Roll The Dice on These Unlucky Pitchers

February 20, 2019 By kopasetic Leave a Comment

Philadelphia Phillies Nick Pivetta was one of the unluckiest starting pitchers in 2018. Thanks to that, coupled with a decent K/9 and low ADP, Pivetta is a good bet as a 2019 fantasy baseball undervalued pitcher.

Last week I discussed starting pitchers that I thought were too lucky last season. They could be considered 2019 fantasy baseball overvalued pitchers, given their luck last season made them look better than they really are. We can’t expect that luck to continue this season.

Using the same process, here I highlight starting pitchers that were too unlucky last season. This helps us identify some starters later in your draft that could be in line for a better year, or 2019 fantasy baseball undervalued pitchers.

Using the same metrics in my analysis – ERA-xFIP, BABIP, LOB%, GB%, HR/FB (check the previous article for details) – I tabulated if each of 128 qualifying starting pitchers were unlucky in 2018. To determine what unlucky looks like, I came up with these guidelines based on a weighted average over the last 5 years:

ERA-xFIP higher than +0.5
BABIP higher than 0.305
LOB% lower than 71.4%
GB% lower than 42.8%
HR/FB higher than 14.1%

LUCK COULD TURN AROUND

This analysis resulted in the following potentially undervalued starting pitchers for the 2019 fantasy baseball season, given their high un-luck score and ADP. Stats are from FanGraphs. ADP info is from FantasyPros as of February 18, 2019.

Chris Archer ADP SP #34 · Overall #132

Season	Innings	ERA	xFIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2016	201.1	4.02	3.41	0.61	.296	72.5%	47.8%	16.2%
2017	201.0	4.07	3.35	0.72	.325	71.3%	42.0%	14.1%
2018	148.1	4.31	3.59	0.72	.338	72.5%	44.6%	14.1%

Archer came in as the 14^th unluckiest pitcher in this analysis. He has the 2^nd highest BABIP and 21^st highest ERA-xFIP. Although his 2018 GB% was higher than the league average 43.0%, his career GB% is 45.6%. This tells me that he gets batters to hit grounders more than usual.

You can make the argument that he has been unlucky for the past three seasons, not just 2018. One of these years he’s going to flip the script and give us the season we’ve all been waiting for. Could it be 2019? With a career 9.73 K/9 he will always be drafted. This might be the lowest price you’ll ever have to pay for him. As your 3^rd starter in a 12-team league or 4^th in a 10-team league. Why not take a chance on him?

Nick Pivetta ADP SP #45 · Overall #171

Season	Innings	ERA	xFIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2017	133.0	6.02	4.26	1.76	.332	67.1%	43.8%	18.2%
2018	164.0	4.77	3.42	1.35	.326	69.0%	46.7%	15.8%

Pivetta came in as the 6^th unluckiest pitcher. He had the 4^th highest ERA-xFIP, the 6^th highest BABIP, the 20^th highest HR/FB rate and the 24^th lowest LOB%. The only “luck” he had going for him was his unusually high GB%.

True, we have a small sample size on Pivetta and the numbers are “unlucky” across the board (again, with the exception of GB%). He’s being drafted as a #4 starter in 12-team leagues (#5 in 10-team leagues). Why not roll the dice on him and his career 9.94 K/9?

Jon Gray ADP SP #53 · Overall #188

Season	Innings	ERA	xFIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2016	168.0	4.61	3.61	1.00	.308	66.4%	43.5%	12.8%
2017	110.1	3.67	3.45	0.22	.336	74.8%	48.9%	11.1%
2018	172.1	5.12	3.47	1.65	.322	67.9%	47.5%	18.1%

Gray checks in as the 3^rd unluckiest pitcher last season. He had the 2^nd highest ERA-xFIP, 6^th highest HR/FB rate, 14^th highest BABIP and 15^th lowest LOB%. Like Pivetta, his GB% was very high last season.

