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Fantasy Football Rankings—Wide Receivers, Updated

May 13, 2010 By Dave 2 Comments

Here’s the final instalment of this round of my updated fantasy football player rankings. With the quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends already covered, this time we look at the wide receiver position.

There are some significant movements in the rankings. In the top 20, we see Larry Fitzgerald now cracking the top five, Brandon Marshall dropping out of the top ten, DeSean Jackson barely holding on to his ranking in the top ten and Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes seeing significant movement due to Holmes’ trade to the Jets.

Lower in the rankings, Wes Welker drops due to injury concerns, Mike Wallace has his fantasy value solidified, Santana Moss moves way up and Jerricho Cotchery and Roy Williams see their fantasy values plummet.

The biggest developments since my initial rankings, published in early-March, were as follows:

  • Brandon Marshall traded to the Miami Dolphins,
  • Santonio Holmes moving to the Jets,
  • Donovan McNabb traded to the Washington Redskins,
  • Ben Roethlisberger’s four to six game suspension, and
  • Jason Campbell traded to the Oakland Raiders.

The only potential major issues to be resolved before training camp are where Terrell Owens lands and if Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson is suspended.

Each player’s prior ranking is noted in parentheses after the current ranking.

1. (1) Andre Johnson, HOU

Has topped 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. He’s the consensus number one wide receiver for fantasy purposes and I fully expect every ranking to have him here. If not, find a ranking by a sane person.

2. (2) Randy Moss, NE

Wes Welker figures to miss at least a portion of the season so Moss will get plenty of targets and he’s still a threat in the red zone and on deep plays. Unless he pouts, Moss is pretty much guaranteed production.

3. (3) Roddy White, ATL

Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense should improve on a somewhat disappointing 2009 season and White figures to benefit.

4. (4) Miles Austin, DAL

You could make the case that the presence of first round pick Dez White will cut into Austin’s production but Roy Williams figures to lose out from that more than Austin. Bit of a risk because 2009 was a breakout season but he’s obviously Tony Romo’s go to guy in a solid offense.

5. (11) Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

Moves up six spots but still a risk with Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson atop the depth chart at quarterback. Fitz benefits from others moving down.

6. (8) Calvin Johnson, DET

The Lions offense should be more explosive with the addition of running back Jahvid Best and Johnson figures to benefit in the touchdown department. In fact, the Lions offense could surprise in 2010 so Johnson should be considered a bit of a buy low option.

7. (9) Greg Jennings, GB

Dropped to four touchdowns after scoring 21 during the 2007 and 2008 seasons but expect a rebound in 2010.

8. (10) Marques Colston, NO

Mike Bell is gone so maybe the Saints will pass it even more in 2010. Either way, Colston looks like a sure bet to finish in the top ten.

9. (7) Vincent Jackson, SD

If healthy, he’s pretty much guaranteed production. However, monitor his situation since he could be suspended for one or two games due to his off the field troubles.

10. (6) DeSean Jackson, PHI

Plenty of big plays but moves down a bit with the trade of Donovan McNabb. I like Kevin Kolb but expect a slight drop-off from what McNabb would have accomplished this year in Philly.

11. (12) Reggie Wayne, IND

Really slumped during the last seven games of 2009 with 385 yards and two touchdowns which may be a signal that he’s slowing down a bit. The emergence of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie coupled with the return of Anthony Gonzalez figures to impact his production as well.

12. (5) Brandon Marshall, DEN

Simply put, the Dolphins offense runs the ball too much and Chad Henne is too green to put a Dolphins receiver, even one as talented as Marshall, in the top ten. Sometimes, it’s that simple.

13. (13) Sidney Rice, MIN

Bit of a risk due to his breakout performance in 2009 but one I’m willing to take at this point, especially with expectations of Favre returning in 2010.

14. (16) Anquan Boldin, BAL

If he’s healthy, chalk him up for 8-10 touchdowns and over 1,000 yards. Don’t believe the hype that he produced in Arizona only because he had Fitzgerald opposite him.

15. (15) Hakeem Nicks, NYG

Younger version of Boldin, he had 115 fantasy points on only 74 targets, ranking him fifth in fantasy points per target in the league last season (minimum 45 targets), showing how explosive he is. The Giants are sure to have him more involved in 2010.

16. (17) Chad Ochocinco, CIN

A year older but Antonio Bryant won’t cut into his production and they didn’t add anything in the draft that would reduce his role.

17. (20) Steve Smith, NYG

Two Giants in the top 17. Yikes!

18. (18) Michael Crabtree, SF

No change for Crabtree but less risk and more upside potential with the addition of two offensive lineman being taken in the first round.

19. (22) Steve Smith, CAR

Up three spots but a bit more risk if rookie Jimmy Clausen takes over for Matt Moore midseason.

