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Week 3 Buy Low, Sell High

September 24, 2009 By Dave 1 Comment

Week 2 of the fantasy season has come to a close and there are likely numerous 0-2 teams whose owners are wondering what exactly happened at your league’s draft or auction. Although they aren’t likely ripe for the picking just yet, there’s always a chance they are ready to pull the trigger and give up on a player or players they were high on.

With a number of high profile players struggling to get fantasy points due mainly to poor schedules, it’s time to get aggressive on the trade front. As my gramma used to say, “if you snooze, you lose.”

Sell High

Cedric Benson, Bengals – Benson is here reluctantly and let me explain why. You likely got him cheaply in your draft or auction, he’s coming off two solid games and there are a number of disappointing backs whose owners would love to get some RB depth. The downside is that the Bengals will face the Ravens and Steelers twice and the Vikings once over the remainder of their schedule and last year they were not able to run against solid run defenses. Maybe that’s changed, maybe not. Benson’s likely your third back so check out when you need him. If those matchups aren’t favourable, move him now before his week 3 matchup against the Steelers.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins – Hey, Brown is coming off a 2 TD, 136 yard performance – what’s not to like? Well, Ricky Williams showed Monday night why the platoon system in Miami isn’t going away any time soon. He’s too good to sit on the bench. The Dolphins run plenty so Brown will be useful against bad or mediocre run defenses but will likely have a number of 40-50 yard, 0 TD performances given their schedule. He’s worth hanging on to this week since they face a severely run challenged Charger defense. After that, it might be time to unload him.

Tim Hightower, Cardinals – Hightower is coming off two nice games. He benefitted in week 1 because the Chargers were hurting at wide receiver and playing from behind, hence his 121 yards receiving. In week 2, they got ahead early and ran often plus backup Chris Wells fumbled twice, hence 72 yards and a TD on the ground for Hightower. The schedule is soft with the Colts, Texans and Seahawks up next so his value could be up. Unfortunately, that could prove fatal if Wells moves ahead of Hightower on the depth chart during that time.

Cadillac Williams, Bucs – Williams is clearly a great story and his fantasy owners definitely got him on their rosters for ten cents on the dollar. However, he struggled in week 2 against a Bills run defense without Paul Posluszny at middle linebacker. His fantasy stats were saved by 56 yards and a TD through the air but that won’t happen many weeks. If Caddy is your RB4 and a team wants him as their RB3 and is willing to pay up, kiss him goodbye.

Trent Edwards, Bills – After two weeks, Edwards is the 8th ranked QB for fantasy purposes. However he has put up decent numbers against a Pats defense that struggled week 1 and a Bucs defense that might struggle all year. Bottom line is that he’s known as Mr. Checkdown for a reason and the weather in Buffalo isn’t exactly balmy in November and December. If someone is buying, you should be selling.

Buy Low

Matt Forte, Bears – Forte will likely never be considered a top five back in terms of talent but he is good enough to succeed in the NFL. He had an impressive rookie season but has struggled during the first two weeks of the season. However, Forte is ready to come out of his slumber with the Seahawks, Lions, Browns, Bengals and Cardinals on the schedule during the Bears next six games. Basically, it’s buy now on Forte before his stock begins to rise. It’s worth noting the Bears face the Ravens and Vikings in weeks 15 and 16.

Steve Slaton, Titans – Slaton’s poor start is even more understandable than Forte’s given he has had to face the Jets and Titans. However, head coach Gary Kubiak called him out this week, hinting the team was disappointed not to have signed Cedric Benson in the offseason. Ouch. With that extra piece of motivation and the Jags, Raiders, Cards and Bengals up next, Slaton should get it going. Week 14-16 matchups against the Seahawks, Rams and Dolphins enhance his attractiveness.

Brandon Jacobs, Giants – 121 total yards and 0 TD in two weeks isn’t what Jacobs owners envisioned. With the Giants surprisingly effective in the passing game and struggling on the ground, Jacbobs owners have to be concerned about the effectiveness of the team’s offensive line and the coming of age passing game. It says here that these are aberrations and the running game will click into high gear for the next several weeks with the Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders, Saints and Cards next on tap. Get aggressive on this one.

Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, Broncos – Marshall occupied this slot last week and this week he’s joined by his running mate in Denver. Both have been major fantasy disappointments but are too talented not to get it going. Marshall obviously carries some additional risk (editorial restraints restrict from listing all of his issues) but there’s a reason he caught 206 passes over the last two years. If you think Marshall and Royal are too good to be in a rotation with Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney (and you should), then take a look at these two guys.