He’s being drafted about a round later than Pivetta as a #5 starter in 12-team leagues (#6 in 10-team leagues). And like, Pivetta he has a desirable 9.53 K/9. Now, I’m not advising you draft both him and Pivetta… but, Gray could serve you well as a late round gamble. Gray has even admitted that he wasn’t healthy last season as is looking to rebound.

Dylan Bundy ADP SP #79 · Overall #290

Season	Innings	ERA	xFIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2016	109.2	4.02	4.61	-0.59	.299	79.7%	35.9%	13.3%
2017	169.2	4.24	4.77	-0.53	.273	73.7%	32.8%	11.5%
2018	171.2	5.45	4.28	1.17	.316	69.3%	34.0%	17.8%

Ah, we’ve come to our unluckiest pitcher in the 2018 season. Bundy struggled his way to be Top 27 unluckiest in all five metrics, and Top 8 in three (ERA-xFIP, GB% and HR/FB rate). While 2018 is arguably his worst year yet, he did post a career high 9.65 K/9. So there is that.

Bundy is not going to be a difference maker in 2019 but he’s a guy to take a late round flier in deeper leagues (15-teams or more) or keep your eyes on him early in the season. If it looks like he’s righting the ship, stream him occasionally.

* Additionally, the #2 & #4 unluckiest pitchers were Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani, respectively. Bailey recently signed a minor league deal with the Kansas City Royals and is currently being drafted as SP #223. Safe to ignore him in any draft. DeSclafani is being drafted as SP #125 and therefore mostly irrelevant except in deep, deep leagues.

Fantasy Impact from MLB Trade Deadline Deals – Machado, Osuna, Archer

August 3, 2018 By Rick Leave a Comment

A familiar face – 3B Manny Machado – in his new uni for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Many players traded places leading up to the MLB Trade Deadline. Rick gives us the fantasy impact of the key deals.

Holy that was a busy MLB trade deadline!

There were too many names traded to even try to cover them all. With every player going to a contender, a vacancy is created for a new player on a non-contending team and sometimes a player is blocked on the contending team with their new addition.

I do not intend to bother with trades like Zach Duke for Chase De Jong and Ryan Costello because the deal is too insignificant compared to the many bigger deals that went down. As the dust is settling, let’s see how the fantasy baseball landscape has changed as a result of the MLB trade deadline.

MLB Trade Deadline Deals

Manny Machado to the Dodgers

The biggest trade of all went down two weeks ago when Los Angeles Dodgers traded for Manny Machado. This guy will help any team’s offense, but his overall production could take a little bit of a dip going from the Baltimore Orioles bandbox to the pitcher’s haven at Chavez Ravine. But this guy is a stud and he will still put up good numbers anywhere.

Roberto Osuna to the Astros

Houston and Toronto traded closers with a bit of a tarnish. Houston grabbed Roberto Osuna right before he comes off suspension. The Astros are taking a bit of a public relations hit by adding a guy who was suspended for domestic abuse, but that won’t have any effect on your fantasy team. He is a relief ace and well worth adding if you can get him.

In return, Toronto acquired Ken Giles who was a darling closer before a mental meltdown lead him to a demotion to triple-A. The Blue Jays say he is going to be their closer as soon as he is promoted but unless your fantasy league collects points from minor league players, you are left to wait until Giles is promoted to Toronto to capitalize on that promise.

Asdrubal Cabrera to Phillies

In moving to Philadelphia, Asdrubal Cabrera’s value will remain stable, with maybe a few more runs scored. The most important value for Cabrera is that he is likely to pick up shortstop eligibility with the Phillies.

J.A. Happ and Lance Lynn to the Yankees

The Yanks added two starters to their starting rotation in different deals. Pitchers either thrive or wither when they end up in New York and I would bet on Happ to thrive. Count on wins and K’s as this veteran has pitched in the Big Apple many times as a visitor and should fit in quite nicely.

As for Lynn, there is no telling how he will do. He has had an off year and the unforgiving Bleacher Creatures might not take too well to him if he struggles out of the gate.

