Tiers of Starting Pitching – Elite, Superstars and Studs

March 11, 2011 By Bodhizefa 10 Comments

Ladies and gentlemen, I bring you my Tiers of Starting Pitching for 2011.

This year, I’ve incorporated Defense Factors, as explained in my Team Defense Grades article, as well as Park Factors, both of which have a huge impact on pitching analysis in my opinion. The plus and minus symbols for each are from the perspective of the pitcher. A is good for the pitcher, while a is better. A is bad for the pitcher, while a is worse, and some are graded Neutral, or average. For more detail on the defense grades, check the introduction and legend in the aforementioned article.

A big thanks to FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, Baseball Reference, and my old friends at Mastersball.com and RotoJunkieFix for all their help over the years in figuring things out.

I hope these rankings help you find great fantasy value drafting your starting rotation this season. Post questions and comments below, or in the forum, as I’d be happy to discuss any of the rankings.

Tiers of SP: Elite, Superstars and Studs | Solid Gents and Upside Plays | The Rest, Sleepers and Asleep
Speculative Plays | Don’t Drink the Water

[Editor’s Note: Rankings updated March 21st.]

Tier 1: The King’s Throne

1st round talent

1. Felix Hernandez, RHP, SEA (2.27 ERA, 3.11 FIP, -0.84 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I once had a man crush on Austin Kearns, so I bought a bobblehead of him. He proceeded to suck ever since. Then I fell for Travis Hafner. He peaked soon thereafter, and then he fell off the face of the earth. I won’t be purchasing a Felix Hernandez bobblehead. You’re welcome. Long live the King.

2. Roy Halladay, RHP, PHI (2.44 ERA, 3.07 FIP, -0.63 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
He’s amazing, and he’s a helluva lot of fun to own on your team, both real and fantasy. Draft and enjoy.

Tier 1.5: The Superstars

Pitchers who have Tier 1 ability but are more likely to be Tier 2

3. Tim Lincecum, RHP, SF (3.43 ERA, 3.13 FIP, +0.30 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Right-handed pitchers are always going to find it easier to pitch in AT&T Park as it’s very difficult for left-handed hitters to hit anything over the wall in right. We miss you, Barry Bonds. In other words, even as Lincecum’s fastball has continued to decline, he’s been able to fend off a massive spike in homerun rate in part due to his home park (and in part due to the fact that he’s a fairly crafty pitcher who has continued to up his groundball rates every single year in the league). I don’t think he’s an unmitigated fantasy uber-star any longer, but he’s still an ace pitcher who you can expect to have an ERA in the high 2.00’s or low 3.00’s along with elite strikeout rates and a WHIP in the 1.10’s. I still love me some Timmah!

4. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, LAD (2.91 ERA, 3.07 FIP, -0.16 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
At 23, Kershaw is already one of the better pitchers in all of baseball, and there’s a chance he continues to improve in 2011. His control steadily improved over the course of last season (with the one blip being August) to where he was throwing a 4.57 K/BB in September. He has elite level talent and could eventually become the type of low-2’s ERA, 1.00’s WHIP, 230+ strikeout pitcher that dominates fantasy leagues. I don’t quite expect that from him in 2011, but what I do anticipate is for him to throw more innings this season allowing for 220+ strikeouts with his ERA maybe rising a tad due to increased homeruns given up against right-handers and the other stats staying pretty similar to 2010. He’s already an awesome hurler who could be one of the best 3 or 4 pitchers in baseball in the next year or two.

5. Cliff Lee, LHP, PHI (3.18 ERA, 2.63 FIP, +0.55 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
My favorite thing about Lee is that he seems more likely to walk across his lawn than walk a hitter these days. That’s a daily counter I’d love to see on ESPN’s ticker. Fantasy-wise, he’s a workhorse who will give you a low 3’s ERA, 180+ K’s, and an elite level WHIP to go with lots of Wins. The move to the NL full-time will serve him well. I’m a fan – big time.

