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Preliminary 2016 Running Back Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 6, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Todd Gurley joins Le’Veon Bell at the top of our preliminary RB tiers before a drop-off into the second group of the best backs in fantasy football.

Following up our preliminary quarterback tiers, here are the preliminary running back redraft ranking tiers for the 2016 season.

Note the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other running backs in their own tier.

Expect detailed player projections and rankings, plus some fantasy football player commentary in the coming weeks. Comment below with your feedback.

Tier 1

Le’Veon Bell
Todd Gurley

Tier 2

Adrian Peterson
David Johnson
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte

Tier 3

Danny Woodhead
DeMarco Murray
Devonta Freeman
Jonathan Stewart
Lamar Miller

Tier 4

C.J. Anderson
Doug Martin
Eddie Lacy
Ezekiel Elliott ®
Jay Ajayi
LeSean McCoy

Tier 5

Ameer Abdullah
Carlos Hyde
Dion Lewis
Frank Gore
Mark Ingram
Melvin Gordon
T.J. Yeldon
Thomas Rawls

Tier 6

Chris Ivory
Duke Johnson
Giovani Bernard
Jeremy Hill
Jeremy Langford
Justin Forsett
Latavius Murray
Matt Jones
Ryan Mathews
Shaun Draughn

Tier 7

Bilal Powell
Charles Sims
Chris Johnson
Darren Sproles
DeAngelo Williams
Isaiah Crowell
Karlos Williams
LeGarrette Blount
Rashad Jennings
Shane Vereen
Spencer Ware

Tier 8

C.J. Spiller
Chris Thompson
Darren McFadden
Javorius Allen
Jerick McKinnon
Ronnie Hillman
Tevin Coleman
Theo Riddick

San Francisco 49ers Team Report

August 4, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Are San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick and new WR Torrey Smith a good fit? Will tutelage from Kurt Warner help? Does new OC Geep Chryst allow Kaep to run more? Lots of tough questions to forecast a make-or-break season for the San Fran QB.

QB Colin Kaepernick

At first glance, Kaepernick’s numbers from a year ago weren’t all that bad. He completed 60.5% of his passes. He had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 19 to 10. He threw for a career-high 3,369 yards. On the ground, he contributed a career-high 641 yards. However, after being drafted as a mid to lower tier QB1 in most leagues, he finished the season as the 16th ranked fantasy quarterback mainly because his passing touchdowns declined from 21 to 19 and his rushing touchdowns declined from four to one. 49ers observers will tell you that the team struggled to move the ball at times and Kaepernick was a big part of the problem. He struggles against better defenses, lacks accuracy and doesn’t always take what opposing defenses are giving him, hence an offseason spent under the tutelage of Kurt Warner. Will it help? We’re not so sure. Kaepernick failed to top 20 fantasy points in nine of 10 games from Week 5 to Week 15 and had less than 220 passing yards in 10 games. With a pair of aging receivers in Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis, Kaepernick’s best bet to regain QB1 status is with his legs, but will new offensive coordinator Geep Chryst allow him to run the ball more frequently? Perhaps but with a tough schedule on tap in 2015 we view him as a mid-tier QB2 with some upside.

RB Carlos Hyde

With Frank Gore having signed with Indianapolis in the offseason, Hyde will take over as the 49ers lead back in 2015. The 5’11”, 230 pound former 2nd round pick enjoyed a solid rookie season gaining 333 yards and four touchdowns on 83 carries while adding 12 receptions for 68 yards as a receiver. He enjoyed a stellar collegiate career at Ohio State and, at 5’11” and 230 pounds, is built to handle a workhorse role as a pro. Unfortunately for Hyde, his path to fantasy success is going to be a little tougher than it was for Gore during his last few years in San Francisco. With head coach and offensive guru Jim Harbaugh having left the team and an offensive line that lost a pair of Pro Bowl quality players in Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis, the 49ers could struggle on offense in 2015. With Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter backing up Hyde, he is in-line for a Gore-type workload in his first season as the team’s starter. While Hyde has breakout potential, we can’t endorse him as a RB1. More likely, Hyde will settle into low RB2 production unless the whole 49ers offense exceeds expectations.

