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Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy v.2.0 and Steamer Playing Time Adjustments

January 30, 2019 By Draft Buddy 6 Comments

Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs

How many projected plate appearances for Chicago Cubs SS Javier Baez in 2019? Steamer had 602, giving us a $20 player, but adjusting to 675 pushes Baez to $25, more in line with his late-1st round pick ADP.

In case you missed the note on Facebook and Twitter earlier this week, we have a version 2.0 of fantasy baseball Draft Buddy ready to download.

New version of #fantasybaseball Draft Buddy now available. If you already have 1.0, then go download 2.0 https://t.co/WFcPBsW7DI

— DraftBuddy.com (@DraftBuddy) January 28, 2019

The reason for the changes include some minor fixes:

  • drafting players with multiple positions listed on ADP tab did not copy to draft report tab properly
  • team target percentage totals were not flowing correctly from roto tab to hitters-tp and pitchers-tp tabs
  • formula fixes on roto tabs that impacted large leagues
  • a handful of pitchers were on the hitters data tab instead of the pitchers data tab

That was it, not too much, but the last one, a significant enough change in our Draft Buddy player pool for either the hitters or pitchers means it is better to roll out a brand new version to help future projection updates. So, if you already have version 1.0, then please download and replace it with version 2.0.

Oh, and I updated the download page for 2019 to include a tentative projections update schedule. Next update is Thursday this week, and every two weeks through February and every week after that. Plus unscheduled updates as necessary for major news. In case you haven’t heard, there are a couple of key free agents still unsigned.

Copying Data From Version 1.0 to 2.0

Here is a tip if you are mid-draft and want to update versions. Download and set up version 2.0 for your league the same as you currently have for 1.0 so the draft report tabs are identical rounds and picks in each. Then with both files open in Excel, copy just the yellow highlighted cells in your 1.0 and paste them (usually best to paste special > as values) into the same spot on the draft or auction report tab in 2.0.

If that fails – like, you are sure you are hitting Copy (CTRL-C) but the Paste (CTRL-V) just won’t register on the 2.0 side, then close both files, open them again but disable macros. Now the copy should work. Save, close both, re-open 2.0 and enable macros, as you normally would. I have some programming that triggers when to calculate and when to not calculate, to speed up Draft Buddy. This can impact copy-paste from tab to tab, or file to file.

Now lets talk about a bigger change…

Steamer Playing Time Adjustments

We’ve used Steamer projections for a number of years in Draft Buddy and over this time they’ve grown in reputation as a top resource of projected player stats. They are a great start from which to help calculate our fantasy baseball player values.

Steamer uses an algorithm based on prior performance metrics to assess the projected output for all players. However, many players with known – or anticipated – differences in their projected playing time may have projections that are inconsistent with their likely (within a range) innings pitched or plate appearances.

In the past, we relied on Fangraphs for playing time adjustments, the playing time submitted by their large audience of users. As I’ve taken a harder look at the numbers this year, these may not be the best option for us. I noticed a number of outliers in the rankings created by Draft Buddy or Last Player Picked, based on the Steamer projections, and I believe it is a result of the projected playing time.

Javier Baez

$ PA R HR RBI SB AVG
20 602 76 28 88 17 .269
$ PA R HR RBI SB AVG
25 675 85 31 99 19 .269

The top table is Javier Baez dollar value from Last Player Picked using Steamer projections straight from Fangraphs, the last time I pulled those on January 17. A $20 player is a top 30-35 hitter, but not top 15 where he is currently being drafted in the NFBC.

The problem? His plate appearances are only 602. A check of a couple sources project Baez for 675 PA at Roster Resource and 667 PA at Razzball. When I adjust the PA to 675, now he is a $25 player, a value more in line with his ADP.

Brandon Morrow

$ IP W SV K ERA WHIP
8 65 4 36 69 3.46 1.21
$ IP W SV K ERA WHIP
1 36 2 20 38 3.50 1.22

Former Blue Jay Brandon Morrow really stuck out for me because of name recognition, in part, but mostly because at $8 based on the initial Steamer projections he ranked in the top 10 relievers in Draft Buddy. Those projections are with 65 innings of work.

Problem? Morrow hasn’t pitched 65 innings since he was a starter back in 2012. He is expected to miss Opening Day and that was reported way back in early December. Even if he only misses the first month of the season (latest news), the Cubs should manage his innings appropriately. Ratcheting the IP down to just over half to 36 produces a $1 player as shown in the second table.

