vikings traded back in to get him. His short to intermediate accuracy and football I.Q. is already at an elite level. In a Norv Turner offense, and with the help of Adrian Peterson, Bridgewater should have the most quarterback success managing the Vikings offense since Brett Favre. He does not have elite arm strength, but when working with short to intermediate weapons such as Cordarrelle Patterson, Greg Jennings, Kyle Rudolph, and Jarius Wright, he has more than enough to be successful with this team.

4. Derek Carr, OAK

Derek Carr enters the NFL following in the footsteps of his older brother David Carr, former first overall pick and first ever pick of the Houston Texans franchise back in 2002. Derek, the Fresno State product, has a cannon for an arm to go along with decent size (6’2″, 215 lbs) and athleticism. Carr had an unbelievable senior season in 2013, passing for 5,083 yards and 50 touchdowns and completing 68.9 percent of his passes.

We likely won’t see Carr until the 2015 season. Oakland Raiders are locked in for Matt Schaub to start this year, and even Matt McGloin could start ahead of Carr if something happens to Schaub. Carr will be able to sit and learn the offense which should help his development. It’s difficult to forecast what this Raiders team will look like in another year, but we do know Carr is the most likely long-term answer at QB on the current roster moving forward.

5. Jimmy Garoppolo, NE

Jimmy Garoppolo has a fatal flaw of not being able to handle pressure that is very reminiscent of former Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert, but the New England Patriots is a great landing spot to hide that flaw and allow him to maximize his better traits such as reading defenses fast and getting the ball out quick. The Patriots put a major focus on upgrading the interior of their line and their offensive weapons. Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, Shane Vereen, and now Jeremy Gallon excel in getting open quick and presenting a big target for the quarterback. Nobody knows how long Tom Brady will continue to play, but with time to develop, Garoppolo would be a good fit for this offense.

Another Guy to Monitor:

Tom Savage, HOU
Tom Savage is the best option on the Houston Texans roster to become their quarterback of the future. He is a developmental project, but if anyone is up to the task of turning a project into a serviceable starter, new head coach Bill O’Brien is that guy. He has experience from coaching at Penn State and working with Matt McGloin and Christian Hackenburg. Both greatly exceeded expectations and he brought a lowly team, crippled by the Jerry Sandusky scandal, back to relevance in college football. If they deem Savage ready for the opportunity to start, he has a favorable situation with a good offensive line, an elite running game, a great WR duo in Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, and a good defense to lean on, preventing the team from getting in a hole early and letting the opposition tee off on their young QB.

Also see: Top 10 Rookie RB | Top 10 Rookie WR | Top 5 Rookie TE | Top 10 Rookie IDP
 

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