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Fantasy Impact from MLB Trade Deadline Deals – Machado, Osuna, Archer

August 3, 2018 By Rick Milleman Leave a Comment

A familiar face – 3B Manny Machado – in his new uni for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Many players traded places leading up to the MLB Trade Deadline. Rick gives us the fantasy impact of the key deals.

Holy that was a busy MLB trade deadline!

There were too many names traded to even try to cover them all. With every player going to a contender, a vacancy is created for a new player on a non-contending team and sometimes a player is blocked on the contending team with their new addition.

I do not intend to bother with trades like Zach Duke for Chase De Jong and Ryan Costello because the deal is too insignificant compared to the many bigger deals that went down. As the dust is settling, let’s see how the fantasy baseball landscape has changed as a result of the MLB trade deadline.

MLB Trade Deadline Deals

Manny Machado to the Dodgers

The biggest trade of all went down two weeks ago when Los Angeles Dodgers traded for Manny Machado. This guy will help any team’s offense, but his overall production could take a little bit of a dip going from the Baltimore Orioles bandbox to the pitcher’s haven at Chavez Ravine. But this guy is a stud and he will still put up good numbers anywhere.

Roberto Osuna to the Astros

Houston and Toronto traded closers with a bit of a tarnish. Houston grabbed Roberto Osuna right before he comes off suspension. The Astros are taking a bit of a public relations hit by adding a guy who was suspended for domestic abuse, but that won’t have any effect on your fantasy team. He is a relief ace and well worth adding if you can get him.

In return, Toronto acquired Ken Giles who was a darling closer before a mental meltdown lead him to a demotion to triple-A. The Blue Jays say he is going to be their closer as soon as he is promoted but unless your fantasy league collects points from minor league players, you are left to wait until Giles is promoted to Toronto to capitalize on that promise.

Asdrubal Cabrera to Phillies

In moving to Philadelphia, Asdrubal Cabrera’s value will remain stable, with maybe a few more runs scored. The most important value for Cabrera is that he is likely to pick up shortstop eligibility with the Phillies.

J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn to the Yankees

The Yanks added two starters to their starting rotation in different deals. Pitchers either thrive or wither when they end up in New York and I would bet on Happ to thrive. Count on wins and K’s as this veteran has pitched in the Big Apple many times as a visitor and should fit in quite nicely.

As for Lynn, there is no telling how he will do. He has had an off year and the unforgiving Bleacher Creatures might not take too well to him if he struggles out of the gate.

Zach Britton to New York Yankees, Jeurys Familia to Oakland, Brad Hand to Cleveland, Brad Brach to Atlanta, Keone Kela to Pittsburgh and Joakim Soria to Milwaukee

All six are out of their closer roles and into setup roles with their new teams. Their stats should remain steady except they will be trading their saves for holds.

Francisco Mejia to Padres

Mejia is a top-10 prospect and is the real deal. He’s an excellent contact hitter, developing power and will be an impact player. The San Diego Padres did very well here and have their catcher of the future for a couple of relievers that wouldn’t help a losing team win.

Mike Moustakas to Brewers

This was looking like a very solid move as the Milwaukee Brewers were adding a power bat to their lineup, but the move displaced Travis Shaw off of 3B to 2B, adding to his position flexibility. But then the Brewers made another deal…

Jonathan Schoop to Brewers

If Schoop plays his usual 2B, then a big logjam has blocked the Milwaukee River since the outfield and 1B are stacked up already. But Schoop could play shortstop, which is an offensive upgrade for the Brewers. I’m a big fan of Luis Ortiz, who was the most intriguing player going to Baltimore in the deal.

Chris Archer to Pirates

Archer is in desperate need of new scenery. I think a better team will inspire him to find his true self. The Pittsburgh Pirates had to send Austin Meadows to Tampa in the deal. The Pirates didn’t have room in their outfield for Meadows right now, but he will be a real asset for the Rays over time. A fair deal for both teams that should lead to an acceleration in production for both big names in the deal.

