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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Pena, Wigginton, Peralta, Beachy

July 1, 2011 By Rick Leave a Comment

Stock Up

Carlos Pena, 1B, CHC – Pena is the kind of player that will give you your money’s worth every time he swings. Unfortunately, he misses a lot more than most other players and his career .240 batting average is the kind of thing that scares a lot of fantasy owners away, despite the huge power. Right now is the time to add the big fella, as he has hit .265 with eight home runs and 14 RBI over the last two weeks. That kind of average is very palatable when you are considering the power surge. Ride his hot streak but be ready to cut bait as the big numbers tail off.

Ty Wigginton, 1B/2B/3B/OF, COL – Wigginton is eligible all over the diamond and has a nice power stroke. Over the last two weeks, he’s posted .298/7/12 with 10 runs scored. As long as the Rockies are giving him regular at-bats, he’ll be an asset to your team, but you definitely want to get in on this current run.

Jhonny Peralta, 3B/SS, DET – Peralta continues his unlikely hot hitting. Over the fortnight, he is mashing to a .396/4/13/8 tune. Few shortstops are performing at a very high level, so Peralta might be more than a short-term hot streak, he might just be your rest of the season solution. Grab him if he is sitting on your waiver wire.

J.J. Hardy, SS, BAL – Hardy has found his swing again and is rewarding his owners. He is hitting .340/5/10/10 over the last two weeks so enjoy the ride, just don’t expect it to last for a long time. Be ready to find a replacement when he falls back down to Earth.

Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS – Espinosa is another middle infielder who is on a hot streak. Right now, he is in the middle of a .294/4/11/7 run with three steals to boot. He’s a solid play if you are desperate.

Chris Getz, 2B, CWS – Yet another middle infielder who is exceeding expectations, Getz is doing most of his damage with his legs. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a .388/0/2/7/6 line and provides a lot of help in the steals category for those needing a few more. The average is also surging right now, just don’t expect any power.

Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK – While we are on the run of middle infielders, let’s stop and visit Rickie Weeks’ little brother. Jemile is a good average/speed guy, but will offer much less power than his big brother Rickie. Over the last two weeks, Jemile has posted a .292/0/4/7/5 line and will pile up the steals as long as Oakland keeps rolling him out at 2B each night. The A’s traded Mark Ellis to the Colorado Rockies, so it seems like their plan is to stick with Weeks.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL – Freeman has found his groove recently and his numbers are showing it. He posted .292/3/9/6 over the last two weeks and has even been moved to the heart of the Atlanta batting order. He’s a great long-term keeper, but grab him for his power surge right now.

Brandon Beachy, SP, ATL – Beachy is back from the injury that cost him six weeks of playing time. He’s back with a flourish, striking out 20 in the two appearances since his return while allowing only two runs over those 12 innings pitched. If he’s available, pick him up more for his ratios than for the strikeouts, which aren’t likely to continue at that rate.

 
Stock Down

Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS – Dunn is suffering his worst MLB season for no obvious reason. Over the last two weeks, he has managed two singles, a double, 16 strikeouts, and no other stats of use to your fantasy team. Is the change of leagues hurting his performance or maybe the designated hitter role? Whatever has turned him from a consistent slugger to someone playing himself out of the league, it is time to find another alternative. Dunn looks done.

Hunter Pence, OF, HOU – After Pence went on a 23 game hitting streak, the back problems flared up and have rendered him helpless. Since the hitting streak, Pence has gone 9-for-38 with only 3 RBI and 2 runs scored in nine games played. Sit him on your bench until he gets past this injury.

Joe Mauer, C, MIN – Mauer has been battling injuries all season and it looks like he will be hitting from the 1B and DH slots from here on out. Mauer is the best hitting catcher in baseball when healthy, but he isn’t that right now. If someone in your league is willing to pay close to full value on him, pull the trigger.

Jay Bruce, OF, CIN – Bruce is struggling in June after picking up NL Player of the Month honors in May. He’s scuffling right now, so sit him until he finds his form again.

