Tiers of Starting Pitching – Elite, Superstars and Studs

March 11, 2011 By Bodhizefa 10 Comments

Ladies and gentlemen, I bring you my Tiers of Starting Pitching for 2011.

This year, I’ve incorporated Defense Factors, as explained in my Team Defense Grades article, as well as Park Factors, both of which have a huge impact on pitching analysis in my opinion. The plus and minus symbols for each are from the perspective of the pitcher. A is good for the pitcher, while a is better. A is bad for the pitcher, while a is worse, and some are graded Neutral, or average. For more detail on the defense grades, check the introduction and legend in the aforementioned article.

A big thanks to FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, Baseball Reference, and my old friends at Mastersball.com and RotoJunkieFix for all their help over the years in figuring things out.

I hope these rankings help you find great fantasy value drafting your starting rotation this season. Post questions and comments below, or in the forum, as I’d be happy to discuss any of the rankings.

Tiers of SP: Elite, Superstars and Studs | Solid Gents and Upside Plays | The Rest, Sleepers and Asleep
Speculative Plays | Don’t Drink the Water

[Editor’s Note: Rankings updated March 21st.]

Tier 1: The King’s Throne

1st round talent

1. Felix Hernandez, RHP, SEA (2.27 ERA, 3.11 FIP, -0.84 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I once had a man crush on Austin Kearns, so I bought a bobblehead of him. He proceeded to suck ever since. Then I fell for Travis Hafner. He peaked soon thereafter, and then he fell off the face of the earth. I won’t be purchasing a Felix Hernandez bobblehead. You’re welcome. Long live the King.

2. Roy Halladay, RHP, PHI (2.44 ERA, 3.07 FIP, -0.63 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
He’s amazing, and he’s a helluva lot of fun to own on your team, both real and fantasy. Draft and enjoy.

Tier 1.5: The Superstars

Pitchers who have Tier 1 ability but are more likely to be Tier 2

3. Tim Lincecum, RHP, SF (3.43 ERA, 3.13 FIP, +0.30 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Right-handed pitchers are always going to find it easier to pitch in AT&T Park as it’s very difficult for left-handed hitters to hit anything over the wall in right. We miss you, Barry Bonds. In other words, even as Lincecum’s fastball has continued to decline, he’s been able to fend off a massive spike in homerun rate in part due to his home park (and in part due to the fact that he’s a fairly crafty pitcher who has continued to up his groundball rates every single year in the league). I don’t think he’s an unmitigated fantasy uber-star any longer, but he’s still an ace pitcher who you can expect to have an ERA in the high 2.00’s or low 3.00’s along with elite strikeout rates and a WHIP in the 1.10’s. I still love me some Timmah!

4. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, LAD (2.91 ERA, 3.07 FIP, -0.16 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
At 23, Kershaw is already one of the better pitchers in all of baseball, and there’s a chance he continues to improve in 2011. His control steadily improved over the course of last season (with the one blip being August) to where he was throwing a 4.57 K/BB in September. He has elite level talent and could eventually become the type of low-2’s ERA, 1.00’s WHIP, 230+ strikeout pitcher that dominates fantasy leagues. I don’t quite expect that from him in 2011, but what I do anticipate is for him to throw more innings this season allowing for 220+ strikeouts with his ERA maybe rising a tad due to increased homeruns given up against right-handers and the other stats staying pretty similar to 2010. He’s already an awesome hurler who could be one of the best 3 or 4 pitchers in baseball in the next year or two.

5. Cliff Lee, LHP, PHI (3.18 ERA, 2.63 FIP, +0.55 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
My favorite thing about Lee is that he seems more likely to walk across his lawn than walk a hitter these days. That’s a daily counter I’d love to see on ESPN’s ticker. Fantasy-wise, he’s a workhorse who will give you a low 3’s ERA, 180+ K’s, and an elite level WHIP to go with lots of Wins. The move to the NL full-time will serve him well. I’m a fan – big time.

