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Stack #2
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Stack #3
Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.
My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
How to Read the Charts
The Diamondbacks are facing a RHP on road and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.05 FanDuel and 1.54 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is Felix Pena LAA and he is currently allowing 195% more ppa in FanDuel and 197% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.09 on FanDuel and 1.60 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.05 x 195% in FanDuel and 1.54 x 197% in DraftKings.
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.09 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | ARI | RHP on road | 2.05 | Felix Pena LAA | 195% | 3.99 |
| Stack | CHC | LHP at home | 2.80 | Rich Hill LAD | 136% | 3.81 |
| Stack | COL | LHP at home | 2.39 | Jason Vargas NYM | 138% | 3.30 |
| Stack | SDP | RHP at home | 1.94 | Paul Blackburn OAK | 169% | 3.28 |
| Stack | ATL | LHP on road | 2.44 | Jaime Garcia TOR | 126% | 3.07 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | MIN | LHP at home | 1.82 | Chris Sale BOS | 78% | 1.42 |
| Avoid | TBR | RHP on road | 1.84 | Justin Verlander HOU | 62% | 1.13 |
| Avoid | BAL | RHP on road | 1.79 | Jefry Rodriguez WSN | 60% | 1.08 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.60 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | ARI | RHP on road | 1.54 | Felix Pena LAA | 197% | 3.04 |
| Stack | CHC | LHP at home | 2.10 | Rich Hill LAD | 134% | 2.83 |
| Stack | COL | LHP at home | 1.83 | Jason Vargas NYM | 137% | 2.50 |
| Stack | SDP | RHP at home | 1.48 | Paul Blackburn OAK | 164% | 2.42 |
| Stack | ATL | LHP on road | 1.88 | Jaime Garcia TOR | 123% | 2.32 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | MIN | LHP at home | 1.40 | Chris Sale BOS | 79% | 1.11 |
| Avoid | TBR | RHP on road | 1.43 | Justin Verlander HOU | 63% | 0.90 |
| Avoid | BAL | RHP on road | 1.38 | Jefry Rodriguez WSN | 66% | 0.91 |
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