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FPC Draft Recap and Observations Drafting From 5th Pick

August 31, 2015 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Last night I took part in the third of three leagues I signed up for in the Footballguys Players Championship (FPC) hosted by the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). I know, confusingly similar acronyms, but on the plus side, there is a $300,000 grand prize in the overall championship. Not that I expect to win the top prize among 7,500 teams, but I do expect to win at least one of these three leagues that awards $1,500 for first place. Two of three would be dandy.

In the previous two drafts, I had the 12th pick and the 2nd pick. This time the 5th pick, which is pretty good in my humble opinion. Here are some of my takes from the draft. Note for Draft Buddy customers, you can download each of the completed Draft Buddy files I used in these drafts so you can review the entire draft.

Let me start by saying that even though we have Adrian Peterson as the top RB on our board, I already got him in the draft where I had the second overall pick, so I felt perhaps I would diversify with this league. Leaving AP outside my Top 5 for this draft, I made a short list of Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and Rob Gronkowski for my first pick.

It turned out Julio Jones went 1.04 (I like it) leaving me Charles and Gronk to choose from. While many experts love Gronk in the first round, I’m not as much in that camp. I think it is doable. I think in this league in particular with 1.5 points-per-reception (PPR) for TE compared to 1 PPR for RB and WR, it makes sense mathematically, but I just don’t love taking a player first round in a spot where I only have to fill one starter.

Many experts are very much in support of the Upside Down drafting, or later called Zero-RB drafting methodology, forgoing RB in the first, even early rounds, for stud wide receivers instead and stockpiling middle round RB later. The first I read about it is from buddy Matt Waldman (2011), giving credit where credit is due. However, without getting into a lot of detail today, I disagree with that approach. I’ve always found a more balanced approach is best, RB-WR or WR-RB to open things up and leave you best set up to take advantage of players that unexpectedly fall in the draft, no matter what position they are.

First pick, I took Jamaal Charles.

When the second pick came around to me, DeMarco Murray – maybe Lamar Miller – were the only two RB remaining I really loved enough before seeing a big gap between them and the next group at RB. At WR, the current tier of Alshon Jeffery, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins and even Brandin Cooks was deeper. If I took a WR, Miller might make it back to me. If I took Murray, one of those WR – or Jimmy Graham – was much more likely to make it back to me. So, I took Murray.

Third round, one pick away and a bit surprisingly, Graham and Jeffery were both available, thanks in part to Joseph Randle going 3.01. The team in the 4 spot took Graham, leaving me Jeffery.

After three rounds I’ve got two star running backs, and Alshon Jeffery. I’m happy with that. Lets keep in mind it is a PPR league and I really do want a strong WR corps, so I think given my early picks I have less need to stockpile middle round RB and more emphasis at wideout. Also, keeping in mind TE do earn 1.5 PPR so need to constantly assess where a good one can be had, preferably at good draft value. Two are already off the board, and likely more before the draft gets back to me in the 4th round.

From here, maybe I’ll make some quicker bullet points by round. You can see how my roster took shape in the image above, and again, Draft Buddy users can download my completed Draft Buddy from last night’s draft.

Rounds 1 and 2

  • Nothing too out of the ordinary Round 1. Owners in the 4th, 11th and 12th spots all started WR-WR. Interesting that Randall Cobb (2.02) didn’t really get downgraded at all for his shoulder injury. Surprise pick: Brandin Cooks (2.09) but even more surprising: Mark Ingram (2.03). I’ve never seen Ingram go that high. In that owner’s shoes I would have risked he would get back to me in the 3rd, but I don’t have a problem with it, as he may very well could have missed out on him by waiting.

Round 3

  • Joseph Randle (3.01) seems quite high given very recent news item about full-blown RBBC in Dallas, and Darren McFadden looked better than Randle in the last preseason game.
  • Not surprisingly, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce (who I really like, but maybe not in this league since I already have Charles) and Martellus Bennett all went this round after Graham went.
  • First QB taken, Andrew Luck at 3.07. Still too early for me with all of the non-QB starter spots to fill.