Tier 2: The Superstars, Part Deux

6. CC Sabathia, LHP, NYY (3.18 ERA, 3.54 FIP, -0.36 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
New York’s park factor doesn’t really affect CC as much because being left-handed allows him to neutralize it a bit. And yes, I realize he’s trended downward peripherally the last couple of seasons, but I’m not too worried about it. Expect much more of the same with Sabathia as he puts up a FIP near 3.40 but likely outperforms it due to the good outfield defense for the Yankees. He’ll add 190+ strikeouts, a good WHIP, and a bevy of Wins. And hey, he’s slimmer this year, too, so you can even enjoy watching him more as he jiggles less on the mound!

7. Mat Latos, RHP, SD (2.92 ERA, 3.03 FIP, -0.11 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Latos is an elite pitching talent in an elite pitcher’s park with a good defense behind him. In other words, he’s an elite fantasy pitcher. It’s possible the Padres may put an innings cap on him, so don’t bid for more than 200 innings of production. He’s basically Jake Peavy 2.0, and I’m looking at Peavy’s 2005 season as my optimistic projection for Latos this season.

8. Justin Verlander, RHP, DET (3.37 ERA, 3.04 FIP, +0.33 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Another season with a 3.25-3.50 ERA, 1.20ish WHIP (you can go a little lower if you like here), and 215 K sounds pretty nice. Sign me up for this workhorse.

9. Jon Lester, LHP, BOS (3.25 ERA, 3.21 FIP, +0.04 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Lester’s an ace, and he’s fun to both watch and to own. He’s already a strikeout machine, he keeps the ball in the park, and he induces groundballs at a very high clip. There’s even room for improvement in his walk rate. Bid on more of the same from him in 2011 as he showed in 2010, and there’s small hope for a high 2.00’s ERA within him.

10. Josh Johnson, RHP, FLA (2.30 ERA, 2.46 FIP, -0.16 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Johnson is a certified fantasy ace at this point, but it’s tough to project him for much more than 190 innings with his injury history. Last year may also be the peak of what you could expect from him strikeout-wise, too. I lean toward him having an ERA in the very low 3.00’s, 190+ K, and a WHIP in the 1.10’s.

11. Tommy Hanson, RHP, ATL (3.33 ERA, 3.34 FIP, -0.01 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
I think he finally puts it all together this year and makes a run at 190+ K with a low 3.00’s ERA and a WHIP in the low-to-mid 1.10’s. We have a fantasy ace in the making right here.

12. Jered Weaver, RHP, LAA (3.01 ERA, 3.13 FIP, -0.12 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Weaver went out and became an ace last year which was somewhat unexpected given his stagnant growth curve. Everyone will assume regression, and they’d be right, but Bourjos in the outfield for a guy like Weaver could mean a world of difference for the likes of Weaver and his flyballing ways. Even with regression in ERA, a 3.50 ERA, an excellent mid-1.10’s WHIP, and 190 K doesn’t seem out of reach.

Tier 3: The Studs

13. David Price, LHP, TB (2.72 ERA, 3.48 FIP, -0.76 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Part of the reason David Price was able to outperform his FIP last year was because his big park and excellent defense aided him to a 1.96 ERA at home. Those factors really haven’t changed much as both project to be extremely favorable for Price in 2011. So while everyone exclaims that Price is due for a regression, note that the regression may not be as severe as everyone believes. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Price outperforming his FIP again, although more in the -0.20 to -0.30 Differential range than the -0.76 he posted last year. There’s also still a good chance that Price continues to hone his control, too, which could help offset a probable increase in his homeruns allowed. I’ve learned to trust talent in the past when it’s borderline as to how the numbers will fall. In Price’s case, he’s plenty talented. And so is that defense. I’d go pretty strong on Price in 2011.

14. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, COL (2.88 ERA, 3.08 FIP, -0.20 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Expectations have to be managed here as Ubaldo is obviously a very solid pitcher, but there’s some normalization in store for him on multiple fronts (BABIP, HR/9, and probably LOB% as well). Not to mention the fact that he’s working in an awful ballpark with what is now a mediocre to bad defense. Maybe I’m the only one who thinks Jimenez was in a little over his head last year in terms of his fantasy rate stats, but I’d rather win by being a bit too cautious with a Coors pitcher than being too cavalier. He seems likely to return to 3.25-3.50 ERA territory with low 1.20’s WHIP and 200+ K. Those are great numbers, but they’re not elite. Know the difference.

15. Chris Carpenter, RHP, STL (3.22 ERA, 3.71 FIP, -0.49 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Early injury issues this Spring remind me that Carpenter’s not getting any younger. For his career, Carpenter has been pretty much a workhorse unless he had a major injury. But I think he’s at the age where we can start to anticipate incremental drops in innings each year due to small, nagging injuries. When he’s on the field, he’s going to be vintage Carpenter, but I’d project 190 innings with anything else being extra value.

16. Dan Haren, RHP, LAA (3.91 ERA, 3.71 FIP, +0.20 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Haren’s due for a solid bounceback season as his HR/FB normalizes. And as long as Peter Bourjos is in the outfield, the Angels profile as a plus defense. He’s one of the more durable and reliable pitchers in baseball, so while he probably won’t be able to put up low-3.00 ERA’s in the AL, I’d still anticipate mid-3.00’s with plenty of K and a good WHIP in the high 1.10’s.

17. Cole Hamels, LHP, PHI (3.06 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -0.61 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
Noteworthy for Hamels in 2010 was an uptick in velocity, a large increase in strikeout rate from the past couple of seasons, and the addition of a cut fastball as a new look pitch. He’s also a pitcher who has a lot of variance from his ERA to FIP. Occasionally, there are pitchers who are able to consistently out-produce their FIP’s, and Hamels has done that three out of the last four seasons. Does that mean he’ll do it again? I have no clue. But he’s a good pitcher who you can probably count on for 180 K, a WHIP in the 1.10’s, and an ERA south of 3.50. Bid on those numbers and you’re unlikely to be disappointed. And if you happen to catch him in Spring Training, look at the velo numbers on the radar gun. The closer they are to 92+ mph on the fastball, the more confident I am that he can increase the K’s and lower the ERA from that projection.

18. Francisco Liriano, LHP, MIN (3.62 ERA, 2.73 FIP, +0.89 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
The Minnesota coaches and brass obviously aren’t in love with him for some reason, but I think it’s easy to have a man crush on this guy as a fantasy owner. He has excellent component stats, his fastball is back, and it’s always more fun loving a guy who isn’t even appreciated properly by his own team. Injury caveats apply, of course, so don’t bid on much more than 190 innings worth of production. But who doesn’t want a 3.25+ ERA, 190+ K and a WHIP in the low 1.20’s?

19. Yovani Gallardo, RHP, MIL (3.84 ERA, 3.02 FIP, +0.82 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
He’s getting better, but I wonder how much his control can continue improving. And he’s going to need it to improve with the likes of Yuniesky Betancourt and the rest of the poor defense behind him. In any case, I think he’s good for a 3.50-3.75 ERA, a 1.28-1.34 WHIP, and 200 or so strikeouts. He isn’t the most durable of pitchers, so bet on 180 innings with anything more being a bonus. He’s got upside, though, so if you’re high on him, I can understand the sentiment. But don’t forget – Yuni!

20. Matt Cain, RHP, SF (3.14 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -0.53 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Ability to Annoy Sabermetricians of Old:
Cain’s scare with his elbow this Spring was an especially stark shock considering how much of a workhorse he has become. Let’s hope it was just a bump in the road, but knock down inning projections slightly on him (to 205) as the Giants may want to make sure they protect their investment what with all the added playoff innings he tossed last year. As for his stats, I’d guess on an ERA in the low 3’s with the positive park and defense factors coupled with his anti-FIP x-factor ability extraordinaire.