Zack Greinke, SP, KC – Greinke was zooming along at 6-0 in his first seven starts since starting the season with a cracked rib injury. Then the last two weeks saw some awful numbers pop up to the tune of 1-2 with an 8.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Since his strikeouts are still there, don’t worry. In fact, this might be a good time to buy low.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Ludwick, Maybin, Pena, Collmenter

May 20, 2011 By Rick Leave a Comment

Stock Up

Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD – Ludwick put together a big week hitting .440 with three homers, 10 RBI and scoring 5 runs. That is quite a feat for a guy playing in an extreme pitchers park on an anemic offense. Don’t expect a repeat of his monstrous 2008 season, but a good season could be in the cards for Luddy.

Justin Turner, 2B, NYM – Turner is taking full advantage of the second base vacancy that was created by injuries and poor play. Over the last week, he has piled up .400/1/10/4 and is trying to make his case for the starting team. The Mets and Turner are hot right now and he could be a very useful middle infield piece for the time being.

Cameron Maybin, OF, SD – Maybin has been a highly regarded prospect for several years now and the luster is beginning to wear off as he has not lived up to his billing. Maybe a change to San Diego and the relaxing SoCal lifestyle has finally helped him find his place in baseball. He has put up .368/2/5/5 with a stolen base over the last week and seems to be the catalyst in the suddenly hot Padres offense.

Ronny Cedeno, SS, PIT – Cedeno has been losing some starts to Brandon Wood, but should find more starts with weeks like this one: .444/1/4/5. Cedeno has always had a little pop in his bat, but he usually struggles with batting average, meaning that this isn’t likely to last. But enjoy the ride while he’s providing you with quality numbers from the very thin shortstop position.

Brad Hawpe, 1B/OF, SD – Yet another Padre who is hot, Hawpe has crushed the ball to a .381/1/3/6 tune over the last week. This guy has always had the goods, but keeping it all together for lengths of time was always his problem. Enjoy it as he’ll probably add some homer power to these numbers.

Carlos Pena, 1B, CHC – Is that the same Carlos Pena who had great difficulty keeping his batting average above the Mendoza Line? Yes it is and he’s smoking the ball right now on the North Side with a .316/2/5/4. He’s always had great power, but ride him while the average is good.

Josh Collmenter, SP, ARI – Collmenter was the focus of a prospect report last winter and he seems to be living up to his billing. His delivery is tough for hitters as the ball seems to come out from right above his head. He’s 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP in two starts and seven relief appearances. As long as he keeps pitching like this, he’ll keep his rotation slot.

Ryan Vogelsong, SP, SF – Vogelsong has been a journeyman minor leaguer for quite a few years and San Francisco has found the right spot for him. He’s 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in four starts and two relief appearances. With question marks surrounding Barry Zito and Madison Bumgarner, Vogelsong should keep his spot in the rotation as long as he keeps pitching well.

Colby Lewis, SP, TEX – Lewis had a breakout season in 2010 after a journeyman’s career. He struggled in his first four starts going 1-3 with a 6.95 ERA and only 14 strikeouts, but he has really turned it around in the last four starts, going 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 24 strikeouts. Buy now and point out the .500 record and hope that his owner hasn’t noticed the reversal of fortunes.

 
Stock Down

Albert Pujols, 1B, STL – Pujols got a second game this season at 3B and it is very possible that he might just find three more this season to get to five (an eligibility qualifying mark in many leagues), but his bat has been awful in the last week (.250/0/1/1/1). It has more to do with the surrounding cast than a Pujols slump, as Colby Rasmus, David Freese, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman have all sustained injuries. Without any coverage, there’s no reason for pitchers to throw Phat Albert anything decent.

Evan Longoria, 3B, TB – Longoria is still not back to full speed yet after his oblique injury. He posted a .185/0/0/3 line, something we might expect from Eva Longoria, not Evan. As he regains his strength and stamina, Longo will be back to top form.

Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI – Howard is suffering from the same lack of help that Pujols is facing. Without Chase Utley, Domonic Brown and Jayson Werth, Howard doesn’t see too many worthwhile pitches. As the team gets healthy and the summer heats up in Citizens Band Box Park, Howard will post the numbers you’ve come to expect.