20. (26) Hines Ward, PIT

Loses with the Roethlisberger suspension but gains targets with Holmes departing for the Jets.

21. (21) Percy Harvin, MIN

More convinced than ever that he’s the real deal. Upside at this point but hard to have him higher in the rankings.

22. (19) Mike Sims-Walker, JAC

Talented player who lacks consistency. However, little risk given he’s clearly the top wide receiver in Jacksonville.

23. (23) Dwayne Bowe, KC

Needs to get it together and stay out of Todd Haley’s doghouse. Next screw up could cost him a 16 game suspension.

24. (24) Donald Driver, GB

Only had 185 yards and no touchdowns during the last four regular season games of 2009 so there are some signs he’s slowing down. However, that risk is offset due to his prominence in Green Bay’s solid offense.

25. (28) Mike Wallace, PIT

I liked him before the Holmes trade and I love him now, even with the Roethlisberger suspension. Wallace has an explosive rookie year with 756 yards and six touchdowns, and certainly made the Steelers’ decision to turf Holmes much easier.

26. (38) Braylon Edwards, NYJ

Why is he up 12 spots even with the Holmes addition? I guess I figure the Jets offense will be more explosive in 2010 and he will benefit in the touchdown department. I still have him projected for under 1,000 yards however.

27. (33) Robert Meachem, NO

Has all the tools and major upside playing in the Saints offense. Look for an increased role for Meachem at the expense of Devery Henderson. Recent toe surgery increases Meachem’s risk.

28. (29) Kenny Britt, TEN

Coming off a nice rookie season with over 700 yards and three touchdowns, but with reports that he was so out of shape that the Titans refused to let him practice, apparently it’s gone to his head. Add a risk factor to this second year player.

29. (34) Malcom Floyd, SD

Another case of a player benefiting from an addition on offense, in this case rookie running back Ryan Mathews. The Chargers love tall, physical receivers and that description fits Floyd.

30. (25) Jeremy Maclin, PHI

I like Maclin and think he will be a star but he moves down with Kolb taking over at quarterback.

31. (32) Devin Aromashodu, CHI

Earl Bennett is a little slow, Johnny Knox is a little small and new offensive coordinator Mike Martz has said Devin Hester is best suited for the slot. Although head coach Love Smith disputed Martz’ version of where Hester will line up, Martz is nothing if not stubborn. Add it all up and Aromashodu is the guy I’m gambling on to benefit from Martz’ presence in Chicago.

32. (31) Steve Breaston, ARI

Moves into the starting line-up with Boldin’s departure but I expect Larry Fitzgerald and Early Doucet to get more red zone looks which limits his upside.

33. (27) Wes Welker, NE

It now appears that Welker will miss time in 2010 so he’s moving down, but watch for rehab updates and don’t wait too long to grab him, especially in PPR leagues.

34. (36) Mario Manningham, NYG

If Steve Smith is the real deal (more likely than not), then Manningham has limited upside given Hakeem Nicks is all but guaranteed a starting spot. He is definitely worth taking a flier on though.

35. (35) Nate Burleson, DET

36. (51) Santana Moss, WAS

Moves up a whopping 15 spots courtesy of the Redskins acquisition of Donovan McNabb and rookie offensive tackle Trent Williams.

37. (39) Pierre Garcon, IND

Coming off a solid season but he and Peyton Manning were clearly not always on the same page, hence his completion rate of 51% as opposed to Manning’s overall rate of 68.8%. The Colts prefer reliability and Anthony Gonzalez may bring more of it which would limit Garcon’s upside unless he hits the playbook hard.

38. (41) Derrick Mason, BAL

Up a little but there’s no reason to think he will reprise his role from previous seasons because he and Boldin are similar players, only Boldin is bigger, stronger and faster.

39. (14) Santonio Holmes, PIT

Most significant drop in the rankings due to his trade to the Jets and subsequent four-game suspension. Buy low and hope he contributes heavily over 12 games.

40. (43) Anthony Gonzalez, IND

I like his game but Garcon deserves playing time outside and Collie deserves playing time in the slot. However, he’s a solid option for Manning who has caught 71.8% of the passes thrown his way during his first three years in the league.

41. (40) Lee Evans, BUF

No upgrade at quarterback so no upgrade for Evans.

42. (44) Devery Henderson, NO

What you see is what you get. In six years, the highest fantasy points per game he earned is 8.0. There’s no reason for him to surpass that in 2010.

43. (45) Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE

He was productive as a rookie and has some upside but only a little upside given the Browns quarterback situation and anaemic passing attack.

44. (37) T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA

Down seven spots due to rookie Golden Tate’s presence in the line-up.

45. (46) Chris Chambers, KC

46. (NR) Golden Tate, SEA

Our first rookie wide receiver, Tate has a solid opportunity to get playing time in Seattle. If only the quarterback situation were more stable.

