buy sell fantasy advice Archives

Buy-Sell Fantasy Baseball Pitchers to Target – deGrom, Scherzer, Herrera

June 20, 2018 By avanfossan Leave a Comment

New York Mets Jacob deGrom is pitching great again this season, but wins are tough to come by on the Mets. That makes him both a buy and sell candidate, depending on your current roto standings.

We’re a little over a month and a half away from the MLB trade deadline. There is still enough time for your favorite team, and more importantly your fantasy baseball team, to make a move to get into the playoffs or the money. Here are three names from a fantasy standpoint that I think may help your chances come September. They are all pitchers and big name pitchers at that.

SP Jacob deGrom, NYM

New York Mets fans have been on the proverbial emotional roller coaster since 2015. They were supposed to have the next Atlanta Braves rotation from the 1990’s with deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey but, due almost exclusively to injury, that hasn’t happened. Instead Syndergaard has shown flashes of dominance then gets hit with the injury bug. Harvey was lights out in 2015 but has progressively gotten worse since then. So much so, he’s now with the Cincinnati Reds.

deGrom is the, “last man standing”. He has been able to put together solid numbers striking out over 200 batters in 2015 and 2017, and is well on his way to 200 more this year. His ERA is 1.51 which is unheard of this late in the season. The problem is who he plays for which leads me to suggest the following:

Fantasy Advice – Sell (if you need Wins)
deGrom is going to get you strikeouts and has a low ERA. What he won’t get you is wins by virtue of playing on the 2018 Mets. The team simply does not score enough runs.

Fantasy Advice – Buy (if you do not need Wins)
deGrom is a three category pitcher (K, ERA and WHIP), which is something you may value over the lack of wins depending on your current roto standings.

SP Max Scherzer, WAS

Staying in the NL East, I want to throw out who I think is the best pitcher on the planet right now, Max Scherzer. “Mad Max” was in the conversation during draft season as to who is the best pitcher in baseball. You had the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Corey Klueber and even Luis Severino in the debate but Scherzer is on a road all his own now.

Scherzer’s 163 strikeouts put him 11 ahead of Gerrit Cole of the Houston Astros and his 11 wins leads Major League Baseball, one ahead of Kluber and Severino. His closest National League competition is a handful of players with 8 wins. Scherzer’s ERA sits at 2.09 through 18 starts.

Scherzer plain and simple is a stud. The Nationals are struggling a little bit more than expected, but eventually they should pull ahead and be in the playoffs whether as a division champion or a wild card team. Scherzer will have a major say in that push for the playoffs.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
All that being said, here’s where things get tricky. For all of the positives I mentioned about Mad Max, what will it take to get him? Target teams – fantasy teams in your league that is – struggling in the hitting categories. If you have a surplus of offense and a good number two, make an offer for him. All they can say is no, but if it looks like a win-win for both sides your fellow owner should consider it.

RP Kelvin Herrera, KC WAS

Herrera used to be the set up man for Wade Davis in Kansas City. When Davis signed with the Chicago Cubs last year, Herrera was given the closer job and did okay earning 26 saves but having an ERA over 4.00. This year is a different story.

Herrera has 14 saves for a team that has a total of 22 wins on the season. To add to his value, he currently has a 1.01 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 26.2 innings pitched. As I’ve stated before from a good friend of mine, “even bad teams need to get saves,” and that’s the case with Herrera…

… or it was when I started drafting this article. Herrera is now on the Washington Nationals, traded in exchange for 3B Kelvin Gutierrez, OF Blake Perkins and RHP Yohanse Morel.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
Herrera will undoubtedly get more save opportunities on his new team and therefore, hopefully, more saves. He’s been in clutch situations before so the big stage shouldn’t be a factor with him. Clearly, the price went up in a matter of days. (Which is why I started recommending him in this article – to trade for him before the Royals did!) Review your roster and see what categories you can afford to scale back and trade an asset to acquire Herrera for his saves and low ratios.