21. Daniel Hudson, RHP, ARI (2.45 ERA, 3.38 FIP, -0.93 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Unfortunately, the sterling ERA after he was shipped to Arizona in the Edwin Jackson trade probably means he won’t be too much of a bargain on draft day. What I really like about Hudson is that he’s got a good means of attack versus lefties or righties. Against lefties, his change-up is an excellent offering, and that plus good command of his fastball allows him to overmatch left-handed hitters. And against righties, his delivery is a bit deceptive and allows him to eat them up high in the zone (as evidenced in his high Infield Flyball Rate against right-handed hitters). Overall upside if he’s healthy: 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 175 K. There’s downside in the HR/FB ratio, so his ERA could blimp upwards with some bad luck in the homerun department. Still, I like his approach and stuff (and defense) enough that I would bid fairly aggressively on him.

22. Wandy Rodriguez, LHP, HOU (3.60 ERA, 3.53 FIP, +0.07 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Wandy rate stats are pretty strong and steady. He’s an excellent bet to go for a 3.50-3.70 ERA, a mid 1.20’s WHIP and healthy amount of K (think 180+). I hate his nickname, but I love his steady fantasy product.

23. Max Scherzer, RHP, DET (3.50 ERA, 3.77 FIP, -0.27 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
There’s some strikeout upside in his K/9. Combine that with a probable innings increase and you have a pitcher with 200+ strikeout upside. I wouldn’t project him for much better than a 3.50 ERA or high 1.20’s WHIP just yet as he learns how to sequence his pitches better, but Scherzer is a solid play this year.

24. Roy Oswalt, RHP, PHI (2.76 ERA, 3.32 FIP, -0.56 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
I expect him to veer more into the mid-3.00’s with his ERA this year with a WHIP closer to 1.20 than 1.00 and 175 K instead of 190. But he’s still a fine pitcher to own on a fantasy team, and the Phillies should provide him with a few more Wins than he’s been accustomed to in the last couple of years.

25. Chad Billingsley, RHP, LAD (3.57 ERA, 3.04 FIP, +0.53 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Lost a bit behind the Kershaw breakout was a nice improvement by Chad Billingsley. His BB/9 moved closer to 3 than 4 for the first time in his career, and his FIP dipped noticeably because of it. There’s some noise in a lot of his peripheral numbers, but the short of it is that he could probably produce a similar ERA this year compared to last year’s even while seeing an increase in his FIP to the mid-3’s. In other words, bid on repeat numbers as last year from Bills. He’s even got a bit of upside in strikeouts.

26. Shaun Marcum, RHP, MIL (3.64 ERA, 3.77 FIP, -0.13 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
The shift to the NL should help him navigate the downgrade in defense behind him. He’s an underrated fantasy asset at this point with high-3’s ERA potential to go along with a good WHIP (low 1.20’s), 165+ K, and a healthy amount of Wins.

27. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SF (3.00 ERA, 3.68 FIP, -0.68 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He displayed great control as a rookie (2.11 BB/9), he can strike hitters out at an above average clip (6.97 K/9 last year), and he has an excellent defense helping him out. I think you can probably expect an ERA in the 3.30-3.50 range, a WHIP in the high 1.10’s or low 1.20’s, and 150+ K. He’s for real, and I like him quite a bit in 2011.

28. Colby Lewis, RHP, TEX (3.72 ERA, 3.62 FIP, +0.10 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I’m a fan. He’s a better pitcher than C.J. Wilson, at least in terms of fantasy potential, as he should provide more K’s and a better WHIP while posting a similar ERA. I expect some regression as his BABIP normalizes a bit, but the excellent defense in Texas will mitigate that a bit. A similar ERA with a bit of a higher WHIP (think something in the mid-to-high 1.20’s) and 180+ strikeouts sounds like a really solid investment to me.

