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The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI

March 3, 2019 By kopasetic 2 Comments

Who will bring home the coveted TGFBI crown in 2019?

During the 2018 offseason, Justin Mason of FanGraphs, Friends With Fantasy Benefits and Fantasy Alarm organized a new industry league, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. TGFBI is a series of 5X5 15-team mixed leagues using the standard NFBC lineup: 14 hitters (including 2 catchers), 9 pitchers and 7 bench spots; no disabled list / injured list.

Last year there were 195 fantasy baseball writers distributed into 13 different leagues. Similar to the NFBC Main Event, Mason included an overall competition component to the event. The overall standings were compiled from 195 points to 1 point for each of the ten fantasy categories. Clay Link of RotoWire emerged as the overall champ last season.

TGFBI grew significantly for 2019! There are 315 writers forming 21 leagues. Yours truly made it in just before the cutoff and was assigned to League 21. The slow draft started on Sunday, February 24th. Gather around kids and listen to the tale of my draft, so far.

Pre-Draft Prep

I pick from the 10th slot. You can follow along checking the online draft board.
I set up Draft Buddy choosing the ATC projections. Ariel Cohen’s approach is the way I would compile average projections if I did them.
I refer to my Target Percentages philosophy / method in this draft recap.

Using last season’s data I determined the target levels needed for hitting are 294 homeruns, 1,051 runs, 1,011 RBI, 137 stolen bases and a .263 batting average. For pitching 93 wins, 79 saves, 1,440 strike outs, a 3.57 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. These are an average of 3rd and 4th place in each category. Hitting these target numbers should get me about 125 roto points and enough to win my league.

Now, on to the draft picks.

Pick 1.10, 10th overall – SP Chris Sale

With the 10th pick I knew that Trout, Betts, Scherzer, Ramirez, Martinez, Arenado, Yelich and Acuna would be gone. If one of them happened to fall to me I would pounce like a dog on a bone. So, in my head this pick is between Trea Turner, Jake deGrom and Chris Sale.

First, choosing between deGrom and Sale. Although deGrom is going before Sale in most drafts, I am firmly in the Sale camp. Here’s why: Sale gives you a much better edge in WHIP than deGrom (or any other pitcher for that matter). Also, deGrom was lucky last season so, while still a very good pitcher, I am cautious drafting him this season.

Pitcher	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Sale	16%	0%	17%	3.00	4.00
deGrom	16%	0%	17%	3.25	2.75

So it boils down to Sale versus Turner. Maybe it is me, but I’m not as high on Turner as many seem to be. Out of curiosity I wanted to know how he performed with Bryce Harper out of the lineup (because you may have heard that Harper ain’t coming back to the Nation’s capital).

Over the past two seasons there were 35 games Turner played while Harper was not in the lineup. In those games he hit .267/.327/.445 with 4 HR, 16 RBI and 9 stolen bases. Compare that to what ATC is projecting:

Name	G	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
w/o Harper (prorated)	151	99	17	69	39	0.267
ATC Projection	151	98	19	73	43	0.282

More or less the same outside of batting average. Well, this is enough to give me pause. I changed Turner’s projections to match the prorated numbers and re-compiled Draft Buddy to see the effect it would have on his value. He went down from $24 to $21. Welcome to the team, Chris Sale!

Pick 2.06, 21st overall – 1B Freddie Freeman

With pitching out of the way, I need a bat. The next group of batters and their target percentage contributions from Draft Buddy:

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Stanton	14%	9%	11%	3%	0.25
Freeman	9%	9%	10%	6%	3.50
Goldschmidt	11%	9%	10%	7%	2.00
Machado	12%	8%	10%	8%	1.75
Blackmon	9%	10%	7%	7%	2.75
Benintendi	6%	9%	8%	15%	1.75
Merrifield	4%	8%	7%	27%	1.75

With my first batter I want someone who can contribute to all 5 categories. In target percentage terms that means anything 7% and over (100% divided by 14 hitters = 7.14%) and a positive batting average. That being said, Benintendi and Merrifield are eliminated from consideration. Now, Freeman has that 6% in steals that normally would eliminate him from my decision. What he lacks in steals he more than makes up for in batting average.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the ratio categories are harder to catch up late in the draft and even harder from the waiver wire. Over the years I’ve realized that the best strategy is to build up a surplus in the ratios and withdraw from it later in the draft to catch up in the counting stats.

Although, Stanton’s bombs and RBI are appealing, the lack of average would put me in a bad spot. So, he is out. Blackmon is an outfielder, so I removed him from my decision based on position scarcity. I can find outfielders later.

