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Stack #2
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Stack #3
Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.
My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
How to Read the Charts
The New York Mets are facing a RHP on road and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.27 FanDuel and 1.72 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Dan Straily MIA and he is currently allowing 115% more ppa in FanDuel and 113% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.094 on FanDuel and 1.598 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.27 x 115% in FanDuel and 1.72 x 113% in DraftKings.
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.094 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | NYM | RHP on road | 2.27 | Dan Straily MIA | 115% | 2.61 |
| Stack | ARI | LHP at home | 2.37 | Derek Holland SFG | 109% | 2.58 |
| Stack | TOR | RHP at home | 2.37 | Jordan Zimmermann DET | 107% | 2.54 |
| Stack | MIL | LHP on road | 2.16 | Matt Harvey CIN | 114% | 2.47 |
| Stack | LAA | RHP on road | 2.28 | Kevin Gausman BAL | 107% | 2.45 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | BOS | RHP on road | 2.25 | Luis Severino NYY | 67% | 1.51 |
| Avoid | COL | RHP on road | 2.02 | Ross Stripling LAD | 75% | 1.51 |
| Avoid | SEA | RHP at home | 2.06 | Brad Keller KCR | 70% | 1.43 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.598 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | NYM | RHP on road | 1.72 | Dan Straily MIA | 113% | 1.94 |
| Stack | ARI | LHP at home | 1.81 | Derek Holland SFG | 107% | 1.94 |
| Stack | TOR | RHP at home | 1.78 | Jordan Zimmermann DET | 106% | 1.90 |
| Stack | LAA | RHP on road | 1.74 | Kevin Gausman BAL | 109% | 1.90 |
| Stack | MIL | LHP on road | 1.63 | Matt Harvey CIN | 114% | 1.85 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | COL | RHP on road | 1.53 | Ross Stripling LAD | 80% | 1.22 |
| Avoid | BOS | RHP on road | 1.71 | Luis Severino NYY | 70% | 1.20 |
| Avoid | SEA | RHP at home | 1.59 | Brad Keller KCR | 73% | 1.16 |
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