As you can see, playing time plays a big factor in the projections, and in turn the dollar value output we are getting from Draft Buddy or Last Player Picked which form our rankings. We will discuss playing time projections in more detail through February and March leading up to Opening Day.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Friday September 14

September 14, 2018 By kopasetic Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Chicago White Sox are facing a RHP on road (Luis Ortiz BAL who has faced 7 batters). On FanDuel the White Sox are currently putting up 2.02 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and Luis Ortiz is currently allowing 257% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 5.19 (2.02 x 257%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
White Sox RHP on road Luis Ortiz BAL 7 2.02 x 257% 5.19 +3.17 1.54 x 239% 3.69 +2.14
Yankees RHP at home Marco Estrada TOR 562 2.56 x 122% 3.12 +0.56 1.92 x 121% 2.32 +0.40
Cubs LHP at home Matt Harvey CIN 594 2.46 x 109% 2.69 +0.23 1.86 x 110% 2.04 +0.18
Tigers RHP on road Josh Tomlin CLE 256 1.81 x 146% 2.65 +0.84 1.40 x 146% 2.05 +0.65
Brewers RHP at home Chris Archer PIT 566 2.29 x 107% 2.46 +0.17 1.74 x 107% 1.86 +0.13
Athletics TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 2.42 x 100% 2.42 +0.00 1.83 x 100% 1.83 +0.00
Orioles RHP at home James Shields CHW 797 2.16 x 109% 2.36 +0.20 1.65 x 107% 1.77 +0.12
Phillies LHP at home Wei-Yin Chen MIA 506 2.18 x 107% 2.33 +0.15 1.64 x 106% 1.73 +0.10
Rockies RHP on road Chris Stratton SFG 540 2.00 x 114% 2.29 +0.29 1.52 x 114% 1.73 +0.21
Astros LHP at home Robbie Ray ARI 439 2.24 x 102% 2.28 +0.04 1.70 x 100% 1.71 +0.00
Mets RHP on road Hector Velazquez BOS 336 2.33 x 96% 2.23 -0.10 1.76 x 99% 1.74 -0.02
Giants LHP at home Tyler Anderson COL 664 1.96 x 114% 2.22 +0.27 1.51 x 112% 1.70 +0.19
Red Sox RHP at home Noah Syndergaard NYM 545 2.52 x 86% 2.16 -0.36 1.92 x 88% 1.69 -0.22
Angels TBD at home TBD/Bullpen SEA – 2.17 x 100% 2.17 +0.00 1.64 x 100% 1.64 +0.00
Pirates LHP on road Gio Gonzalez MIL 667 2.08 x 103% 2.15 +0.07 1.60 x 103% 1.64 +0.04
Nationals RHP on road Kevin Gausman ATL 703 2.13 x 100% 2.12 -0.01 1.62 x 101% 1.64 +0.02
Indians LHP at home Matt Boyd DET 655 2.28 x 94% 2.15 -0.14 1.72 x 93% 1.60 -0.12
Blue Jays RHP on road Masahiro Tanaka NYY 571 2.13 x 95% 2.03 -0.10 1.61 x 96% 1.55 -0.06
Marlins RHP on road Zach Eflin PHI 487 1.87 x 108% 2.02 +0.14 1.45 x 107% 1.56 +0.11
Reds LHP on road Cole Hamels CHC 698 1.99 x 100% 1.98 +0.00 1.56 x 100% 1.55 +0.00
Rays RHP at home Edwin Jackson OAK 318 2.11 x 93% 1.97 -0.14 1.62 x 93% 1.50 -0.11
Royals RHP at home Jose Berrios MIN 718 2.10 x 93% 1.95 -0.15 1.61 x 93% 1.50 -0.12
Padres TBD at home TBD/Bullpen TEX – 1.95 x 100% 1.95 +0.00 1.49 x 100% 1.49 +0.00
Diamondbacks LHP on road Dallas Keuchel HOU 788 2.09 x 92% 1.92 -0.17 1.60 x 94% 1.49 -0.10
Dodgers RHP on road Jack Flaherty STL 535 2.39 x 82% 1.96 -0.43 1.80 x 81% 1.47 -0.33
Mariners RHP on road Matt Shoemaker LAA 62 2.17 x 88% 1.90 -0.26 1.67 x 87% 1.45 -0.22
Twins RHP on road Jorge Lopez KCR 201 2.01 x 88% 1.77 -0.24 1.53 x 87% 1.34 -0.19
Rangers LHP on road Robbie Erlin SDP 376 1.67 x 103% 1.71 +0.05 1.28 x 104% 1.34 +0.05
Cardinals RHP at home Walker Buehler LAD 442 2.05 x 81% 1.66 -0.39 1.56 x 82% 1.28 -0.28
Braves RHP at home Max Scherzer WSN 788 2.16 x 73% 1.57 -0.58 1.64 x 74% 1.21 -0.42