Machado or one of the first baseman. First, Freeman or Goldschmidt? They are very close. Freeman nearly doubles up Goldy in average which makes up for the home run and stolen base difference. So, Freeman versus Machado. Maybe it was the thought of Machado in San Diego surrounded by that so-so lineup or maybe it is because I’m a Braves fan. Either way, I went with Freeman.

Pick 3.10, 40th overall – OF Starling Marte

With Sale in the 1st I am comfortable focusing on getting another batter.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
K.Davis	14%	9%	11%	1%	-1.25
Rizzo	10%	8%	10%	4%	1.25
Bellinger	11%	8%	9%	9%	0.00
Hoskins	13%	9%	10%	3%	-0.50
Marte	6%	8%	7%	24%	1.25
Rendon	9%	8%	9%	3%	2.25

Even though I just mentioned I have a nice surplus of batting average from drafting Freeman, I’m not quite ready to start making withdrawals. For that reason, I’m passing on Davis and Hoskins here. At the same time, I’m admitting to myself that I’ll be chasing home runs later in the draft.

Some may disagree with this approach but I am going to pass on Rizzo since I don’t need another 1B and don’t want to fill my corner infield spot right now.

So Bellinger, Marte or Rendon. As much as I would love to take Bellinger and his 11% dingers, he neither hurts nor helps me in average and my strategy is always to bank the ratios early. I have to pass. I ultimately went with Marte solely for the stolen bases. He’s the only player out there that gets you nearly 25% of your steals and doesn’t handicap you in the other categories.

Name (ADP)	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Marte (37)	6%	8%	7%	24%	1.25
Villar (82)	5%	6%	5%	31%	-0.25
M.Smith (99)	2%	7%	4%	30%	0.75
D.Gordon (109)	1%	7%	4%	28%	1.00
Hamilton (164)	1%	6%	3%	29%	-1.25

So with Freeman and Marte:

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Freeman	9%	9%	10%	6%	3.50
Marte	6%	8%	7%	24%	1.25
Batting Total	15%	17%	17%	30%	4.75

Pick 4.06, 51st overall – SS Xander Bogaerts

I probably should take another pitcher but there is player available that is too good to pass up – Bogaerts.

I mentioned early when I selected Freeman about trying to get a player that helps me in all 5 categories. I call them the 5-star players. Well, the last 5-star player is still out there. I noticed that his ADP 48 put him just before where I would be picking in the 4th round but I didn’t want to reach for him back in the 3rd. I don’t hesitate and snag him quickly here.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Previous Batting Total	15%	17%	17%	30%	4.75
Bogaerts	7%	8%	9%	8%	1.75
New Batting Total	22%	25%	26%	38%	6.50

Pick 5.10, 70th overall – RP Kenley Jansen

I’m predicting a #closerrun so I decide to grab Jansen who is number two overall on my sheet.

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Sale	16%	0%	17%	3.00	4.00
Jansen	3%	48%	6%	0.75	1.25
Pitching Total	19%	48%	23%	3.75	5.25

Pick 6.06, 81st overall – OF Eddie Rosario

I was wrong on the closer run, only two were drafted after I picked Jansen. Nothing really appeals to me on the pitching side, so I take Rosario whom I picked over Castellanos due to the slight advantage in steals.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Previous Batting Total	22%	25%	26%	38%	6.50
Rosario	9%	8%	8%	7%	1.25
New Batting Total	31%	33%	34%	45%	7.75

Pick 7.10, 100th overall – SP Charlie Morton

I was off by one round on the closer run, five went off the board since my last pick. Time to take another starting pitcher.

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Previous Pitching Total	19%	48%	23%	3.75	5.25
Morton	13%	0%	12%	0.00	-0.50
New Pitching Total	32%	48%	35%	3.75	4.75

Pick 8.06, 111th overall – 1B Matt Olson

Time to get some home runs. Using the “Top 25” tab in Draft Buddy, I see that Olson is at top of the list of undrafted hitters for HR and RBI. He’s also second in Runs. It is time to make a withdrawal from the batting average surplus.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Previous Batting Total	31%	33%	34%	45%	7.75
Olson	11%	8%	9%	1%	-1.00
New Batting Total	42%	41%	43%	46%	6.75

Pick 9.10, 130th overall – 2B Brian Dozier

Time to grab my second baseman. Again, since I am +6.75 in AVG, I can afford to take the -1.50 hit from the highest rated 2B left on my board.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Previous Batting Total	42%	41%	43%	46%	6.75
Dozier	9%	8%	8%	9%	-1.50
New Batting Total	51%	49%	51%	55%	5.25