Wilson Ramos to Phillies

Ramos was having a good season for the Rays. Philadelphia couldn’t get consistency from their catchers so they had to spend on a backstop that will hopefully help them win a division crown. Ramos might see a slight uptick in RBI, but the other stats should remain steady.

Tommy Pham to Rays

I don’t get the Rays motivation here. Pham played well above his abilities in 2017 and this season was saw him come back down to earth. With the trade of Ramos, Archer and several other pitchers, the acquisition of a 30-year old who is not as good as his previous season makes me scratch my head. At any rate, don’t look for Pham to channel his 2017 season ever again.

Ian Kinsler to Red Sox

Kinsler is showing his age. Going to Boston won’t do a lot for his stats, since most of his good stuff is all used up. I would expect him to continue to struggle through this season even in a different uniform on a top team.

Cole Hamels to Cubs

Hamels is always a gamer. He’ll give you his best stuff, even if his best days are behind him… which they are. He’s still serviceable, but not spectacular any longer. He ought to give you slightly better ratios playing in the NL and more wins with a better offense, but this is not vintage Cole Hamels.

Eduardo Escobar to Diamondbacks

Escobar was hitting well for Minnesota Twins and gets the chance to do the same in Arizona because Jake Lamb couldn’t. I think the humidor will have minimum effects on Escobar’s value. Expect similar or slightly better numbers for Escobar in the desert.

Brian Dozier to Dodgers

Dozier is having a down year by his standards. There is no telling what the Dodgers just bought, but they are hoping to surround him with talent and re-ignite his power output. Dozier will get the bulk of the starts but will likely have to do a time-share.

Kevin Gausman to Braves

Atlanta Braves grabbed a lottery ticket for a handful of prospects. Gausman has great potential and frustratingly inconsistent results to show for his MLB time. He could become a stud or he might end up making fantasy owners continue pulling out their hair.

As I said off the top – that was a very active MLB trade deadline! None of this discussion mentions opportunities created by the trade for the vacancies. I hope to address this in the near future to see who was moved in each trade and see which player benefitted due to the newly created opening.

Fantasy Baseball Buy Sell Advice – Mike Clevinger, Chris Archer

April 16, 2018 By Giles Clasen 2 Comments

Giles returns with some fantasy baseball buy sell advice, mostly on the sell side this week including SP Mike Clevinger of the Indians. Come on Giles, how can you trade that flow?

SP Mike Clevinger, CLE

Mike Clevinger had a bad night Friday against Toronto Blue Jays. He gave up 4 runs in four innings. Well, really, he gave up four runs in the fourth inning. Apart from that one bad inning Clevinger has looked good but not great this season.

Clevinger has a 2.70 ERA through three games, so those bold predictions look like they might be spot on. Unfortunately his underlying numbers are a bit concerning. His WHIP is an elevated 1.38 and his K-rate is down to 20 per cent.

Clevinger isn’t known for pounding the strike zone, so he likely will have an elevated walk rate. Still, opponents contact rate is up from 70 percent last year to 78 percent this year.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
I am still optimistic about Clevinger, but I can’t deny his value may never be higher. If you can get a Top 100 player in return take it and sell.

SP Chris Archer, TB

Chris Archer has never been my favorite pitcher. The greatest value Archer is giving you is his K-rate and his 200 plus innings. That is rare in today’s game. But, 200 innings of an ERA over 4.00 will hurt your team more than it helps. I think Archer’s biggest problem is that he plays for Tampa Bay. His BABIP is .379 and strand rate is just shy of 56 percent, both the worst of his career.

Don’t get me wrong, Archer is hurting himself plenty and doesn’t seem to be able to get left handed batters out any more. His strike out rate is slightly lower than in previous years and his walk rate is slightly higher. Archer’s season, though, looks like it is going to depend on the defense behind him.

Archer is in a difficult position. He won’t have a lot of trade value unless he improves his numbers, but he can’t improve his numbers on a team with a four man rotation and dismal defense.

