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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Friday September 28

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Atlanta Braves are facing a RHP on road (Jerad Eickhoff PHI who has faced 11 batters). On FanDuel the Braves are currently putting up 2.11 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and Jerad Eickhoff is currently allowing 148% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.12 (2.11 x 148%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Braves RHP on road Jerad Eickhoff PHI 11 2.11 x 148% 3.12 +1.01 1.62 x 152% 2.46 +0.84
Astros RHP on road David Hess BAL 428 2.30 x 121% 2.79 +0.49 1.73 x 120% 2.08 +0.35
Twins RHP at home Lucas Giolito CHW 762 2.34 x 118% 2.77 +0.42 1.77 x 114% 2.02 +0.25
Brewers RHP at home Jordan Zimmermann DET 535 2.27 x 113% 2.57 +0.30 1.72 x 114% 1.96 +0.24
Rockies RHP at home Joe Ross WSN 48 2.47 x 102% 2.51 +0.04 1.88 x 101% 1.89 +0.01
Mariners LHP at home Martin Perez TEX 387 1.85 x 131% 2.42 +0.57 1.44 x 131% 1.89 +0.45
Yankees LHP on road Brian Johnson BOS 420 2.30 x 105% 2.40 +0.11 1.74 x 106% 1.84 +0.10
Indians RHP on road Ian Kennedy KCR 493 2.17 x 110% 2.39 +0.22 1.66 x 110% 1.82 +0.17
White Sox RHP on road Chase De Jong MIN 52 2.03 x 116% 2.36 +0.33 1.56 x 117% 1.82 +0.26
Red Sox LHP at home J.A. Happ NYY 709 2.49 x 95% 2.35 -0.13 1.86 x 95% 1.76 -0.10
Athletics RHP on road Jaime Barria LAA 518 2.44 x 95% 2.32 -0.12 1.85 x 96% 1.78 -0.07
Marlins RHP on road Corey Oswalt NYM 264 1.90 x 122% 2.32 +0.42 1.46 x 121% 1.77 +0.31
Diamondbacks LHP on road Eric Lauer SDP 477 2.07 x 109% 2.27 +0.19 1.58 x 110% 1.74 +0.15
Angels RHP at home Mike Fiers OAK 696 2.34 x 95% 2.22 -0.12 1.77 x 97% 1.72 -0.05
Blue Jays RHP on road Tyler Glasnow TBR 443 2.08 x 98% 2.04 -0.04 1.58 x 96% 1.52 -0.07
Rays LHP at home Thomas Pannone TOR 155 2.12 x 94% 1.99 -0.13 1.61 x 94% 1.52 -0.09
Tigers RHP on road Zach Davies MIL 263 1.79 x 107% 1.92 +0.13 1.39 x 107% 1.49 +0.10
Dodgers LHP on road Madison Bumgarner SFG 525 2.14 x 90% 1.92 -0.22 1.62 x 91% 1.47 -0.15
Royals RHP at home Mike Clevinger CLE 787 2.14 x 88% 1.88 -0.26 1.65 x 89% 1.46 -0.19
Mets RHP at home Jose Urena MIA 688 1.93 x 94% 1.82 -0.11 1.47 x 95% 1.39 -0.08
Phillies RHP at home Mike Foltynewicz ATL 727 2.20 x 83% 1.82 -0.38 1.66 x 83% 1.38 -0.29
Orioles RHP at home Gerrit Cole HOU 776 2.15 x 81% 1.75 -0.40 1.64 x 81% 1.33 -0.31
Padres LHP at home Patrick Corbin ARI 782 2.12 x 81% 1.73 -0.39 1.60 x 82% 1.32 -0.28
Rangers LHP on road Wade LeBlanc SEA 639 1.67 x 97% 1.61 -0.06 1.29 x 98% 1.26 -0.03
Nationals LHP on road Kyle Freeland COL 815 1.96 x 81% 1.59 -0.38 1.48 x 83% 1.23 -0.25
Giants LHP at home Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD 302 1.94 x 78% 1.51 -0.43 1.50 x 81% 1.22 -0.28

Other Games (Not Main Slate)

