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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Wednesday September 26

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Oakland Athletics are facing a RHP on road (Felix Hernandez SEA who has faced 666 batters). On FanDuel the Athletics are currently putting up 2.42 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and Felix Hernandez is currently allowing 118% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.86 (2.42 x 118%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Athletics RHP on road Felix Hernandez SEA 666 2.42 x 118% 2.86 +0.44 1.84 x 116% 2.13 +0.29
Giants RHP at home Luis Perdomo SDP 207 1.99 x 135% 2.68 +0.69 1.52 x 132% 2.01 +0.49
Rockies RHP at home Nick Pivetta PHI 672 2.41 x 103% 2.49 +0.08 1.83 x 103% 1.90 +0.06
Red Sox TBD at home TBD/Bullpen BAL – 2.49 x 100% 2.49 +0.00 1.89 x 100% 1.89 +0.00
White Sox RHP at home Shane Bieber CLE 463 2.10 x 112% 2.35 +0.25 1.61 x 113% 1.82 +0.21
Cubs RHP at home Ivan Nova PIT 661 2.14 x 104% 2.23 +0.09 1.63 x 106% 1.72 +0.09
Twins LHP at home Matt Boyd DET – 2.24 x 100% 2.24 +0.00 1.70 x 100% 1.70 +0.00
Yankees TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 2.19 x 100% 2.19 +0.00 1.65 x 100% 1.65 +0.00
Pirates LHP on road Jose Quintana CHC 701 2.15 x 101% 2.17 +0.02 1.64 x 101% 1.65 +0.01
Indians TBD on road TBD/Bullpen CHW – 2.13 x 100% 2.13 +0.00 1.63 x 100% 1.63 +0.00
Dodgers RHP on road Zack Greinke ARI 812 2.40 x 88% 2.12 -0.28 1.81 x 90% 1.62 -0.18
Angels LHP at home Yohander Mendez TEX 98 1.74 x 123% 2.13 +0.39 1.34 x 120% 1.60 +0.26
Rays RHP at home Masahiro Tanaka NYY 615 2.09 x 96% 2.01 -0.09 1.60 x 97% 1.55 -0.05
Padres RHP on road Casey Kelly SFG 83 1.90 x 102% 1.95 +0.04 1.47 x 106% 1.56 +0.09
Brewers RHP on road John Gant STL 468 2.11 x 94% 1.98 -0.13 1.62 x 92% 1.49 -0.13
Cubs RHP at home Jhoulys Chacin MIL 760 2.14 x 92% 1.96 -0.18 1.63 x 91% 1.48 -0.15
Phillies RHP on road German Marquez COL 771 2.00 x 97% 1.93 -0.07 1.53 x 97% 1.49 -0.04
Tigers RHP on road Jake Odorizzi MIN 692 1.80 x 104% 1.88 +0.08 1.40 x 103% 1.43 +0.04
Mariners RHP at home Edwin Jackson OAK 358 1.99 x 92% 1.83 -0.15 1.53 x 92% 1.41 -0.12
Diamondbacks RHP at home Ross Stripling LAD 491 2.04 x 87% 1.78 -0.26 1.54 x 91% 1.40 -0.14
Rangers LHP on road Andrew Heaney LAA 721 1.68 x 102% 1.72 +0.03 1.29 x 102% 1.32 +0.03
Mets LHP at home Sean Newcomb ATL 673 1.69 x 97% 1.64 -0.05 1.30 x 96% 1.25 -0.05
Braves RHP on road Jacob deGrom NYM 810 2.14 x 64% 1.37 -0.77 1.63 x 67% 1.09 -0.54
Orioles LHP on road Chris Sale BOS 595 1.58 x 64% 1.01 -0.56 1.25 x 66% 0.82 -0.42

Other Games (Not Main Slate)

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Astros RHP on road Sean Reid-Foley TOR 138 2.32 x 128% 2.96 +0.64 1.75 x 123% 2.16 +0.41
Red Sox TBD at home TBD/Bullpen BAL – 2.49 x 100% 2.49 +0.00 1.89 x 100% 1.89 +0.00
Nationals LHP at home Wei-Yin Chen MIA 550 2.35 x 107% 2.50 +0.15 1.77 x 106% 1.87 +0.10
Reds RHP at home Heath Fillmyer KCR 317 2.17 x 104% 2.27 +0.10 1.65 x 104% 1.72 +0.07
Blue Jays TBD at home TBD/Bullpen HOU – 2.25 x 100% 2.25 +0.00 1.71 x 100% 1.71 +0.00
Marlins TBD on road TBD/Bullpen WSN – 1.93 x 100% 1.93 +0.00 1.49 x 100% 1.49 +0.00
Royals LHP on road Cody Reed CIN 170 1.77 x 93% 1.64 -0.13 1.37 x 94% 1.28 -0.08
Orioles LHP on road David Price BOS 699 1.58 x 93% 1.46 -0.12 1.25 x 93% 1.16 -0.08

