cincinnati bengals Archives

Cincinnati Bengals Team Report

July 7, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

QB Andy Dalton

After posting career highs in passing yards and passing touchdowns with 4,296 and 33 in 2013, while finishing as the 3rd ranked fantasy quarterback, Dalton regressed badly in 2014, throwing for just 3,398 yards and 19 touchdowns. Hue Jackson took over as the team’s offensive coordinator, and the Bengals leaned on their rushing attack more than in recent years, plus key receivers suffered through an injury marred campaign. A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert combined to miss significant time. While we don’t expect the Bengals to alter their run-pass ratio very much in 2015, we do expect Dalton to increase his production. With a healthy Green (three missed games) as well as Jones (16 missed games) and Eifert (15 missed games) back in the lineup, coupled with dynamic pass receiving running back Giovani Bernard and a solid possession receiver in Mohamed Sanu, Dalton has plenty of weapons at his disposal. He rates as a mid to lower tier QB2.

RB Jeremy Hill

Cincinnati Bengals RB Jeremy Hill wowed us as a rookie, and crushed high expectations for Giovani Bernard fantasy owners. What is he going to do for an encore?

Taken in the 2nd round of last year’s NFL Draft, Hill was expected to play second fiddle to Giovani Bernard in his rookie season, spelling the flashy 2nd year player as well as handling short yardage work. However, a hip injury suffered by Bernard at midseason opened up an opportunity for the LSU product, and he took advantage of it in a big way, finishing the season with 1,124 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns and 215 receiving yards. At 6’1” and 235 pounds, Hill used his size well during his rookie season, establishing himself as a north-south runner capable of producing the occasional big play, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. With Bernard struggling as a runner (career yards per carry of 4.1), Hill figures to handle rushing down duties for the Bengals other than when offensive coordinator Hue Jackson feels he needs a breather. Since we expect the Bengals offense to rate in the league’s top 10 in 2015, we consider Hill a lower tier RB1 in redraft formats as well as an outstanding dynasty league prospect.

RB Giovani Bernard

After accumulating 1,209 total yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie in 2013, Bernard was touted as a potential breakout candidate in 2014. However, that proved to be optimistic as fantasy pundits failed to place enough emphasis on the 14.1 touches per game he averaged as a rookie as well as the role that rookie 2nd round pick Jeremy Hill would play. Sure enough, Bernard opened the season in the lead role before suffering a hip injury that caused him to miss three games while also creating an opportunity for Hill to emerge as the team’s starting running back. While Bernard’s production on a per game basis was very similar to his rookie season, he is firmly entrenched as Hill’s backup. With Bernard operating as a change of pace, receiving option out of the backfield, we still expect him to average between 12-15 touches per game which should allow to produce as a lower tier RB2, albeit one who may produce on an inconsistent basis.

WR A.J. Green

After amassing an impressive 3,833 receiving yards and 29 touchdowns during his first three years in the league, Green suffered through the worst year of his career in 2014, catching 69 passes for 1,041 yards with six touchdowns. A toe injury caused him to miss three games and he was limited in several others. With a return to health in 2015, we expect Green to return to the production he displayed in 2013. While the fantasy crowd seems to be discounting Green somewhat due to his lack of production last season, the Bengals increased reliance on the running game and the emergence of Mohamed Sanu and the return to health of Marvin Jones and tight end Tyler Eifert, we aren’t buying that narrative. The big dog needs to be fed and there is no doubt that Green is the big dog in the Bengals passing attack. We rate him as a top five fantasy wide receiver and see another 1,300 yard, touchdown season on the horizon.

WR Marvin Jones

After producing a breakout season in 2013 with 51 receptions for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns, Jones’ 2014 was lost to injury as he missed the entire season with ankle problems. Entering his 4th year in the league, Jones has breakout potential provided he can shake off the rust and build on the progress he displayed two seasons ago. With Jones back in the lineup, we expect the Bengals to throw the ball more often as their group of receivers suffered through an injury-plagued 2014 season. However, with Mohamed Sanu having established himself in 2013 and the Bengals anxious to see what tight end Tyler Eifert can do as he also returns from injury, Jones rates as a WR5 until he strings together a couple of productive weeks.

WR Mohamed Sanu

With A.J. Green missing time with a toe injury and Marvin Jones out for the entire 2014 season, Sanu posted career highs across the board with 56 receptions for 790 yards and five touchdowns. He will battle Jones for a spot in the starting lineup in 2015, but the smart money is on Jones. While Sanu posted a surprising 14.1 yards per reception, that was an outlier that belies his lack of speed. He averaged under 10 yards per reception during his first two years in the league. Since we don’t expect that Sanu will usurp Jones for a spot in the starting lineup and tight end Tyler Eifert will likely eat into Sanu’s role on short and intermediate routes, look for Sanu to struggle to match his 2014 production. We don’t recommend him in any format. A regression to 400-500 yards with 3-4 touchdowns seems likely.