RB Reggie Bush

At 30 years of age and coming off an injury plagued, disappointing season in Detroit, Bush joins the 49ers backfield where he is expected to work as a change of pace, pass receiving option behind second year player Carlos Hyde. While the expectation is that Bush won’t get much playing time, it is important to remember that this is a team that may struggle in 2015 and spend more time playing catch up than in previous years. In Detroit, Bush enjoyed a solid season in 2013 with over 1,500 total yards and seven touchdowns before seeing his production decline to 550 yards and two touchdowns last season as an ankle injury caused him to miss five games and limited his effectiveness in several others. While his days as a leading back and potential mid-tier RB2 are behind him, Bush could provide value in larger leagues and PPR formats as a player who will likely catch 50 passes in 2015. He rates as a mid-tier RB4 in standard leagues and an upper tier RB4 in PPR formats.

RB Kendall Hunter

Despite coming off an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of the 2014 season, Hunter was re-signed by the 49ers in the offseason and will compete with Reggie Bush and rookie 4th round pick Mike Davis to backup presumptive starter Carlos Hyde. While Hunter has been productive when healthy, averaging a solid 4.6 yards per carry on 262 career carries, he hasn’t emerged as a great pass catching option out of the backfield (just 27 career receptions) and it seems apparent the 49ers do not view him as feature back material, likely due to his size at 5’7” and 199 pounds. Since Hunter was taken in the 4th round of the 2011 draft, San Francisco has drafted LaMichael James (2nd round), Marcus Lattimore (4th round), Carlos Hyde (2nd round) and Mike Davis (4th round). And during the offseason they added Reggie Bush to back up Hyde. Hunter doesn’t have any fantasy value in 2015.

RB Mike Davis

Taken in the 4th round of this year’s draft, Davis joins a crowded 49ers backfield that will feature Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter in 2015. That doesn’t bode well for his fantasy prospects this season. However, the 5’9”, 223 pound South Carolina product has some value in dynasty formats since only Hyde seems like a surefire bet to return to the team in 2016.

WR Torrey Smith

After four solid, yet hardly spectacular years in Baltimore after being taken in the 1st round of the 2011 NFL Draft, Smith was signed to a five-year, $40-million in the offseason to join the 49ers. While Smith has blazing speed and has proven adept at finding the end zone with 30 touchdowns in his career, he has failed to develop into a solid all around wide receiver. Joining the 49ers, Smith leaves a solid deep ball thrower in Joe Flacco in order to catch passes from Colin Kaepernick, a player who has struggled with his accuracy throughout his career. In his final year in Baltimore, Smith finished as the 19th ranked wide receiver, catching 49 of his 92 targets for 767 yards (all career lows), but a career high 11 touchdowns. Since his touchdown production is all but guaranteed to decline as he moves to a less effective offense, Smith will need to improve as a short and intermediate option in the passing game to remain a lower tier WR2 for fantasy purposes. After four years in the league, we don’t see that happening. That makes Smith an upper tier WR4 with upside and one who will almost certainly struggle with consistency.

WR Anquan Boldin

After failing to top 1,000 receiving yards during his final three years in Baltimore, the fantasy community was ready to write Boldin off when he signed with the 49ers prior to the 2013 season. However, Boldin proved the naysayers wrong during his first year in San Francisco, catching 85 of his 129 targets (65.4% completion to target rate) for 1,179 yards and seven touchdowns as he finished the season as the 15th ranked fantasy wide receiver. Nonetheless, he was written off again prior to the 2014 season but posted nearly identical stats with 83 receptions for 1,062 yards and five touchdowns, finishing as the 22nd ranked wide receiver. At 34 years of age (35 in October), what is in store for Boldin in 2015? Well, Michael Crabtree and Stevie Johnson are no longer in San Francisco and while the 49ers signed Torrey Smith in free agency, the net result is positive for Boldin. Smith’s speed should take coverage away from Boldin and the team lacks a proven, consistent 3rd wide receiver with the enigmatic Jerome Simpson the frontrunner to fill that role. Nonetheless, Boldin’s advancing age and lack of speed lead us to believe that a reduction in his production is likely. While his touchdown count should remain steady, we don’t see him reaching 1,000 yards unless the 49ers spend plenty of time playing from behind (a not unrealistic possibility). He rates as a lower WR3 or upper tier WR4 with a slight boost in PPR formats.