Tier 2: The Superstars, Part Deux

6. CC Sabathia, LHP, NYY (3.18 ERA, 3.54 FIP, -0.36 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
New York’s park factor doesn’t really affect CC as much because being left-handed allows him to neutralize it a bit. And yes, I realize he’s trended downward peripherally the last couple of seasons, but I’m not too worried about it. Expect much more of the same with Sabathia as he puts up a FIP near 3.40 but likely outperforms it due to the good outfield defense for the Yankees. He’ll add 190+ strikeouts, a good WHIP, and a bevy of Wins. And hey, he’s slimmer this year, too, so you can even enjoy watching him more as he jiggles less on the mound!

7. Mat Latos, RHP, SD (2.92 ERA, 3.03 FIP, -0.11 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Latos is an elite pitching talent in an elite pitcher’s park with a good defense behind him. In other words, he’s an elite fantasy pitcher. It’s possible the Padres may put an innings cap on him, so don’t bid for more than 200 innings of production. He’s basically Jake Peavy 2.0, and I’m looking at Peavy’s 2005 season as my optimistic projection for Latos this season.

8. Justin Verlander, RHP, DET (3.37 ERA, 3.04 FIP, +0.33 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Another season with a 3.25-3.50 ERA, 1.20ish WHIP (you can go a little lower if you like here), and 215 K sounds pretty nice. Sign me up for this workhorse.

9. Jon Lester, LHP, BOS (3.25 ERA, 3.21 FIP, +0.04 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Lester’s an ace, and he’s fun to both watch and to own. He’s already a strikeout machine, he keeps the ball in the park, and he induces groundballs at a very high clip. There’s even room for improvement in his walk rate. Bid on more of the same from him in 2011 as he showed in 2010, and there’s small hope for a high 2.00’s ERA within him.

10. Josh Johnson, RHP, FLA (2.30 ERA, 2.46 FIP, -0.16 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Johnson is a certified fantasy ace at this point, but it’s tough to project him for much more than 190 innings with his injury history. Last year may also be the peak of what you could expect from him strikeout-wise, too. I lean toward him having an ERA in the very low 3.00’s, 190+ K, and a WHIP in the 1.10’s.

11. Tommy Hanson, RHP, ATL (3.33 ERA, 3.34 FIP, -0.01 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
I think he finally puts it all together this year and makes a run at 190+ K with a low 3.00’s ERA and a WHIP in the low-to-mid 1.10’s. We have a fantasy ace in the making right here.

12. Jered Weaver, RHP, LAA (3.01 ERA, 3.13 FIP, -0.12 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Weaver went out and became an ace last year which was somewhat unexpected given his stagnant growth curve. Everyone will assume regression, and they’d be right, but Bourjos in the outfield for a guy like Weaver could mean a world of difference for the likes of Weaver and his flyballing ways. Even with regression in ERA, a 3.50 ERA, an excellent mid-1.10’s WHIP, and 190 K doesn’t seem out of reach.

Tier 3: The Studs

13. David Price, LHP, TB (2.72 ERA, 3.48 FIP, -0.76 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Part of the reason David Price was able to outperform his FIP last year was because his big park and excellent defense aided him to a 1.96 ERA at home. Those factors really haven’t changed much as both project to be extremely favorable for Price in 2011. So while everyone exclaims that Price is due for a regression, note that the regression may not be as severe as everyone believes. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Price outperforming his FIP again, although more in the -0.20 to -0.30 Differential range than the -0.76 he posted last year. There’s also still a good chance that Price continues to hone his control, too, which could help offset a probable increase in his homeruns allowed. I’ve learned to trust talent in the past when it’s borderline as to how the numbers will fall. In Price’s case, he’s plenty talented. And so is that defense. I’d go pretty strong on Price in 2011.

14. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, COL (2.88 ERA, 3.08 FIP, -0.20 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Expectations have to be managed here as Ubaldo is obviously a very solid pitcher, but there’s some normalization in store for him on multiple fronts (BABIP, HR/9, and probably LOB% as well). Not to mention the fact that he’s working in an awful ballpark with what is now a mediocre to bad defense. Maybe I’m the only one who thinks Jimenez was in a little over his head last year in terms of his fantasy rate stats, but I’d rather win by being a bit too cautious with a Coors pitcher than being too cavalier. He seems likely to return to 3.25-3.50 ERA territory with low 1.20’s WHIP and 200+ K. Those are great numbers, but they’re not elite. Know the difference.

15. Chris Carpenter, RHP, STL (3.22 ERA, 3.71 FIP, -0.49 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Early injury issues this Spring remind me that Carpenter’s not getting any younger. For his career, Carpenter has been pretty much a workhorse unless he had a major injury. But I think he’s at the age where we can start to anticipate incremental drops in innings each year due to small, nagging injuries. When he’s on the field, he’s going to be vintage Carpenter, but I’d project 190 innings with anything else being extra value.

16. Dan Haren, RHP, LAA (3.91 ERA, 3.71 FIP, +0.20 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Haren’s due for a solid bounceback season as his HR/FB normalizes. And as long as Peter Bourjos is in the outfield, the Angels profile as a plus defense. He’s one of the more durable and reliable pitchers in baseball, so while he probably won’t be able to put up low-3.00 ERA’s in the AL, I’d still anticipate mid-3.00’s with plenty of K and a good WHIP in the high 1.10’s.

17. Cole Hamels, LHP, PHI (3.06 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -0.61 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
Noteworthy for Hamels in 2010 was an uptick in velocity, a large increase in strikeout rate from the past couple of seasons, and the addition of a cut fastball as a new look pitch. He’s also a pitcher who has a lot of variance from his ERA to FIP. Occasionally, there are pitchers who are able to consistently out-produce their FIP’s, and Hamels has done that three out of the last four seasons. Does that mean he’ll do it again? I have no clue. But he’s a good pitcher who you can probably count on for 180 K, a WHIP in the 1.10’s, and an ERA south of 3.50. Bid on those numbers and you’re unlikely to be disappointed. And if you happen to catch him in Spring Training, look at the velo numbers on the radar gun. The closer they are to 92+ mph on the fastball, the more confident I am that he can increase the K’s and lower the ERA from that projection.

18. Francisco Liriano, LHP, MIN (3.62 ERA, 2.73 FIP, +0.89 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
The Minnesota coaches and brass obviously aren’t in love with him for some reason, but I think it’s easy to have a man crush on this guy as a fantasy owner. He has excellent component stats, his fastball is back, and it’s always more fun loving a guy who isn’t even appreciated properly by his own team. Injury caveats apply, of course, so don’t bid on much more than 190 innings worth of production. But who doesn’t want a 3.25+ ERA, 190+ K and a WHIP in the low 1.20’s?

19. Yovani Gallardo, RHP, MIL (3.84 ERA, 3.02 FIP, +0.82 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
He’s getting better, but I wonder how much his control can continue improving. And he’s going to need it to improve with the likes of Yuniesky Betancourt and the rest of the poor defense behind him. In any case, I think he’s good for a 3.50-3.75 ERA, a 1.28-1.34 WHIP, and 200 or so strikeouts. He isn’t the most durable of pitchers, so bet on 180 innings with anything more being a bonus. He’s got upside, though, so if you’re high on him, I can understand the sentiment. But don’t forget – Yuni!

20. Matt Cain, RHP, SF (3.14 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -0.53 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Ability to Annoy Sabermetricians of Old:
Cain’s scare with his elbow this Spring was an especially stark shock considering how much of a workhorse he has become. Let’s hope it was just a bump in the road, but knock down inning projections slightly on him (to 205) as the Giants may want to make sure they protect their investment what with all the added playoff innings he tossed last year. As for his stats, I’d guess on an ERA in the low 3’s with the positive park and defense factors coupled with his anti-FIP x-factor ability extraordinaire.