Rounds 4 and 5

  • These rounds make me happy I went RB-RB to start. While there are certainly going to be some RB that pan out, you are still picking through many, “geez, I don’t know” options. Melvin Gordon (4.09) – maybe he hits, maybe he doesn’t. Todd Gurley (5.03) – seems really optimistic for this year. C.J. Spiller (5.11) – already sidelined, think very early bullish forecasts on Spiller are still causing him to get drafted high for my taste.
  • I took Davante Adams 4.08. Great offense, great QB, their best not injured WR right now. Definitely prefer to run with a less proven Adams in his situation than injured Emmanuel Sanders (4.04) or injured likely out Week 1, and doesn’t find the end zone much anyway, Julian Edelman (4.12).
  • My 5th round pick was a tough one. Jarvis Landry – high receptions but limited big plays and strong supporting cast to share with, good offense and QB – vs. Sammy Watkins – super talent, bad offense and QB. I said to my wife Sarah, “Bills WR?” to which she turned up her nose, and I knew she would do that so a bit of a leading question. It was more likely Watkins might make it back to me in the 6th round, so I took Landry, who I seem to like more than most.

Rounds 6 and 7

  • I was thinking Watkins obviously. Or Charles Johnson as a potential breakout candidate. I was thinking Arian Foster as I loved my start and at this point if he comes back in the Week 4-6 range, could be a huge boom to the bottom line. None made it to my 6.08 pick. Johnson actually went late-5th. Watkins was close, at 6.05.
  • In the meanwhile, Jason Witten and Kyle Rudolph both went, driving down the available good tight ends, and only one of the first four teams drafting after me had a TE at this point, so I added Delanie Walker (6.08).
  • Only QB I mentioned so far is Andrew Luck, but Aaron Rodgers also went in the 3rd, Ben Roethlisberger in the 6th, then Matt Ryan (7.01) and Drew Brees (7.04). Ultimately, this turned out to be one of the oddest order of QB I’ve seen drafted this year. Five QB are gone but Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning are still available? I would not normally take a QB this early but since no players were really standing out for me as must-haves, and Wilson looks like exceptional value, I tag Wilson.
  • Although Martavis Bryant getting drafted two spots later I may have strongly considered had I thought of him. He was down my cheatsheet given the most recent projection update.
  • More proof I’m glad I went RB early as Giovani Bernard and Danny Woodhead are getting drafted. I’d rather set my team apart at this stage with a Walker, Wilson, or regularly contributing WR, than be scraping together points from low-use RB who can be very good in short spurts but be tough to rely on them over the course of the season.

Rounds 8, 9 and 10

  • QB curiosity continued. Peyton went at 8.12, but Sam Bradford (9.03) and Teddy Bridgewater (9.07) went within spitting distance of him. Cam Newton still hasn’t been drafted and ultimately went QB16 at the top of the 14th round. Pretty baffling. Since I had Wilson I was determined to not spend very much at all on a second QB, but some great values there. All the more reason to not spend a 3rd round pick on Luck or Rodgers.
  • Still some good WR picks in here – Steve Smith, Roddy White (although getting a bit skeptical of him) – and RB picks are sketchy. LeGarrette Blount, who I’ve drafted numerous times already this year, could be good but could also be extremely frustrating to try to figure out what weeks to start him (after his suspension).
  • Given importance of the position and limited options with true upside, took Julius Thomas. He seems below the radar now since we haven’t heard much about him lately, but Jaguars offense seems to be clicking and JT appears in line to return Week 1.
  • At this point, I still only have 2 RB, so time to add some depth. DeMarco’s backup Ryan Mathews went 8.09 immediately after I took Thomas, so hitting on a starter at this point will be tough. Darren McFadden is available, every Cleveland RB is available. What if Arian Foster isn’t back as optimistically as recent news reports? What if he comes back and gets hurt again? I do think Alfred Blue is the clear guy to own over Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk, so I tag Blue who should start first part of the season and gives me time to work the waiver wire for other RB options to emerge.

I guess I will cut it off there for the commentary. While not an optimal high stakes, win the big overall prize strategy, I did handcuff Jamaal drafting Knile Davis in the 11th round. I feel good about the team, I might as well take out a little insurance on my top RB.

As usual, got sniped by a pick or two on a few guys, but its always going to feel that way. What I’ve learned is you can’t have every player you want, there are only so many roster spots available. I think I got some underrated, quality upside depth at decent value, and this team has a good shot to compete for the league championship, and maybe more!

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

Training Camp Fantasy Football News and Notes

August 5, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Confirmed: Houston Texans RB Arian Foster requires surgery on his injured groin and will therefore go on IR-designated to return. This is a big hit to the Texans and fantasy owners. Sophomore Alfred Blue is our best bet to soften the blow.