John Danks, SP, CHW – Danks hasn’t been miserable this season, he’s just been unlucky. At 0-6, the quick glance looks bad but his K/9 rate of 6.48 is slightly below is career rate of 6.94 but his batting average against is .274 compared with a career mark of .251 which is probably caused by a BABIP of .313 compared to his career average of .286. His walks are also up a little bit, so he may be causing some of his own damage. There’s nothing that says he should be 0-6, but there’s also no indications that he’ll turn things around anytime soon. He’s a great guy to buy low and stash, but he’s probably not ready to start for your team until he shows some serious upward movement in his game.

Ryan Franklin, RP, STL – If the fact that Franklin lost his closer role didn’t tell you he’s sucking this year, maybe his 12.46 ERA and 2.54 WHIP over the last two weeks will. If he’s still on your team, dump him now. The Cardinals have two legitimate closer options in Fernando Salas and Eduardo Sanchez to make sure that Franklin is nothing more than a setup man for the rest of his days in St. Louis.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Feeling Lucky? BABIP Stats for Hitters

February 16, 2011 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

It is difficult to find a fantasy baseball article these days that doesn’t mention BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. If you aren’t sure what BABIP is, there are a few resources which already give a great description and provide little need for me to recreate the wheel. Start with Everything you wanted to know about BABIP from Alex Remmington in his blog over at Yahoo! You can follow that up with the library at FanGraphs and even WikiPedia if you like.

In a nutshell, BABIP strips out home runs and strikeouts from batting average, to show what percentage of balls go for hits that stay in the field of play. The metric can be measured for hitters and pitchers. The point of this exercise is to show what players might have been lucky or unlucky with the result of the balls they put (hitters) or allowed (pitchers) to land in fair territory, inside the fence.

Since the two determining factors on whether a ball in play goes for a hit or not is (1) defense and (2) luck, two things the hitter or pitcher has little control over, then abnormally high or low BABIP may identify some players who are due for a correction from their prior results. Were they just unlucky and should do better going forward? Were they lucky posting that career batting average a year ago?

While pitchers tend to have an average BABIP between .290 and .300, hitters can influence their BABIP to a greater degree, to the point where comparison against their own career average BABIP may be more useful than comparison to a league average.

Okay, let’s move on to some stats. The more articles I read that mentioned BABIP, the more the thought finally triggered in my mind that, hey, we don’t have these stats on the website. I can certainly calculate them though with our handy player stats database.

Here are hitter BABIP stats from 2010, starting with the top 28 BABIP results, minimum 400 at-bats. The AVG is the player’s 2010 batting average.

+-----------------+------+-------+-------+
| Player          | AB   | AVG   | BABIP |
+-----------------+------+-------+-------+
| Austin Jackson  |  618 | 0.293 | 0.396 |
| Josh Hamilton   |  518 | 0.359 | 0.390 |
| Carlos Gonzalez |  587 | 0.336 | 0.384 |
| Joey Votto      |  547 | 0.324 | 0.361 |
| Omar Infante    |  471 | 0.321 | 0.355 |
| Colby Rasmus    |  464 | 0.276 | 0.354 |
| Justin Upton    |  495 | 0.273 | 0.354 |
| Ichiro Suzuki   |  680 | 0.315 | 0.353 |
| Jayson Werth    |  554 | 0.296 | 0.352 |
| Joe Mauer       |  510 | 0.327 | 0.348 |
| Shin-Soo Choo   |  550 | 0.300 | 0.347 |
| Starlin Castro  |  463 | 0.300 | 0.346 |
| Austin Kearns   |  403 | 0.263 | 0.344 |
| Carl Crawford   |  600 | 0.307 | 0.342 |
| Billy Butler    |  595 | 0.318 | 0.341 |
| Brett Gardner   |  477 | 0.277 | 0.340 |
| Neil Walker     |  426 | 0.296 | 0.340 |
| Jose Tabata     |  405 | 0.299 | 0.339 |
| Kelly Johnson   |  585 | 0.284 | 0.339 |
| Scott Podsednik |  539 | 0.297 | 0.338 |
| Miguel Cabrera  |  548 | 0.328 | 0.336 |
| Evan Longoria   |  574 | 0.294 | 0.336 |
| Marlon Byrd     |  580 | 0.293 | 0.335 |
| David Wright    |  587 | 0.283 | 0.335 |
| Jason Heyward   |  520 | 0.277 | 0.335 |
| Nick Swisher    |  566 | 0.288 | 0.335 |
| Martin Prado    |  599 | 0.307 | 0.335 |
| John Buck       |  409 | 0.281 | 0.335 |
+-----------------+------+-------+-------+

Here are the lowest 26 BABIP results from 2010, minimum 400 at-bats.