21. Daniel Hudson, RHP, ARI (2.45 ERA, 3.38 FIP, -0.93 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Unfortunately, the sterling ERA after he was shipped to Arizona in the Edwin Jackson trade probably means he won’t be too much of a bargain on draft day. What I really like about Hudson is that he’s got a good means of attack versus lefties or righties. Against lefties, his change-up is an excellent offering, and that plus good command of his fastball allows him to overmatch left-handed hitters. And against righties, his delivery is a bit deceptive and allows him to eat them up high in the zone (as evidenced in his high Infield Flyball Rate against right-handed hitters). Overall upside if he’s healthy: 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 175 K. There’s downside in the HR/FB ratio, so his ERA could blimp upwards with some bad luck in the homerun department. Still, I like his approach and stuff (and defense) enough that I would bid fairly aggressively on him.

22. Wandy Rodriguez, LHP, HOU (3.60 ERA, 3.53 FIP, +0.07 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Wandy rate stats are pretty strong and steady. He’s an excellent bet to go for a 3.50-3.70 ERA, a mid 1.20’s WHIP and healthy amount of K (think 180+). I hate his nickname, but I love his steady fantasy product.

23. Max Scherzer, RHP, DET (3.50 ERA, 3.77 FIP, -0.27 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
There’s some strikeout upside in his K/9. Combine that with a probable innings increase and you have a pitcher with 200+ strikeout upside. I wouldn’t project him for much better than a 3.50 ERA or high 1.20’s WHIP just yet as he learns how to sequence his pitches better, but Scherzer is a solid play this year.

24. Roy Oswalt, RHP, PHI (2.76 ERA, 3.32 FIP, -0.56 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
I expect him to veer more into the mid-3.00’s with his ERA this year with a WHIP closer to 1.20 than 1.00 and 175 K instead of 190. But he’s still a fine pitcher to own on a fantasy team, and the Phillies should provide him with a few more Wins than he’s been accustomed to in the last couple of years.

25. Chad Billingsley, RHP, LAD (3.57 ERA, 3.04 FIP, +0.53 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Lost a bit behind the Kershaw breakout was a nice improvement by Chad Billingsley. His BB/9 moved closer to 3 than 4 for the first time in his career, and his FIP dipped noticeably because of it. There’s some noise in a lot of his peripheral numbers, but the short of it is that he could probably produce a similar ERA this year compared to last year’s even while seeing an increase in his FIP to the mid-3’s. In other words, bid on repeat numbers as last year from Bills. He’s even got a bit of upside in strikeouts.

26. Shaun Marcum, RHP, MIL (3.64 ERA, 3.77 FIP, -0.13 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
The shift to the NL should help him navigate the downgrade in defense behind him. He’s an underrated fantasy asset at this point with high-3’s ERA potential to go along with a good WHIP (low 1.20’s), 165+ K, and a healthy amount of Wins.

27. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SF (3.00 ERA, 3.68 FIP, -0.68 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He displayed great control as a rookie (2.11 BB/9), he can strike hitters out at an above average clip (6.97 K/9 last year), and he has an excellent defense helping him out. I think you can probably expect an ERA in the 3.30-3.50 range, a WHIP in the high 1.10’s or low 1.20’s, and 150+ K. He’s for real, and I like him quite a bit in 2011.

28. Colby Lewis, RHP, TEX (3.72 ERA, 3.62 FIP, +0.10 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I’m a fan. He’s a better pitcher than C.J. Wilson, at least in terms of fantasy potential, as he should provide more K’s and a better WHIP while posting a similar ERA. I expect some regression as his BABIP normalizes a bit, but the excellent defense in Texas will mitigate that a bit. A similar ERA with a bit of a higher WHIP (think something in the mid-to-high 1.20’s) and 180+ strikeouts sounds like a really solid investment to me.