Confirmed: Houston Texans RB Arian Foster requires surgery on his injured groin and will therefore go on IR-designated to return. This is a big hit to the Texans and fantasy owners. Sophomore Alfred Blue is our best bet to soften the blow.

Screen Shot 2015-08-05 at 10.44.08 AMHere is a recap of key NFL news and notes from the last week impacting the fantasy football value of the players mentioned and their teammates. The big news is of course Arian Foster’s injury. I drafted him a week ago at the 12 spot in the $350 entry Footballguys Players Championship, so that really sucks!

Otherwise there are a number of key or interesting notes out of training camps prior to the first preseason games, many of which will factor in to our next projections and rankings update.

Free Agents of Interest

RB Chris Johnson
RB Pierre Thomas

Potential Roster Cuts

RB Trent Richardson, Raiders

Baltimore Ravens

Rookie WR Breshad Perriman is currently limited with a bruised knee. The more time he misses, the less likely he can make an immediate impact, although a couple rookies (Beckham, Bryant) did pretty well last season after sitting the first third of the season.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills QB situation is a muddled mess of low expectations regardless of who wins the starting job, but we need to know and the tea leaves suggest it is Matt Cassel right now based on experience.

Carolina Panthers

WR Stephen Hill was placed on IR, ending his comeback.

Chicago Bears

Kevin White is sidelined with a shin injury suffered during OTAs. He’s on the PUP (preseason version, no immediate panic necessary), but it isn’t looking good for him to be in the starting lineup anytime soon at this point. Eddie Royal gets a boost.

Cleveland Browns

RB Terrance West has a calf injury, while rookie Duke Johnson has a hamstring injury. The only one not complaining and perhaps due a bump up our rankings (?) is Isaiah Crowell.

Dallas Cowboys

A lot can change rather quickly, but the highly coveted starting RB job appears to be Joseph Randle’s to lose at this point. Darren McFadden is already dinged up.

Detroit Lions

RB Joique Bell is rehabbing from an Achilles’ and knee injury with no set timetable to return. This appears to be a little more serious than early drafts would indicate, as news of his health was pretty quiet. Heck, didn’t we see a “1,200 yard” prediction out of Bell just a few weeks ago? Rookie Ameer Abdullah has an opportunity for a larger role in the backfield and represents a good target for a later drafted RB.

Houston Texans

The news bigger than the sum of the rest of this entire update, Arian Foster suffered a groin injury. It is serious, requiring surgery which will put him on IR-designated to return (after Week 10), as reported by John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Behind him we prefer sophomore Alfred Blue, but they also have Jonathan Grimes, Chris Polk and are evaluating free agents including Pierre Thomas. Take a shot on Blue, but it could easily be a mess. Even if Foster can return, 10 weeks is a long time to hold a player on your roster (unless you have an open IR spot), so I wouldn’t even consider adding him in a draft unless the pick is really low.

No clarity on who has a leg up in this QB battle, Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Allen Hurns is ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, starting opposite Allen Robinson.

New York Giants

The team added WR James Jones, which is a bit curious since reports on Victor Cruz’ recovery are positive. Still, Jones might be worth an add in a 30-roster spot best-ball league.

New York Jets

Early indications are Geno Smith appears to be ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting QB job.

Another rookie WR with an injury, this time Devin Smith has a punctured lung (ouch) and will miss 4-6 weeks.

Oakland Raiders

RB Trent Richardson is in danger of being released by the team. My guess is you are already way ahead of that potential transaction with respect to your fantasy team. Michael Dyer is a name to keep tabs on from the Raiders backfield.

A player intriguing me lately with positive reports out of camp and drastically lower ADP than his rookie teammate is Michael Crabtree.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Sam Bradford is cleared for 11-on-11 drills with no restrictions.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Martavis Bryant is out 7-10 days for now with an elbow infection. His ADP has risen steadily in recent weeks, likely to the point of him being overvalued. This should slow that down for now.

Further putting the brakes on the Bryant hype train, QB Ben Roethlisberger stated recently Markus Wheaton will start in 2-WR sets opposite Antonio Brown. The fantasy pecking order could still easily be Brown, Bryant, Wheaton, but it gives one pause from being too bullish on Bryant. And maybe Wheaton is worth a late flier here or there.