+---------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Player              | AB   | AVG   | BABIP |
+---------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Aaron Hill          |  528 | 0.205 | 0.196 |
| Carlos Pena         |  484 | 0.196 | 0.222 |
| Pedro Feliz         |  409 | 0.218 | 0.228 |
| Casey Kotchman      |  414 | 0.217 | 0.229 |
| Jose Bautista       |  569 | 0.260 | 0.233 |
| Carlos Lee          |  605 | 0.246 | 0.238 |
| Carlos Quentin      |  453 | 0.243 | 0.241 |
| Kurt Suzuki         |  495 | 0.242 | 0.245 |
| Aramis Ramirez      |  465 | 0.241 | 0.245 |
| Brendan Ryan        |  439 | 0.223 | 0.253 |
| Jose Lopez          |  593 | 0.239 | 0.254 |
| Jerry Hairston, Jr. |  430 | 0.244 | 0.255 |
| Juan Uribe          |  521 | 0.248 | 0.256 |
| Cesar Izturis       |  473 | 0.230 | 0.257 |
| Mark Reynolds       |  499 | 0.198 | 0.257 |
| Juan Rivera         |  416 | 0.252 | 0.261 |
| Alcides Escobar     |  506 | 0.235 | 0.264 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt |  556 | 0.259 | 0.267 |
| Mark Teixeira       |  601 | 0.256 | 0.268 |
| Alberto Callaspo    |  562 | 0.265 | 0.269 |
| Ty Wigginton        |  581 | 0.248 | 0.270 |
| Jeff Francoeur      |  454 | 0.249 | 0.270 |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff    |  551 | 0.247 | 0.270 |
| Vernon Wells        |  590 | 0.273 | 0.272 |
| Shane Victorino     |  587 | 0.259 | 0.273 |
| Ben Zobrist         |  541 | 0.238 | 0.273 |
+---------------------+------+-------+-------+

Here are the 29 biggest positive differences between 2010 BABIP and 2007-2009 BABIP, minimum 400 at-bats in 2010 and 800 at-bats in 2007-2009. Did these guys sleep with a shamrock under their pillow or carry a rabbit’s foot to the plate in 2010?

+-----------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+
| Player          | 10_AB | 10_BABIP | 3year_AB | 3yr_BABIP | Dif   |
+-----------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+
| Austin Kearns   |   403 |    0.344 |     1074 |     0.279 | 0.066 |
| John Buck       |   409 |    0.335 |      903 |     0.269 | 0.066 |
| Josh Hamilton   |   518 |    0.390 |     1258 |     0.325 | 0.065 |
| Paul Konerko    |   548 |    0.326 |     1533 |     0.265 | 0.061 |
| Nick Swisher    |   566 |    0.335 |     1534 |     0.275 | 0.060 |
| Rickie Weeks    |   651 |    0.332 |     1031 |     0.286 | 0.046 |
| Mark Ellis      |   436 |    0.321 |     1402 |     0.278 | 0.043 |
| Adrian Beltre   |   589 |    0.331 |     1601 |     0.290 | 0.041 |
| Dan Uggla       |   589 |    0.330 |     1727 |     0.289 | 0.041 |
| Adam Dunn       |   558 |    0.329 |     1585 |     0.296 | 0.033 |
| Ryan Zimmerman  |   525 |    0.334 |     1691 |     0.304 | 0.030 |
| Stephen Drew    |   565 |    0.321 |     1687 |     0.293 | 0.027 |
| Brandon Inge    |   514 |    0.305 |     1417 |     0.279 | 0.026 |
| Kelly Johnson   |   585 |    0.339 |     1371 |     0.314 | 0.025 |
| Evan Longoria   |   574 |    0.336 |     1032 |     0.312 | 0.024 |
| Jayson Werth    |   554 |    0.352 |     1244 |     0.328 | 0.024 |
| Billy Butler    |   595 |    0.341 |     1380 |     0.319 | 0.022 |
| Adrian Gonzalez |   591 |    0.322 |     1814 |     0.302 | 0.021 |
| Chris Young     |   584 |    0.296 |     1627 |     0.277 | 0.020 |
| Ryan Howard     |   550 |    0.332 |     1755 |     0.311 | 0.020 |
| Corey Hart      |   558 |    0.324 |     1536 |     0.305 | 0.019 |
| Luke Scott      |   447 |    0.304 |     1293 |     0.286 | 0.018 |
| Scott Podsednik |   539 |    0.338 |      913 |     0.320 | 0.017 |
| Jason Kendall   |   434 |    0.280 |     1434 |     0.265 | 0.016 |
| Robinson Cano   |   626 |    0.326 |     1851 |     0.312 | 0.014 |
| Freddy Sanchez  |   431 |    0.330 |     1628 |     0.316 | 0.014 |
| Andre Ethier    |   517 |    0.322 |     1568 |     0.308 | 0.014 |
| Justin Upton    |   495 |    0.354 |     1022 |     0.340 | 0.014 |
| David Ortiz     |   518 |    0.313 |     1506 |     0.299 | 0.014 |
+-----------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+

