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2011 Fantasy Baseball All Bust Team – Morneau, Beltre, Cahill

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Some baseball players get far more credit than they deserve by the fantasy community. Like Britney Spears, they are seen as having a lot more talent and potential than they really have and that reputation drives their value up, far higher than they are worth.

People drafting at Mock Draft Central (MDC) are using that website for a variety of purposes, including trying out new draft strategies, so the results certainly aren’t something to take to the bank. However, Average Draft Position of each player does give a fairly accurate view of where players will be drafted in similar leagues.

I project the following players will perform a lot worse than is currently being forecast by the users at MDC. Following up my All Sleeper Team, here is my 2011 All Bust Team:

Jorge Posada, C, NYY – Posada will not get a lot of at-bats this season. As he ages, his knees cannot handle the beating behind the plate any longer and he will be lucky to get a game a week behind home. With Mark Teixeira manning first base, there is little chance of regular duty there. That leaves DH as the perfect fit for Posada’s defensive prowess, old or young, healthy or not. Those knees are likely to be a problem most of the season, and the up and coming designated hitter Jesus Montero is ready to take his job in the heart of the Yankees lineup. Posada’s diminishing skills (both his AVG and OPS were more than 25 points below his career average last season) and creaky knees will provide the New York Yankees reason to find younger and better players like Montero to take away Posada’s opportunities.

Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN – This has more to do with the concussions and the toll they have taken on Morneau. The one sustained last July was his second and he has been told by team doctors that a third will end his career. The side effects of the concussion come and go and some days are better than others for Morneau. If he can shake the cobwebs, he will be good to go, but the team hasn’t cleared him completely yet and he could play tentatively knowing the end might be near.

Chone Figgins, 2B, SEA – Figgins looks to be aging quickly. He has always been a speed guy, but the average is taking a plunge into dangerous territory. Though he will gain 3B eligibility with his move back to the hot corner, his value is still questionable. He’s a notoriously slow starter, so he’s unlikely to do a great deal before Memorial Day anyway. If you really want Figgins, it might be wiser to let someone else draft him and then trade for him in early May as you point out to the other owner that he could do better with a younger player.

Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX – If you’ve spent any time at all reading my articles in the last month, then you are familiar with my great dislike for Beltre in a non-contract season. He has averaged .310/28HR/89RBI in his three contract seasons, compared to his non-contract season average of .264/18/67. He’s not worth the investment that it will take to land him on draft day, so let someone else go through the pain that Beltre inflicts on anyone who pays too much for his services.

Alexei Ramirez, SS, CWS – This spot is occupied by Ramirez for one reason, and that is because he is worthless before May Day. In his three MLB seasons, Ramirez has never posted a batting average higher than .231 or OPS over .558 in the month of April. Compare that to his career batting average of .283 and career OPS of .751. Like Figgins, let someone else draft him and then trade for him before he heats up in May.

Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, OF, TEX and Andre Ethier, OF, LAD – The Texas outfielders are both big time performers when healthy, but neither can stay on the field for a full season. Since they will both cost you a first or second round pick and there is little room for failure with picks that high, it is better to go with a player that is more of a sure thing. Ethier is probably not as good as his 2009 season, which many fantasy owners are looking for. Considered a disappointment from the perspective of a 27-year old building off a breakthrough season, Ethier’s 2010 will eventually be looked at as a career norm with 2009 the outlier. A projected .287/27/94 season is pretty good, but not where it needs to be to justify his current draft position.

Jason Kubel, DH, MIN – Being on the wrong side of a platoon is never a good place to be. Of course, Kubel will get the at-bats when the Minnesota Twins’ regular outfielders are resting or injured, but he might have a hard time finding 500 at-bats this season.

Trevor Cahill, RHP, OAK – How can you not love a guy who posts an 18-win season with a sub-3.00 ERA? When you consider that the previous season he had a losing record and a 4.63 ERA, you have to wonder where all the good fortune came from. His BABIP was .236, his FIP was 4.19, and his xFIP was 4.11, it is easy to see that he was more lucky than good last year and Cahill benefitted greatly as a result. Since luck averages out over time, the odds against him posting numbers that good again are pretty high. Let someone else deal with that disappointment.

Francisco Liriano, LHP, MIN – Who is Francisco Liriano? Is he the guy who went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA in 2006? Or was he the guy who posted a combined 11-17 with a 5.12 ERA in 2008-09? Or maybe he was the guy who went 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA last season. He seems to not have a significant enough track record to know what he can or will do to invest a high draft pick on him. There are plenty of safer starting pitcher options around where Liriano is getting drafted on average.

Joakim Soria, RP, KC – Soria’s only crime is that he plays for a crummy team. The Royals have a ton of young talent coming up through the minor league system, but they will not show up this year. Soria will post outstanding ratios as usual, but don’t expect a lot of save chances for a team that won’t win many games.

Most of these players have earned their reputations with quality play over the years. If they slip in your draft, they will probably reward you with a nice value, but they are going way too high in mock drafts and you should not take them as early as the lemmings at MDC.

