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Straight Cheese Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 7

May 2, 2019 By kopasetic Leave a Comment

Wade Miley, HOU

Houston Astros Wade Miley hasn’t pitched for the same team in consecutive seasons since 2013-14. While we know he is not good, for this week Chris says pick him up, stream him, and then throw him back.

This is my weekly column where I suggest low-owned starting pitchers that have a matchup in their favor in the coming week to help your fantasy baseball team. Most of these hurlers are to be used and tossed back to the waiver wire. Some of them will graduate from the wire and find a permanent space on a roster, hopefully yours. This week we are looking at streaming starting pitchers week 7.

My process is to look at wOBA, ISO and K% to identify weak-hitting lineups. Conversely, for pitchers I look at wOBA, ISO against and their K%.

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 5 Review

Before we get into next week’s pitchers to stream let’s look back at my previous recommendations, streaming starting pitchers week 5. Note we have to look back two weeks since last week’s Straight Cheese is for the current week. Got it? Good.

Name Date G IP ER H BB K DEC ERA WHIP
Aaron Brooks, OAK 4/24 vs TEX 1 5.00 3 6 0 7 ND 5.40 1.20
Brandon Woodruff, MIL 4/27 @ NYM 1 5.00 1 6 1 6 W 1.80 1.40
Erik Swanson, SEA 4/28 vs TEX 1 4.00 6 11 0 2 L 13.50 2.75
Total 3 14.00 10 23 1 15 1 – 1 6.43 1.71

Damn you, Swanson. I had a pretty good thing going until you came in on Sunday and crushed my hopes; much like Arya crushing the Night King’s hopes of an endless night.

Instead, I had an endless night of restlessness second guessing my Swanson pick. Speaking of GOT, could I get the camera crew to go back and make it so I can’t see Swanson’s performance, much like they did with the Battle of Winterfell?

All statistics, ownership and projected starting dates are as of Thursday morning, May 2.

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 7

Continuing on with the GoT thread… we still have more to get to, so here’s three pitchers I’m telling you to stream next week.

LHP Wade Miley, HOU
Owned Y15%/E10% · vs. Texas Rangers – Thursday, May 9th

Okay, there is a reason that Miley is sitting out on your waiver wire. Everyone knows that his current 3.52 ERA and 1.14 WHIP are not who he is. Dude doesn’t even strike anyone out (15.2 K% and 5.67 K/9). His 4.52 xFIP this year and a career 4.23 ERA tell me that things are going to eventually get ugly.

But not next week when Texas comes to town. The Rangers struggle mightily against southpaws on the road: 0.229 wOBA (29th), 0.70 ISO (30th) and 33.6 K% (30th). Let’s all do the right thing here and stream Miley for this start and toss him back to the free agent pool where he belongs.

RHP Jake Odorizzi, MIN
Owned Y22%/E10% · vs. Detroit Tigers – Friday, May 10th

Odorizzi is similar to Miley in that everyone knows that he is probably worse than his stats indicate (3.34 ERA, 4.68 xFIP and 1.11 WHIP). What he brings to the table that Miley doesn’t is strikeouts: 25.0 K% and 9.10 K/9.

Those K’s will come into play when Detroit comes to town. The Tigers are currently last in MLB with 30.7 K% vs. RHP on the road. They also rank towards the bottom in wOBA (0.275 / 27th) and ISO (0.127 / 27th) in the same split.

You know what to do, now go do it.

LHP Manny Banuelos, CHW
Owned Y3%/E2% · at Toronto Blue Jays – Friday, May 10th at Cleveland Indians – Thursday, May 9th

Banuelos was recently moved to the starting rotation filling in the vacated spot when Ervin Santana was released. In two starts he has a 1.86 ERA, 3.44 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP and 10 strikeouts in 9.2 innings (24.4 K%). The WHIP is a little high but everything else I like. Now, if you ask me if he is worth keeping long term, I’ll say no because he is 28 years old and only has 46.1 MLB innings. In those innings he has a 4.26 xFIP and 18.7 K%.