Here are the 25 biggest negative differences between 2010 BABIP and 2007-2009 BABIP, minimum 400 at-bats in 2010 and 800 at-bats in 2007-2009. Did these guys spill some salt or break a mirror heading into last season?

+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| Player            | 10_AB | 10_BABIP | 3year_AB | 3yr_BABIP | Dif    |
+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| Aaron Hill        |   528 |    0.196 |     1495 |     0.304 | -0.109 |
| Mark Reynolds     |   499 |    0.257 |     1483 |     0.343 | -0.086 |
| Matt Kemp         |   602 |    0.295 |     1504 |     0.364 | -0.069 |
| Aramis Ramirez    |   465 |    0.245 |     1366 |     0.313 | -0.068 |
| Carlos Pena       |   484 |    0.222 |     1451 |     0.283 | -0.061 |
| Casey Kotchman    |   414 |    0.229 |     1353 |     0.286 | -0.056 |
| Carlos Lee        |   605 |    0.238 |     1673 |     0.292 | -0.055 |
| Denard Span       |   629 |    0.294 |      925 |     0.348 | -0.054 |
| Mark Teixeira     |   601 |    0.268 |     1677 |     0.318 | -0.050 |
| Derek Jeter       |   663 |    0.307 |     1869 |     0.356 | -0.049 |
| Howie Kendrick    |   616 |    0.313 |     1052 |     0.358 | -0.045 |
| Kurt Suzuki       |   495 |    0.245 |     1313 |     0.290 | -0.045 |
| Jose Bautista     |   569 |    0.233 |     1238 |     0.278 | -0.045 |
| Chone Figgins     |   602 |    0.314 |     1510 |     0.359 | -0.045 |
| Skip Schumaker    |   476 |    0.294 |     1249 |     0.339 | -0.044 |
| Yunel Escobar     |   497 |    0.282 |     1361 |     0.326 | -0.044 |
| B.J. Upton        |   536 |    0.304 |     1565 |     0.345 | -0.041 |
| Curtis Granderson |   466 |    0.277 |     1796 |     0.317 | -0.040 |
| Alex Rodriguez    |   522 |    0.274 |     1537 |     0.313 | -0.039 |
| Jhonny Peralta    |   551 |    0.275 |     1761 |     0.315 | -0.039 |
| Pedro Feliz       |   409 |    0.228 |     1562 |     0.266 | -0.039 |
| Shane Victorino   |   587 |    0.273 |     1646 |     0.311 | -0.038 |
| Jeff Francoeur    |   454 |    0.270 |     1834 |     0.306 | -0.037 |
| Michael Young     |   656 |    0.311 |     1825 |     0.346 | -0.036 |
| Bobby Abreu       |   573 |    0.296 |     1777 |     0.331 | -0.035 |
+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+

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