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Wednesday September 5

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Pittsburgh Pirates are facing a RHP at home (Homer Bailey CIN who has faced 473 batters). On FanDuel the Pirates are currently putting up 2.05 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Homer Bailey is currently allowing 134% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.74 (2.05 x 134%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Pirates RHP at home Homer Bailey CIN 473 2.05 x 134% 2.74 +0.69 1.57 x 133% 2.09 +0.52
Rockies LHP at home Andrew Suarez SFG 548 2.62 x 104% 2.71 +0.10 2.00 x 105% 2.10 +0.10
Angels RHP on road Bartolo Colon TEX 596 2.17 x 122% 2.66 +0.49 1.66 x 123% 2.04 +0.38
White Sox RHP at home Jordan Zimmermann DET 451 2.17 x 112% 2.44 +0.27 1.67 x 114% 1.89 +0.23
Mariners RHP at home Andrew Cashner BAL 643 2.01 x 116% 2.34 +0.32 1.56 x 115% 1.80 +0.24
Rangers RHP at home Jaime Barria LAA 441 2.38 x 94% 2.25 -0.13 1.78 x 96% 1.72 -0.07
Astros RHP at home Jake Odorizzi MIN 619 2.09 x 107% 2.22 +0.14 1.58 x 105% 1.66 +0.08
Rays RHP on road Aaron Sanchez TOR 404 2.00 x 109% 2.18 +0.19 1.54 x 107% 1.66 +0.11
Blue Jays RHP at home Tyler Glasnow TBR 358 2.29 x 95% 2.18 -0.11 1.74 x 93% 1.61 -0.13
Brewers LHP at home Jose Quintana CHC 602 2.07 x 103% 2.13 +0.06 1.57 x 102% 1.61 +0.04
Yankees RHP on road Mike Fiers OAK 609 2.18 x 96% 2.10 -0.08 1.64 x 99% 1.63 -0.02
Cardinals RHP on road Tanner Roark WSN 691 2.18 x 96% 2.10 -0.08 1.66 x 97% 1.61 -0.05
Orioles RHP on road Mike Leake SEA 692 1.91 x 105% 2.00 +0.10 1.47 x 107% 1.57 +0.10
Marlins RHP at home Nick Pivetta PHI 596 1.81 x 106% 1.92 +0.10 1.41 x 106% 1.49 +0.08
Cubs RHP on road Jhoulys Chacin MIL 685 2.16 x 89% 1.93 -0.23 1.66 x 89% 1.47 -0.18
Giants RHP on road Antonio Senzatela COL 273 1.79 x 106% 1.89 +0.10 1.40 x 105% 1.47 +0.07
Nationals RHP at home Miles Mikolas STL 677 2.27 x 81% 1.84 -0.43 1.72 x 84% 1.45 -0.27
Dodgers RHP at home Zack Wheeler NYM 662 2.25 x 82% 1.85 -0.40 1.70 x 83% 1.42 -0.28
Athletics RHP at home Luis Severino NYY 694 2.06 x 89% 1.83 -0.23 1.57 x 90% 1.42 -0.15
Reds RHP on road Jameson Taillon PIT 657 2.01 x 89% 1.80 -0.21 1.54 x 92% 1.41 -0.13
Phillies RHP on road Sandy Alcantara MIA 21 2.05 x 83% 1.69 -0.36 1.56 x 80% 1.24 -0.32
Mets LHP on road Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD 206 1.96 x 76% 1.49 -0.47 1.50 x 78% 1.17 -0.33
Tigers RHP on road Michael Kopech CHW 48 1.77 x 51% 0.90 -0.87 1.38 x 58% 0.80 -0.58
Twins LHP on road Framber Valdez HOU 58 1.81 x 48% 0.87 -0.94 1.38 x 47% 0.65 -0.73

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Indians RHP at home Brad Keller KCR 468 2.48 x 85% 2.10 -0.38 1.86 x 87% 1.61 -0.25
Braves RHP at home Hector Velazquez BOS 317 2.15 x 93% 2.00 -0.15 1.63 x 96% 1.57 -0.06
Red Sox RHP on road Mike Foltynewicz ATL 623 2.36 x 84% 1.98 -0.39 1.78 x 84% 1.50 -0.29
Royals RHP on road Corey Kluber CLE 723 1.99 x 82% 1.63 -0.35 1.53 x 84% 1.29 -0.24