29. Clay Buchholz, RHP, BOS (2.33 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -1.34 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
A rise in ERA due to HR/9 and BABIP regressions is a given. Still, he’s a solid bet to outperform his FIP due to the good defense in Boston, and he’s got a good enough groundball ratio to keep his HR/9 better than average. A mid-to-high 3’s ERA along with a healthy 150+ K’s is probably in order. Just be wary of those that expect even better, and allow them to overbid on him if they want.

30. Brett Anderson, LHP, OAK (2.80 ERA, 3.24 FIP, -0.44 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Anderson is still much the same in terms of how I think about him now versus last year at this time – which is to say quite positive – only now he comes with the caveat of being an injury risk. I’ve seen him fall in a number of drafts, though, so I believe there’s a great opportunity for a value buy on him in 2011. He still has very good groundball ratios and control (the 1.76 BB/9 last year was an eye-popper), and while his strikeouts dipped in 2010 in his limited time on the mound, I expect that to loft back up a bit as his stuff was never discernibly hampered by his injuries. He has a great defense behind him, and Oakland’s coliseum plays a lot bigger for southpaws than it does for righties (meaning the park is close to a + + factor for lefty pitchers). In other words, Anderson has a lot going for him, and I would have him at the top of my sleeper list this season. I could easily see Anderson out-earning a guy like Brandon Morrow, for example, despite Morrow going a couple of rounds earlier in ADP thus far into the pre-season.

Solid Gents and Upside Plays »»

Offseason Player Movement: Free Agents

February 28, 2011 By Rick Leave a Comment

Just like the last two years, there were three big name players who everyone wanted, but few could afford. In 2009, it was the New York Yankees gobbling up all three when they landed C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira. In 2010, the Big Three went three different directions with Jason Bay going to the New York Mets, Matt Holliday to the St. Louis Cardinals, and John Lackey to the Boston Red Sox.

The three big-time free agents this year also went to three different teams. Cliff Lee returned to the Philadelphia Phillies, Jayson Werth signed with the Washington Nationals, and Carl Crawford landed in Boston.

This offseason saw a large number of free agents sign with new teams. Some teams were trying to fill holes while others were trying to take their team to the next level. Whatever the reason, a lot of quality players found new homes and here are the ones with the most interesting fantasy implications.

Prime Time Players

Jayson Werth stayed in the N.L. East, but his new team is the lowly Nationals. He has been a great hitter the last two seasons while playing full time and surrounded by a powerful Phillies lineup that plays home games in a band box. Can he continue putting up those numbers in a much weaker offense? The consensus fantasy opinion is no way, no how.

Both Werth and the Nats should have done better than simply joining forces, but they kind of needed each other despite the fact that this marriage will likely end up poorly. When a $129M contract lands in your lap, you sign it immediately and worry about the likelihood of you succeeding in that place another day. Washington was looking for a splash and is hoping this will generate ticket sales and positive attention from future free agents. Werth is still a fine player, but fantasy owners and baseball pundits are certainly right to expect a drop off from his 2010 numbers. If your fellow drafters discount him too much though, take advantage. Otherwise avoid.

Carl Crawford also changed teams within his old division, but this time he plays for a team that doesn’t mind spending cash, and has a bevy of talented bats around him. The Red Sox threw a lot of money at Crawford who is a much better offensive and defensive outfielder than all the guys the Sox ran out to left field in 2010. In a better offense, Crawford should slightly improve on his 2010.

Cliff Lee is returning to Philadelphia, the place where he spent a half a season and helped the Phillies to their second straight N.L. title in 2009. He was the best pitcher on the free agent market and found himself signing to be a part of arguably the best rotation in baseball history. The offense in Philadelphia is very strong and Lee will benefit. Bid confidently, but don’t overpay for him.