WR Denarius Moore

Unreliable and wildly inconsistent during his first four years in the league with the Oakland Raiders, Denarius Moore brings his outstanding speed to the Bengals in 2015. While Moore’s career arc is clearly pointing down, he rates as a player to keep on the back burner given that Marvin Jones is returning from injury and Mohamed Sanu rates as a poor option to play alongside A.J. Green. If Jones doesn’t return to form and Moore works his way into the starting lineup, he could produce the odd big week and be worthy of a roster spot in deeper leagues.

TE Tyler Eifert

Coming off a productive rookie season in which he caught 39 passes for 445 yards and a pair of touchdowns after being taken in the 1st round of the 2013 NFL Draft, Eifert was expected to take another step forward in his 2nd season and relegate Jermaine Gresham to more of a backup role. However, a dislocated elbow ended his season after just one game, putting his breakout hopes on hold. With Gresham not back for 2015, Eifert once again rates as a potential breakout player but he has some roadblocks in his way. Wide receiver Mohamed Sanu emerged as a solid receiving option in 2014, Marvin Jones returns from injury and running back Giovani Bernard has averaged 50 receptions per year during his two seasons in the league. While we expect the Bengals to throw the ball more in 2015, Eifert remains a low end TE2 in redraft formats and a good but not great prospect in dynasty leagues.

Also see: Cincinnati Bengals IDP Team Report | Cleveland Browns Team Report

Cincinnati Bengals IDP Team Report

July 7, 2015 By IDPManor Leave a Comment

Two years ago, the Cincinnati Bengals ranked tenth in the NFL in sacks, getting to opposing quarterbacks 43 times. Last year, that number free-fell to dead last in the league at 20. A bounce-back there could be a key to a return trip to the playoffs for the Bengals in 2015, but there are more than a few questions facing the team on defense.

Defensive Linemen

The Cincinnati defensive line will be anchored in 2015 by sixth-year defensive end Carlos Dunlap, who set career highs in both tackles (66) and sacks (8) a year ago. Those numbers were good enough to land Dunlap at the back end of IDP DL1 territory in 12-team leagues a year ago, and while the 26-year-old can be prone to bouts of inconsistency, Dunlap is in the IDP DL1 conversation this year given his talent and every-down workload.

After tearing his ACL midway through the 2013 season, defensive tackle Geno Atkins was a shell of his usual dominant self last season. However, Geoff Hobson of the team’s website writes that Atkins could be set for a rebound in 2015. “From what I’ve seen,” Hobson said, “the best news (from OTAs) is that Atkins seems to be moving a lot better than he did last spring and that bodes well.” That also bodes well for Atkins’ odds of being an IDP value in 2015, especially in DT-required formats.

In 2012, defensive end Michael Johnson rode 11.5 sacks to a DL1 finish in fantasy points and a franchise tag designation from the team. In the two years’ since (including a disastrous one-year stint with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a year ago), Johnson has managed only 7.5. At 28 Johnson is still plenty young enough to recapture past glories, but Johnson isn’t worth investing in as more than a low-end IDP DL2 in 2015.

Linebackers

Entering the 2014 season, it looked like outside linebacker Vontaze Burfict was ready to join the NFL’s elite at his position. Then last year’s injury-marred disaster of a season happened, and coming off microfracture surgery Burfict’s 2015 prospects are muddy at best. Still, Hobson reported that defensive coordinator Paul Guenther remains optimistic that Burfict will be ready for the season opener.

“The plan,” Hobson said, “calls for Burfict to be back in time to play a pre-season game or two in preparation for the regular season. That’s an optimistic sign because if he practices just once, he’s not allowed to go on the physically unable to perform list (PUP), which would keep him off the practice field for the first six weeks of the regular season.”

Unfortunately, we don’t share Guenther’s optimism. And given a crowded Cincinnati linebacker corps that includes holdovers Emmanuel Lamur, Rey Maualuga and Vincent Rey, free-agent signee A.J. Hawk and rookie Paul Dawson, we may not know who’s going to slot where (and who will be playing in subpackages) until well into the preseason – and that makes any of those players speculative IDP options at best.

Defensive Backs

Josh Kirkendall of SB Nation recently called free safety Reggie Nelson arguably the Bengals most under-appreciated defender. “There are no Pro Bowl commendations or All-Pro celebrations for Nelson,” Kirkendall said, “and save for the noticeable flow of tightly woven dreads bouncing around in the defensive backfield, you might be inclined to forget about him. Yet, reliability and stability in Cincinnati’s evolving secondary are common core descriptions which define Nelson.”

Nelson rode a career-high 95 tackles to a top-15 fantasy finish in 2014, and with a reasonable asking price in IDP drafts the 31-year-old is a decent late flier pick in the secondary.