Pick 10.06, 141st overall – SS Tim Anderson

There were a few pitchers I was hoping would fall to me here. Unfortunately, Darvish, Hendricks and Tanaka were all selected so I turned my attention towards a bat.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Previous Batting Total	51%	49%	51%	55%	5.25
Anderson	6%	7%	6%	18%	-0.75
New Batting Total	57%	56%	57%	73%	4.50

After 10 rounds I’m more than halfway towards my target levels in all hitting categories and my average is positive. This is good because, I will need to continue to chip into that batting average surplus in the later rounds.

As for pitching, I’ve got some work ahead of me but I am in good shape. Much like batting average, I’ll be siphoning off of my ERA and WHIP surplus as I continue to add arms throughout the last 20 rounds.

Make sure to cheer me on for the League 21 and overall title in TGFBI!

Draft Buddy’s 2019 Fantasy Baseball Projections

February 28, 2019 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Draft Buddy has its own brand 2019 fantasy baseball projections. This is how we made it happen.

For the first time we have our own Draft Buddy brand fantasy baseball projections.

These projections are available in Draft Buddy draft software and Last Player Picked. They form the basis for our 2019 fantasy baseball rankings.

The projections are based on Steamer with our own playing time adjustments. Steamer projections from Fangraphs include playing time that is inconsistent with other trusted sources. This creates significant outliers in our ranking results.

If we improve the fantasy baseball projections then it ultimately improves the rankings output. That is the motivation for the Draft Buddy projections.

Steamer Base + Playing Time

Steamer is a proven solid resource for projecting hitter and pitcher metrics with its model dating back to 2008. There is little reason for me to pull Steamer apart.

However, the projected playing time is another story. Projected plate appearances for hitters and projected innings for pitchers is something to analyze for reasonableness, risk, etc. And, we can make changes to better reflect our best-educated guesses for the upcoming season.

Instead of “simply” going team-by-team through the depth charts and pegging a playing time projection for every player, I thought a better first exercise is to gather existing playing time data to review. This way, we can see the range of playing times for each player.

Fantasy baseball analysis naturally lends itself to a lot of number crunching. If you note a player you are particularly high or low on is at the opposite end of your expectations when you calculate his value against his projections, it may not be because he is a better or worse ballplayer than you thought. His underlying metrics may be right on par with your expectations. However, his projected playing time may be far different than you envisioned, suppressing or inflating his value.

If we review the range of projected playing times, then we can assess if a particular projection set is unusually high or low in expected playing time for a player. Once we determine our own playing time estimate for a player, we apply those to the Steamer projections to form our own projections set.

Collecting Playing Time Data

I began pulling projected playing time data from various sources. These were from projection sets already included in Draft Buddy: ATC, THE BAT, Steamer and Zeile from FantasyPros.

In addition, I collected playing time data from Razzball, by Rudy Gamble, who does a similar process for his projections, using Steamer and applying his own playing time adjustments. I also added Roster Resource, an excellent go-to for projected MLB depth charts and therefore a natural to estimate playing time.

After compiling this data in my baseball database, I produced playing time comparison reports by team for each of hitters and pitchers. Here is the Minnesota Twins hitters as an example:

+--------------------+------+-----+--------+--------+------+------+------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+-----+
| Name               | Team | Pos | Roster | batOrd | ATC  | BAT  | Razz | RR   | Steam | Zeile | Count | High | Low |
+--------------------+------+-----+--------+--------+------+------+------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+-----+
| Jorge Polanco      | MIN  | SS  | 25     | 1      |  617 |  614 |  635 |  656 |   641 |   606 |     6 |  656 | 606 |
| C.J. Cron          | MIN  | 1B  | 25     | 2      |  460 |  497 |  507 |  313 |   529 |   499 |     6 |  529 | 313 |
| Eddie Rosario      | MIN  | LF  | 25     | 3      |  623 |  635 |  654 |  604 |   622 |   599 |     6 |  654 | 599 |
| Nelson Cruz        | MIN  | DH  | 25     | 4      |  557 |  621 |  603 |  610 |   606 |   593 |     6 |  621 | 557 |
| Max Kepler         | MIN  | RF  | 25     | 5      |  600 |  607 |  579 |  592 |   594 |   569 |     6 |  607 | 569 |
| Jonathan Schoop    | MIN  | 2B  | 25     | 6      |  561 |  552 |  594 |  583 |   525 |   547 |     6 |  594 | 525 |
| Miguel Sano        | MIN  | 3B  | 25     | 7      |  506 |  586 |  573 |  565 |   545 |   544 |     6 |  586 | 506 |
| Jason Castro       | MIN  | C   | 25     | 8      |  307 |  410 |  311 |  367 |   339 |   296 |     6 |  410 | 296 |
| Byron Buxton       | MIN  | CF  | 25     | 9      |  479 |  517 |  488 |  512 |   484 |   504 |     6 |  517 | 479 |
| Ehire Adrianza     | MIN  | 2B  | 25     |        |  229 |  145 |  109 |   64 |   177 |   225 |     6 |  229 |  64 |
| Marwin Gonzalez    | MIN  | OF  | 25     |        |  511 |  595 |  516 |  515 |   542 |   523 |     6 |  595 | 511 |
| Tyler Austin       | MIN  | 1B  | 25     |        |  219 |  172 |  181 |  156 |   175 |   245 |     6 |  245 | 156 |
| Mitch Garver       | MIN  | C   | 25     |        |  313 |  171 |  267 |  176 |   208 |   279 |     6 |  313 | 171 |
| LaMonte Wade       | MIN  | LF  | 40     |        | NULL |    7 |   50 | NULL |     7 |  NULL |     3 |   50 |   7 |
| Luis Arraez        | MIN  | 2B  | 40     |        | NULL |    7 |   50 | NULL |     7 |  NULL |     3 |   50 |   7 |
| Lucas Duda         | MIN  | 1B  | 40     |        |  316 | NULL |  111 |    0 |  NULL |   312 |     4 |  316 |   0 |
| Michael Reed       | MIN  | RF  | 40     |        |   50 |   90 |   48 | NULL |    60 |   173 |     5 |  173 |  48 |
| Willians Astudillo | MIN  | C   | 40     |        |  293 |  125 |  276 |   97 |   186 |   272 |     6 |  293 |  97 |
| Ronald Torreyes    | MIN  | 2B  | 40     |        |   98 |  138 |  110 |    0 |   125 |   178 |     6 |  178 |   0 |
| Jake Cave          | MIN  | CF  | 40     |        |  289 |  193 |  179 |  193 |   198 |   272 |     6 |  289 | 179 |
| Zack Granite       | MIN  | CF  | 40     |        | NULL |   28 |   50 | NULL |    27 |    36 |     4 |   50 |  27 |
| Nick Gordon        | MIN  | SS  | 40     |        |   22 |   34 |   50 | NULL |    33 |    63 |     5 |   63 |  22 |
| Tomas Telis        | MIN  | C   | Minors |        | NULL | NULL | NULL | NULL |  NULL |    60 |     1 |   60 |  60 |
| Adam Rosales       | MIN  | 2B  | Minors |        |   20 | NULL |   82 |    0 |  NULL |   179 |     4 |  179 |   0 |
+--------------------+------+-----+--------+--------+------+------+------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+-----+
24 rows in set (0.01 sec)

There are some pretty big differences across our six data sets. Roster Resource is not on board with regular at-bats for C.J. Cron at only 313 as of late last week. This is updated to 354, but still a far cry from the 460 and up from other sources.

Nelson Cruz has a 64 PA difference, Jonathan Schoop almost 70 and Marwin Gonzalez over 80. Prospects are even tougher to peg because of the uncertainty when they will get the call up to the Majors.

Here are the Philadelphia Phillies pitchers:

+----------------------+------+-----+--------+---------+----------+------+------+------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+-----+
| Name                 | Team | Pos | Roster | Role    | Rotation | ATC  | BAT  | Razz | RR   | Steam | Zeile | Count | High | Low |
+----------------------+------+-----+--------+---------+----------+------+------+------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+-----+
| Aaron Nola           | PHI  | SP  | 25     | SP      | 1        |  197 |  194 |  197 |  213 |   194 |   198 |     6 |  213 | 194 |
| Jake Arrieta         | PHI  | SP  | 25     | SP      | 2        |  173 |  181 |  173 |  172 |   181 |   170 |     6 |  181 | 170 |
| Nick Pivetta         | PHI  | SP  | 25     | SP      | 3        |  162 |  169 |  149 |  143 |   160 |   155 |     6 |  169 | 143 |
| Vince Velasquez      | PHI  | SP  | 25     | SP      | 4        |  134 |  150 |  130 |  140 |   137 |   124 |     6 |  150 | 124 |
| Zach Eflin           | PHI  | SP  | 25     | SP      | 5        |  144 |  145 |  137 |  153 |   145 |   139 |     6 |  153 | 137 |
| David Robertson      | PHI  | RP  | 25     | CL      |          |   68 |   65 |   65 |   67 |    65 |    66 |     6 |   68 |  65 |
| Seranthony Dominguez | PHI  | RP  | 25     | SU      | 1        |   67 |   65 |   71 |   70 |    65 |    68 |     6 |   71 |  65 |
| Tommy Hunter         | PHI  | RP  | 25     | SU      | 2        |   61 |   55 |   55 |   55 |    55 |    61 |     6 |   61 |  55 |
| Juan Nicasio         | PHI  | RP  | 25     | Bullpen |          |   53 |   40 |   22 |   52 |    25 |    48 |     6 |   53 |  22 |
| Adam Morgan          | PHI  | RP  | 25     | Bullpen |          |   46 |   45 |   32 |   52 |    45 |    47 |     6 |   52 |  32 |
| Jose Alvarez         | PHI  | RP  | 25     | Bullpen |          |   49 |   40 |   25 |   45 |    30 |    45 |     6 |   49 |  25 |
| Hector Neris         | PHI  | RP  | 25     | Bullpen |          |   57 |   40 |   44 |   30 |    40 |    56 |     6 |   57 |  30 |
| Pat Neshek           | PHI  | RP  | 25     | Bullpen |          |   54 |   55 |   44 |   51 |    55 |    49 |     6 |   55 |  44 |
| Adonis Medina        | PHI  | SP  | 40     | SP      |          | NULL | NULL |    8 | NULL |     9 |  NULL |     2 |    9 |   8 |
| Jerad Eickhoff       | PHI  | SP  | 40     | SP      |          |   54 |    9 |    8 |   88 |     9 |    57 |     6 |   88 |   8 |
| Ranger Suarez        | PHI  | SP  | 40     | SP      |          | NULL | NULL |    7 | NULL |     9 |    16 |     3 |   16 |   7 |
| Drew Anderson        | PHI  | SP  | 40     | SP      |          | NULL |   19 |   26 | NULL |    19 |    16 |     4 |   26 |  16 |
| Enyel De Los Santos  | PHI  | SP  | 40     | SP      |          |   51 |   74 |   69 |   60 |    74 |    38 |     6 |   74 |  38 |
| Edubray Ramos        | PHI  | RP  | 40     | Bullpen |          |   31 |   20 |   19 | NULL |    10 |    34 |     5 |   34 |  10 |
| James Pazos          | PHI  | RP  | 40     | Bullpen |          |   37 |   40 |   29 | NULL |    35 |    46 |     5 |   46 |  29 |
| Victor Arano         | PHI  | RP  | 40     | Bullpen |          |   39 | NULL |   24 | NULL |    20 |    39 |     4 |   39 |  20 |
| Yacksel Rios         | PHI  | RP  | 40     | Bullpen |          |    7 |   20 |   24 | NULL |    15 |    21 |     5 |   24 |   7 |
| Austin Davis         | PHI  | RP  | 40     | Bullpen |          |   10 | NULL |   27 | NULL |    10 |    34 |     4 |   34 |  10 |
| Edgar Garcia         | PHI  | RP  | 40     | Bullpen |          | NULL | NULL |   24 | NULL |    10 |  NULL |     2 |   24 |  10 |
+----------------------+------+-----+--------+---------+----------+------+------+------+------+-------+-------+-------+------+-----+
24 rows in set (0.02 sec)

Pitcher changes are going to be very injury driven, so I expect to see less variation in projected innings than hitters’ plate appearances. I input the Roster Resource projections manually using a cut off of 75 PA and 30 IP, so there are additional players projected by RR but those numbers are not captured.

Draft Buddy Playing Time

Initial playing time values for the Draft Buddy projections are not a straight average of the available data. To me, that doesn’t make a lot of sense, in part because ATC and Zeile are averages themselves. Why take an average of an average?

Buddy numbers are unlikely to fall outside the range from the six sources. To start, they are a weighted average of some of the sets that I consider the most trusted. Going forward my plan is to manually review and adjust playing time by team. To help with this, individual team reports allow for news, research and comments about changes to playing time.

To produce the projections, playing time is applied to Steamer. The ratios such as batting average, ERA and WHIP should be the same (or close, due to rounding) between Steamer and Draft Buddy.

Jonathan Schoop has 525 PA per Steamer, but Draft Buddy playing time bumped him to 579. The image below from Schoop’s player page indicate AVG, OBP and SLG ratios are all the same.

