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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Sunday August 12

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The New York Yankees are facing a LHP at home (Martin Perez TEX who has faced 252 batters). On FanDuel the Yankees are currently putting up 2.55 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP at home and Martin Perez is currently allowing 134% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.42 (2.55 x 134%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Yankees LHP at home Martin Perez TEX 252 2.55 x 134% 3.42 +0.87 1.92 x 135% 2.60 +0.68
Red Sox RHP on road Alex Cobb BAL 520 2.38 x 123% 2.94 +0.56 1.80 x 123% 2.22 +0.42
Dodgers RHP on road Chad Bettis COL 433 2.39 x 118% 2.82 +0.42 1.80 x 116% 2.09 +0.29
Rockies LHP at home Rich Hill LAD 341 2.58 x 97% 2.50 -0.08 1.98 x 97% 1.92 -0.05
Cardinals RHP on road Jakob Junis KCR 530 2.16 x 114% 2.47 +0.31 1.64 x 114% 1.88 +0.23
Astros TBD at home TBD/Bullpen SEA – 2.43 x 100% 2.43 +0.00 1.85 x 100% 1.85 +0.00
Indians RHP on road Dylan Covey CHW 358 2.09 x 115% 2.41 +0.32 1.59 x 113% 1.80 +0.21
Athletics TBD on road TBD/Bullpen LAA – 2.37 x 100% 2.37 +0.00 1.79 x 100% 1.79 +0.00
Diamondbacks RHP on road Luis Castillo CIN 515 2.06 x 111% 2.28 +0.22 1.56 x 110% 1.71 +0.15
Mets LHP on road Wei-Yin Chen MIA 388 1.97 x 116% 2.27 +0.31 1.49 x 114% 1.70 +0.21
Blue Jays RHP at home Tyler Glasnow TBR 268 2.30 x 99% 2.27 -0.03 1.75 x 97% 1.69 -0.06
Nationals LHP on road Cole Hamels CHC 549 1.99 x 110% 2.20 +0.20 1.51 x 109% 1.65 +0.14
Rays RHP on road Marcus Stroman TOR 396 1.96 x 109% 2.12 +0.17 1.51 x 107% 1.62 +0.11
Reds RHP at home Zack Godley ARI 578 2.13 x 100% 2.14 +0.00 1.62 x 99% 1.60 -0.01
Braves RHP at home Chase Anderson MIL 511 2.10 x 99% 2.07 -0.03 1.60 x 98% 1.57 -0.03
White Sox RHP at home Carlos Carrasco CLE 526 2.12 x 95% 2.01 -0.11 1.63 x 97% 1.57 -0.06
Angels RHP at home Trevor Cahill OAK 297 2.39 x 84% 2.01 -0.38 1.80 x 84% 1.52 -0.28
Mariners LHP on road Dallas Keuchel HOU 627 2.16 x 90% 1.94 -0.22 1.66 x 91% 1.52 -0.14
Royals RHP at home Luke Weaver STL 528 1.86 x 104% 1.93 +0.07 1.43 x 104% 1.50 +0.06
Giants RHP at home Joe Musgrove PIT 314 2.13 x 87% 1.85 -0.27 1.62 x 89% 1.44 -0.18
Pirates RHP on road Dereck Rodriguez SFG 296 2.23 x 79% 1.76 -0.47 1.70 x 81% 1.38 -0.32
Brewers LHP on road Sean Newcomb ATL 514 2.06 x 86% 1.77 -0.28 1.57 x 86% 1.34 -0.23
Rangers LHP on road CC Sabathia NYY 494 1.80 x 98% 1.75 -0.04 1.38 x 98% 1.36 -0.02
Padres RHP at home Jake Arrieta PHI 520 1.86 x 94% 1.75 -0.11 1.43 x 94% 1.34 -0.09
Phillies LHP on road Joey Lucchesi SDP 349 1.75 x 99% 1.74 -0.01 1.34 x 100% 1.34 +0.00
Twins LHP on road Matt Boyd DET 510 1.81 x 96% 1.73 -0.08 1.38 x 94% 1.31 -0.08
Cubs RHP at home Max Scherzer WSN 632 2.25 x 75% 1.68 -0.57 1.70 x 76% 1.29 -0.41
Marlins RHP at home Noah Syndergaard NYM 370 1.83 x 84% 1.53 -0.30 1.42 x 87% 1.23 -0.19
Tigers LHP at home Adalberto Mejia MIN 92 2.24 x 62% 1.39 -0.86 1.72 x 65% 1.11 -0.61
Orioles LHP at home Chris Sale BOS 550 2.10 x 65% 1.37 -0.73 1.62 x 67% 1.08 -0.54

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups to Stack / Avoid Tuesday June 26

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Stack #1
Braves
·
Stack #2
Giants
·
Stack #3
Diamondbacks

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.