What I am telling you to do though is stream him against the Blue Jays next week. Toronto comes into the contest struggling against LHP at home: 0.247 wOBA (29th), 0.087 ISO (29th) and 26.1 K% (21st).

Now that we know his start has been moved up to Thursday in Cleveland I want to recommend him even more! The Indians are even worse than the Blue Jays against LHP at home: through Monday’s games they had a 0.250 wOBA (28th), 0.74 ISO (28th) and strikeout 36.7% of the time (worst in MLB)! Stream him confidently and thank me later.

Extra Cheese

Here is where I recommend a two-start pitcher for you to stream. Please bear in mind that things can change after this article is posted. Injuries, rain delays, managerial moves, etc. can happen.

Well, make it two weeks in a row where the dude I’m telling you to get in there for two starts only ends up with one. Unfortunately, the one start we got from Pineda, in a word, painful.

Name Date G IP ER H BB K DEC ERA WHIP
Michael Pineda, MIN 4/23 @ HOU 1 5.33 4 8 2 4 ND 6.75 1.88
Total 1 5.33 4 8 2 4 0 – 0 6.75 1.88
Disco Stu

Disco Stu is a big fan of Anthony “Disco Tony” DeSclafani

RHP Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
Owned Y11%/E7% – vs. San Francisco (Mon May 6) & at SF (Sat May 11)

I recently found out that DeSclafini’s nickname is ‘Tony Disco’ and that made me like him more. Desclafini comes into the two matchups with a 3.48 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP and 36 strikeouts in 3 innings (27.7 K%). More impressively is that his last three starts have been splendid: 0.51 ERA, 2.42 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP and 20 strikeouts in 17.2 innings (32.6 K%).

Let’s ride this hot streak as he takes on the Giants twice next week:

  • SF vs. RHP on the road: 0.311 wOBA (17th), 0.193 ISO (11th) and 20.2 K% (5th)
  • SF vs. RHP at home: 0.235 wOBA (30th), 0.100 ISO (30th) and 25.7 K% (24th)

Yeah, I know those numbers on the road are a little surprising but, beggars can’t be choosers. Let’s roll Disco Tony out there next week and “Knock on Wood” that “I Will Survive” and keep on “Stayin’ Alive”.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Straight Cheese Week 23 Streaming Starting Pitchers – DeSclafani, Velasquez, Cahill

September 6, 2018 By kopasetic 1 Comment

Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds

Rough week last week for streaming pitchers but looking for a rebound this week, going back to the well with right hander Anthony DeSclafani of the Cincinnati Reds, facing the San Diego Padres Friday.

Fantasy baseball owners, this is the place where you come to get the Straight Cheese on less than desirable, questionably talented, less than 50% owned starting pitchers you can use for a spot start. Streaming pitchers is necessary to get those all-important counting stats for your roto league without drop-kicking your ratio stats into submission.

Before we dive into the dumpster looking for week 23 streaming starting pitchers, let’s take a look back at my picks from last week.

Week 22 Review

Name Date GS IP ER H BB K Dec ERA WHIP
Brad Keller KCR 8/31 vs BAL 1 8.00 2 4 2 4 W 2.25 0.75
Brian Johnson BOS 9/2 @ CHW 1 1.33 4 7 1 2 L 27.00 6.00
Lance Lynn NYY 9/2 vs DET 1 3.67 6 9 1 6 L 14.73 2.73
Total for Week   3 13.00 12 20 4 12 1-2 8.31 1.85
Running Total   64 371.00 138 313 120 362 31-15 3.35 1.17

To say Sunday blew up in my face is an understatement. Wow, who would have guessed that both starting pitchers from the Red Sox and Yankees would end up completely crapping the bed? I was on a very nice roll there and slammed into a brick wall when the calendar flipped to September. Don’t worry, Hoss. I really like this week’s trio of hurlers and believe we’ll be back on our feet.

