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Post-NFL Preseason Week 1 Projections and Rankings Update, Team Notes

August 11, 2014 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Cleveland Browns QB Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel; Photos: Icon Sportswire

Rankings and projections updated, including a note on the Cleveland quarterback competition between Brian Hoyer (left) and this other guy (right). Photo: Icon Sportswire

NFL.com, NFL Network and everything officially associated with the shield can’t mention Johnny Manziel‘s name enough right now. I hate when they do that, when they pick a player and focus 200% attention on said hyped up player of the moment, virtually ignoring the rest of what is going on.

Week 1 of preseason games are in the books, and our fantasy football rankings and projections are due for an update. We’ll mention the Cleveland Browns starting QB competition, plus everything else that impacts our forecasts to get your ready for your upcoming fantasy drafts.

If you are looking for a custom cheatsheet and draft tracking tool, look no further than the tool that gave this website its name, Draft Buddy. For current Draft Buddy users, I will update a copy of Projection Pal with our projections to import into Buddy.

Atlanta Falcons

  • Rookie RB Devonta Freeman is getting plenty of reps with the first-team while Steven Jackson sits with a hamstring injury. If Freeman is a quick study on his pass protection, he’ll contribute even with a healthy SJax to try to keep the veteran healthy for the season.

Baltimore Ravens

  • Early reports indicate RB Bernard Pierce is doing well in Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking running scheme. Could he unseat Ray Rice if he performs well in a two-game audition while Rice is out with suspension? I’m going to leave that question hanging for now as food for thought.

Buffalo Bills

  • RB Bryce Brown received rave reviews from the head coach after a nice preseason game performance. He was just picked in an ongoing draft of mine in the 13th round, which seemed early since regardless of the reviews, Brown continues to be third in the pecking order behind C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. I drafted Spiller so I took notice. Then I realized I inadvertently already took two handcuffs of the guy who drafted Brown, so maybe the pick was intentionally early.
  • Is it WR Robert Woods or Mike Williams to play second fiddle to Sammy Watkins? Well, we thought it was Woods in a landslide back in June but now it appears a lot closer contest. Woods moves down our rankings and my suggestion is leave both for someone else to draft.

Carolina Panthers

  • QB Cam Newton missed the Panthers preseason opener to prevent risking damage to his surgically repaired ankle. His ankle injury doesn’t seem to be factoring into his current ADP. We obviously have Newton ranked considerably lower than that as a clear avoid pick in fantasy drafts.
  • RB Jonathan Stewart is missing preseason and doesn’t appear close to returning to game action. It seems no matter where we rank this guy it is too high. Now he’s in our “not ranked – on the radar” section. Just, avoid.

Chicago Bears

  • TE Martellus Bennett is away from the team currently after being indefinitely suspended and fined by the Bears. He body slammed rookie CB Kyle Fuller. Anger issues Martellus? I’m not dismissing the seriousness of the crime, but the length of suspension is catching my attention. It happened August 4th. Today is the 10th. Small red flag here. The only reason Bennett is (was) inside our Top 12 TE is because of the lack of receiving options on the Bears (especially with third WR Marquess Wilson out for a while), but he sure doesn’t excite me adding him to my fantasy team. Moving him down.

Cleveland Browns

  • I said at the top I would mention the QB battle between Brian Hoyer and that other guy. Truth be told, there isn’t much to tell that changes anything. Both performed decently in the preseason opener with no clear winner or loser. Hoyer is still the favorite to start the season on our board, but as I mentioned on ESPN 1450 in State College, PA radio last week (plug, plug), if and when Manziel starts, his value shoots up inside – perhaps well inside – the Top 20 at QB based on his ability to accumulate fantasy points with his legs. It would be a rollercoaster ride each week, but he could be worth a speculative add now as a third QB, even if just for his trade value in-season.

Dallas Cowboys

  • I mentioned Cole Beasley as a late round flier option in our last update. Dave tells me the Cowboys are committed to giving Gavin Escobar more time in 11 formations which will limit playing time for Beasley.

Denver Broncos

  • RB Montee Ball had his appendectomy surgery and no one seems too concerned he is going to miss starting Week 1 of the season. It isn’t the worst thing in the world for a running back to miss preseason games. We didn’t change his projections or ranking when this news first broke.
  • RB C.J. Anderson suffered a concussion in the Broncos preseason opener, helping Ronnie Hillman secure his grip as the primary backup. Hillman’s biggest problem is securing his grip on the football, and we’ll need to see more game action to believe he can do it.