WR Jerome Simpson

Entering his seventh year in the league, Simpson moves on to his third team having signed with the 49ers in the offseason. A one-trick pony capable of stretching defenses, Simpson caught 48 passes for 726 yards and a touchdown last year with the Vikings. In San Francisco, he will serve as a deep threat behind starters Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith provided he beats out Quinton Patton, Bruce Ellington and rookie DeAndre Smelter for that role. Since Simpson’s career highs are 50 receptions, 726 yards and four touchdowns and he has caught just 145 of 286 targets during his career, he isn’t a player that we can recommend adding to your fantasy roster.

WR Quinton Patton, WR Bruce Ellington and WR DeAndre Smelter

49ers general manager Trent Balke keeps using mid-round picks on wide receivers and keeps striking out. First it was Patton, taken in the 4th round pick in the 2013 draft. Then it was Bruce Ellington in the 4th round of the 2014 draft. And this year they drafted DeAndre Smelter in, you guessed it, the 4th round. Did we mention that they traded a conditional 4th round pick to acquire Steve Johnson (since departed) last year? And what did they do after deciding they weren’t going to re-sign Michael Crabtree? They signed Torrey Smith in free agency. That tells you all you need to know about the fantasy prospects of this trio. If you’re in a dynasty league and have a roster spot to fill, Smelter would be my pick. He is coming off an ACL injury and would have gone higher in the draft had he not suffered the injury.

TE Vernon Davis

On the plus side, Davis is entering the final year of his contract. Moving to the negatives, he is a 31-year old tight end coming off the worst year of his career who struggled with a lingering back injury for much of 2014. While Davis averaged just under 60 receptions, over 800 yards and 8.8 touchdowns during the five-year period from 2009-2013, he appeared to have lost a step last season and his role in the 49ers offense was clearly curtailed as Davis was targeted just 50 times in 13 games. With Davis entering the final year of his contract and in decline, we don’t see the 49ers increasing his role significantly in 2015, making him a low end TE2.

Also see: San Francisco 49ers IDP Team Report · St. Louis Rams Team Report

Fantasy Football Player Rankings Second Opinion

July 13, 2015 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Even matching his fantasy quarterback ranking from last season at QB16 is too high for San Francisco 49ers Colin Kaepernick, according to Tony’s second opinion of our rankings.

July means summer, barbeques, and enjoying time outside. It also means that NFL training camps start at the end of the month!

With the NFL season right around the corner, fantasy football drafts are already underway. Owners are barreling into an enormous amounts of fantasy football information, trying to make sure they are fully prepared for their draft and the upcoming season.

The most hotly debated topic amongst fantasy football players every year is, of course, player rankings. Fantasy football is a prediction game, and if we all thought the same about the players, it would be a pretty boring game!

Draft Buddy recently rolled out their fantasy football player rankings, prepared by Dave Stringer and Mike MacGregor, for the 2015 NFL season. My job is to analyze those rankings and identify some players that are I feel are currently ranked too high or too low by Dave and Mike.

Got an opinion? Great! Let us know what side of these player rankings you fall on in the comments below, or single out some other players whose rankings you strongly disagree with, and why.

Ranked Too High

Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins

Current Rank: QB6

Tannehill has been jumping up fantasy draft boards the last few weeks. He has the offensive weapons around him, but they are not considered studs like other players on teams with quarterbacks projected below Tannehill. I’d rather have Cam Newton, who has a more proven tight end in Greg Olsen and wide receiver in Kelvin Benjamin, or Matt Ryan who has Julio Jones and Roddy White, or Russell Wilson who is a threat with his legs and has Jimmy Graham. Tannehill finished 2014 as QB10, but all those quarterbacks mentioned earlier finished above Tannehill and should do so again in 2015.

Colin Kaepernick, 49ers

Current Rank: QB16

The San Francisco 49ers are going through a major overhaul in 2015. They lost Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, lost veteran starting running back Frank Gore, and their defense has taken a massive hit due to retirements and team changes. The 49ers are going to lean on Kaepernick, who frankly just is not a very good quarterback. In 2014 Kaep finished as QB16. Veteran receivers Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith will try to help Kaepernick, but there aren’t many other threats on this team. I’d rather have Jay Cutler who has Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte, or Teddy Bridgewater who has Adrian Peterson back and young fast receivers.