Also see: Cincinnati Bengals Team Report | Cleveland Browns IDP Team Report

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC North

June 10, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Baltimore Ravens

“Quarterback Whisperer” Marc Trestman is the Ravens new OC, which one would assume means an uptick for QB Joe Flacco and RB Justin Forsett in the passing game. The problem with boosting Flacco is he’s already thrown pass attempts in excess of former Trestman protégé Jay Cutler in recent years, and his supporting cast consists of two rookies and a very late bloomer or journeyman RB amongst his top four pass catchers. You can be bullish about Flacco, but he’s still considered just a fringe starter or reliable backup.
We’ve currently got Forsett in line with his catches last season, which should arguably go up. Matt Forte caught 74 and 102 receptions in his two seasons under Trestman. However, Forsett is not Forte. Forsett bounced around playing for four different teams through six seasons before finally breaking out last year. That’s a red flag, or at least a caution. Lorenzo Taliaferro wasn’t particularly impressive as a rookie, so the team added Javorius Allen via the NFL Draft. How effective these guys are is the main threat to Forsett’s workload.
Steve Smith started off hot last season with four touchdowns, four 100-yard games in the first six weeks. Then there was a noticeable fade. Does he have another 1,000-yard season in him? Possible given the opportunity, but not great odds.
The Ravens need at least one of rookies Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams (preferably both) to make an immediate impact. The team is optimistic Dennis Pitta will play this season but it looks 50-50 at best right now.

Cincinnati Bengals

Fantasy players don’t like Andy Dalton. He failed to crack 3,400 yards or 20 TD passing last season, but I still had to double check why (at the time) his 12-team ADP was n/a on our initial online cheatsheets. It’s a running team. The Bengals would be quite content to keep him under 500 pass attempts.
Giovani Bernard looked like he might be the next Jamaal Charles-esque all-purpose back after his rookie season in 2013. Then Jeremy Hill came to town and all bets are off. Hill overtook Bernard producing over 1,300 yards on 222 carries and 27 receptions. Bernard missed a few games, still chipped in over 1,000 yards on over 200 touches, but the coaching staff showed a lot more confidence in Hill. Hills’ yards-per-carry is half a yard better. He’s the guy to own. Bernard only if he drops too far to present good value.
One of the best receivers in the game is A.J. Green, but the run heavy philosophy begets a slight downgrade from Green’s 3-year weighted average. Mohamed Sanu filled in pretty well when Green was out and Marvin Jones was lost for the season. Now Sanu and Jones will challenge each other for snaps. Jones wins, if healthy.
Veteran Jermaine Gresham is a free agent still on the market, leaving Tyler Eifert who has done little in his NFL career, and rookie Tyler Kroft. Eifert is an end-game flier if you need a second TE, but more than likely this position on the Bengals is a fantasy wasteland. Surprising, since the knock on Dalton is his deep ball.

Cleveland Browns

Our projections need some adjustment here. Since initially prepping these, media reports Josh McCown is the clear cut starter and Johnny Manziel is not really in the discussion. Makes sense. Neither are worth drafting.
The running back position was tough to figure out last season. It isn’t any clearer this season, and potentially worse, since last year we could write-off Ben Tate pretty early on. This year, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson are all in the picture for carries. We’ve got it Crow-West-Johnson, but none with enough carries to get to 1,000 yards. Losing OC Kyle Shanahan does not help matters.
Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline arrive to take over the top two receiver spots. Bowe’s 1,000 yard seasons are a distant memory. Can you believe he caught 15 TD in 2010? This is a dismal depth chart. Robert Housler is interesting to the extent if he does perform for fantasy, we get to see how many pundits put their hand up and say, “see, called it” [three years ago].

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in scoring, within 10 points of 3rd. No significant losses and his receivers are more than likely better. Note he’s getting drafted 8th to 9th QB off the board.
Le’Veon Bell is currently suspended the first three games of the season, and that is a bummer. He blew past 350 touches last season. The forced time off scales him back to around 300. Discount accordingly but not too much because it is his points-per-game that matter. Hopefully rust is short lived once he’s back in late September. DeAngelo Williams backs up Bell and has some value knowing he will start three games.
Big Ben and Antonio Brown are in a zone. I’ve seen Brown go first WR off the board in some early drafts, and I can’t knock it. Best bet to top 100 receptions this season. Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton are a young, exciting pair, particularly Bryant, but not ready to cut into Brown’s production. Bryant might be a tough decision to start each week on your fantasy team, but he didn’t play the first six weeks last season and then proceeded to score in 7 of 11 games played. Impressive.
Some pegged the Steelers to draft a TE replacement for Heath Miller. Not yet. A blah pick but provides an acceptable return if you are last to draft the position.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series