Green Bay Packers

  • Packers running backs coach Sam Gash compared Eddie Lacy to Jamal Lewis and Curtis Martin, two former fantasy stud backs that Gash blocked for in his career. Lacy doesn’t have Gash blocking for him, but the more I read about Lacy and consider his situation and performance as a rookie, the closer I have him to Tier 1 than Tier 2 at RB. In fact, I’m making that change. I would take Lacy 5th overall in non-PPR and PPR leagues.
  • Rookie WR Jared Abbrederis tore his ACL and is out for the season. While he was down the depth chart, it is worth noting that fellow rookie Davante Adams has less competition for the fourth WR spot, from which one injury above him can pave the way to fantasy relevance on this team. See: Boykin, Jarrett (2013).

Houston Texans

  • Case Keenum has a small edge over Tom Savage for the backup QB job. Uh… this was a small news item prior to their preseason opener in which they lost 32-0 to the Arizona Cardinals. We don’t want to read too much into preseason, and neither Arian Foster or Andre Johnson played, but all three quarterbacks looked bad. I’m downgrading Foster and AJ in the rankings. They are already dinged and the early signs for this offense are not good.

Indianapolis Colts

  • This is more a from the gut prediction than anything, but I feel like a healthy Hakeem Nicks becomes the Colts top receiver. He’s a value buy where he’s going in drafts, while T.Y. Hilton is a sell at his current price, IMHO.

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • RB Toby Gerhart is missing preseason action with a hip injury. While, “it isn’t the worst thing in the world for a running back to miss preseason games”, it isn’t ideal for a player on a new team in his first starting gig. Regardless, anyone working off of our rankings before this news isn’t drafting Gerhart anyway.
  • WR Marqise Lee received some harsh criticism from head coach Gus Bradley following their preseason opener. Serious red flag or light a fire under the kid? I think more the latter, or it wouldn’t be done is such a public manner.

Kansas City Chiefs

  • It was a coming out party for Travis Kelce in the Chiefs first preseason game. Talent wasn’t in question, but whether he can he stay healthy, is. Right now he is, so I moved him into the TE rankings as an upside backup selection.

Miami Dolphins

  • RB Knowshon Moreno is still out recovering from knee surgery. To be honest, we probably have him a little too low in the rankings now, but it would be nice to see him back in action before giving the green light to draft this guy.

New England Patriots

  • It is a new week, and a new Patriots receiver is getting some positive press. This time it is free agent acquisition Brandon LaFell. LaFell is a big target for Tom Brady, he’s got that going for him. I’ll move him into our On the Radar section, but it would need to be a 32-team league before I envision drafting LaFell until such time we see and hear more good news out of Pats camp.

New Orleans Saints

  • Rookie WR Brandin Cooks is looking good per early reports. If he falls to reasonable levels, he is worth the risk-reward, even in re-draft leagues. He is going pretty high right now on average, but that ADP is sure to vary quite a bit from league to league. If the decision comes down to Cooks vs. a sure but average starter in a blah passing offense, then put some trust in Saints head coach Sean Payton.
  • At the point where Cooks is getting drafted, you want to put more emphasis on upside picks at the position. To that end, I shuffled a bunch of picks in Tier 8, moving some young upside choices ahead of guys who made the most of their situation last year – Jarrett Boykin, Marvin Jones, Riley Cooper – who I feel will have a tough time repeating their production this year.

New York Jets

  • RB Chris Johnson looked sluggish in the Jets first preseason game. Surprised? Don’t be. If you are looking for a RB who runs with conviction then you’re looking at the wrong guy. No one is expecting upside for a Top 10 finish at this point. He’s ranked where he’s ranked based on projected volume of carries. I’ve seen him drafted fairly high but I moved him to the bottom of Tier 4. By the way, he was the only healthy back on the Jets the other night. Chris Ivory left with a rib injury. Bilal Powell was already out with a pulled hamstring.

Oakland Raiders

  • Trusted fantasy football adviser, Dave Stringer, has told me for a little while we should swap Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew in the rankings. I’ve resisted so far, but MJD started the first preseason game and if both start the season healthy, MJD is more likely to stay that way and earn consistent carries. I guess I’m still enamored with McFadden’s speed and big play ability, but I made the switch.
  • TE David Ausberry requires knee surgery. We had him the projected starter, but not ranked, just on the radar. Looks like we’ll flip-flop that back to Mychal Rivera, and Nick Kasa is another name floating around.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • WR Riley Cooper missed the Eagles preseason opener with a foot injury but is expected back soon. We already have Cooper ranked low relative to his ADP. Good offense and opportunity but marginal talent.