Fantasy Advice – Hold
I would hold him for now because you won’t get back anywhere closer to what you paid for him, but if a reasonable offer comes in then strongly consider it.

OF Bradley Zimmer, CLE

Bradley Zimmer was a hot choice heading into the season. He was projected as a 15 homer, 30 steal guy. His size and speed were unique in baseball and he has been able to hit to all fields meaning he can be tough to defend. The fact that he was going outside the Top 200 players in drafts meant he was pretty cheap.

Zimmer has never been able to make consistent contact. He does make hard contact 37 percent of the time, so there is hope his home run rate may pick up. But he is striking out 38 percent of the time and walking less than 5 percent.

Fantasy Advice – Drop
He doesn’t have the discipline to help your team. Feel free to drop him.

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE

Jose Ramirez was a player I had high hopes for entering the year, but he seems to have sold out to the fly ball revolution. Sure he has three home runs and two steals through 14 games which suggests he is on pace to improve on last years numbers. But his fly ball rate has increased from 39.7 percent last year to 52.2 percent this year.

I believe this is the cause of his low average. Nothing else seems to have changed. His K-rate is down and his walk rate is up, and that usually bodes well for a batter. But fly balls tend to lead to outs rather than hits. Maybe Ramirez normalizes, but I think he has changed his swing in an attempt to hit for more power.

Fantasy Advice – Hold
I would love to say Ramirez is a buy low candidate, but until we see his line drive rate increase and his fly ball rate decrease I don’t want much to do with him.

OF Nick Castellanos, DET

Nick Castellanos has been playing baseball in football weather and that has hurt him early. Most people drafted Castellanos because they thought he was a lock to hit 30 home runs this year. Through the early going he hasn’t hit a single ball out of the park. I think this is easily explained by the weather.

His underlying numbers look great. His walk rate is up slightly and his strike out rate is down. His hard hit rate is up to 53.7 percent and he is hitting to all fields. This has lead to a .302 batting average early in the season.

Everything looks great, except for his home runs. I believe this is simply due to the Detroit Tigers playing in some miserable weather so far. They have 6 postponed games so far and played some that should have been rescheduled.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
The Tigers won’t play a game south of the Mason Dixon Line until they travel to Tampa Bay for a series starting April 30, so hope Spring finally comes to the AL Central. I would buy Castellanos everywhere while his price is a bit depressed because he is eventually going to start hitting home runs that will warm your heart.

Lucky and Unlucky Pitchers Due For A Correction

March 21, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

Luck plays a part in a pitcher’s stat line. Chris identifies pitchers who were extra lucky last season (like Stephen Strasburg) or unlucky (Chris Archer), expecting that luck evens out, and to use to our advantage this year.

The only sure thing about luck is that it will change

Famed playwright and raconteur, Wilson Mizner

That quote sums up what I am aiming to apply to this fantasy baseball analysis. I’m looking for starting pitchers that have been either lucky or unlucky in 2017, and digging deeper to see if I can take advantage in 2018.

There are a lot of metrics I like to look at to get a feeling if a pitcher was lucky or unlucky in the previous season.

Earned Run Average minus Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (ERA-xFIP)
I like to think of xFIP as the pitcher’s “true” ERA, or his ERA based on the things he can control (strikeouts and walks), and removes the things he has little to no control over (defense and BABIP). Subtracting xFIP from the pitcher’s ERA gives us an idea of whether he is lucky or unlucky. If the pitcher’s ERA is higher than xFIP it tells me that the pitcher may be unlucky and is actually pitching better than his ERA indicates. The opposite can be said if his ERA is lower than his xFIP.

Outside of ERA-xFIP, I like to look at batted ball metrics. We know that pitchers do not have complete control over what happens to a baseball once it’s put into play, but they do have some control over the type of batted ball they allow (ground ball, line drive or fly ball).

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
A pitcher with a high BABIP is seeing more balls fall in for hits thus raising his ERA and WHIP. Things should even out over the course of the season and lower his ERA and WHIP.

