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Houston Texans Team Report

July 21, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Houston Texans RB Arian Foster has proven capable of delivering big plays and of handling a workhorse role. Of course, the caveat there is when he is healthy.

Houston Texans RB Arian Foster has proven capable of delivering big plays and of handling a workhorse role. Of course, the caveat there is when he is healthy.

QB Ryan Mallett

Acquired from the New England Patriots during the 2014 offseason, Mallett spent most of last season buried on the depth chart behind journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Given an opportunity to start near the end of the season, he played well in one start before suffering a torn pectoral muscle in his next game which landed him on injured reserve. While Fitzpatrick was traded in the offseason, Brian Hoyer was signed in free agency and he will battle Mallett for the starter’s spot. While Hoyer’s experience gives him a slight edge, look for Mallett to win the job based on his higher upside and stronger arm. However, even if he becomes the starter, look for the Texans head coach Bill O’Brien to replicate his winning formula from 2014 which consisted of a strong running attack and solid defense. Mallett should be waiver wire material in redraft formats.

QB Brian Hoyer

Hoyer’s career prospects appeared to be on the rise during the first half of the Cleveland Browns season last year as he guided the team to a 6-3 record to open the year. From that, his performance declined badly as he struggled over his final five games, throwing just two touchdowns with nine interceptions and winning just one game. Benched for Johnny Manziel, Hoyer wasn’t re-signed during the offseason by Cleveland and will spend 2015 in Houston. While Hoyer has more experience for the starting position with the Texans than his competition in Ryan Mallett, it is difficult to predict him winning the job given his lack of upside and poor finish to the 2014 season.

RB Arian Foster

When healthy, Foster rates amongst the top running backs in the league both in real world and fantasy football terms. Equally adept as a runner and a receiver, Foster has proven capable of delivering big plays and of handling a workhorse role. Of course, the caveat there is when he is healthy. He missed eight games during the 2013 season as well as three games last year. Despite the missed time, he was one of fantasy’s most valuable running backs last season totaling 1,246 rushing yards, 327 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. With head coach Bill O’Brien having stated that the Texans will once again lean heavily on Foster in 2015, the only issue with adding him to your fantasy roster is his injury history. At 29 years of age, Foster is worth the risk as a mid to lower tier RB1 due to his workhorse role as a runner/receiver in Houston’s offense.

RB Alfred Blue

Taken in the 6th round of last year’s NFL Draft, Blue emerged as Arian Foster’s main backup in his rookie season, finishing the year with 528 rushing yards, a pair of touchdowns to go along with 15 receptions for 113 yards and another score. Filling in for an injured Foster, the 6’2”, 222 pound Blue played well in games against the Giants (88 total yards) and Browns (156 total yards) but struggled badly against a strong Bengals run defense, gaining just 46 yards on 16 carries. A middling talent, Blue averaged just 3.1 yards per carry which would generally relegate him to low end handcuff status. However, Arian Foster has missed 11 games over the past two seasons and has played in 16 games just twice during his six year career. Did we mention the Texans run the ball a lot? Blue rates as a must have handcuff for Foster owners but we have a hard time rating him as being worthy of a late round flyer if you didn’t draft Foster.

RB Chris Polk

Released by the Eagles in the offseason, Polk joins a crowded running back depth chart in Houston where he hopes to emerge as Arian Foster’s main backup. To do so, he will have to unseat second year player Alfred Blue who is coming off a decent but hardly spectacular rookie season. Polk earned a role at midseason last year working as a short yardage specialist, finishing the season with 172 yards and four touchdowns in eight games. With a nose for the end zone (seven career touchdowns in 14 games over two years), Polk would rate as a worthy handcuff to Foster owners provided he wins that role in the preseason.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

What to make of Hopkins fantasy prospects in 2015? Well, the 2013 1st round pick supplanted future Hall of Famer Andre Johnson as the Texans top wide receiver last season and his emergence resulted in Johnson requesting his release given his expected reduced role in Houston’s offense had he stuck around. In his second season in the league, Hopkins caught an impressive 76 of his 127 targets for 1,210 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 15.9 yards per reception, topping 15 yards-per-reception for the 2nd consecutive year. An emerging talent, the only question marks with Hopkins are whether he is a true number one receiver, capable of maintaining his production with more attention from opposing defenses, along with the Texans subpar quarterback depth chart. Well, the team’s quarterback shouldn’t be much worse (or better) than a year ago and we view Hopkins as having more than enough talent as a team’s leading wide receiver. He rates as an upper tier WR2, albeit one who brings some inconsistency. He had eight games last year with eight or fewer fantasy points.