San Diego Chargers

  • Although he has the talent, and he’s in a contract year, Ryan Mathews worries me given his injury history even though he stayed healthy last season. The Chargers ratcheted up his carries late last season with good success, but should know that can’t be the norm for him. I adjusted his projections down slightly (no rankings change), and moved Danny Woodhead up.
  • UDFA RB Branden Oliver looked impressive in the Chargers preseason opener. Who? Sorry, patting myself on the back a bit as I drafted Oliver as a college player in one league last season which earned a big round of “Who?”‘s at the time. Nothing to see here yet except in deep, deep dynasty leagues.

San Francisco 49ers

  • The way San Francisco is losing running backs, and with him entering his third year as a starter, I have a little more confidence in Colin Kaepernick and moved him up the rankings.
  • Michael Crabtree is missing time with a hamstring injury. Something to note when obnoxious fellow owner yells that across the room after you draft Crabtree. Tell him to shut his pie hole, the injury doesn’t appear serious.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

Houston Texans Fantasy Football Player Projections, Rankings and Commentary

July 14, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Houston Texans running back Arian Foster (23) carries the ball during the Kansas City Chiefs 17-16 victory over the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. October 20, 2013; Photographer: Jeff Moffett/Icon Sportswire

His fantasy rep took a pounding last year, but Arian Foster is in line for plenty of touches and he may sneak up on owners with a big bounce back season. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Player Tier · Rank Passing Rushing Receiving FPts
QB R. Fitzpatrick
7 · 32nd
225-380-2,650 12 TD 14 INT
35-110 0 TD
–
191.5
QB C. Keenum
NR
100-180-1,150 6 TD 6 INT
15-60 0 TD
–
87.5
QB T. Savage
NR – – –
0.0
RB A. Foster
2 · 10th –
260-1,125 8 TD
50-425 2 TD
215.0
RB A. Brown
8 · 52nd –
75-300 3 TD
20-150 0 TD
63.0
RB A. Blue
NR –
20-90 0 TD
0-00 0 TD
9.0
WR A. Johnson
3 · 16th – –
90-1,100 7 TD
152.0
WR D. Hopkins
7 · 37th – –
55-800 5 TD
110.0
WR D. Posey
NR – –
25-375 1 TD
43.5
WR K. Martin
NR – –
20-225 0 TD
22.5
TE R. Griffin
NR – –
15-150 0 TD
15.0
TE C. Fiedorowicz
NR – –
10-100 0 TD
10.0
TE G. Graham
NR – –
30-400 3 TD
58.0

Data as of July 11 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

A nine-year veteran, Fitzpatrick joins his fifth team this year, heading to Houston and at this point we can probably describe him as a survivor. And the Texans starting quarterback in 2014, according to head coach Bill O’Brien. That’s really only relevant if you are in a fantasy league that starts two quarterbacks or if you are high on Andre Johnson or DeAndre Hopkins since Fitzpatrick is probably preferable to Case Keenum and definitely preferable to rookie 4th round draft pick Tom Savage in terms of helping their fantasy value. We hold out little hope that Fitzpatrick will change his turnover prone, dink and dunk ways in 2014.

RB Arian Foster

After totaling a league high 1,114 touches from 2010 to 2012 seasons, Foster suffered through an injury marred 2013 season in Houston. A back injury caused him to miss eight games and he barely played in two others, finishing the season with 542 rushing yards, 183 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. While Foster’s fantasy rep took a pounding, a closer look reveals that he averaged 13.9 PPG in the six games that he was healthy, hitting double digit fantasy points four times. That’s RB1 status, folks, provided he can stay healthy. Word out of Houston is that Foster will open training camp with a clean bill of health. The Texans are expected to lean heavily on the run with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, so Foster should see plenty of touches in 2014. A bounce back season appears to be in order for Foster, one of the league’s most talented running backs when healthy. We like him as a mid to lower RB1 and advise his owners to grab Andre Brown with a late round pick.

RB Andre Brown

If only Andre Brown could stay healthy. During the past two years with the New York Giants, Brown chalked up 877 rushing yards, 189 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in 16 games but a pair of broken legs caused him to miss huge chunks of time in both seasons. With the Giants choosing to let Brown walk in free agency, the Texans scooped him up to replace Ben Tate as Arian Foster’s lead backup. A hard charging, one cut, downhill runner, Brown has limited upside if he were to sub in for Foster given his injury history, plodding style and lack of receiving ability. New Texans coach Bill O’Brien has been dropping plenty of hints that he will rely heavily on Foster this season meaning Brown isn’t a candidate to be a solid flex option unless he somehow becomes the team’s main option at the goal line. As a potential upside handcuff, we rate him as one of the league’s less appealing options.