Left On Base Percentage (LOB%)
A LOB% lower than 72.1% indicates that he is allowing more runners to score than the league average thus increasing his ERA. Like BABIP, this should even out over the course of the season and lower his ERA.

Ground Ball Percentage (GB%)
Ground balls are the best for a pitcher. That is because they tend to go for hits more often than fly balls (although they don’t result in extra base hits as often). But the higher a pitcher’s ground ball rate, the easier it is for their defense to turn those ground balls into outs. I like to compare the pitcher’s GB% rate to the league average and his career average to get any idea if luck played a role.

Home Run to Flyball Rate (HR/FB)
Pitchers generally do not have control over their HR/FB from year to year. The ballpark that a pitcher pitches in can have an effect on their HR/FB rate. A high HR/FB indicates that the pitcher is serving up more home runs than normal and thus their ERA is probably high. Over the course of the season their HR/FB should lower towards the league average and lower their ERA.

Here are the MLB totals for these metrics over the last three seasons, plus the 10-year average. These results are from starting pitchers only, no relievers.

Metric	2015	2016	2017	2008-2017
ERA-xFIP	0.10	0.10	0.08	0.09
BABIP	0.297	0.298	0.299	0.296
LOB%	72.3%	72.2%	72.1%	71.8%
GB%	45.2%	44.3%	44.0%	44.3%
HR/FB	11.6%	13.3%	14.2%	11.2%
Innings	28,223.1	27,412.2	26,787.1	28,352.1

Here are a few things that interest me from this data:

Total innings pitched by starters is going down each season.
All of these metrics are pretty consistent over the past three seasons, except HR/FB which appears to be steadily climbing.

For this exercise I went to FanGraphs and exported 2017 stats for starting pitchers only (134 pitchers). I then simply determined if each pitcher was lucky/normal/unlucky for each metric. To determine lucky vs. unlucky I came up with these guidelines. Anything in-between was considered “normal”.

Metric	Lucky	Unlucky
ERA-xFIP	< -0.5	> 0.5
BABIP	< .289	> .309
LOB%	> 73.1%	< 71.1%
GB%	> 45.0%	< 43.0%
HR/FB	< 12.2%	> 16.2%

For the players identified below, sabermetric stats are from FanGraphs.com, 2018 projections are from Steamer, and ADP is from FantasyPros on March 7, 2018.

LUCK COULD TURN AROUND

Lance McCullers Jr., HOU
ADP SP #33, Overall #119

Season	GS	IP	W	L	K	ERA	WHIP	5X5
2017	22	118.2	7	4	132	4.25	1.30	$1
2018 (Projected)	24	137.0	10	7	145	3.61	1.28	$12

Season	Innings	ERA	WHIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2015	125.2	3.22	1.19	-0.28	.288	75.0%	46.5%	9.3%
2016	81.0	3.22	1.54	0.16	.383	81.4%	57.3%	11.9%
2017	118.2	4.25	1.30	1.08	.330	67.6%	61.3%	12.7%

In 2017, McCullers was one of nine pitchers that had his xFIP a whole run lower than his ERA. Combine that with his high BABIP and low LOB%, and you could say that McCullers was quite unlucky in 2017.

Why should you think he can bounce back in 2018? Well, he’s always been a groundball pitcher with a career 54.5% GB% (league average is 44.3%) and a 2.21 GB/FB (league average is 1.26). When he does let a ball get hit in the air it tends to stay in the park with a career HR/FB of 10.8% (league average is 13.0%). Those facts combined with the thought that his luck should turn indicates that he is someone you should not shy away from during your draft.