San Diego Chargers

Rookie RB Melvin Gordon is apparently struggling with pass protection, which is no surprise from a rookie and will not help keep him on the field. Happy to have him in dynasty leagues but not that excited about using a 3rd round draft pick in redraft leagues to own him. More can go wrong than right.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The team named Doug Martin their starting tailback. This is what we expected to materialize from training camp. Hopefully it sticks, and the announcement will push his ADP up for those who have been asleep at the wheel up until now. I’ve been getting him as my third RB in drafts, most recently at the end of the 6th round in this best-ball league.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Houston Texans Team Report

July 21, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Houston Texans RB Arian Foster has proven capable of delivering big plays and of handling a workhorse role. Of course, the caveat there is when he is healthy.

Houston Texans RB Arian Foster has proven capable of delivering big plays and of handling a workhorse role. Of course, the caveat there is when he is healthy.

QB Ryan Mallett

Acquired from the New England Patriots during the 2014 offseason, Mallett spent most of last season buried on the depth chart behind journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Given an opportunity to start near the end of the season, he played well in one start before suffering a torn pectoral muscle in his next game which landed him on injured reserve. While Fitzpatrick was traded in the offseason, Brian Hoyer was signed in free agency and he will battle Mallett for the starter’s spot. While Hoyer’s experience gives him a slight edge, look for Mallett to win the job based on his higher upside and stronger arm. However, even if he becomes the starter, look for the Texans head coach Bill O’Brien to replicate his winning formula from 2014 which consisted of a strong running attack and solid defense. Mallett should be waiver wire material in redraft formats.

QB Brian Hoyer

Hoyer’s career prospects appeared to be on the rise during the first half of the Cleveland Browns season last year as he guided the team to a 6-3 record to open the year. From that, his performance declined badly as he struggled over his final five games, throwing just two touchdowns with nine interceptions and winning just one game. Benched for Johnny Manziel, Hoyer wasn’t re-signed during the offseason by Cleveland and will spend 2015 in Houston. While Hoyer has more experience for the starting position with the Texans than his competition in Ryan Mallett, it is difficult to predict him winning the job given his lack of upside and poor finish to the 2014 season.

RB Arian Foster

When healthy, Foster rates amongst the top running backs in the league both in real world and fantasy football terms. Equally adept as a runner and a receiver, Foster has proven capable of delivering big plays and of handling a workhorse role. Of course, the caveat there is when he is healthy. He missed eight games during the 2013 season as well as three games last year. Despite the missed time, he was one of fantasy’s most valuable running backs last season totaling 1,246 rushing yards, 327 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. With head coach Bill O’Brien having stated that the Texans will once again lean heavily on Foster in 2015, the only issue with adding him to your fantasy roster is his injury history. At 29 years of age, Foster is worth the risk as a mid to lower tier RB1 due to his workhorse role as a runner/receiver in Houston’s offense.

RB Alfred Blue

Taken in the 6th round of last year’s NFL Draft, Blue emerged as Arian Foster’s main backup in his rookie season, finishing the year with 528 rushing yards, a pair of touchdowns to go along with 15 receptions for 113 yards and another score. Filling in for an injured Foster, the 6’2”, 222 pound Blue played well in games against the Giants (88 total yards) and Browns (156 total yards) but struggled badly against a strong Bengals run defense, gaining just 46 yards on 16 carries. A middling talent, Blue averaged just 3.1 yards per carry which would generally relegate him to low end handcuff status. However, Arian Foster has missed 11 games over the past two seasons and has played in 16 games just twice during his six year career. Did we mention the Texans run the ball a lot? Blue rates as a must have handcuff for Foster owners but we have a hard time rating him as being worthy of a late round flyer if you didn’t draft Foster.