WR Cecil Shorts

After a solid coming out party in 2012 when Shorts caught 55 passes for 979 yards and seven touchdowns, he has struggled over the past two seasons with injuries, inconsistency and subpar quarterback play as contributing factors in his declining production. With Jacksonville choosing to go with younger players at the wide receiver position, Shorts was left to sign with the Texans this offseason where he will battle Nate Washington and rookie 3rd round pick Jaelen Strong for playing time. With Shorts having caught barely more than half of his career targets (176 of 350) and his yards-per-reception having declined from 17.8 to 11.8 to 10.5, we aren’t confident that a career resurgence is in store for him in Houston, especially given the team’s issues at quarterback. Even if Shorts emerges as the starter opposite DeAndre Hopkins and given the team’s lack of a proven receiving options at tight end, we still rate him as little more than a WR5.

WR Nate Washington

Entering his 10th year in the league, Washington joins the Texans in 2015 after spending the last six years with the divisional rival Tennessee Titans. After topping 1,000 receiving yards for the 1st time in his career in 2011, over the past three years Washington has reverted to his main role for most of his career, that of a deep threat who occasionally pulls off a big week. With a reduced role last season in Tennessee, he managed just 40 receptions (his lowest total since 2008), 72 targets (lowest since 2007) and two touchdowns (the lowest total of his career). In Houston, Washington will battle fellow free agent signee Cecil Shorts and rookie 3rd round pick Jaelen Strong for a spot in the starting lineup. While Shorts is the favorite to win that role, Washington should emerge as a solid deep threat given his career average of 15.3 yards per reception. With Shorts’ injury history and Strong’s lack of experience, Washington should once again reel off a handful of strong performances. He rates as a potential waiver claim should injuries strike Shorts or DeAndre Hopkins.

WR Jaelen Strong

With the departure of Andre Johnson, the Texans spent the offseason replenishing their depth chart at wide receiver. Part of that equation was drafting Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong in the 3rd round. At 6’4” and 212 pounds, Strong has the size to emerge as a solid blocker in the Texans run heavy offense. However, he lacks top end speed and faces competition from veterans Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington for the starting position opposite DeAndre Hopkins. While we don’t rate Strong as being worthy of a roster spot in redraft formats, he does rate as a mid-tier prospect in dynasty formats and a player that could emerge as a starter at some point during 2015.

TE Garrett Graham

After posting career highs across the board in 2013 with 89 targets, 49 receptions, 545 yards and five touchdowns, there was some optimism that Graham would emerge as a low end TE1 last season. However, with the tight ends in new head coach Bill O’Brien’s offense not being heavily utilized in the passing game, and Graham suffering a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss five games, he managed just 18 receptions for 197 yards and a single touchdown. With 2014 3rd round pick C.J. Fiedorowicz nipping at his heels and the Texans going with a tight end unfriendly offensive game plan, Graham shouldn’t be on the fantasy radar until he strings together a few solid performances.

TE C.J. Fiedorowicz

The Texans spent a 3rd round pick to acquire Fiedorowicz in last year’s draft and watched him languish on the bench in his rookie season. Used primarily as a blocker, Fiedorowicz was targeted just seven times but possesses the most upside of the Texans tight ends at 6’6” and 265 pound with decent speed. Due to the Texans lack of size at the wide receiver position, Fiedorowicz could emerge as a weapon in the red zone and that is likely his avenue to being fantasy relevant in 2015. He rates as a waiver wire addition in redraft formats and as a low end dynasty prospect.

Also see: Houston Texans IDP Team Report · Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC South

June 5, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Can Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blake Bortles take a big step forward in Year 2 of his NFL career? The Jags appear to be putting the right pieces in place to help him succeed.