Chris Archer, TB
ADP SP #16, Overall #55

Season	GS	IP	W	L	K	ERA	WHIP	5X5
2017	34	201.0	10	12	249	4.07	1.26	$9
2018 (Projected)	32	196.0	12	11	222	3.49	1.17	$26

Season	Innings	ERA	WHIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2015	212.0	3.23	1.14	0.22	.295	73.1%	46.1%	10.4%
2016	201.1	4.02	1.24	0.61	.296	72.5%	47.8%	16.2%
2017	201.0	4.07	1.26	0.72	.325	71.3%	42.0%	14.1%

In 2017, Archer brought you a lot of K’s and D’oh!’s as he struggled through an up and down season. A high BABIP (27th highest out of the 134 pitchers in this study) is the metric that sticks out the most. But, if you look at the others they are all leaning towards “unlucky.”

Why should you think he can bounce back in 2018? Well, his xFIP in the first half of 2017 was 3.42 with an ERA of 3.95, while in the second half his ERA was higher at 4.27 but his xFIP was lower at 3.23, with the telling stat being HR/FB. In the second half his HR/FB was 18.0% compared to 10.4% in the first half. Prior to 2016 his HR/FB ratio was consistently below 11.7% even in the minors. My gut tells me that Archer just took a little longer to “right the ship” in 2017 but eventually got there in the second half. I’m expecting his 2018 numbers to end up more like his 2015 numbers.

BUYER BEWARE

Gio Gonzalez, WAS
ADP SP #38, Overall #140

Season	GS	IP	W	L	K	ERA	WHIP	5X5
2017	32	201.0	15	9	188	2.96	1.18	$20
2018 (Projected)	32	190.0	12	10	170	4.17	1.37	$4

Season	Innings	ERA	WHIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2015	175.2	3.79	1.42	0.2	.341	72.1%	53.8%	5.9%
2016	177.1	4.57	1.34	0.77	.316	67.6%	47.6%	12.5%
2017	201.0	2.96	1.18	-1.28	.258	81.6%	45.8%	11.1%

In 2017, Gio had the 7th lowest* ERA-xFIP of the 134 starting pitchers in this analysis. I’m pretty sure that you don’t need to be a card carrying member of SABR to see that Gio was very lucky last season. Along with his ERA-xFIP he had the 12th lowest BABIP and the 6th highest LOB%.

Why should you avoid drafting him at his current ADP in 2018? While enjoying metrics on the very lucky spectrum his 45.8% GB% was not far from his 47.5% career GB% and his 11.1% HR/FB was higher than his 9.3% career HR/FB. This all adds up to a big red flag telling me to avoid drafting him this year.

* The other six are, in order of lowest ERA-xFIP, Andrew Cashner, Chase Anderson, Ervin Santana, Jose Urena, Parker Bridwell and Lance Lynn. I selected Gonzalez because he has the highest ADP of the seven. Safe to say you should avoid these other six just the same. As I was putting this article together I nearly went entirely in the Buyer Beware direction.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS
ADP SP #6, Overall #27

Season	GS	IP	W	L	K	ERA	WHIP	5X5
2017	28	175.1	15	4	204	2.52	1.02	$29
2018 (Projected)	31	188.0	14	9	216	3.45	1.15	$28

Season	Innings	ERA	WHIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2015	127.1	3.46	1.11	0.77	.311	70.7%	42.2%	12.4%
2016	147.2	3.60	1.10	0.4	.294	73.6%	39.5%	10.6%
2017	175.1	2.52	1.02	-0.75	.274	77.9%	46.8%	8.7%

In 2017, Strasburg turned in arguably his best season with career lows in ERA and WHIP in 28 starts (most since 2014). Anytime someone has a “career year” you should take pause and evaluate whether or not luck played a role.

Why should you not immediately pencil him in as the #5 SP on the board? Although, Strasburg had a career best ERA (2.52) he had his career worst xFIP (3.27). Think about that for a second. His 2017 .274 BABIP was a good bit lower than his career .295 BABIP. His 8.7% HR/FB in 2017 was the 6th lowest of the 134 starting pitchers and also below his 10.9% career HR/FB.

Put it all together and you see why I’m asking you to temper your expectations for him in 2018. He’s going to be one of the better starters in any format but I’m comfortable passing on him at the top of the 3rd round and selecting someone like Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom or Luis Severino later in 3rd or even taking Archer in 4th.