Carson Palmer, Bengals – With four picks in two games, the rust is clearly showing. However, the Bengals go four deep at wide receiver and Palmer is a big time talent. With Benson running well, the team’s offense could surprise this year provided the offensive line holds up its end of the bargain (no guarantee, mind you). If Palmer struggles this week against the Steelers, see what it would take to get him.

Fred Jackson, Bills – This one is for flex leagues only. He’s not here for poor performance but if Jackson’s owner is fixated on the fact Marshawn Lynch returns in week 4, then grab him. After two weeks, he has earned additional playing time when Lynch returns and there is no reason for Bills coaches to rush Lynch into the mix given Jackson’s outstanding performance. More likely, they will ease Lynch into the game plan, making Jackson pretty attractive over the next few weeks.

Donnie Avery, Rams – This isn’t a ringing endorsement for Avery. He’s been horrible over two weeks but he is the team’s most talented wide receiver. Sorry folks, there’s a reason the Falcons gave up on Laurent Robinson although he has looked good. Odds are decent that he’s available on the waiver wire in some leagues or viewed as a WR5 on many rosters. He’s worth taking a shot on if you can get him cheap.

Hold Tight

Willis McGahee, Ravens – Generally drafted as a RB3 or RB4, McGahee is looking like gold after two weeks. We had him as a sell high last week but he ran well this week and looked better than Ray Rice did. Plus, he’s been getting the goal line work.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Week 1 Moving Up, Moving Down

September 15, 2009 By Dave 1 Comment

What a week to kick off the 2009 NFL season. Stud performances headlined by Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson, dud performances, key injuries, a Denver miracle in Cincinnati, a Buffalo collapse and finally, the Raiders looking respectable. For fantasy football purposes, here are the players moving up, moving down and ones that surprised, but lets keep our expectations in check.

Moving Up

  • Mike Bell, Saints – No touchdowns but a 143 yard performance in week one clearly establish that Bell is, at a minimum, the handcuff to Pierre Thomas. Plus, reports out of New Orleans suggest Thomas will have to earn his job back.
  • Thomas Jones, Jets – Jones didn’t look too promising in the pre-season courtesy of a rookie QB and no proven number two receivers. However, he posted 107 yards and 2 TD on the ground against the Texans.
  • Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward, Bucs – The Bucs running back situation looks settled. Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward will provide the 1-2 punch and split the goal line work.
  • Cedric Benson, Bengals – The guy everybody loves to hate put up 108 total yards and a TD and ran hard. If there’s a buy low candidate, Benson is likely it. There is a mounting evidence that he has become at least a servicable NFL running back.
  • Nate Burleson, Seahawks – With seven receptions for 74 yards and a TD, Burleson proved he has completely healed from a torn ACL suffered in week 1 of last season.
  • Mario Manningham, Giants – Three receptions for 58 yards, including a 30 yard TD is a nice start to the season. With rookie Hakeem Nicks out at least 2-3 weeks and Domenik Hixon not producing, Manningham has a chance to carve out a larger role in the Giants offense.
  • Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, Colts – Anthony Gonzalez is out betweeen 2-6 weeks with a strained knee and perhaps for the season if he has a torn ACL. Collie and Garcon assume the 2-3 spots in the wide receiver rotation and it’s doubtful Reggie Wayne can go off for 10 receptions, 162 yards and a TD every week.
  • Mark Sanchez, Jets – Rookie jitters? Forget about it. 272 yards, a TD and a pick in his first game looks very promising.
  • Joe Flacco, Ravens – Established a career high with 307 yards plus a TD, indicating that the second year playcaller has earned the trust of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron.
  • Patrick Crayton, Cowboys – Crayton produces when he’s thrown to as indicated by his 135 yard, 1 TD performance. With Sam Hurd and Miles Austin not pushing for playing time, Crayton looks like excellent value.
  • Chansi Stuckey and Dustin Keller, Jets – With Sanchez playing well Stuckey and Keller each had solid games with Stuckey notching 64 yards and a TD and Keller totalling 94 yards.
  • Ben Watson, Patriots – Joey Galloway didn’t get Tom Brady‘s attention at all in week 1. Maybe this is the year Watson finally gets consistent targets.
  • Todd Heap, Ravens – It was the Chiefs but expectations were so low that you have to be impressed by his 5 reception, 74 yard plus a TD performance.
  • Mark Clayton, Ravens – Similar sentiments here with the talented but injury prone Clayton putting up 5 receptions for 77 yards and a TD despite not playing a single down in the pre-season because of a hamstring injury.
  • Earl Bennett, Bears – Seven receptions for 66 yards and it seemed like QB Jay Cutler was tossing it his way all night.
  • Andre Caldwell, Bengals – Laveranues Coles and Chris Henry had a catch each, while Caldwell hauled in 6 for 54 yards. Could be a solid option in PPR leagues.
  • Isaac Bruce, 49ers – Keep hearing about the team’s other receivers but Bruce put up 74 yards including a 50 yard catch.