WR Andre Johnson

With over 1,200 receiving yards in five of his last six seasons and four 100 reception seasons during that span, Johnson has been a consistent fantasy producer. However, there are storm clouds on the horizon given his age (33 on opening day), a potential holdout and the Texans quarterback situation, where Ryan Fitzpatrick will open the season under center. We think those concerns are a tad overblown. With major issues at quarterback last season, Johnson still pulled in 109 of his 181 targets for 1,407 yards and five touchdowns. Outside of DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans don’t possess any other wide receivers who are ready to emerge as potential starters. The only real issue with Johnson is the possible holdout but he has been a solid citizen during his 11-year career so we fully expect him to be ready to roll on opening day. Consider Johnson an upper tier WR2 for 2014 and one with the potential to finish as a mid-tier WR1.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Taken in the 1st round of the 2013 NFL Draft, Hopkins was handed a starting spot in what was expected to be a high performing Texans offense. The Texans offense failed to reach those heights with Hopkins suffering through a year that can only charitably be described as mildly inconsistent. Despite finishing the year with very respectable numbers (52 receptions for 802 yards and a pair of touchdowns), he simply had too many no-shows, failing to reach 10 receiving yards three times, 40 receiving yards six times and earning 34% of his fantasy points in just two games (the only two double digit fantasy points games of his season). More is expected of Hopkins in 2014, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and Andre Johnson threatening to hold out, his fantasy prognosis is difficult to decipher. On the one hand, an AJ holdout would lead to plenty of targets but we aren’t sold that Hopkins is a player that could remain productive with the extra defensive attention. If Fitzpatrick holds the job for the entire season and AJ doesn’t hold out, Hopkins has the potential to reach 1,000 receiving yards and 5-6 touchdowns, making him a low end WR3 or high end WR4 with upside.

WR Keshawn Martin

Two years into his career, Martin has done little to lock down a meaningful role with the Texans. The 2012 4th round pick has operated mainly out of the slot but has shown little playmaking ability and doesn’t catch a high percentage of his targets. With a career average of 10.6 yards per catch and a career completion rate of 47.1%, Martin hasn’t proven that he deserves a spot on the Texans roster let alone a major role in the team’s offense. We don’t expect that narrative to change much in 2014.

WR DeVier Posey

After having suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon during the 2012 NFL Playoffs, Posey wasn’t expected to contribute much for the Texans last season. However, he played reasonably well, returning to the line up in Week 3 and catching 15 of his 25 targets for 155 yards in a limited role. The 2012 3rd round pick possesses solid size and speed but is stuck behind Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins on the depth chart at wide receiver. Since the Texans aren’t expected to finish amongst the league’s leading offensive teams with Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the way at quarterback, there isn’t much point in having one of their backup wide receivers using up a roster spot on your fantasy squad.

TE Garrett Graham

It’s a three horse race for the Texans starting position at tight end this season due to the offseason departure of long time starter Owen Daniels. Graham figures to get first crack at the job given his experience and solid production as a backup over the past two seasons (77 receptions on 127 targets for 808 yards and eight touchdowns). While Graham should open the season as the starter, we fully expect the Texans to utilize all three of their tight ends, rendering this an unappealing fantasy situation and one you should probably avoid.

TE Ryan Griffin

With both Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham out of the line up at the end of last season, Griffin stepped into the starting line up for the final three games of the season and hauled in 14 of his 18 targets for 177 yards. With Daniels out of the picture, the 2nd year player out of Connecticut will battle Garrett Graham and rookie 3rd round pick C.J. Fiedorowicz for the starting position. However, unless Griffin emerges as the clear cut starter and main receiving option, we don’t like his fantasy prospects heading into 2014.

TE C.J. Fiedorowicz

Looking to replenish their depth chart at tight end following the offseason departure of Owen Daniels, the Texans acquired Fiedorowicz with the first pick in the 3rd round of this year’s rookie draft. At 6’6” and 265 pounds, he possesses outstanding size to go along with average speed making him a middling prospect in dynasty formats. With Garrett Graham and Ryan Griffin ahead of Fiedorowicz heading into training camp, he shouldn’t end up on rosters in redraft formats until he puts together a couple of solid games in the regular season.

Also see: Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans
 

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