Can Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blake Bortles take a big step forward in Year 2 of his NFL career? The Jags appear to be putting the right pieces in place to help him succeed.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Houston Texans

  • Don’t you hate projecting quarterback performance when you are virtually certain the expected starting QB for Week 1 is not going to be the same starting QB for Week 17? (Or if he is there will still be 2-3 switches in between.) The Texans are particularly bad this year. And I like Brian Hoyer as a player. Appeared to be a great leader and teammate with the Cleveland Browns. Hard to imagine Ryan Mallett not getting a chance to show his stuff at some point.
  • Dave pointed out in his early rankings series that Foster had the second most fantasy points per game last season. That is great, and worthy of a high draft pick, but two ways to look at his career in deciding to draft him this season. One, he’s missed time 3 of the past 4 seasons. Two, he’s played 13 or more games 3 of the past 4 seasons. This is one where I’d rank him a little lower than his projections, but don’t discount him too much.
  • Andre Johnson is gone to the Colts, leaving DeAndre Hopkins the heir apparent. He can fill those shoes. Looking at a 90-1,275-6 season on 144 targets, good for Top 12 in PPR. Uncertain QB situation is still okay here given they are veterans, and Cecil Shorts and a rookie won’t command nearly the targets of Hopkins.
  • Positive reports for C.J. Fiedorowicz recently, but the Texans just didn’t pass to their TE position very much at all last season. It would have to be a pretty deep league to draft any of these guys.

Indianapolis Colts

  • Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers as first QB off the board this season? We’ve got Rodgers slightly ahead, but Luck’s got a strong argument in his favour since we’ve projected him for 50 more pass attempts. They run about the same, too. Rodgers is more efficient but wouldn’t argue with you taking Luck.
  • Welcome to the Colts, Frank Gore. There are a lot of bullish opinions on Gore from fantasy players since the signing. Respect where respect is due, but lets not get too crazy over a 32 year old RB who shouldn’t be that far north of 200 carries. We’ve got him sub-1,000 yards, and if anything, I think our 8 TD projection is a little high. Never really a big TD guy, Gore has hit 8 TD five times, only once with under 258 carries. That said, there isn’t much behind him on the depth chart.
  • Is it still T.Y. Hilton’s show or Andre Johnson’s to take over? Luck and Hilton have a great rapport. Don’t see that changing. Johnson is a better receiver than he’s probably given credit for having played with some terrible quarterbacks in his career. If Luck can tap into that early, our AJ projections might be conservative at 77-925-7. Don’t automatically assume Donte Moncrief beats out rookie Phillip Dorsett as WR3.
  • Dwayne Allen is the preferred TE on the Colts, but will never excel as long as Coby Fleener is healthy, and even then it is tough with the receiver depth.
  • Overall, this is an offense you want a piece of on your fantasy team – even edging out Denver at this point – but many mouths to feed.

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Are we looking at something like a second season Ryan Tannehill or a second season … dare I say? … Blaine Gabbert, from Blake Bortles in 2015? The former. The Jaguars appear to be doing the right things putting talented skill players around Bortles, this offseason signing Julius Thomas and drafting T.J. Yeldon. Still modest projections, nothing that is going to help fantasy teams cruise to the playoffs this season, but one to watch for his progress.
  • It’s a pretty full depth chart at RB to keep track of, but signs indicate Yeldon will be the main ball carrier and someone else like hot prospect Bernard Pierce will be out of a job. Denard Robinson is a dynamic player who should catch a fair number of passes.
  • The wide receiver depth chart is perhaps worse than the running backs in terms or no one really stands out. Justin Blackmon would be but he is out of the picture. Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee
    , Allen Hurns – we’ve got Robinson the top dog but still projected 40th at WR.

  • Thomas takes a big hit in value losing Peyton Manning. His double-digit TD seasons are over but he could keep the receptions and yards up with a lot of targets in a 16-game season (something he’s never done, by the way).