47. (42) Earl Bennett, CHI

Definitely not the prototypical wide receiver for a Martz offense given his lack of speed.

48. (49) Chaz Schilens,OAK

On the plus side, the Raiders figure to be better at quarterback with Jason Campbell and he is Oakland’s best receiver. On the minus side, he recently had follow up surgery on his left foot which he broke last August.

49. (50) Early Doucet, ARI

Doucet looks the part but has been inconsistent in Arizona. However, he has ability and could surprise. Doucet represents solid sleeper material.

50. (NR) Dez Bryant, DAL

Cowboys rookie has Pro Bowl potential but giving up his lunch during his first OTA was not encouraging. If he can beat out Roy Williams, he moves way up.

51. (57) Eddie Royal, DEN

What a fantasy roller coaster of an offseason for Royal. Huge fantasy disappointment in 2009 kept him down in the rankings, the Brandon Marshall trade moved him back into the low 30’s and the acquisitions of Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker in the draft leave him at 51, up six spots.

52. (30) Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ

Solid player but way down due to the Holmes trade.

53. (52) Kevin Walter, HOU

Could benefit if Owen Daniels is slow to recover from a torn ACL.

54. (47) Antonio Bryant, CIN

Bryant is mercurial, the Bengals don’t throw it a lot and they have a pile of wide receivers.

55. (NR) Demaryius Thomas, DEN

Head coach Josh McDaniels clearly has no use for any player he didn’t bring in so Thomas figures to get plenty of playing time. Unfortunately, he might be catching (or trying to catch) passes from Tim Tebow by mid-season.

56. (54) Devin Thomas, WAS

It’s nice that Donovan McNabb is in town but not so nice that the Redskins are loading up on journeyman retread wide receivers. Not a sign of confidence in Thomas and fellow third year wideout Malcolm Kelly.

57. (48) Donnie Avery, STL

Avery here is proof that love is not always blind. Hence, this Rams fan puts the first Rams wide receiver in the rankings way down at 57.

58. (55) Josh Morgan, SF

Look for Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis to get most of the targets in 2010.

59. (NR) Arrelious Benn, TB

Guaranteed a spot on opening day, but also guaranteed to be average with Josh Freeman at quarterback. Check back in 2011.

60. (59) Jacoby Jones, HOU

Texans head coach Gary Kubiak says he loves Jones’ potential. If that’s the case, why did they sign Kevin Walter to a lucrative long-term contract?

61. (70) Malcolm Kelly, WAS

Why is he up nine spots? Good question.

62. (60) Jason Avant, PHI

Has improved in each of his four years in the league but unlikely to supplant Jackson or Maclin.

63. (62) Johnny Knox, CHI

Monitor him to see if he cracks the starting line-up.

64. (63) Bernard Berrian, MIN

I don’t like him, never have and Rice and Harvin are too good not to get the targets.

65. (64) Devin Hester, CHI

Upon further reflection, Hester really didn’t show much last year and now he has to learn the Martz offense.

66. (NR) Greg Camarillo, MIA

Probably the best option on the outside opposite Marshall.

67. (68) Laurent Robinson, STL

Was pretty good for two games last year before getting hurt.

68. (65) James Jones, GB

Looks like he’s solidified his spot ahead of Jordy Nelson.

69. (56) Roy Williams, DAL

Here’s the thing—when you catch 44.2% of the passes thrown your way, your team may use its first round pick on a wide receiver to replace you and then your fantasy value plummets, even if you were considered top 20 fantasy material a year ago.

70. (67) Brandon Gibson, STL

I like his game. Gibson showed some potential as a possession receiver and rookie quarterback Sam Bradford is going to need a security blanket. Maybe he surprises in PPR leagues.

The following players dropped off the rankings from last time:

NR (53) Davone Bess, MIA
NR (58) Mike Thomas, JAC
NR (61) Deion Branch, SEA
NR (66) Nate Washington, TEN
NR (69) Patrick Crayton, DAL

More Rankings: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Tight Ends

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Antonio Bryant to Bengals—Fantasy Impact

March 11, 2010 By Dave 1 Comment

Almost one year after signing Laveranues Coles to be the team’s starting wide receiver opposite Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals have signed former Buc Antonio Bryant to provide the production Coles failed to. Bryant has signed for a reported $28 million over four years.

Bryant is coming off a down year in Tampa Bay which was partly due to knee surgery during training camp. The Bucs also used inexperienced quarterbacks for most of the year. In 13 games, he had 39 receptions for 600 yards and four touchdowns.

The Bengals are hoping that his knee is fully recovered and that he can duplicate his career year in 2008 when he had 83 receptions for 1,248 yards and seven touchdowns, all career highs. The team struggled in the passing game in 2009, finishing 26th in yards passing while featuring the league’s 9th best running attack.