Adam Dunn finally found a position worthy of his defensive prowess: designated hitter. The Chicago White Sox needed another power bat and Dunn was willing to accept their $56M. This looks like a good fit as Dunn has been incredibly consistent, slugging 38 or more homers in each of the last seven seasons. Expect more of the same on the South Side.

Victor Martinez will hit almost every day in Detroit’s lineup. V-Mart will catch and play first base occasionally, but will be the regular designated hitter in the Tigers lineup. This is great news if you can draft V-Mart as you will get well over 500 at-bats from your catcher and some serious power to go with it.

Ted Lilly re-signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers after a short stint with the team to finish the 2010 season. Lilly isn’t great, but he’ll provide very solid ratios, especially pitching at Chavez Ravine.

The Baltimore Orioles added Derrek Lee to play first base. Lee has fallen out of favor with fantasy players. His stats are sliding a bit from his glory days with the Chicago Cubs, but if you can snag Lee in the early-teen rounds you will love the results. Lee is healthy again and is determined to prove that he hasn’t lost it. If you have the faith in Lee, he will pay off handsomely.

Joining Lee in Baltimore is Vladimir Guerrero to become the Orioles DH and get the occasional start in the outfield. His legs are shot, but the power should remain, especially in Baltimore’s bandbox of a stadium. He’s good for your team overall, but certainly don’t expect his speed to return. That ship has sailed.

Hideki Matsui left the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim as he headed north to join the Oakland Athletics. Godzilla’s not fit for playing the outfield any longer, but his bat is still strong. He’ll be the A’s DH and is worth a roster spot on your squad.

Russell Martin has received no love since his breakout season of 2007. Since his game has slumped at the plate in the last few years, he has earned what he has received, but look for a revival in the Bronx. Hitting in the Yankees order can do wonders for anyone’s game and Martin should be rejuvenated with 2007-esque numbers. The steals might not break 20 like his big season, but look for the average and power to return. A mid-teen draft pick should net you a very solid catcher.

Buyer Beware

If there is one player that you should stay away from, it’s Adrian Beltre. He has shown us a pattern of playing hard only when his next contract is on the line. In a contract season, he is a monster. He averaged .310/28/89 in his three contract seasons. Compare that to his non-contract season average of .264/18/67. Why the Texas Rangers would back up the armored car for this slacker, no one knows. Make sure you don’t do it, even in a hitter friendly ballpark, unless you want to be disappointed.

Rafael Soriano signed on with the Yankees. This is great news if you are a Yankee fan as he will provide even more bullpen depth. If you are a Soriano owner however, you are in big trouble as he is no longer a closer and just lost a great deal of value to become a setup man. He’ll still give you great ratios and strikeouts, but the saves will become non-existent as Mariano Rivera will still get all the save opportunities. If your league uses holds as a category, this Soriano may be a great find.

Juan Uribe arrived in the majors with a lot of hype about a big bat at a thin position. He played enough SS last season for the San Francisco Giants to still qualify at the position and found that spark in his bat to be a legitimate threat again. He’s been very inconsistent throughout his career and playing home games in Dodger Stadium won’t help his bat, but a guy who qualifies at both middle infield positions and the hot corner is well worth finding a roster spot for. Just make sure you have a legitimate backup ready to go if Uribe has another one of his down seasons.

After hitting 20 bombs last year for Toronto, John Buck signed a fat contract to be the Florida Marlins’ catcher. Too many players hit too many homeruns last season in Toronto to not raise a few eyebrows. Buck will not bust 20 this season, but he is worth owning as a middle round catcher.

Oakland brought Rich Harden back. Harden is the ultimate high risk, high reward guy. When he’s healthy, he’s a dominant pitcher. But he’s often not healthy and can’t be counted on and will usually spend some time on the disabled list most every season.

Chicago Cubs’ new first baseman Carlos Pena is a big swinger. He misses a lot, but he also crushes a lot of pitches. If you are willing to trade batting average for a lot of power, Pena is your man. He should benefit from a move to the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. That batting average is ugly though. It declined over 20 points each of the last two seasons, last year falling from .227 to .196.