Carlos Hyde, 49ers

Current Rank: RB16

After an underwhelming rookie season, Hyde is in line to become the main workhorse for the San Francisco 49ers. The problem is, I do not think his talent and opportunity match the hype he is receiving. As I stated above with Kaepernick, the 49ers do not have any outstanding threats on offense, so defenses will load the box to stop the run and force Kaepernick to throw to his veteran receivers. Also, the 49ers brought in Reggie Bush to be the main pass catching back, which limits Hyde’s workload. Finally, the 49ers drafted a rookie, Mike Davis, who is capable to step in if Hyde struggles, putting Hyde on a short leash. I feel the bullish predictions attributed to Hyde are a bit overboard. I prefer Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller, rookie Melvin Gordon and Giovani Bernard, all ranked a tier below, over Hyde.

LeGarrette Blount, Patriots

Current Rank: RB25

Blount changed teams part of the way through the 2014 season and joined the New England Patriots. He was very productive when given the ball, however, with Bill Belichick calling the shots, the running back position will always be a random outcome for the running backs. With Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, Travaris Cadet, and James White all threatening to steal carries, Blount may have to split repetitions more than he’d like. I have a hard time putting so much faith into a New England running back. I prefer Chris Ivory, rookie T.J. Yeldon or Joseph Randle all above Blount.

Golden Tate, Lions

Current Rank: WR25

In 2014, Golden Tate found himself playing opposite the best wide receiver in the game, Calvin Johnson. Or at least, that was the plan going into last season. Through the first 9 games, Calvin Johnson was hobbled and was either limited during play or missed some games. During those games, Tate had 66 catches on 93 targets, 909 yards and three TDs. During the last 7 games when Johnson was healthy, Tate had 33 catches on 51 targets, 422 yards, and one TD. Johnson has had a full offseason to become healthy. Tate’s numbers should not be as bad as the second half of 2014, but will not be near his numbers during the first half of 2014. Proceed with caution when drafting Tate this year. I prefer Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall and Sammy Watkins over Tate.

[Editor’s note: We actually adjusted Tate’s earlier ranking down to 25th after Tony wrote this article, and now he is ranked below each of the receivers Tony mentions here, but instead of striking this section I decided to leave it and give credit where credit is due – we did have him too high.]

Donte Moncrief, Colts

Current Rank: WR60

When the Indianapolis Colts drafted rookie wide receiver Phillip Dorsett in the 2015 NFL Draft, Donte Moncrief’s value took a massive hit. I feel Dorsett will overtake Moncrief on the depth chart and be the Colts’ third wide receiver behind TY Hilton and Andre Johnson. It will be quite the battle during training camp between the two. Dorsett has better physical abilities and is a smaller receiver, which could work well in the slot. Regardless of who wins the camp battle, I see a 50/50 time split between the two receivers which hurts both their stats tremendously. I prefer Eddie Royal, Steve Johnson and Victor Cruz over Moncrief.

Martellus Bennett, Bears

Current Rank: TE5

Bennett was a big, popular target for quarterback Jay Cutler in 2014, so much that he vaulted himself into the top five TE last season. However, this offseason, Bennett has been pushing for a new contract from the Chicago Bears, so much that he kept himself out of voluntary OTAs. He did report to the mini camp, but there was still a push for a contract. The Bears have roughly eight tight ends on the team currently, which one might infer they are preparing for a holdout or time without Bennett since they don’t seem likely to offer him a new contract. If Bennett does hold out or is traded to a new team that will pay him, Bennett’s stats might take a hit. It’s worth monitoring in the next few weeks prior to drafts, but Bennett is very risky ranked so high for tight ends currently. I prefer Julius Thomas over Bennett.

Ranked Too Low

Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings

Current Rank: QB20

Bridgewater was arguably the best rookie quarterback in 2014. He will take another big step forward in 2015. With elite running back Adrian Peterson back, some pressure is taken off of Bridgewater, allowing him to focus on the receivers that now have some lighter coverage due to Peterson demanding an 8-man box. Bridgewater could end up as a legit QB1 this season finding himself among the Top 12 quarterbacks in the league. I prefer Bridgewater over Sam Bradford, Colin Kaepernick and Carson Palmer.