Tennessee Titans

  • Not a lot to say about rookie QB Marcus Mariota. The projections are for redraft. He isn’t a draft consideration in all but the deepest leagues and ones that start two quarterbacks.
  • The Bishop Sankey experiment didn’t last long, as fantasy owners are ready to forget him and anoint rookie David Cobb, “the guy”. A player’s rookie season to second season can make a world of difference. Maybe Sankey falls in that category. We’ve got him projected ahead of Cobb, but its going to be tough for any RB to have sustained success on the Titans, because…
  • … the passing game looks potentially terrible. Rookie QB and young, questionable receivers. Not expecting any receiver to top 900 yards.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Houston Texans Fantasy Football Player Projections, Rankings and Commentary

July 14, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Houston Texans running back Arian Foster (23) carries the ball during the Kansas City Chiefs 17-16 victory over the Houston Texans at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. October 20, 2013; Photographer: Jeff Moffett/Icon Sportswire

His fantasy rep took a pounding last year, but Arian Foster is in line for plenty of touches and he may sneak up on owners with a big bounce back season. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Player Tier · Rank Passing Rushing Receiving FPts
QB R. Fitzpatrick
7 · 32nd
225-380-2,650 12 TD 14 INT
35-110 0 TD
–
191.5
QB C. Keenum
NR
100-180-1,150 6 TD 6 INT
15-60 0 TD
–
87.5
QB T. Savage
NR – – –
0.0
RB A. Foster
2 · 10th –
260-1,125 8 TD
50-425 2 TD
215.0
RB A. Brown
8 · 52nd –
75-300 3 TD
20-150 0 TD
63.0
RB A. Blue
NR –
20-90 0 TD
0-00 0 TD
9.0
WR A. Johnson
3 · 16th – –
90-1,100 7 TD
152.0
WR D. Hopkins
7 · 37th – –
55-800 5 TD
110.0
WR D. Posey
NR – –
25-375 1 TD
43.5
WR K. Martin
NR – –
20-225 0 TD
22.5
TE R. Griffin
NR – –
15-150 0 TD
15.0
TE C. Fiedorowicz
NR – –
10-100 0 TD
10.0
TE G. Graham
NR – –
30-400 3 TD
58.0

Data as of July 11 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

A nine-year veteran, Fitzpatrick joins his fifth team this year, heading to Houston and at this point we can probably describe him as a survivor. And the Texans starting quarterback in 2014, according to head coach Bill O’Brien. That’s really only relevant if you are in a fantasy league that starts two quarterbacks or if you are high on Andre Johnson or DeAndre Hopkins since Fitzpatrick is probably preferable to Case Keenum and definitely preferable to rookie 4th round draft pick Tom Savage in terms of helping their fantasy value. We hold out little hope that Fitzpatrick will change his turnover prone, dink and dunk ways in 2014.

RB Arian Foster

After totaling a league high 1,114 touches from 2010 to 2012 seasons, Foster suffered through an injury marred 2013 season in Houston. A back injury caused him to miss eight games and he barely played in two others, finishing the season with 542 rushing yards, 183 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. While Foster’s fantasy rep took a pounding, a closer look reveals that he averaged 13.9 PPG in the six games that he was healthy, hitting double digit fantasy points four times. That’s RB1 status, folks, provided he can stay healthy. Word out of Houston is that Foster will open training camp with a clean bill of health. The Texans are expected to lean heavily on the run with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, so Foster should see plenty of touches in 2014. A bounce back season appears to be in order for Foster, one of the league’s most talented running backs when healthy. We like him as a mid to lower RB1 and advise his owners to grab Andre Brown with a late round pick.

RB Andre Brown

If only Andre Brown could stay healthy. During the past two years with the New York Giants, Brown chalked up 877 rushing yards, 189 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in 16 games but a pair of broken legs caused him to miss huge chunks of time in both seasons. With the Giants choosing to let Brown walk in free agency, the Texans scooped him up to replace Ben Tate as Arian Foster’s lead backup. A hard charging, one cut, downhill runner, Brown has limited upside if he were to sub in for Foster given his injury history, plodding style and lack of receiving ability. New Texans coach Bill O’Brien has been dropping plenty of hints that he will rely heavily on Foster this season meaning Brown isn’t a candidate to be a solid flex option unless he somehow becomes the team’s main option at the goal line. As a potential upside handcuff, we rate him as one of the league’s less appealing options.