Zach Britton to New York Yankees, Jeurys Familia to Oakland, Brad Hand to Cleveland, Brad Brach to Atlanta, Keone Kela to Pittsburgh and Joakim Soria to Milwaukee

All six are out of their closer roles and into setup roles with their new teams. Their stats should remain steady except they will be trading their saves for holds.

Francisco Mejia to Padres

Mejia is a top-10 prospect and is the real deal. He’s an excellent contact hitter, developing power and will be an impact player. The San Diego Padres did very well here and have their catcher of the future for a couple of relievers that wouldn’t help a losing team win.

Mike Moustakas to Brewers

This was looking like a very solid move as the Milwaukee Brewers were adding a power bat to their lineup, but the move displaced Travis Shaw off of 3B to 2B, adding to his position flexibility. But then the Brewers made another deal…

Jonathan Schoop to Brewers

If Schoop plays his usual 2B, then a big logjam has blocked the Milwaukee River since the outfield and 1B are stacked up already. But Schoop could play shortstop, which is an offensive upgrade for the Brewers. I’m a big fan of Luis Ortiz, who was the most intriguing player going to Baltimore in the deal.

Chris Archer to Pirates

Archer is in desperate need of new scenery. I think a better team will inspire him to find his true self. The Pittsburgh Pirates had to send Austin Meadows to Tampa in the deal. The Pirates didn’t have room in their outfield for Meadows right now, but he will be a real asset for the Rays over time. A fair deal for both teams that should lead to an acceleration in production for both big names in the deal.

Wilson Ramos to Phillies

Ramos was having a good season for the Rays. Philadelphia couldn’t get consistency from their catchers so they had to spend on a backstop that will hopefully help them win a division crown. Ramos might see a slight uptick in RBI, but the other stats should remain steady.

Tommy Pham to Rays

I don’t get the Rays motivation here. Pham played well above his abilities in 2017 and this season was saw him come back down to earth. With the trade of Ramos, Archer and several other pitchers, the acquisition of a 30-year old who is not as good as his previous season makes me scratch my head. At any rate, don’t look for Pham to channel his 2017 season ever again.

Ian Kinsler to Red Sox

Kinsler is showing his age. Going to Boston won’t do a lot for his stats, since most of his good stuff is all used up. I would expect him to continue to struggle through this season even in a different uniform on a top team.

Cole Hamels to Cubs

Hamels is always a gamer. He’ll give you his best stuff, even if his best days are behind him… which they are. He’s still serviceable, but not spectacular any longer. He ought to give you slightly better ratios playing in the NL and more wins with a better offense, but this is not vintage Cole Hamels.

Eduardo Escobar to Diamondbacks

Escobar was hitting well for Minnesota Twins and gets the chance to do the same in Arizona because Jake Lamb couldn’t. I think the humidor will have minimum effects on Escobar’s value. Expect similar or slightly better numbers for Escobar in the desert.

Brian Dozier to Dodgers

Dozier is having a down year by his standards. There is no telling what the Dodgers just bought, but they are hoping to surround him with talent and re-ignite his power output. Dozier will get the bulk of the starts but will likely have to do a time-share.

Kevin Gausman to Braves

Atlanta Braves grabbed a lottery ticket for a handful of prospects. Gausman has great potential and frustratingly inconsistent results to show for his MLB time. He could become a stud or he might end up making fantasy owners continue pulling out their hair.

As I said off the top – that was a very active MLB trade deadline! None of this discussion mentions opportunities created by the trade for the vacancies. I hope to address this in the near future to see who was moved in each trade and see which player benefitted due to the newly created opening.

Fantasy Baseball Buy Sell Advice – Mike Clevinger, Chris Archer

April 16, 2018 By Giles Clasen 2 Comments

Giles returns with some fantasy baseball buy sell advice, mostly on the sell side this week including SP Mike Clevinger of the Indians. Come on Giles, how can you trade that flow?