Eli Manning, Giants

Current Rank: QB11

Manning must have loved rookie Odell Beckham Jr. finally making his way onto the field because Beckham provided a big, fast, physical receiving option for Manning that was lost when Victor Cruz went out with season ending tendon tear in his knee. With the addition of Shane Vereen at running back and Cruz likely returning from injury, Manning will be passing a lot more in 2015. Manning finished as QB8 in 2014 and should find himself right there again in 2015. With an improved defense, watch out for the Giants to make a deep run this year. I prefer Manning over Ryan Tannehill and Tom Brady, even if Brady’s suspension is cut in half.

Chris Ivory, Jets

Current Rank: RB27

Ivory is a volume running back meaning he receives the majority of the teams rushing attempts. Even with receiving only 56% of the share of the rush attempts last season, Ivory was able to finish as the RB19. Ivory remains the best running back on the New York Jets, even with the additions of Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy. With Brandon Marshall now in town to help spread the defense out, Ivory should find more holes in defenses. I prefer Ivory over Isaiah Crowell and LeGarrette Blount.

Ryan Mathews, Eagles

Current Rank: RB42

After staying healthy for all 16 games in 2013, Mathews suffered an MCL sprain in Week 2 in 2014. He pushed his way through the injury to only suffer an ankle injury late in the season. A total of 6 games was not in the plan for Mathews in 2014, who is a very good runner when healthy. He now is backup to the best running back in 2014, DeMarco Murray, both of which have relocated to the Philadelphia Eagles. With Murray having logged a lot of miles in 2014, I expect head coach Chip Kelly to lean heavily on the run and have a balanced attack of Murray and Mathews. If I had to guess, I see a 65/35 workload split, which is more than what Mathews is projected now. The Eagles had the best graded offensive line blocking in 2014, even above the phenomenal Dallas Cowboys, who were second ranked. If Mathews can stay healthy, he could a great flex/RB2 option for fantasy leagues. I prefer Mathews over Bishop Sankey, Charles Sims and Ameer Abdullah.

Martavis Bryant, Steelers

Current Rank: WR29

I am all-in on Bryant this year. He only played 10 games in 2014 but finished with 26 receptions for 549 yards for an average of 21.1 yards per reception, which was the highest for a wide receiver scoring over 100 fantasy points for the season. With QB Ben Roethlisberger still able to sling the ball and playing opposite the most consistent wide receiver in the game in Antonio Brown, Bryant should excel into legit WR2 numbers this season. Also, rumor has it that Bryant trained in MMA this offseason to help improve his handwork for maneuvering around defenders. Bryant is taking his career seriously and as a fantasy player, I want all the Bryant shares I can get. I prefer Bryant over Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin.

Devin Funchess, Panthers

Current Rank: WR66

In my opinion, Funchess is the most underrated player of the 2015 rookie wide receivers, strongly based on the team/environment he was drafted to. He is now teammates with stud quarterback Cam Newton, sophomore receiver Kelvin Benjamin and veteran tight end Greg Olsen. Funchess provides the Panthers with another tall (6’5”) option at wide receiver opposite Benjamin. If Funchess can grasp this offense quickly (and I believe he can), he has a chance to become Newton’s favorite red zone target. I prefer Funchess over a host of players, including Malcom Floyd, Torrey Smith and Terrance Williams.

Mychal Rivera, Raiders

Current Rank: TE32

The Oakland Raiders have made all the right moves the past two years to help push their team in the right direction. They have sophomore quarterback Derek Carr who showed promise in 2014 and the best rookie wide receiver in Amari Cooper. They also have a young bruising running back Latavius Murray, but also brought in Roy Helu (sleeper alert) to help with the passing downs. Tight end Rivera received 100 targets in 2014, which was the seventh most among tight ends where he finished as a modest TE17. He should continue to be a target hog in Oakland as rookie tight end Clive Walford learns the NFL game. Rookie tight ends rarely pan out their first year. Assuming he improves his catching abilities, Rivera could be a draft day sleeper for a team waiting on tight ends. I prefer Rivera over Jared Cook, Tyler Eifert and Richard Rodgers.