29. Clay Buchholz, RHP, BOS (2.33 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -1.34 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
A rise in ERA due to HR/9 and BABIP regressions is a given. Still, he’s a solid bet to outperform his FIP due to the good defense in Boston, and he’s got a good enough groundball ratio to keep his HR/9 better than average. A mid-to-high 3’s ERA along with a healthy 150+ K’s is probably in order. Just be wary of those that expect even better, and allow them to overbid on him if they want.

30. Brett Anderson, LHP, OAK (2.80 ERA, 3.24 FIP, -0.44 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Anderson is still much the same in terms of how I think about him now versus last year at this time – which is to say quite positive – only now he comes with the caveat of being an injury risk. I’ve seen him fall in a number of drafts, though, so I believe there’s a great opportunity for a value buy on him in 2011. He still has very good groundball ratios and control (the 1.76 BB/9 last year was an eye-popper), and while his strikeouts dipped in 2010 in his limited time on the mound, I expect that to loft back up a bit as his stuff was never discernibly hampered by his injuries. He has a great defense behind him, and Oakland’s coliseum plays a lot bigger for southpaws than it does for righties (meaning the park is close to a + + factor for lefty pitchers). In other words, Anderson has a lot going for him, and I would have him at the top of my sleeper list this season. I could easily see Anderson out-earning a guy like Brandon Morrow, for example, despite Morrow going a couple of rounds earlier in ADP thus far into the pre-season.

Solid Gents and Upside Plays »»

Double Dipping Two-Start Pitchers, Week 23

September 6, 2010 By Rick Leave a Comment

The San Diego Padres are finally playing like we expected them to play this season. Going into Monday, The Friars have dropped ten straight games are holding a very slim one game lead. This might be the end of their magical run but Cinderella has four more weeks to dance if they can regain their winning ways.

Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers and Cincinnati Reds are pulling away in their respective division races. Watch these clubs to rest starters from time to time to keep them fresh for October.

Teams out of the playoff hunt are busy calling up prospects to give them a little Major League exposure, meaning veterans will sit to give the youngsters a chance to play. You’ll want to watch your players closely to avoid too many missed starts.

This week, all teams are scheduled to play at least six games while Chicago (AL), Detroit, Texas, Toronto, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Colorado, Florida, Houston, Los Angeles (NL), Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, and St. Louis are all on the docket for seven. The Phillies and Marlins play a doubleheader on Monday.

Now, the projected 2-start pitchers for this week. For those of you in leagues who require you to set your lineup at the beginning of the week, these are guys you should strongly consider:

American League
BAL	Brian Matusz
BOS	Jon Lester
CWS	Edwin Jackson, Freddy Garcia
CLE	Carlos Carrasco
DET	Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander
KC	Sean O’Sullivan
LAA	Dan Haren
MIN	Kevin Slowey
NYY	A.J. Burnett
OAK	Brett Anderson
SEA	Jason Vargas
TB	Jeff Niemann
TEX	Tommy Hunter, Rich Harden
TOR	Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum

National League
ARI	Ian Kennedy
ATL	Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson
CHC	Casey Coleman
CIN	Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto
COL	Ubaldo Jimenez, Jhoulys Chacin
FLA	Adalberto Mendez, Anibal Sanchez
HOU	Wandy Rodriguez, Nelson Figueroa
LAD	Vicente Padilla, Clayton Kershaw
MIL	Yovani Gallardo
NYM	Mike Pelfrey
PHI	Vance Worley, Roy Oswalt
PIT	Brian Burres
SD	Mat Latos, Kevin Correia
SF	Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum
STL	Jake Westbrook, Kyle Lohse
WAS	Jordan Zimmermann

Rick’s Picks
Five best bets for double-start pitchers this week

1. Mat Latos is the San Diego ace, whether the team likes it or not. He’s very young and very talented and gets two home games against division foes Los Angeles and San Francisco. Two wins for the youngster could thrust the Friars back into the playoff chase.