SP Mike Clevinger, CLE

Mike Clevinger had a bad night Friday against Toronto Blue Jays. He gave up 4 runs in four innings. Well, really, he gave up four runs in the fourth inning. Apart from that one bad inning Clevinger has looked good but not great this season.

Clevinger has a 2.70 ERA through three games, so those bold predictions look like they might be spot on. Unfortunately his underlying numbers are a bit concerning. His WHIP is an elevated 1.38 and his K-rate is down to 20 per cent.

Clevinger isn’t known for pounding the strike zone, so he likely will have an elevated walk rate. Still, opponents contact rate is up from 70 percent last year to 78 percent this year.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
I am still optimistic about Clevinger, but I can’t deny his value may never be higher. If you can get a Top 100 player in return take it and sell.

SP Chris Archer, TB

Chris Archer has never been my favorite pitcher. The greatest value Archer is giving you is his K-rate and his 200 plus innings. That is rare in today’s game. But, 200 innings of an ERA over 4.00 will hurt your team more than it helps. I think Archer’s biggest problem is that he plays for Tampa Bay. His BABIP is .379 and strand rate is just shy of 56 percent, both the worst of his career.

Don’t get me wrong, Archer is hurting himself plenty and doesn’t seem to be able to get left handed batters out any more. His strike out rate is slightly lower than in previous years and his walk rate is slightly higher. Archer’s season, though, looks like it is going to depend on the defense behind him.

Archer is in a difficult position. He won’t have a lot of trade value unless he improves his numbers, but he can’t improve his numbers on a team with a four man rotation and dismal defense.

Fantasy Advice – Hold
I would hold him for now because you won’t get back anywhere closer to what you paid for him, but if a reasonable offer comes in then strongly consider it.

OF Bradley Zimmer, CLE

Bradley Zimmer was a hot choice heading into the season. He was projected as a 15 homer, 30 steal guy. His size and speed were unique in baseball and he has been able to hit to all fields meaning he can be tough to defend. The fact that he was going outside the Top 200 players in drafts meant he was pretty cheap.

Zimmer has never been able to make consistent contact. He does make hard contact 37 percent of the time, so there is hope his home run rate may pick up. But he is striking out 38 percent of the time and walking less than 5 percent.

Fantasy Advice – Drop
He doesn’t have the discipline to help your team. Feel free to drop him.

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE

Jose Ramirez was a player I had high hopes for entering the year, but he seems to have sold out to the fly ball revolution. Sure he has three home runs and two steals through 14 games which suggests he is on pace to improve on last years numbers. But his fly ball rate has increased from 39.7 percent last year to 52.2 percent this year.

I believe this is the cause of his low average. Nothing else seems to have changed. His K-rate is down and his walk rate is up, and that usually bodes well for a batter. But fly balls tend to lead to outs rather than hits. Maybe Ramirez normalizes, but I think he has changed his swing in an attempt to hit for more power.

Fantasy Advice – Hold
I would love to say Ramirez is a buy low candidate, but until we see his line drive rate increase and his fly ball rate decrease I don’t want much to do with him.

OF Nick Castellanos, DET

Nick Castellanos has been playing baseball in football weather and that has hurt him early. Most people drafted Castellanos because they thought he was a lock to hit 30 home runs this year. Through the early going he hasn’t hit a single ball out of the park. I think this is easily explained by the weather.

His underlying numbers look great. His walk rate is up slightly and his strike out rate is down. His hard hit rate is up to 53.7 percent and he is hitting to all fields. This has lead to a .302 batting average early in the season.

Everything looks great, except for his home runs. I believe this is simply due to the Detroit Tigers playing in some miserable weather so far. They have 6 postponed games so far and played some that should have been rescheduled.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
The Tigers won’t play a game south of the Mason Dixon Line until they travel to Tampa Bay for a series starting April 30, so hope Spring finally comes to the AL Central. I would buy Castellanos everywhere while his price is a bit depressed because he is eventually going to start hitting home runs that will warm your heart.