Arizona Diamondbacks signed J.J. Putz to be their closer. Putz hasn’t closed in over two years, but he is going to a very low pressure situation with a team not expected to win. He is in the perfect situation for saves, a good pitching rotation and a mediocre offense. Consider him a potential buy-low target.

Jhonny Peralta re-signed with the Tigers to continue as their shortstop. After playing most of 2010 at third base for the Cleveland Indians, he was traded to Detroit and changed positions to bring offense at the expense of solid defense. Since you don’t care about his defense, you should benefit from a solid performance for a mid-round draft pick and the flexibility of two infield positions.

Lance Berkman is heading to St. Louis to play primarily the outfield for the first time since 2004. He has had some great hitting seasons, but has fallen off in recent years. St. Louis seems to be a fountain of youth in recent years for players like Matt Holliday, Larry Walker, Tino Martinez and Mark McGwire. All were found to have dwindling skills, but were rejuvenated and excelled for a year or more after landing in St. Louis. Don’t expect another 10 great years from Berkman in a Cards uni, but hitting in the St. Louis offense could be a good fit for this season.

The Florida Marlins gave Javier Vazquez a one-year contract and a rotation spot. This guy has a history of being a great pitcher when not wearing Yankee pinstripes. Vazquez is back in the National League, where the majority of his success happened, is as close to his homeland of Puerto Rico as any major league team, and is playing in the Hispanic city of Miami. It is easy to see Vazquez returning to form, or at least being an above average pitcher.

Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez signed with the Tampa Rays as a package deal. It is believed that Damon received a much higher salary because his duties also include being Manny’s babysitter when the oft-disgruntled slugger gets bent out of shape. They are both likely to get a lot of playing time for Tampa, but they are both in their late 30s and in decline. Neither will embarrass himself, but neither will likely break 20 homers or 70 ribbies.

Brandon Webb was one of the most feared pitchers in baseball just a few years ago. He won at least 14 games for four straight seasons, culminating with 22 wins in 2008. A shoulder injury derailed his 2009 and 2010 seasons and led to the Diamondbacks giving him the heave-ho. He signed in Texas, where the hot summer seems to make the ball jump out of the park. Webb does not have a history of giving up gopherballs, so this shouldn’t be a problem. With a good offense backing him, Webb could be a decent pickup in the mid rounds.

Bench Warmers

Adam LaRoche will wear his fifth different uniform in the last three seasons, now joining the Nationals. He is a very solid first baseman with the glove and stick, but he isn’t about to be confused with Albert Pujols. He makes a great backup first baseman, but this probably isn’t the guy you want as your starter.

Baltimore signed Kevin Gregg to be their closer. His ERA wasn’t awful last year but don’t expect it to last pitching in the toughest division in baseball (although this isn’t a change for him, coming from the Toronto Blue Jays). He’s got a history of blown saves and he’s likely to keep that trend going. Gregg is not an answer to saves unless you are truly desperate.

Orlando Hudson signed with the San Diego Padres. The team signed O-Dog because they see Hudson’s defense as an upgrade. Unfortunately, he is getting slower with age and his offense was never his strength. He’ll be a great backup, but you don’t want Slow-Dog (as he is starting to be known) as your starter, unless you are in the deepest of leagues.

Orlando Cabrera is very solid. You get pretty much the same thing from him every year, regardless of which team he plays for. This year he joins Cleveland after a year with the Cincinnati Reds. If you want a slightly above average guy, O-Cab is your guy. If you strive for something better than that, look elsewhere. He does bring the added value of a new position to his resume, second base.

The Dodgers brought Jon Garland in to provide stability at the back end of the rotation. He’ll thrive in Los Angeles’ huge stadium, but is likely to be mediocre in most every pitching category.