Extra Innings

The Minnesota Twins, as you may or may not know, aren’t doing so good this year. I too was drinking the Kool-Aid and unfortunately, it got watered down very quick. The injury bug hasn’t helped with Byron Buxton’s migraines and a fractured toe, Joe Mauer with another concussion and Ervin Santana yet to pitch. But the biggest disappointment this year has to be Miguel Sano.

Sano was an all-star last year and was supposed to be the third baseman of the future and supply the power the Twins desperately need. He is now at high single A trying to, “recapture his swing” and will be down there for the foreseeable future.

From a fan standpoint, it’s disheartening because you see all the talent in the world with this guy and the Twins have stood by him through thick and thin. From a fantasy standpoint you’re be even more upset because you wasted a pick on a guy, probably mid-round, who was supposed to get you at least 30 bombs and at least 90 RBI. Less than three months later, we are a long way from that happening this season.

Big Names Baseball Buy-Sell Week 10 – Clayton Kershaw, Shohei Ohtani

June 8, 2018 By avanfossan Leave a Comment

Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw is one of the best pitchers in baseball, when he’s able to pitch. Kershaw is headed to the DL again with back issues, and Andy isn’t sure Kershaw can regain his old form this season.

We’re throwing you a curve ball again this week. With the lack of closer movement that is going on – although Baltimore Orioles Zach Britton is supposed to be back within a week – here is a look at some big name players to determine whether you should Buy or Sell for your fantasy baseball team.

OF Eddie Rosario, MIN

I admit it, I’m a homer when it comes to this guy, but as a Minnesota Twins fan we heard about Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano and how they were supposed to take the Twins to the top. Both have been hit with injuries and outside of Buxton’s defense, there really hasn’t been a lot to cheer about with respect to either of them. Enter Rosario.

He was a Top 10 prospect for the Twins but was always kind of an after thought. He is becoming the 1 or 1A offensive threat for the Twins, along with Brian Dozier. Since May 1st, Rosario has 52 hits, with 12 doubles, 11 homers and 31 RBI and a .364 batting average. Draft season expectations still linger however, meaning Rosario is undervalued.

Fantasy Advice – Buy

As mentioned above, Rosario is the Twins leading offensive producer right now. According to MLB.com fantasy baseball, he is projected to hit 29 home runs, drive in 97 and steal 11 bases for the season. He is prone to go on these hot streaks and usually the team follows. Although that hasn’t been the case yet this year, Rosario is coming into his own as an offensive player and in my opinion will be the Twins lone All-Star game representative.

SP Clayton Kershaw, LAD

Yep, Clayton Kershaw, a.k.a. the “best” pitcher on the planet, and the most dominate lefty since Randy Johnson. I’m not much of an, “I told you so,” type of person but in this case, I will be – I told you so. When we drafted back in March, I mocked many times and it always came down to Max Schrezer or Kershaw. I went with Mad Max every time due to the fact I can’t trust Kershaw’s back. It’s happening again.

This is Kershaw’s second stint on the DL this year due to back issues. I’m not a doctor, I just play one for fantasy baseball, but this seems to be a chronic issue for the future Hall of Famer. It makes one wonder how much longer he can continue like this.

Kershaw can opt out of his contract this year and sign for huge money and he’s still relatively young. However part of me wonders if he’ll ride off into the sunset (Texas man) with the money he’s earned, Hall of Fame credentials and the ability to walk and have a pain free life via no more pitching. Another Dodger did it many moons ago (hint: #2), so why not a second lefty?

Fantasy Advice – Sell

When he’s on, he’s obviously one of the top five pitchers in the game (debatable – a topic for another day) but he’s been injured so much these last couple years how can we count on him? I truly think with name recognition only, you can improve your team by offering Kershaw for a solid bat and a solid arm. This may bite you in the long run but for right now, he isn’t doing you any good on the DL. Get something for him while you can. In keeper leagues in particular, try trading him to a contender for some nice future assets.

DH / SP Shohei Ohtani, LAA

This may come as another surprise but Ohtani definitely has some warning signs that may lead you to think about dealing him. His pitching, in my opinion, is his biggest contribution for fantasy and for the Angels so far. Some of his pitching success may be due to the newness of him in the Majors, and some might be that he is that good.