Moving Down

  • Jake Delhomme, Panthers – You saw the highlights (lowlights). He has committed 11 turnovers in his last two games and might find himself on the bench unless he improves drastically in week 2 against the Falcons in Atlanta. Think the Panthers are regretting giving him $20-million guaranteed during the offseason?
  • Donovan McNabb, Eagles – Team figures to have a top five offense this season but McNabb won’t be leading it for a while courtesy of a cracked rib. He’s out at least a week but likely longer and you have to wonder how effective a QB can be while playing with this type of injury.
  • Ronnie Brown, Dolphins – It’s not that Brown looked particularly bad. It’s just that the offensive line did plus Brown had only 13 touches compared to 9 for Ricky Williams.
  • Earnest Graham, Bucs – One carry for 1 yard. It looks like he doesn’t have a role in Tampa Bay.
  • Sammy Morris, Patriots – No carries and apparently behind Laurence Maroney on the depth chart.
  • Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon, Giants – The Giants are saying Nicks is out 2-3 weeks with a foot sprain but he was on crutches after the game. Sounds like the team is a little overoptimistic on his recovery. Hixon saw a reduced role, perhaps confirming that the team doesn’t see as much upside in him as with the team’s younger receivers.
  • Brandon Marshall, Broncos – Maybe Kyle Orton is a huge downgrade from Cutler after all.
  • Braylon Edwards, Browns – One catch, 12 yards. More of the same from the enigmatic Edwards.
  • Donnie Avery, Rams – Let’s see, the Rams were shutout and managed just 13 first downs and 247 yards total offense against a suspect Seahawks D that was without Marcus Trufant and lost Leroy Hill and Lofa Tatupu to injury. Not pretty.
  • Jay Cutler, Bears – Hopefully it was just week 1 jitters. Even still, his performance in Green Bay was ugly with a capital “U”.
  • Greg Olsen, Bears – Seemed to disappear in week 1, something that happened all too often in 2008.
  • Deion Branch, Seahawks – Knee troubles already to go along with a bad hamstring resulted in him not suiting up on Sunday. With rookie 3rd round pick Deon Butler looking good, Branch isn’t worth owning in fantasy leagues.
  • Danny Ware, Giants – One play, one dislocated elbow. Out a minimum of two weeks, maybe more.
  • Jason Hill, 49ers – Despite Brandon Jones being out with and injury and 1st round pick Michael Crabtree not having signed, Hill was still inactive on game day. He’s buried on the depth chart and not worth holding on to.

Not Excited Yet

  • Julius Jones, John Carlson and Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – It was the Rams, folks, and frankly, that was about as sad as a 279 yards, 3 TD performance as you will ever see from a QB. Against a real NFL defense, Hasselbeck would have looked very poor on this day.
  • Willis McGahee, Ravens – He got the goal line work and 2 TD (one receiving) but the Ravens won’t get to play the Chiefs every week.
  • Tim Hightower, Cardinals – Guessing that he’s not going to catch 12 balls for 121 yards every week. Just a hunch, though.
  • Devin Hester, Bears – Nice game in week 1 with four catches for 90 yards, including a 36 yard TD and an impressive catch near the sideline. However, the touchdown was the result of poor safety play and Bennett seems to be Cutler’s top target.
  • Roy Williams, Cowboys – 86 yards and a TD came on only 3 catches but a solid signal nonetheless.
  • Jeremy Shockey and Devery Henderson, Saints – Nice performances but it came against the Lions, who, as a reminder, were 0-16 in 2008. First TD for Shockey since week 10… of the 2007 season. Ouch.
  • Jerheme Urban, Cardinals – Nice week 1 performance with 5 catches for 74 yards but that came with Steve Breaston out and Anquan Boldin playing banged up.
  • Robert Royal, Browns – He caught a garbage time 26 yard TD pass. How nice.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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