The Curious Case of Chris Sale

Steamer loves Chris Sale. I mean, loves him. This is a good example of a projection system unable to adequately account for different risk levels between players. Running Steamer through Last Player Picked with 15-team NFBC settings, Sale values at $49.

Maybe the pitchers as a group are ranked too high relative to hitters by LPP, but regardless of that consideration, Sale is way ahead of Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and every other hurler. At issue is his projected ERA of 2.76 (2.94 for deGrom) and projected WHIP of 0.97 (1.03 for Scherzer). The differences really increase the value of Sale. Yet, few people would draft Sale ahead of Scherzer because of concerns over Sale’s relative probability of staying healthy.

Even reducing Sale’s projected IP, he still ranks very high thanks to the considerably lower ERA and WHIP projections. Instead of SP1, a more appropriate ranking for Sale is Top 4-5 among starting pitchers.

To accomplish that, I manually (subjectively) adjusted his dollar value and ranking. This is something that will happen with more players going forward, but since he is such a significant player I felt an early adjustment is warranted for him.

Missing In Action Players

One problem using the Steamer projections as a base is, what if they don’t project a certain player who we otherwise have projected playing time? This is not very common but it is worth noting the players this applied to. They are shown in the following two tables.

+-------+-----------------+------+-----+--------+-----------+-------+
| id    | Name            | Team | Pos | Roster | Positions | _PA   |
+-------+-----------------+------+-----+--------+-----------+-------+
|  6687 | Matt Joyce      | CLE  | RF  | Minors | OF        | 133.0 |
| 17584 | Mark Reynolds   | COL  | 1B  | 25     | 1B        | 116.0 |
| 18038 | Hunter Pence    | TEX  | CF  | Minors | OF        | 112.0 |
| 18599 | Drew Butera     | PHI  | C   | Minors | C         |  68.0 |
| 18961 | Adam Rosales    | MIN  | 2B  | Minors | 2B        |  51.0 |
| 19658 | Lucas Duda      | MIN  | 1B  | 25     | 1B        | 221.0 |
| 19658 | Lucas Duda      | MIN  | 1B  | 25     | DH        | 221.0 |
| 20351 | Brandon Guyer   | CWS  | RF  | 25     | OF        | 125.0 |
| 20573 | Isaac Galloway  | MIA  | CF  | Minors | OF        | 142.0 |
| 20911 | Ryan Flaherty   | CLE  | 3B  | Minors | 3B        |  69.0 |
| 21286 | Bryan Holaday   | MIA  | C   | Minors | C         |  71.0 |
| 22993 | John Andreoli   | SF   | CF  | Minors | OF        |  67.0 |
| 23731 | Jack Reinheimer | BAL  | SS  | 40     | SS        |  99.0 |
| 25060 | Charlie Tilson  | CWS  | LF  | FA     | OF        |  67.0 |
| 26247 | Daz Cameron     | DET  | CF  | Minors | OF        |  73.0 |
| 26249 | Mike Gerber     | SF   | CF  | Minors | OF        |  98.0 |
| 26284 | Bo Bichette     | TOR  | SS  | Minors | SS        | 101.0 |
| 26294 | Brendan Rodgers | COL  | SS  | Minors | SS        | 154.0 |
+-------+-----------------+------+-----+--------+-----------+-------+

+-------+----------------+------+-----+--------+-----------+--------+
| id    | Name           | Team | Pos | Roster | Positions | _IP    |
+-------+----------------+------+-----+--------+-----------+--------+
| 10758 | Jason Hammel   | TEX  | RP  | Minors | RP        |  63.00 |
| 10758 | Jason Hammel   | TEX  | RP  | Minors | SP        |  63.00 |
| 16352 | Homer Bailey   | KC   | SP  | Minors | SP        |  20.00 |
| 20478 | Tim Collins    | MIN  | RP  | Minors | RP        |  15.00 |
| 21787 | Oliver Drake   | TB   | RP  | Minors | RP        |  27.00 |
| 22380 | Danny Barnes   | TOR  | RP  | Minors | RP        |  33.00 |
| 22565 | Brandon Maurer | PIT  | RP  | Minors | RP        |  23.00 |
| 23058 | A.J. Cole      | CLE  | RP  | Minors | RP        |  28.00 |
| 23176 | Merrill Kelly  | ARI  | SP  | 25     | SP        | 138.00 |
| 23555 | Derek Law      | SF   | RP  | Minors | RP        |  36.00 |
| 26019 | Jared Miller   | ARI  | RP  | Minors | RP        |  16.00 |
+-------+----------------+------+-----+--------+-----------+--------+

The only player I truly feel should be included in our projections but is not at this time is Merrill Kelly. He will either show up in Steamer next time, or I will manually add him to our projections.