The two-way player experiment has paid some dividends for the Angels but I’m not sure to what degree. His six homeruns and 20 RBI are decent but not necessarily for an American League DH (although the Twins would take it). On the mound, Ohtani is 4-1 with a very good 3.10 ERA. He has also struck out 61 batters in 49 innings.

The issue isn’t his productivity when he’s playing. It’s his blister issue that has already caused him be taken out of a couple games this year. It’s a very small injury but when that blister is on your middle finger, it makes it very tough to grip and especially spin the baseball. There have been many pitchers in the past few years that have, I guess you’d call it, chronic blister issues and it definitely effected their seasons.

Fantasy Advice – Buy / Sell

Would you expect anything else? With Ohtani being a two-way player, he has value on both sides of the ball. With that being said, I would SELL him as a pitcher and BUY him as a hitter. With his blister issue, yes, his numbers are good but are you willing to risk the chance that the blister flares up again?

You may be better to use him as a hitter and see if you can get something for him from the pitching side (depending on how your league treats Ohtani as one player or two). Novice fantasy players are still enamored with Ohtani, so his value is especially high to the right person. If you’ve got a situation with the right circumstances, take advantage.

Extra Innings

One of the best spectacles in sports is the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The grind these players go through, the traditions, team work, and mental toughness is unmatched in any other sport. Read this recent article from ESPN on why hockey players don’t use “I”.

They say football is the ultimate team sport and maybe it is. You can’t run the ball or protect the quarterback without a good offensive line. Pass rushers can’t get to the opposing quarterback without some coverage by the defensive backs.

Hockey is no slouch though in terms of teamwork to be successful. Five guys out there, in the immortal words of coach Norman Dale from Hoosiers, “working as one single unit”. The second assist, the down to earth personalities and the team first mentality is what makes hockey a great sport. Congrats to the Washington Capitals winning the Stanley Cup.

Fantasy Baseball Buy Sell – Khris Davis, Gerrit Cole, Odubel Herrera

May 8, 2018 By Giles Clasen 4 Comments

Giles looks at pitch selection with respect to Houston Astros SP Gerrit Cole and launch angles for Oakland Athletics DH Khris Davis in this week’s fantasy baseball buy sell advice.

OF Yasiel Puig, LAD

Yasiel Puig is expected to come off the disabled list this week. If you own him this year that sounds more like a threat than a reprieve. He is hitting just .193 with zero home runs so far. He has been more hurt than help to the Los Angeles Dodgers and, more importantly, your fantasy baseball team.

Puig has been a slow starter in the past. Last year he hit .229 in April and May. From June onward he hit .281 and was more valuable than Cody Bellinger. Puig has shown the ability to turn things around, but there is more risk with Puig than other players. His soft contact rate is up from last year’s 18.3 percent to 27.1 percent in 2018. This accounts for his career low BABIP of .243 much more than simply bad luck.

Fantasy Advice – Buy

Fortunately for Puig, the Dodgers have nowhere to turn right now meaning he will get some opportunities to bat high in the lineup, especially against right handed pitchers. Puig’s potential makes him a very cheap buy low candidate, just know you may have to be patient for him to show what he is capable of.

DH Khris Davis, OAK

Khris Davis is one of the most consistent and exciting players in baseball. He had a slugging percentage above .500 and hit exactly .247 each of the past three years. He hit an extra inning walk off home run Saturday night and is again on pace to hit 40 home runs.

Khris Davis wins it for the A’s! pic.twitter.com/vIcWrXVrF5

— Sports Daily (@SportsDGI) May 6, 2018

Unfortunately he is batting a mere .215.

I am fascinated with players like Davis. When a player’s average drops the first place to look is his hard hit rate and K-rate. Davis’ K-rate is high at 27.6 percent, but that is actually two percent lower than it was last year. And he is making hard contact 45.7 percent of the time, also an improvement over 2017. So, you would think Davis’ average would improve. Instead it is at a career low .210 and I don’t believe it will improve to anything more than .235.