Fantasy Baseball Prospect Watch: Seattle Mariners Dustin Ackley

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As we anxiously await the beginning of the Winter Meeting and the possibility of our favorite Major League Baseball teams adding that one significant piece to take them to the next level, let’s stoke the fantasy hot stove with some prospect talk. This series on prospects will cover a wide range of players as well as positions. We’ll cover sleepers as well as some of the more obvious stars of the future.

The first prospect in the series is not much of a sleeper. Dustin Ackley was taken second in the 2009 MLB Draft, right after the much ballyhooed Stephen Strasburg. Seattle drafted the University of North Carolina outfielder/first baseman with the intention of moving him to second base. The transition seems to be going well, with health being the only real concern for Ackley.

Ackley was moved from outfield to first base at UNC because of an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery in the summer before his junior year of college. Since Ackley is so athletic, the transition to second base hasn’t seemed to be a problem and the throw won’t put a lot of strain on the surgically repaired elbow. As a former centerfielder, Ackley seems to have the range and quickness needed to handle the defensive side of the job.

For position players, the most important tool is the bat and there are no questions that Ackley can hit. When drafted, then Seattle manager Don Wakamatsu referred to Ackley by saying, “his bat is special”. Ackley batted over .400 in each of his three college seasons, being named All-America in each season. He began his professional career by playing 20 games in the 2009 Arizona Fall League and batting .315. In 2010, he posted a .267/7HR/51RBi/10SB line in 134 games in Double and Triple-A.

Ackley scorched the Arizona Fall League, posting a .424/4HR/19RBi/5SB/28R line for the season. He lead the AFL in AVG, OBP (.581), SLG (.758), OPS (1.338), and runs scored, while finishing one behind the league leader in doubles and homers, despite missing a week with a sprained finger. There is little left to prove for Ackley and a position in Seattle’s starting lineup seems inevitable.

Ackley looks like a high batting average, high on base percentage type of player. He has a little pop in his bat, but the deep power alleys at Safeco Field seem a good fit for his doubles power. He also has decent wheels, so look for stolen bases as well. He looks to be a Dustin Pedroia-type player with a few more doubles and a few less homers.

As it stands right now, the Seattle Mariners appear to be opening up third base without the intention of filling the position externally. That leaves us to assume that Chone Figgins will be moved back to third base (he wasn’t a good fit at second base with a -12.3 UZR in 2010) and open up the keystone for Ackley.

The only questions left to answer are up to the big league club. Will they trade away Jose Lopez and move Figgins to third base? Will they allow Ackley to start the season with Seattle and start his Major League service time now or wait until June and hope to get an extra year out of him?

With a fairly weak crop of second basemen across the Majors, it seems like Ackley will be an above average or better fantasy player. He will produce in all fantasy areas and be an asset to your club. Don’t expect a huge season in 2011, but a .300/6HR/70RBi/15SB/80R line seems very realistic. In a few years, you can expect to see him putting up .325/15/90/20/100 seasons with regular occurrence.

First Quarter Review Of Your Fantasy Baseball Team—How you doin’?

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How you doin’?

The only way we can say this is with Friends Joey Tribbiani’s voice when he’s trying to pick up a girl. And though Joey makes me laugh when he uses his line, it is a very valid question for each fantasy baseball owner to ask themselves at this time of the season.

We are now at the quarter-way mark of the season and it is time to look back and see what has happened and what we can expect.

If you are in a fantasy points league, you really don’t care where your points are coming from, just as long as you are scoring a lot. You need to evaluate your team and see who is underperforming and if there is a better player out there on the waiver wire or by means of a trade. Cut off the dead wood so the tree can flourish.

If you are playing in a rotisserie league, the balance is a little tougher. Finding a guy who can help with more categories than he hurts is often rather difficult. Usually the waiver wire is picked clean and you are forced to make trades that open up other holes on your team. But doing a two-for-one deal is always the way to go as you usually get the better player in the deal and open up a roster spot for a decent player sitting on the waiver wire.

There are a number of surprising players available. Every season a few players step up and produce ahead of where they were expected to. Mike Aviles, Brennan Boesch, and Colby Lewis are all likely available, but might be snapped up quickly if you don’t move soon.

Look for the underperforming players who are likely to turn it around. These guys are not living up to their potential and are likely to get it going in the right direction. Victor Martinez, Chone Figgins, and Aramis Ramirez are all likely to find their true north soon and produce at the high level you’d expect from them.

Injured players are also a nice source of cheap stats. Grady Sizemore, Ian Kinsler and Jacoby Ellsbury might be available for a reasonable price and can really give your fantasy squad a boost. Owners aren’t likely to give you a discount on this type of player, but might be willing to trade them away when they otherwise wouldn’t part with their stars.

Keep a watchful eye on the waiver wire just in case someone does something foolish like throwing Ryan Theriot away just because he’s no longer playing shortstop for the Cubs. One person did this in one of my leagues and I am the beneficiary of the fact that Theriot will add second base to his position eligibility and continue starting every day for the Cubbies.

This is the time of the season when you have to evaluate and make the appropriate moves. If you are a spectator at this point in the season, then you have already given up and are likely looking forward to your fantasy football draft.

So, how you doin’?