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Friday August 31

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Texas Rangers are facing a LHP at home (Stephen Gonsalves MIN who has faced 36 batters). On FanDuel the Rangers are currently putting up 2.44 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP at home and Stephen Gonsalves is currently allowing 169% more PPA than the MLB average (2.118 PPA). Their modified PPA is 4.11 (2.44 x 169%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Rangers LHP at home Stephen Gonsalves MIN 36 2.44 x 169% 4.11 +1.67 1.84 x 167% 3.07 +1.23
Rockies RHP on road Brett Kennedy SDP 93 2.02 x 147% 2.97 +0.95 1.53 x 149% 2.28 +0.75
Yankees RHP at home Jordan Zimmermann DET 428 2.56 x 111% 2.84 +0.29 1.92 x 113% 2.17 +0.25
Cardinals RHP at home Homer Bailey CIN 446 2.01 x 130% 2.62 +0.61 1.54 x 130% 2.00 +0.46
Twins RHP on road Drew Hutchison TEX 178 2.01 x 129% 2.60 +0.59 1.53 x 127% 1.94 +0.41
Indians RHP at home Tyler Glasnow TBR 334 2.51 x 98% 2.47 -0.04 1.89 x 96% 1.80 -0.08
Phillies LHP at home Jose Quintana CHC 581 2.31 x 105% 2.42 +0.11 1.73 x 104% 1.80 +0.07
Blue Jays RHP on road Dan Straily MIA 471 2.13 x 109% 2.34 +0.20 1.62 x 107% 1.75 +0.12
Cubs RHP on road Nick Pivetta PHI 574 2.15 x 106% 2.29 +0.14 1.65 x 106% 1.75 +0.10
Royals RHP at home Andrew Cashner BAL 616 1.99 x 115% 2.28 +0.29 1.53 x 114% 1.75 +0.21
White Sox RHP at home Nathan Eovaldi BOS 365 2.16 x 104% 2.24 +0.09 1.66 x 105% 1.74 +0.08
Mets LHP on road Andrew Suarez SFG 525 2.06 x 107% 2.21 +0.15 1.57 x 108% 1.70 +0.13
Nationals RHP at home Jhoulys Chacin MIL 658 2.30 x 90% 2.08 -0.22 1.75 x 90% 1.57 -0.17
Astros RHP at home Jaime Barria LAA 419 2.10 x 98% 2.05 -0.04 1.58 x 100% 1.58 -0.01
Athletics RHP at home Mike Leake SEA 666 2.01 x 102% 2.04 +0.03 1.53 x 103% 1.58 +0.05
Mariners RHP on road Mike Fiers OAK 591 2.17 x 93% 2.01 -0.16 1.67 x 95% 1.59 -0.08
Padres RHP at home Antonio Senzatela COL 250 1.88 x 109% 2.04 +0.16 1.44 x 108% 1.55 +0.11
Braves RHP at home Jameson Taillon PIT 630 2.19 x 89% 1.96 -0.23 1.66 x 91% 1.52 -0.14
Brewers RHP on road Tanner Roark WSN 667 2.06 x 95% 1.95 -0.11 1.59 x 95% 1.51 -0.07
Marlins RHP at home Aaron Sanchez TOR 381 1.79 x 107% 1.91 +0.12 1.39 x 105% 1.46 +0.07
Dodgers RHP at home Zack Greinke ARI 676 2.24 x 85% 1.89 -0.35 1.70 x 87% 1.47 -0.22
Pirates RHP on road Anibal Sanchez ATL 420 2.15 x 87% 1.88 -0.27 1.65 x 88% 1.44 -0.20
Reds LHP on road Austin Gomber STL 205 2.01 x 88% 1.76 -0.24 1.57 x 88% 1.37 -0.20
Giants RHP at home Zack Wheeler NYM 637 2.09 x 83% 1.74 -0.35 1.59 x 85% 1.34 -0.25
Diamondbacks LHP on road Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD 182 2.15 x 77% 1.65 -0.50 1.64 x 79% 1.30 -0.34
Rays RHP on road Corey Kluber CLE 699 1.95 x 84% 1.64 -0.31 1.51 x 86% 1.30 -0.21
Orioles RHP on road Brad Keller KCR 438 1.92 x 86% 1.65 -0.27 1.48 x 88% 1.30 -0.18
Tigers RHP on road Luis Severino NYY 670 1.73 x 88% 1.52 -0.21 1.34 x 89% 1.20 -0.14
Red Sox RHP on road Michael Kopech CHW 36 2.39 x 56% 1.34 -1.05 1.81 x 65% 1.18 -0.63
Angels LHP on road Framber Valdez HOU 39 1.94 x 45% 0.88 -1.06 1.50 x 44% 0.67 -0.83