The reason Davis is hitting for such a low average is his fly ball rate is way up. That is hard to believe because Davis hit fly balls 42.3 percent of the time last year. In 2018 has that up to 47.9 percent. The thing they don’t tell you about the fly ball revolution is that fly balls produce home runs and outs – unfortunately not in equal measure.

2017
Source: baseballsavant

2018

Many of Davis’ stats are mirror images from last year. His biggest change is his launch angle. Comparing his launch angle chart from 2017 and 2018 shows you how his profile has changed. He is hitting a lot more balls beyond the 40 degree mark. That gives major league outfielders all the time in the world to make the catch.

Fantasy Advice – Sell

I don’t know if Davis sees this as a problem or not, but I do. Khris Davis is a sell while some other owner still believes there is time for a turnaround.

RHP Gerrit Cole, PIT

Gerrit Cole is sixth on ESPN’s player rater. He finished 135th last year. So it makes sense to want to sell high while you can. I would hold off on trading Cole. He has made some big adjustments in his approach this year and I believe he will pay dividends all season assuming he stays healthy.

Cole’s worst pitch has always been his sinker. Last year in Pittsburgh he used it 18 percent of the time. Houston’s renowned analytics department must have shown Cole how unreliable this pitch is for him because he is throwing it only 4.9 percent of the time this year. Instead, Cole is relying more heavily on his four seam fastball, slider and curve ball.

Source: Fangraphs

This change has kept batters more off balance and cut down most importantly on home runs. Cole dropped his HR/9 from 1.37 in 2017 to .53 in 2018. This seems impossible considering Cole moved from the home run aloof PNC Park to Houston’s home run giving Minute Maid Park.

Fantasy Advice – Buy

Cole’s change in pitch selection has likely made him a legit ace. I don’t know if there are many players worth getting in a trade for Cole. Short of getting a player similar to Mookie Betts or Max Scherzer I would hold tight. If you can buy him for anything less do it now.

LHP Jose Quintana, CHC

Jose Quintana entered the season with so much promise, but I was a huge skeptic. I owned him in a lot of leagues last year and watched as he struggled through start after start. He did finish strong with a 2.51 ERA in September, but that was after posting a 5.73 ERA in August. So I stayed away from Quintana in this years draft.

So far I look vindicated.

Quintana’s season has been very up and down. In two of his six starts he looked like the player the Cubs traded for. In the other four he has looked terrible. The biggest difference between these games is his walk rate. He has walked four batters three times this season, leading to a career high 4.70 BB/9 and 1.53 WHIP.

I don’t know if Quintana can improve his command enough to become the consistent pitcher you need him to be. I don’t think he is this bad, but I don’t know if he is radically better.

Fantasy Advice – Sell

I am sure you can find another owner who thinks they are getting a steal by trading for Quintana. If I were you I would try to ship him off, getting a player similar to Sean Manaea or Eugenio Suarez in return.

OF Odubel Herrera, PHI

Odubel Herrera is off to a fast start, hitting .333 with 16 Runs and 15 RBI. His streak of 35 straight games reaching base, stretching back to last season, is getting him some notice. More exciting, he is owned in less than 80 percent of CBS and ESPN leagues. The question is can he keep this up?

I think Herrera profiles a lot like Christian Yelich with a lower ceiling. Both rely on a high BABIP made possible by their speed. Yelich makes more hard contact, but both hit a lot of ground balls. I don’t see this as a negative.

As more and more players seek fly balls, players like Herrera become more valuable. Fly balls create home runs and outs. But a quick player can do a lot of damage by hitting line drives and ground balls while minimizing strike outs.

Herrera is striking out just 15.8 percent of the time. He is also hitting for enough power to bat third in a respectable Phillies offense. Herrera is on pace for 80 plus RBI and Runs and I think he can finish the year near 20 home runs with a handful of stolen bases.

Fantasy Advice – Buy

There is a lot to like about Herrera. He isn’t the sexiest player out there, but filling out your team with players like Herrera who don’t hurt you in any category is how you win championships. I would add him in all leagues he is available and trade for him if the offer is right.