WR Andre Johnson

With over 1,200 receiving yards in five of his last six seasons and four 100 reception seasons during that span, Johnson has been a consistent fantasy producer. However, there are storm clouds on the horizon given his age (33 on opening day), a potential holdout and the Texans quarterback situation, where Ryan Fitzpatrick will open the season under center. We think those concerns are a tad overblown. With major issues at quarterback last season, Johnson still pulled in 109 of his 181 targets for 1,407 yards and five touchdowns. Outside of DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans don’t possess any other wide receivers who are ready to emerge as potential starters. The only real issue with Johnson is the possible holdout but he has been a solid citizen during his 11-year career so we fully expect him to be ready to roll on opening day. Consider Johnson an upper tier WR2 for 2014 and one with the potential to finish as a mid-tier WR1.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Taken in the 1st round of the 2013 NFL Draft, Hopkins was handed a starting spot in what was expected to be a high performing Texans offense. The Texans offense failed to reach those heights with Hopkins suffering through a year that can only charitably be described as mildly inconsistent. Despite finishing the year with very respectable numbers (52 receptions for 802 yards and a pair of touchdowns), he simply had too many no-shows, failing to reach 10 receiving yards three times, 40 receiving yards six times and earning 34% of his fantasy points in just two games (the only two double digit fantasy points games of his season). More is expected of Hopkins in 2014, but with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and Andre Johnson threatening to hold out, his fantasy prognosis is difficult to decipher. On the one hand, an AJ holdout would lead to plenty of targets but we aren’t sold that Hopkins is a player that could remain productive with the extra defensive attention. If Fitzpatrick holds the job for the entire season and AJ doesn’t hold out, Hopkins has the potential to reach 1,000 receiving yards and 5-6 touchdowns, making him a low end WR3 or high end WR4 with upside.

WR Keshawn Martin

Two years into his career, Martin has done little to lock down a meaningful role with the Texans. The 2012 4th round pick has operated mainly out of the slot but has shown little playmaking ability and doesn’t catch a high percentage of his targets. With a career average of 10.6 yards per catch and a career completion rate of 47.1%, Martin hasn’t proven that he deserves a spot on the Texans roster let alone a major role in the team’s offense. We don’t expect that narrative to change much in 2014.

WR DeVier Posey

After having suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon during the 2012 NFL Playoffs, Posey wasn’t expected to contribute much for the Texans last season. However, he played reasonably well, returning to the line up in Week 3 and catching 15 of his 25 targets for 155 yards in a limited role. The 2012 3rd round pick possesses solid size and speed but is stuck behind Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins on the depth chart at wide receiver. Since the Texans aren’t expected to finish amongst the league’s leading offensive teams with Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the way at quarterback, there isn’t much point in having one of their backup wide receivers using up a roster spot on your fantasy squad.

TE Garrett Graham

It’s a three horse race for the Texans starting position at tight end this season due to the offseason departure of long time starter Owen Daniels. Graham figures to get first crack at the job given his experience and solid production as a backup over the past two seasons (77 receptions on 127 targets for 808 yards and eight touchdowns). While Graham should open the season as the starter, we fully expect the Texans to utilize all three of their tight ends, rendering this an unappealing fantasy situation and one you should probably avoid.

TE Ryan Griffin

With both Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham out of the line up at the end of last season, Griffin stepped into the starting line up for the final three games of the season and hauled in 14 of his 18 targets for 177 yards. With Daniels out of the picture, the 2nd year player out of Connecticut will battle Garrett Graham and rookie 3rd round pick C.J. Fiedorowicz for the starting position. However, unless Griffin emerges as the clear cut starter and main receiving option, we don’t like his fantasy prospects heading into 2014.

TE C.J. Fiedorowicz

Looking to replenish their depth chart at tight end following the offseason departure of Owen Daniels, the Texans acquired Fiedorowicz with the first pick in the 3rd round of this year’s rookie draft. At 6’6” and 265 pounds, he possesses outstanding size to go along with average speed making him a middling prospect in dynasty formats. With Garrett Graham and Ryan Griffin ahead of Fiedorowicz heading into training camp, he shouldn’t end up on rosters in redraft formats until he puts together a couple of solid games in the regular season.

Also see: Indianapolis Colts | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans
 

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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