Week 23 Streaming Starting Pitchers

The pitchers are listed in order of appearance as of Wednesday morning. Ownership info from Yahoo! (Y) and ESPN (E) and all 2018 stats are through Tuesday, September 4th.

RHP Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
Owned Y20%/E19% · vs San Diego Padres – Friday, September 7th

Maybe it is because they are too acclimated to the beautiful San Diego weather? How else can you explain the ineptitude away from Petco Park? Against RHP on the road they are currently posting a 0.285 wOBA (29th), 0.128 iso (last) and striking out 26.3% of the time (also last).

DeSclafani comes into the matchup with a 4.37 era (3.99 xFIP), 1.24 whip and striking out batters 21.0% of the time in 90 2/3 innings (7.84 k/9). He’s slightly better at home with a 4.34 era (3.33 xFIP), 1.24 whip and 24.3 k% (9.00 k/9).

RHP Vince Velasquez, PHI
Owned Y44%/E35% · @ New York Mets – Sunday, September 9th

Through Tuesday the Mets have a 0.283 wOBA (last in mlb), 0.139 iso (26th) and a striking out 22.6% of the time (22nd) when facing RHP at home. Enter Velasquez and his 4.10 era (3.99 xFIP), 1.25 whip and striking out batters 26.3% of the time (9.94 k/9). This is a situation where he should excel.

RHP Trevor Cahill, OAK
Owned Y33%/E30% · vs Texas Rangers – Sunday, September 9th

The Rangers struggle on the road. This is the 10th time I’ve written that this season. The previous 9 times I suggested streaming a pitcher against the Rangers resulted in a 1.94 era, 1.22 whip, 6 wins and 46 strikeouts in 51 innings. Currently versus RHP on the road they have a 0.305 wOBA (20th), 0.162 iso (16th) and strikeout 25.3% of the time (27th).

Cahill currently has a 3.60 era (3.59 xFIP), 1.16 whip and is striking out batters 22.7% of the time (8.28 k/9). Even better are his home numbers: 3.60 era (2.83 xFIP), 0.78 whip and 28.4 k% (9.36 k/9). This is the 3rd time I’m suggesting streaming Cahill. The other two times he pitched absolute gems: 22 strikeouts in 12 scoreless innings. Let’s make it three.

Remember, these suggestions aren’t ludicrous. They’re @Roto_Chris.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Thursday September 6

September 6, 2018 By kopasetic Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Cincinnati Reds are facing a LHP at home (Eric Lauer SDP who has faced 419 batters). On FanDuel the Reds are currently putting up 2.35 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP at home and Eric Lauer is currently allowing 115% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.70 (2.35 x 115%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Reds LHP at home Eric Lauer SDP 419 2.35 x 115% 2.70 +0.35 1.77 x 115% 2.03 +0.26
Blue Jays RHP at home Shane Bieber CLE 361 2.32 x 112% 2.59 +0.27 1.76 x 113% 1.99 +0.23
Indians RHP on road Sam Gaviglio TOR 443 2.16 x 112% 2.41 +0.25 1.65 x 112% 1.84 +0.19
Cubs RHP on road Stephen Strasburg WSN 419 2.17 x 102% 2.20 +0.04 1.66 x 102% 1.69 +0.03
Nationals RHP at home Kyle Hendricks CHC 679 2.27 x 94% 2.14 -0.13 1.72 x 96% 1.65 -0.07
Padres RHP on road Luis Castillo CIN 606 1.85 x 110% 2.04 +0.19 1.43 x 109% 1.56 +0.13
Braves RHP on road Zack Greinke ARI 706 2.12 x 85% 1.81 -0.32 1.62 x 87% 1.42 -0.21
Diamondbacks RHP at home Anibal Sanchez ATL 442 2.09 x 87% 1.81 -0.28 1.58 x 87% 1.38 -0.20

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Baseball

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