RB Chris Polk

Released by the Eagles in the offseason, Polk joins a crowded running back depth chart in Houston where he hopes to emerge as Arian Foster’s main backup. To do so, he will have to unseat second year player Alfred Blue who is coming off a decent but hardly spectacular rookie season. Polk earned a role at midseason last year working as a short yardage specialist, finishing the season with 172 yards and four touchdowns in eight games. With a nose for the end zone (seven career touchdowns in 14 games over two years), Polk would rate as a worthy handcuff to Foster owners provided he wins that role in the preseason.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

What to make of Hopkins fantasy prospects in 2015? Well, the 2013 1st round pick supplanted future Hall of Famer Andre Johnson as the Texans top wide receiver last season and his emergence resulted in Johnson requesting his release given his expected reduced role in Houston’s offense had he stuck around. In his second season in the league, Hopkins caught an impressive 76 of his 127 targets for 1,210 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 15.9 yards per reception, topping 15 yards-per-reception for the 2nd consecutive year. An emerging talent, the only question marks with Hopkins are whether he is a true number one receiver, capable of maintaining his production with more attention from opposing defenses, along with the Texans subpar quarterback depth chart. Well, the team’s quarterback shouldn’t be much worse (or better) than a year ago and we view Hopkins as having more than enough talent as a team’s leading wide receiver. He rates as an upper tier WR2, albeit one who brings some inconsistency. He had eight games last year with eight or fewer fantasy points.

WR Cecil Shorts

After a solid coming out party in 2012 when Shorts caught 55 passes for 979 yards and seven touchdowns, he has struggled over the past two seasons with injuries, inconsistency and subpar quarterback play as contributing factors in his declining production. With Jacksonville choosing to go with younger players at the wide receiver position, Shorts was left to sign with the Texans this offseason where he will battle Nate Washington and rookie 3rd round pick Jaelen Strong for playing time. With Shorts having caught barely more than half of his career targets (176 of 350) and his yards-per-reception having declined from 17.8 to 11.8 to 10.5, we aren’t confident that a career resurgence is in store for him in Houston, especially given the team’s issues at quarterback. Even if Shorts emerges as the starter opposite DeAndre Hopkins and given the team’s lack of a proven receiving options at tight end, we still rate him as little more than a WR5.

WR Nate Washington

Entering his 10th year in the league, Washington joins the Texans in 2015 after spending the last six years with the divisional rival Tennessee Titans. After topping 1,000 receiving yards for the 1st time in his career in 2011, over the past three years Washington has reverted to his main role for most of his career, that of a deep threat who occasionally pulls off a big week. With a reduced role last season in Tennessee, he managed just 40 receptions (his lowest total since 2008), 72 targets (lowest since 2007) and two touchdowns (the lowest total of his career). In Houston, Washington will battle fellow free agent signee Cecil Shorts and rookie 3rd round pick Jaelen Strong for a spot in the starting lineup. While Shorts is the favorite to win that role, Washington should emerge as a solid deep threat given his career average of 15.3 yards per reception. With Shorts’ injury history and Strong’s lack of experience, Washington should once again reel off a handful of strong performances. He rates as a potential waiver claim should injuries strike Shorts or DeAndre Hopkins.

WR Jaelen Strong

With the departure of Andre Johnson, the Texans spent the offseason replenishing their depth chart at wide receiver. Part of that equation was drafting Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong in the 3rd round. At 6’4” and 212 pounds, Strong has the size to emerge as a solid blocker in the Texans run heavy offense. However, he lacks top end speed and faces competition from veterans Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington for the starting position opposite DeAndre Hopkins. While we don’t rate Strong as being worthy of a roster spot in redraft formats, he does rate as a mid-tier prospect in dynasty formats and a player that could emerge as a starter at some point during 2015.

TE Garrett Graham

After posting career highs across the board in 2013 with 89 targets, 49 receptions, 545 yards and five touchdowns, there was some optimism that Graham would emerge as a low end TE1 last season. However, with the tight ends in new head coach Bill O’Brien’s offense not being heavily utilized in the passing game, and Graham suffering a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss five games, he managed just 18 receptions for 197 yards and a single touchdown. With 2014 3rd round pick C.J. Fiedorowicz nipping at his heels and the Texans going with a tight end unfriendly offensive game plan, Graham shouldn’t be on the fantasy radar until he strings together a few solid performances.

TE C.J. Fiedorowicz

The Texans spent a 3rd round pick to acquire Fiedorowicz in last year’s draft and watched him languish on the bench in his rookie season. Used primarily as a blocker, Fiedorowicz was targeted just seven times but possesses the most upside of the Texans tight ends at 6’6” and 265 pound with decent speed. Due to the Texans lack of size at the wide receiver position, Fiedorowicz could emerge as a weapon in the red zone and that is likely his avenue to being fantasy relevant in 2015. He rates as a waiver wire addition in redraft formats and as a low end dynasty prospect.

Also see: Houston Texans IDP Team Report · Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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