2. Tim Hudson gets a weak Pirates squad in Pittsburgh and then a suddenly slumping St. Louis team at home. Even though there is room for trouble in each game, Hudson has been too dominant this season and this should be a good week for him.

3. Dan Haren will host the Indians and Athletics this week. With the Angels all but out of the playoff hunt, they are playing for pride. That shouldn’t stop Haren from having a big week.

4. Kevin Slowey has had an up and down season, but still has a lot of talent. With the Twins trying to pull away in the division, Slowey gets the Royals at home and the Indians in Cleveland. Looks like a great opportunity to right himself before the playoff start.

5. Vance Worley is up and is trying to make an impression. A home start against Florida and a road start in New York should give him a great opportunity to do that. With the Phillies offense heating up, this kid should get all the run support he needs to shut down two teams playing out the string

Fantasy Baseball Journal—Pitching Staff Review

April 26, 2010 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

After taking two days to review the hitters for my fantasy team in the 15-team, 5X5 roto mixed league, it is time to take a look at my pitching staff.

The pitchers have been better than the hitters, that much is clear, but still not stellar. Early on my ERA and WHIP were miniscule, but John Lackey got roughed up in his last start, Dan Haren’s ERA is up over 5.00 and Chris Perez got roughed up by the Tigers back on April 11th.

As of writing this, my overall pitching is 6th in the league, and fairly consistent in the categories across the board—6th in W and WHIP, 7th in Saves and ERA, and 8th in K.

We start 9 pitchers in this league, with no restrictions on starters versus relievers. The first reliever I drafted was Heath Bell in the 8th round, and then I pretty much avoided relievers until late, so I’ve got a bunch of starters, a couple closers and a couple of middle relievers. I’ll comment on the starters first.

Dan Haren—I chuckle at the most recent CBS (where the league is hosted) player note on Haren, saying, “Haren batting better than pitching.” Funny, or… not, for my ace I drafted in the 3rd round. The comment came on the heels of Haren getting 4 hits in a game against the Cardinals. He gave up 7 runs and 9 hits through 6 innings, so the tagline fits.

Haren started the season with a solid 7 inning performance, 1 ER, 3 H and no walks for the win, but only 4 K. His next three starts the K numbers are there—9, 7 and 8—but the ERA and WHIP are notably worse than expectations, including 5 HR allowed in those 3 games.

No doubt he continues to start for me, but he’s raised a eyebrow of concern at this point.

John Lackey—Lackey started the season better than team mates Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, but took it on the chin in his third start against the Rays, which was the final game of the Sox’ recent five game losing streak. Lackey lasted just 3-1/3 innings, giving up 8 runs on 9 hits and a walk, causing his, and my, ERA and WHIP to skyrocket.

This one also gets chalked up as hopefully a blip, facing a hot Rays team at the time. Based on the projected pitchers, it looks like Lackey will skip the Toronto series giving him a fair bit of rest to face the Orioles in their series opener. That should be a decent matchup for him.

Aaron Harang—Now here is a guy, also invested with a not insignificant pick in the draft, 13th round, but his performance has my patience wearing thin. In fact, he rode the bench this past week for me and it is a good thing considering his last start against Florida resulted in 6 ER, 10 H, 2 BB and only 2 K in 5 -2/3 innings. Yes, he got the loss.

Now reports indicate the Reds might skip Harang’s next start, presumably because they don’t know what to do with him either. Harang is a drop to waivers candidate for me this week unless I have other better candidates (or not enough quality targets), in which case Harang can hang around on my bench for a little bit while he tries to work out his issues.

Tim Hudson—I’ve been pretty happy with Hudson, drafted in the round following Harang, even though his record is just 1-1 so far. His last start he only gave up 2 runs but faced off against Roy Halladay who pitched a shutout. Similarly in his first start, Hudson allowed just 2 R, but Billy Wagner blew the save in the ninth.