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Baseball

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Wednesday August 22

August 22, 2018 By kopasetic Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Colorado Rockies are facing a RHP at home (Jacob Nix SDP who has faced 34 batters). On FanDuel the Rockies are currently putting up 2.28 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Jacob Nix is currently allowing 117% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.68 (2.28 x 117%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Rockies RHP at home Jacob Nix SDP 34 2.28 x 117% 2.68 +0.40 1.74 x 117% 2.03 +0.29
Diamondbacks RHP at home Odrisamer Despaigne LAA 110 2.10 x 122% 2.57 +0.47 1.59 x 118% 1.88 +0.29
Cubs RHP on road Francisco Liriano DET 425 2.13 x 114% 2.44 +0.30 1.64 x 112% 1.83 +0.19
Red Sox RHP at home Carlos Carrasco CLE 577 2.49 x 89% 2.21 -0.28 1.89 x 91% 1.71 -0.18
Nationals RHP at home Zach Eflin PHI 399 2.31 x 96% 2.23 -0.09 1.75 x 97% 1.69 -0.06
Rays RHP at home Jakob Junis KCR 578 2.00 x 110% 2.20 +0.20 1.54 x 110% 1.69 +0.15
Tigers LHP at home Jon Lester CHC 592 2.17 x 101% 2.20 +0.03 1.66 x 102% 1.69 +0.03
Indians LHP on road Brian Johnson BOS 338 2.14 x 101% 2.17 +0.03 1.64 x 102% 1.68 +0.04
Yankees RHP on road Trevor Richards MIA 393 2.15 x 102% 2.19 +0.04 1.63 x 102% 1.65 +0.03
Pirates RHP at home Julio Teheran ATL 558 2.07 x 103% 2.13 +0.06 1.58 x 100% 1.59 +0.00
Braves RHP on road Trevor Williams PIT 541 2.16 x 92% 2.00 -0.16 1.65 x 93% 1.53 -0.12
Phillies RHP on road Stephen Strasburg WSN 351 1.98 x 99% 1.96 -0.02 1.51 x 99% 1.50 -0.01
Padres RHP on road Jon Gray COL 573 1.84 x 104% 1.92 +0.08 1.43 x 104% 1.48 +0.06
Dodgers RHP at home Jack Flaherty STL 443 2.26 x 85% 1.91 -0.35 1.71 x 84% 1.45 -0.27
Angels RHP on road Clay Buchholz ARI 295 2.25 x 82% 1.84 -0.41 1.72 x 84% 1.44 -0.27
Marlins RHP at home Lance Lynn NYY 553 1.79 x 104% 1.86 +0.07 1.39 x 102% 1.43 +0.03
Cardinals RHP on road Walker Buehler LAD 351 2.19 x 83% 1.82 -0.37 1.67 x 84% 1.40 -0.27
Royals TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 1.70 x 100% 1.70 +0.00 1.31 x 100% 1.31 +0.00
Giants RHP on road Noah Syndergaard NYM 428 1.78 x 85% 1.51 -0.27 1.39 x 88% 1.22 -0.17
Mets RHP at home Casey Kelly SFG 45 1.80 x 71% 1.27 -0.53 1.38 x 78% 1.08 -0.30

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Blue Jays RHP at home David Hess BAL 291 2.31 x 125% 2.89 +0.59 1.75 x 123% 2.16 +0.41
Brewers RHP at home Robert Stephenson CIN 31 2.24 x 124% 2.78 +0.54 1.70 x 114% 1.94 +0.24
Astros LHP on road Marco Gonzales SEA 588 2.49 x 97% 2.41 -0.07 1.90 x 99% 1.88 -0.02
Athletics LHP at home Mike Minor TEX 508 2.09 x 109% 2.28 +0.20 1.58 x 109% 1.72 +0.14
White Sox RHP at home Kyle Gibson MIN 640 2.14 x 91% 1.95 -0.19 1.64 x 91% 1.50 -0.14
Reds RHP on road Freddy Peralta MIL 259 2.04 x 96% 1.97 -0.07 1.56 x 92% 1.43 -0.13
Mariners RHP at home Charlie Morton HOU 587 2.01 x 83% 1.67 -0.34 1.56 x 83% 1.30 -0.26
Rangers RHP on road Edwin Jackson OAK 237 2.01 x 83% 1.67 -0.33 1.53 x 84% 1.28 -0.25
Orioles TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TOR – 1.60 x 100% 1.60 +0.00 1.26 x 100% 1.26 +0.00
Twins LHP on road Carlos Rodon CHW 321 1.82 x 78% 1.42 -0.40 1.39 x 77% 1.08 -0.32

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Baseball

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