Final Thoughts

As a first attempt at creating our own projections, I am pretty happy with the results. Not that we want to ultimately create a rankings list that is the same as Average Draft Position, but there are fewer outliers as a result of odd playing time estimates. We have a good base to build on.

This process increased my already healthy respect for the work prognosticators put in to help us value players for fantasy sports. It is a lot of numbers and a lot of time, and a potentially never-ending saga making adjustments, trying different approaches, fine-tuning things, etc. Props to Ariel Cohen, Derek Carty, Jared Cross (and crew), Rudy Gamble, Jason Martinez and FantasyPros for their contributions to fantasy baseball that help this project.

It also drives home for me how pure number-generated rankings are not perfect (i.e. Chris Sale). The numbers help immensely, and then we also need to look beyond the numbers as a sanity check. A combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative risk-reward decisions is the best way to consider all angles and to ultimately draft the best fantasy baseball team possible.

MLB All-Star Break Re-Do Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 2

July 18, 2018 By avanfossan Leave a Comment

Andy is back with Round 2 of his do-over fantasy baseball draft. One of the surprises is Cincinnati Reds 3B Eugenio Suarez taken with the 14th overall pick.

Last week I traveled back in time (not literally) to change my draft. In essence, a well-deserved do-over fantasy baseball mock draft round 1.

The first round was not really out of the ordinary but it did have some shakeups compared to Average Draft Position (ADP) from the beginning of the year. The second round has even more surprises.

This is a 12-team snake draft, standard 5×5 roto fantasy baseball league. I include ADP from the start of the year and the first round pick for each slot, after the player I would draft now if I could do it all over again.

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 2

13. Chris Sale Preseason ADP #13, Corey Kluber · 1st Round Pick, Corey Kluber

I could have easily picked an offensive player but the chance of grabbing two stud starting pitchers back-to-back was too good to pass up. Kluber the first choice because of his divisional opponents and his ability to pad stats. Sale this time because he’s a stud, pure and simple. Yes, he does face the AL East, specifically the Yankees, plenty but otherwise dominates on the mound.

14. Eugenio Suarez Preseason ADP #14, Carlos Correa · 1st Round Pick, Aaron Judge

I said this would have some surprises. Going with Judge in the first round really assured me a building block in the outfield. Suarez allows me to do the same in the infield. He’s currently hitting .315 with 19 home runs and 68 RBI’s for a Reds team that is in last place (although if they played the Cubs a little more they might be in first place).

Correa is a popular pick but I am reminded of last year when the Astros didn’t have one hitter with over 100 RBI, and Correa’s numbers weren’t that off the charts. He had 24 home runs and drove in 84 but only stole two bases. Suarez currently is on pace to blow by Correa’s numbers from last year.

15. Paul Goldschmidt Preseason ADP #15, Kris Bryant · 1st Round Pick, Max Scherzer

At this pick I have my stud pitcher with Scherzer and now have a potential steal with the 15th overall pick in Goldschmidt. Goldy is starting to heat up as the D-Backs are finally getting healthy. He’s been on fire this month upping his home runs total to 20 while driving in 51. He’s got a ways to go to match his numbers from last year but he’s on the right track. The thing that makes Goldschmidt such a steal with this pick is the potential for Goldy to steal double digit bags as a first baseman. He needs to run more to make this happen but I’m happy with him at 15.

16. Freddie Freeman Preseason ADP #16, Manny Machado · 1st Round Pick, Luis Severino

The Braves are supposed to win next year, not lead the NL East in 2018. Freeman is a known commodity in fantasy baseball and to the diehard fan but the casual baseball fan may not be familiar with his talents. He’s hitting .315 with 16 home runs and 59 RBI. He also has eligibility at third base which is a big plus as well.

17. Justin Verlander Preseason ADP #17, Joey Votto · 1st Round Pick, Francisco Lindor

OK, I get it – enough pitching already. My strategy is usually to get a top of the line starter in the first two rounds. This year saw a lot of borderline number ones to get gobbled up early and often. Verlander is the pick for me at 17. He’s cooled off a little bit since his blistering start but he still has a 2.05 ERA and 160 punch outs. The nice thing about Verlander is that he’s going to get wins with the Astros and that for me puts him inside the Top 20.

