How many projected plate appearances for Chicago Cubs SS Javier Baez in 2019? Steamer had 602, giving us a $20 player, but adjusting to 675 pushes Baez to $25, more in line with his late-1st round pick ADP.
In case you missed the note on Facebook and Twitter earlier this week, we have a version 2.0 of fantasy baseball Draft Buddy ready to download.
New version of #fantasybaseball Draft Buddy now available. If you already have 1.0, then go download 2.0 https://t.co/WFcPBsW7DI
— DraftBuddy.com (@DraftBuddy) January 28, 2019
The reason for the changes include some minor fixes:
- drafting players with multiple positions listed on ADP tab did not copy to draft report tab properly
- team target percentage totals were not flowing correctly from roto tab to hitters-tp and pitchers-tp tabs
- formula fixes on roto tabs that impacted large leagues
- a handful of pitchers were on the hitters data tab instead of the pitchers data tab
That was it, not too much, but the last one, a significant enough change in our Draft Buddy player pool for either the hitters or pitchers means it is better to roll out a brand new version to help future projection updates. So, if you already have version 1.0, then please download and replace it with version 2.0.
Oh, and I updated the download page for 2019 to include a tentative projections update schedule. Next update is Thursday this week, and every two weeks through February and every week after that. Plus unscheduled updates as necessary for major news. In case you haven’t heard, there are a couple of key free agents still unsigned.
Copying Data From Version 1.0 to 2.0
Here is a tip if you are mid-draft and want to update versions. Download and set up version 2.0 for your league the same as you currently have for 1.0 so the draft report tabs are identical rounds and picks in each. Then with both files open in Excel, copy just the yellow highlighted cells in your 1.0 and paste them (usually best to paste special > as values) into the same spot on the draft or auction report tab in 2.0.
If that fails – like, you are sure you are hitting Copy (CTRL-C) but the Paste (CTRL-V) just won’t register on the 2.0 side, then close both files, open them again but disable macros. Now the copy should work. Save, close both, re-open 2.0 and enable macros, as you normally would. I have some programming that triggers when to calculate and when to not calculate, to speed up Draft Buddy. This can impact copy-paste from tab to tab, or file to file.
Now lets talk about a bigger change…
Steamer Playing Time Adjustments
We’ve used Steamer projections for a number of years in Draft Buddy and over this time they’ve grown in reputation as a top resource of projected player stats. They are a great start from which to help calculate our fantasy baseball player values.
Steamer uses an algorithm based on prior performance metrics to assess the projected output for all players. However, many players with known – or anticipated – differences in their projected playing time may have projections that are inconsistent with their likely (within a range) innings pitched or plate appearances.
In the past, we relied on Fangraphs for playing time adjustments, the playing time submitted by their large audience of users. As I’ve taken a harder look at the numbers this year, these may not be the best option for us. I noticed a number of outliers in the rankings created by Draft Buddy or Last Player Picked, based on the Steamer projections, and I believe it is a result of the projected playing time.
Javier Baez
| $ | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 602 | 76 | 28 | 88 | 17 | .269 |
| $ | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 675 | 85 | 31 | 99 | 19 | .269 |
The top table is Javier Baez dollar value from Last Player Picked using Steamer projections straight from Fangraphs, the last time I pulled those on January 17. A $20 player is a top 30-35 hitter, but not top 15 where he is currently being drafted in the NFBC.
The problem? His plate appearances are only 602. A check of a couple sources project Baez for 675 PA at Roster Resource and 667 PA at Razzball. When I adjust the PA to 675, now he is a $25 player, a value more in line with his ADP.
Brandon Morrow
| $ | IP | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 65 | 4 | 36 | 69 | 3.46 | 1.21 |
| $ | IP | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36 | 2 | 20 | 38 | 3.50 | 1.22 |
Former Blue Jay Brandon Morrow really stuck out for me because of name recognition, in part, but mostly because at $8 based on the initial Steamer projections he ranked in the top 10 relievers in Draft Buddy. Those projections are with 65 innings of work.
Problem? Morrow hasn’t pitched 65 innings since he was a starter back in 2012. He is expected to miss Opening Day and that was reported way back in early December. Even if he only misses the first month of the season (latest news), the Cubs should manage his innings appropriately. Ratcheting the IP down to just over half to 36 produces a $1 player as shown in the second table.
As you can see, playing time plays a big factor in the projections, and in turn the dollar value output we are getting from Draft Buddy or Last Player Picked which form our rankings. We will discuss playing time projections in more detail through February and March leading up to Opening Day.
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