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Reds RHP at home Nick Kingham PIT 322 2.16 x 121% 2.60 +0.45 1.64 x 119% 1.94 +0.30
Pirates RHP on road Anthony DeSclafani CIN 465 2.10 x 115% 2.42 +0.32 1.61 x 115% 1.85 +0.24
Twins RHP at home Reynaldo Lopez CHW 773 2.34 x 99% 2.32 -0.03 1.77 x 98% 1.74 -0.03
Cubs RHP at home Adam Wainwright STL 159 2.15 x 98% 2.11 -0.04 1.64 x 98% 1.61 -0.03
Cardinals RHP on road Kyle Hendricks CHC 779 2.21 x 91% 2.02 -0.19 1.68 x 93% 1.56 -0.12
White Sox RHP on road Jose Berrios MIN 770 2.03 x 93% 1.89 -0.15 1.56 x 93% 1.44 -0.11

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Thursday September 27

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Kansas City Royals are facing a RHP at home (Josh Tomlin CLE who has faced 302 batters). On FanDuel the Royals are currently putting up 2.15 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Josh Tomlin is currently allowing 142% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.06 (2.15 x 142%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Royals RHP at home Josh Tomlin CLE 302 2.15 x 142% 3.06 +0.91 1.65 x 142% 2.35 +0.70
Braves LHP on road Jason Vargas NYM 380 2.32 x 125% 2.90 +0.58 1.79 x 124% 2.22 +0.43
Astros RHP on road David Hess BAL 428 2.30 x 121% 2.79 +0.49 1.73 x 120% 2.08 +0.35
Twins RHP at home Francisco Liriano DET 573 2.34 x 113% 2.64 +0.30 1.77 x 111% 1.95 +0.19
Mariners RHP at home Ariel Jurado TEX 221 1.98 x 127% 2.52 +0.54 1.53 x 127% 1.94 +0.41
Indians RHP on road Glenn Sparkman KCR 156 2.19 x 111% 2.44 +0.25 1.67 x 112% 1.87 +0.21
Pirates LHP on road Jon Lester CHC 736 2.19 x 97% 2.12 -0.07 1.67 x 98% 1.64 -0.03
Tigers TBD on road TBD/Bullpen MIN – 1.87 x 100% 1.87 +0.00 1.45 x 100% 1.45 +0.00
Mets RHP at home Julio Teheran ATL 702 1.92 x 98% 1.89 -0.04 1.47 x 96% 1.40 -0.07
Cubs RHP at home Trevor Williams PIT 677 2.15 x 85% 1.82 -0.33 1.64 x 86% 1.40 -0.23
Orioles RHP at home Gerrit Cole HOU 776 2.15 x 81% 1.75 -0.40 1.64 x 81% 1.33 -0.31
Rangers LHP on road Marco Gonzales SEA 668 1.69 x 99% 1.66 -0.02 1.30 x 100% 1.31 +0.01

Other Games (Not Main Slate)

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Rockies RHP at home Jake Arrieta PHI 698 2.46 x 103% 2.53 +0.07 1.87 x 102% 1.91 +0.04
Yankees TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 2.19 x 100% 2.19 +0.00 1.65 x 100% 1.65 +0.00
Rays LHP at home CC Sabathia NYY 647 2.16 x 98% 2.13 -0.04 1.65 x 99% 1.63 -0.02
Phillies RHP on road Antonio Senzatela COL 368 1.99 x 103% 2.05 +0.07 1.52 x 104% 1.58 +0.06