18. Jacob deGrom Preseason ADP #18, Aaron Judge · 1st Round Pick, J.D. Martinez

I can’t be too hypocritical with this pick but having Martinez anchoring my outfield, this would be the best time to get a top of the rotation starter. deGrom is having a 2010 Felix Hernandez, Cy Young-type season. In that season, King Felix was 13-12 for the M’s with a 2.27 ERA and 232 strikeouts. deGrom is in a similar situation with the Mets. He’s currently 5-4 with a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 142 strikeouts. The question is, will the Mets trade deGrom to a contending team? If he does, his wins will undoubtedly rise. If he doesn’t, he is still worth drafting in the mid-second round.

19. Javier Baez Preseason ADP #19, Freddie Freeman · 1st Round Pick, Jose Ramirez

I’ll be the first to admit, I never thought I’d be typing Javier Baez as a 19th overall pick in a fantasy baseball draft. I’m not a Javier Baez fan in the least bit. However, I need to put my subjectivity aside and look at the numbers he’s putting up this year.

Baez is clearly the Cubs’ offensive MVP with a stat line of: .291 avg, 17 jacks, 65 RBI and 17 stolen bases. He’s also in the top 20 in runs scored. These numbers make him a solid pick at this point of the draft.

20. Clayton Kershaw Preseason ADP #20, Francisco Lindor · 1st Round Pick, Manny Machado

This pick may surprise some but I can’t in good conscious let Kershaw fall any further. I didn’t like him in the pre-season draft because of his proneness to injury (back). The same verse has been sung again this year. Kershaw missed time due to back issues and therefore won’t make 30 starts again. However, he’s still one of the top 8 starting pitchers in the league and even five months of Kershaw is better than no months at all.

21. Carlos Correa Preseason ADP #21, Anthony Rizzo · 1st Round Pick, Nolan Arenado

Along the same lines of Kershaw, I couldn’t let Correa slide any further. He’s a top three offensive shortstop when healthy and plays on a top team. He’s going to fill at least four of the five offensive categories (maybe not so much stolen bases). This year, he’s been on the DL with back stiffness and according to manager AJ Hinch, won’t be back before the All-Star break (https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Carlos-Correa-return-to-action-up-in-the-13058029.php). He’s a complete steal at pick 21.

22. Charlie Blackmon Preseason ADP #22, Jose Ramirez · 1st Round Pick, Jose Altuve

A potential 1st round pick last year, Blackmon hasn’t been his off the charts self this year. Although selected for the All-Star Game, his average is down considerably since last year (currently .277) and he’s not running much (five stolen bases). However, he does have 17 home runs and is still scoring a lot of runs. Having him at 22 is definite value and matching with Altuve should have this fantasy team near the top in runs scored.

23. Andrew Benintendi Preseason ADP #23, J.D. Martinez · 1st Round Pick, Mookie Betts

Pairing Benintendi with Betts wasn’t planned in the least bit but looking at what was available for value near the turn, I’m happy with this pick. I looked at Rizzo and Bryant and for a potential five category player, Benintendi was too good to pass up. Picking him allows me to not worry about the outfield for a little while.

24. Bryce Harper Preseason ADP #24, Gary Sanchez · 1st Round Pick, Mike Trout

I didn’t think it would end up like this but two of the young stars of baseball will end up on the same team in this do-over draft. Harper started out on fire but has turned ice cold since May. He’s hitting below .200 and isn’t doing a lot to help himself in his free agent year. However, he is among the league leaders in home runs and is near the top of baseball in walks.

So there you have it. The 12 team snake draft do-over. I will have to admit, I really enjoyed doing this a second time and like any good educator, learned from my mistakes from the first draft.

Extra Innings

There are a lot of “snubs” that always come up during the MLB All-Star Game selection process, but I’m not sure there is anything we can do about it. When the All-Star Game is played, you are rewarding players for the first half of the season, or sometimes on name recognition if they are established players and off to a slower than normal start.

Basketball and hockey use the same midseason format. Football maybe got it right (one of the few things) by having their Pro Bowl after the end of the regular season. Although that is more out of necessity, and the Pro Bowl is typically the least interesting of the four major sport all-star events. Perhaps there is no perfect way to have a true all-star game.

I would like to see the game reward players for the entire season, not just the first few months. However, baseball is such a grind that finding players who would: 1) play after a 162 game season, 2) play after the World Series, or 3) play in a meaningless game at the beginning of November, seems near impossible. I am open to ideas to improve the All-Star Game, what do you think?