Hudson isn’t going to help my K numbers but if he can stay efficient the wins will come along with a healthy ERA and WHIP.

Andy Pettitte—Here is another pitcher where I catch myself on draft day saying, “Really? I’m drafting Andy Pettitte?” Yes I am. Pettitte is 2-0 through 3 starts with 14 K, a 1.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Nothing to argue about there, especially from an 18th round draft pick. He’s older than I am by a few months, so yes, I need to keep in my mind not to expect numbers this good all season. Right now I’ll take it though.

Shaun Marcum—I targeted Marcum in the draft, and yes, most of that had to do with the Blue Jays fan in me rather than an unbiased fantasy view. I thought I hit gold after his first start which was solid even though he got a no decision. My enthusiasm is now tempered a bit as he’s given up more hits in his next three starts, and remains winless. He still looks pretty good though. A little more run support when he is on the mound would be a welcome sight.

Justin Duchscherer—As I go on here it would seem my later drafted starting pitchers are outperforming my earlier drafted pitchers by a fair bit. That is just a little more anecdotal evidence to not draft pitchers early.

Duchscherer (or Duch, since typing his full name feels like my fingers have a stutter), gave up 5 ER in his first start but came back with two consecutive games allowing no ER, earning one win and one no decision. His ERA is 2.41 and WHIP down at 1.18. I’m happy with that. I’m not predicting return to All-Star status for Duch just yet, but I’m happy.

C.J. Wilson—I dropped Jon Garland after the first week to acquire Wilson, based on advice from Razzball.com, a highly recommended website for equal parts baseball insight and entertainment, which is a hard combination to find these days.

Wilson earned me a win with his 6 2/3, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K, shutout performance against the Red Sox. He’s had 3 solid starts on the season. That is the kind of surprise undrafted player why we shouldn’t fall asleep at the wheel early in the season, so we can grab him before another team does. Thanks Razzball.

Heath Bell—Now on to the closers. Bell is doing what is expected of him, earning his 4th save of the year Tuesday in 6 appearances. The Padres don’t have a lot of pop in their bat, giving Bell the opportunities with close games, but not much room for error.

He’s given up 1 ER in two of his appearances, one of them resulting in a blown save. His ERA is an even 3.00 and WHIP 1.67, plus he picked up a W along the way. Considering my lack of depth at closer, I’ve got to keep my fingers crossed Bell is in for the long haul.

Chris Perez—Perez earned the closer spot earlier than expected due to an injury to Kerry Wood. I grabbed Perez in the 15th round of the draft, which was probably a bit early. It was one I was confident in though because I owned Wood last year, and didn’t like what I saw (or remembered?). Given the positive reports on Perez, I felt good even before the injury to Wood that Perez would become the guy.

Now, it may have in fact been more beneficial for Perez’ development if he didn’t have to start closing games so soon this season. He had a rough game to the point reports indicated Perez was on a short leash. Luckily, he bounced back nicely from that and it up to 4 Saves, with a 4.76 ERA and 1.76 WHIP.

There is still no definitive timetable when Wood is coming back, but I need to troll for saves regardless of losing Perez in that role or not.

George Sherrill—Sherrill has been terrible. I would have been better off with an open spot in my starting lineup than having Sherrill in there, and fortunately, Sherrill hasn’t been in the starting lineup for this league. The other league where we value Holds is another story, unfortunately.

Sherrill could be replaced in the setup role by Ramon Troncoso. The only reason to hold Sherrill, or grab Troncoso, would be as a lottery ticket in case the Dodgers’ closer Jonathan Broxton goes down with injury. Put money on the fact Sherrill will be hitting the skids in our next FAAB.

Sergio Romo—Romo was a near last round draft pick who hasn’t been inserted in the starting lineup yet, and probably won’t be anytime soon. Another waiver candidate if I can find a better upside replacement for his roster spot.

Mark Hendrickson—Ditto Romo, except Hendrickson was my final round draft pick. I should have gone with some more hitters in the draft.