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Wednesday September 26

By Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Oakland Athletics are facing a RHP on road (Felix Hernandez SEA who has faced 666 batters). On FanDuel the Athletics are currently putting up 2.42 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and Felix Hernandez is currently allowing 118% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.86 (2.42 x 118%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Athletics RHP on road Felix Hernandez SEA 666 2.42 x 118% 2.86 +0.44 1.84 x 116% 2.13 +0.29
Giants RHP at home Luis Perdomo SDP 207 1.99 x 135% 2.68 +0.69 1.52 x 132% 2.01 +0.49
Rockies RHP at home Nick Pivetta PHI 672 2.41 x 103% 2.49 +0.08 1.83 x 103% 1.90 +0.06
Red Sox TBD at home TBD/Bullpen BAL – 2.49 x 100% 2.49 +0.00 1.89 x 100% 1.89 +0.00
White Sox RHP at home Shane Bieber CLE 463 2.10 x 112% 2.35 +0.25 1.61 x 113% 1.82 +0.21
Cubs RHP at home Ivan Nova PIT 661 2.14 x 104% 2.23 +0.09 1.63 x 106% 1.72 +0.09
Twins LHP at home Matt Boyd DET – 2.24 x 100% 2.24 +0.00 1.70 x 100% 1.70 +0.00
Yankees TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 2.19 x 100% 2.19 +0.00 1.65 x 100% 1.65 +0.00
Pirates LHP on road Jose Quintana CHC 701 2.15 x 101% 2.17 +0.02 1.64 x 101% 1.65 +0.01
Indians TBD on road TBD/Bullpen CHW – 2.13 x 100% 2.13 +0.00 1.63 x 100% 1.63 +0.00
Dodgers RHP on road Zack Greinke ARI 812 2.40 x 88% 2.12 -0.28 1.81 x 90% 1.62 -0.18
Angels LHP at home Yohander Mendez TEX 98 1.74 x 123% 2.13 +0.39 1.34 x 120% 1.60 +0.26
Rays RHP at home Masahiro Tanaka NYY 615 2.09 x 96% 2.01 -0.09 1.60 x 97% 1.55 -0.05
Padres RHP on road Casey Kelly SFG 83 1.90 x 102% 1.95 +0.04 1.47 x 106% 1.56 +0.09
Brewers RHP on road John Gant STL 468 2.11 x 94% 1.98 -0.13 1.62 x 92% 1.49 -0.13
Cubs RHP at home Jhoulys Chacin MIL 760 2.14 x 92% 1.96 -0.18 1.63 x 91% 1.48 -0.15
Phillies RHP on road German Marquez COL 771 2.00 x 97% 1.93 -0.07 1.53 x 97% 1.49 -0.04
Tigers RHP on road Jake Odorizzi MIN 692 1.80 x 104% 1.88 +0.08 1.40 x 103% 1.43 +0.04
Mariners RHP at home Edwin Jackson OAK 358 1.99 x 92% 1.83 -0.15 1.53 x 92% 1.41 -0.12
Diamondbacks RHP at home Ross Stripling LAD 491 2.04 x 87% 1.78 -0.26 1.54 x 91% 1.40 -0.14
Rangers LHP on road Andrew Heaney LAA 721 1.68 x 102% 1.72 +0.03 1.29 x 102% 1.32 +0.03
Mets LHP at home Sean Newcomb ATL 673 1.69 x 97% 1.64 -0.05 1.30 x 96% 1.25 -0.05
Braves RHP on road Jacob deGrom NYM 810 2.14 x 64% 1.37 -0.77 1.63 x 67% 1.09 -0.54
Orioles LHP on road Chris Sale BOS 595 1.58 x 64% 1.01 -0.56 1.25 x 66% 0.82 -0.42

Other Games (Not Main Slate)

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Astros RHP on road Sean Reid-Foley TOR 138 2.32 x 128% 2.96 +0.64 1.75 x 123% 2.16 +0.41
Red Sox TBD at home TBD/Bullpen BAL – 2.49 x 100% 2.49 +0.00 1.89 x 100% 1.89 +0.00
Nationals LHP at home Wei-Yin Chen MIA 550 2.35 x 107% 2.50 +0.15 1.77 x 106% 1.87 +0.10
Reds RHP at home Heath Fillmyer KCR 317 2.17 x 104% 2.27 +0.10 1.65 x 104% 1.72 +0.07
Blue Jays TBD at home TBD/Bullpen HOU – 2.25 x 100% 2.25 +0.00 1.71 x 100% 1.71 +0.00
Marlins TBD on road TBD/Bullpen WSN – 1.93 x 100% 1.93 +0.00 1.49 x 100% 1.49 +0.00
Royals LHP on road Cody Reed CIN 170 1.77 x 93% 1.64 -0.13 1.37 x 94% 1.28 -0.08
Orioles LHP on road David Price BOS 699 1.58 x 93% 1.46 -0.12 1.25 x 93% 1.16 -0.08
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