My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

How to Read the Charts
The Atlanta Braves are facing a LHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.23 FanDuel and 1.69 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is LHP Matt Harvey CIN and he is currently allowing 119% more ppa in FanDuel and 118% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.098 on FanDuel and 1.600 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.23 x 119% in FanDuel and 1.69 x 118% in DraftKings.

FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.098 through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa
Stack ATL LHP at home 2.23 Matt Harvey CIN 119% 2.66
Stack SFG RHP at home 2.30 Chad Bettis COL 116% 2.66
Stack ARI RHP on road 2.07 Elieser Hernandez MIA 118% 2.45
Stack PIT LHP on road 2.33 Steven Matz NYM 104% 2.41
Stack COL LHP on road 2.16 Derek Holland SFG 111% 2.41
— — — — — — —
Avoid CHC RHP on road 2.20 Ross Stripling LAD 73% 1.61
Avoid PHI RHP at home 2.24 Luis Severino NYY 69% 1.55
Avoid STL RHP at home 2.02 Corey Kluber CLE 71% 1.43

DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.600 through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa
Stack ATL LHP at home 1.69 Matt Harvey CIN 118% 1.99
Stack SFG RHP at home 1.75 Chad Bettis COL 114% 2.01
Stack ARI RHP on road 1.56 Elieser Hernandez MIA 120% 1.86
Stack PIT LHP on road 1.75 Steven Matz NYM 102% 1.79
Stack COL LHP on road 1.65 Derek Holland SFG 110% 1.81
— — — — — — —
Avoid CHC RHP on road 1.68 Ross Stripling LAD 78% 1.31
Avoid PHI RHP at home 1.68 Luis Severino NYY 71% 1.20
Avoid STL RHP at home 1.55 Corey Kluber CLE 74% 1.14

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups to Stack / Avoid Wednesday June 20

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Stack #1
Yankees
·
Stack #2
Nationals
·
Stack #3
Mets

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.

My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

How to Read the Charts
The Yankees are facing a RHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.54 FanDuel and 1.89 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is Felix Hernandez SEA and he is currently allowing 114% more ppa in FanDuel and 112% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.09 on FanDuel and 1.60 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.54 x 114% in FanDuel and 1.89 x 112% in DraftKings.

FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.09 through Sunday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa
Stack NYY RHP at home 2.54 Felix Hernandez SEA 114% 2.88
Stack WSN RHP at home 2.04 Andrew Cashner BAL 125% 2.55
Stack NYM RHP on road 2.24 Chad Bettis COL 109% 2.45
Stack BOS RHP on road 2.27 Lance Lynn MIN 108% 2.45
Stack KCR RHP at home 1.80 Austin Bibens-Dirkx TEX 128% 2.30
— — — — — — —
Avoid TBR RHP on road 1.84 Charlie Morton HOU 86% 1.59
Avoid BAL LHP on road 1.63 Gio Gonzalez WSN 90% 1.46
Avoid SEA RHP on road 2.20 Jonathan Loaisiga NYY 50% 1.10

DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.60 through Sunday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa
Stack NYY RHP at home 1.89 Felix Hernandez SEA 112% 2.11
Stack WSN RHP at home 1.55 Andrew Cashner BAL 125% 1.94
Stack NYM RHP on road 1.70 Chad Bettis COL 109% 1.85
Stack BOS RHP on road 1.73 Lance Lynn MIN 106% 1.84
Stack KCR RHP at home 1.39 Austin Bibens-Dirkx TEX 128% 1.78
— — — — — — —
Avoid TBR RHP on road 1.43 Charlie Morton HOU 86% 1.23
Avoid BAL LHP on road 1.29 Gio Gonzalez WSN 91% 1.17
Avoid SEA RHP on road 1.67 Jonathan Loaisiga NYY 53% 0.89