Although Bryant isn’t a true burner, he is a strong, physical receiver who is adept at making acrobatic catches and is capable of getting deep, as evidenced by his career average yards per catch of 15.4.


Fantasy Impact

In Cincinnati, Bryant joins a team that morphed from being a passing team to a running team during the 2009 season. The team averaged just 181 yards passing last year and quarterback Carson Palmer had his worst year statistically since his second year in the league (excluding his injury shortened 2008 season).

With the Bengals making the playoffs using an offense based heavily on the run, there is little reason to suggest they will change that in 2010. Bryant figures to be more productive than Coles, who clearly lost a step in 2009, or Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson, 2nd year players last year who clearly were not ready for feature roles.

Bryant figures to slot in as a fantasy WR4 or WR5 with upside. However, look for him to be drafted higher than that based on his strong 2008 campaign and perhaps the unfounded belief that the Bengals will revert back to their pass happy ways. A season of 750 yards and 4-6 touchdowns seems likely.

Bryant’s presence should have no effect on Ochocinco but certainly hinders the prospects of Caldwell and Simpson as well as Matt Jones. Caldwell figures to get the work out of the slot with Jones being used more in the red zone. Simpson might be looking for employment elsewhere in 2010.

As for Palmer, his status as a fantasy backup remains unchanged. Ignore these stats at your own peril—only nine games with over 200 yards passing, one game with over 300 yards passing and just five multi-touchdown games. He moves up in the rankings with Bryant on board but remains a low end backup at this point.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Mock Draft Continues

June 1, 2009 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

I left off last time discussing my first mock draft of the year as it neared the middle of the second round. My team started off by selecting WR Larry Fitzgerald at 1.09 and RB Marion Barber at 2.04. One thing I forgot to include in the last post was the link to the draft hosted at MyFantasyLeague.com, so you can follow along.

After plugging away through the weekend we are now in the middle of the sixth round, so there is a fair bit to update. Click the link above or review the following images for the draft results, and then I will comment on the thinking behind each of my picks.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft
Fantasy Football Mock Draft

FF Toolbox May Mock Draft, Rounds 2-6

3.09 RB Ronnie Brown – I was debating Reggie Bush vs. Ronnie Brown for this pick before ThunderingBlurb snatched up Bush, making my decision for me. This is Brown’s second year back from a knee injury that cut short a phenomenal first half of the 2007 season. With Ricky now 32, Brown should see more workload shifted his way. Brown is no slouch catching the ball either, recording over 30 receptions in each of his 4 seasons.

4.04 TE Antonio Gates – This is a little earlier than I would like to take Gates, but I’m not enamored with the available WR at this spot either since T.J. Houshmandzadeh just left the building. In terms of picking Gates over Tony Gonzalez, I prefer Gates based on youth and having a better QB. Even though Gonzo was a better option last year with marginal QBs, I believe Gates’ off year was mostly due to recovering from that toe injury that I would hope is now behind him.

5.09 WR Chad Ochocinco – I was hoping Aaron Rodgers would fall to this pick but he went back at the 5.04. While that still left Kurt Warner and Tony Romo as options at QB, I’m already invested in the Cards and Cowboys, have more confidence in Rodgers going into this season and prefer to pass on QB now to get my second WR, where pickings are getting a little slim. Based on the preliminary projections from Mike Krueger at FF Today, Antonio Bryant is ranked higher than Ochocinco (never going to get used to typing that name), but I feel Bryant should slip a little further and Ocho provides good value here given the talent/situation/potential if he can play nice with his coaches and teammates. Admittedly, a big “if”…

6.04 WR Antonio Bryant – Ah, here he is. Warner just got nabbed and Romo is still available, but given the risk with Ochocinco, it is a good idea to go back to the well at WR right away. Plus to get FF Today’s 12th ranked WR in the 6th round is a good deal. Bryant is a bit of a headcase himself, having worn out his welcome a few times in his career. He produced great in the second half of last season though. Playing the percentages, there is a good chance at least one of Ocho and Bryant will outperform their draft position. The other consideration here was upside RB Jonathan Stewart who ended up going a pick later.

Looking ahead, top priorities are clearly a starting QB, a primary backup RB and then depth plus a defense and kicker in the final rounds. Tony Romo did get picked at 6.07 which is fine. I’m not convinced it will be addition by subtraction for Romo having exchanged Terrell Owens for Roy Williams. I’m looking at Donovan McNabb as the last Tier 2 QB on my rankings, so we’ll see if he makes it back.

Now how does this happen? FantasySharks selected pick 6.12 at 3:00pm Eastern, 5.5 hours ago, and has not made their pick at 7.01 immediately after. Talk about not paying attention to what is going on. I guess this is why we mock draft so early. Not only to see where players fall, but to get our collective heads on straight.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

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