Filling Garland’s slot in San Diego is Aaron Harang. The San Diego native was a stud in Cincinnati in 2006 and 2007, when he won 16 games and struck out over 200 hitters each season. Though San Diego is a great pitchers park, he won’t return to those lofty numbers. Look for solid ratios, but the strikeouts and wins should be tempered.

Double Dipping Two-Start Pitchers, Week 20

August 16, 2010 By Rick Leave a Comment

As we go into the last quarter of the season, you have to watch out for a number of pitfalls that trip a lot of fantasy owners as they head down the stretch.

You have to know when your league’s trade deadline is and if you should make a last second deal. Trading away a prospect for a legitimate producer that can help you win a title is always the best way to go. You never know if your prospect will develop into a stud or if you will be back in the hunt next year. Go for it now.

Watch for the September callus. Your veteran players on teams out of the hunt might get a little extra rest as their team tries to give the young kids an opportunity to show what they can do. Likewise, your prospects on the teams in contention might not get as many chances as their team is fighting it out for a playoff berth.

Don’t forget about the Coors Effect. The ball jumps a lot better at Coors Field in August and September than the first four months. Play your hitters and watch out for your pitchers.

As the NFL gets underway, don’t let almost five months of hard work go up in smoke just because pigskin games are starting up. Make sure you pay attention to your fantasy baseball team and give them the attention they need to have a chance to win.

This week, Milwaukee and St. Louis are scheduled to play only five games this week while Baltimore, Detroit, New York (AL), Oakland Tampa Bay, Texas, Atlanta, Chicago (NL), Florida, Houston, Los Angeles (NL), New York (NL), Pittsburgh, and San Diego are all on the docket for seven. All other teams are scheduled to play six games this week.

Now, the projected 2-start pitchers for this week. For those of you in leagues who require you to set your lineup at the beginning of the week, these are guys you should strongly consider:

American League
BAL	Brad Bergesen, Kevin Millwood
BOS	Clay Buchholz
CWS	John Danks
CLE	Jeanmar Gomez
DET	Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander
KC	Zack Greinke
LAA	Jered Weaver
MIN	Scott Baker
NYY	Javier Vazquez, C.C. Sabathia
OAK	Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden
SEA	Doug Fister
TB	David Price, Matt Garza
TEX	Cliff Lee, Tommy Hunter
TOR	Shaun Marcum

National League
ARI	Daniel Hudson
ATL	Tommy Hanson, Mike Miner
CHC	Tom Gorzelanny, Randy Wells
CIN	Bronson Arroyo
COL	Jhoulys Chacin
FLA	Chris Volstad, Ricky Nolasco
HOU	Wandy Rodriguez, Nelson Figueroa
LAD	Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw
MIL	none
NYM	Jon Niese, Johan Santana
PHI	Roy Oswalt
PIT	James McDonald, Zach Duke
SD	Kevin Correia, Jon Garland
SF	Barry Zito
STL	none
WAS	Scott Olsen

Rick’s Picks
Five best bets for double-start pitchers this week

1. C.C. Sabathia gets Detroit and Seattle at home this week. The big fellow is dominant at home (8-0, 2.35 ERA). With the Bronx Bombers offense backing him up, this is a no-brainer.

2. Roy Oswalt is still trying to settle into Philadelphia and this week’s matchups should help. Home games against San Francisco and Washington are just what he needs to get the brotherly love he’s been craving.

3. Johan Santana has lost his ability to dominate games with strikeouts, but he’s still a formidable pitcher. Despite two road games this week, playing Houston and Pittsburgh are matchups any pitcher would want.

4. Matt Garza gets Texas and Oakland to visit Tropicana Field. Garza has taken that next step forward this season in becoming a premier pitcher and despite one power hitting team showing up this week, he’s still a safe play at home.

5. Since his return from the disabled list in May, Cliff Lee has found the form that made him one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two years. He gets a tough first game at Tampa Bay, but he finishes with an easy second game at Baltimore. He rarely blows up and you can always count on strikeouts from the big lefty making this a worthwhile week to play Lee.