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Week 11 Buy Low, Sell High

November 19, 2009 By Dave 2 Comments

Buy Low

Justin Forsett, Seahawks – Just the facts, baby. Julius Jones has bruised ribs and lungs that caused bleeding in his lungs. For the second year in a row, he’s proven he’s not the answer in Seattle. Forsett just put up 123 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries and chipped in 26 yards on five receptions in the passing game. The eight targets he had were also nice. The Seahawks are going nowhere and likely want to see what they have in Forsett. Two questions – why is Jones quickly rushing back to the field and why do the Seahawks want him to? If his owner thinks Jones is coming back soon, get Forsett with a low ball offer. Talk up how they’re playing Minnesota this week so you’re not expecting much from Forsett, but willing to take a chance.
Ladell Betts, Redskins – Clinton Portis said there’s no point in him returning quickly from the concussion he suffered, which he described as a “major situation.” In his first start since 2006, Betts carried the rock 26 times for 114 yards and a touchdown. In the last two games, he has 213 total yards and two touchdowns. If his owner thinks Portis is coming back soon, get Betts with a lowball offer (if you think this is redundant now, keep reading).
LeSean McCoy, Eagles – Eagles starter Brian Westbrook has concussions in the last two games he has played which were three weeks apart. In addition, Eagles management has expressed their concern by stating that football is secondary for Westbrook for the time being. I’m not a doctor but if it took three weeks to recover from his first concussion, then it’s likely going to take at least that long for him to recover from his next concussion. The Eagles are fixated on throwing the ball so McCoy hasn’t been overly productive but (here we go) if his owner thinks Westbrook is coming back soon, get McCoy with a lowball offer (there, I’m done).
Chris Wells, Cardinals – You don’t have to be a pro scout to know that Wells is a more talented player than incumbent starter Tim Hightower. All you have to do is watch part of a Cardinals game to have that figured out. Fumbles, pass protection and receiving ability are what have held Wells back. However, over the next six weeks, the only team that will likely challenge the Cardinals is the Vikings in Week 13. So, that means plenty of leads which means plenty of runs which should mean plenty of Wells. It’s also nice that Wells is starting to get some carries in the red zone, previously the exclusive domain of Hightower. Be forewarned – the Rams are on tap this week so this is your last chance to get Wells.
Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, Packers – Jennings hasn’t broken out of his season long slump and is on pace to match a career low in receiving touchdowns while Driver’s nice little run has slowed down somewhat albeit not drastically. The Packers atrocious offensive line is cause for concern (can Aaron Rodgers last the season?) but the upcoming schedule features some low rated passing defenses (49ers, Lions, Seahawks) and a couple of defenses whose rankings are inflated due to facing bad passing teams (Ravens, Bears).
Jerricho Cotchery, Jets – Since he returned two games ago, Cotchery has turned 19 targets into nine receptions for 138 yards and a score. Braylon Edwards has 13 targets over the same stretch so that blows away the theory that Edwards’ presence would cut into Cotchery’s opportunities. If you buy into that (you should) and that Cotchery has performed well while knocking off the rust, then he is a good player to target for the fantasy playoffs. The next three games are ugly facing three top ten passing defenses, but after that it looks sweet.
Dustin Keller, Jets – As with Cotchery, the fantasy playoff schedule looks sweet and since Leon Washington was lost for the year, the Jets have rediscovered Keller in the passing game. Over his last two games, Keller has been targeted 22 times and turned that into 14 receptions for 134 yards and a score. For fantasy purposes, that’s top five tight end production for a guy who is likely lingering on his owner’s bench.

Sell High

Brandon Marshall, Broncos – Remarkably, Kyle Orton‘s presence in Denver hasn’t killed Marshall’s fantasy production. The question is – will a banged up Orton kill Marshall’s fantasy production? It says here that it will. Orton has played injured before (and kudos to him for doing so) but he has struggled when he has done so. And it’s worth noting that Chris Simms was awful in relief of Orton this week completing just 3 of 13 for 13 yards and a pick.
LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers – Admittedly, LT looked good this week and, although he didn’t really show flashes of his old self, he certainly looked like a guy who could generate some yards on his own. It’s also true that the Chargers get the Chiefs and Browns in weeks 12 and 13. However, the down side is the fantasy playoffs where it’s the Cowboys, Bengals and an improving Titans run defense. Sell high if the offer is good.
Kevin Smith, Lions – Smith gets the lowly Browns this week but after that, he faces a brutal schedule that includes the Packers (4th ranked run defense), Bengals (2nd), Ravens (5th), Cardinals (8th) and 49ers (3rd).
Roy Williams, Cowboys – After a disappointing start to the season, Williams has come on over the last two games with 180 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, the Cowboys don’t get another decent matchup in the passing game until Week 15 against the Saints, who will likely be over their injury issues by then. I would be working overtime trying to move this guy.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks – What’s not to like? Houshmandzadeh is coming off a 165 yard performance. The upcoming schedule looks great, other than the Packers’ sixth ranked pass defense in Week 16. QB Matt Hasselbeck has topped 300 yards in each of the last two games. Well, here are two things to consider – he has generated almost half his fantasy points in two games and has only three double digit fantasy points games on the season. Boom or bust is fine for your WR3 but you need a little more consistency at the WR2 spot. If an owner in your league is viewing him as WR2 material, move him.

Week 9 Buy Low, Sell High

November 5, 2009 By Dave Leave a Comment

Buy Low

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins – It’s not exactly a Buy Low but Brown is coming off his worst game of the season with 27 yards on 11 carries against the Jets. Plus, he struggled the previous week against the Saints and his 2-week totals are 27 carries for 75 yards and a TD. It’s possible that you can sell his owner that he’s struggling because teams are clamping down on the Dolphins running game due to their struggles to pass the ball with 2nd-year quarterback Chad Henne and a cast of below average wide receivers. If it works, then Brown is definitely worth targeting because, even with is recent struggles, he’s on pace for over 1,300 total yards and 16 touchdowns.
Steve Slaton, Texans – Slaton has apparently fumbled away the starting gig in Houston with Ryan Moats exploding on the scene in Buffalo this past week to the tune of 151 total yards and 3 touchdowns. Texans head coach Gary Kubiak has said that his backfield will be a 3-headed monster consisting of Moats, Slaton and Chris Brown. Here’s the history – Moats has never achieved extended success in the NFL since being drafted in 2005 and Brown has proven this year that he’s not even a serviceable backup. If you can trade some depth for Slaton and afford to sit him until he returns to the starting line-up, you should do it.
Kevin Walter, Texans – The Texans lost tight end Owen Daniels to injury and running back Steve Slaton was benched. The team’s backup tight ends are Joel Dreesen and a pair of rookies (James Casey and Anthony Hill), one of whom just underwent surgery. The Texans options are force-feeding Dreesen or increasing the role of one of their receivers and Walter’s size makes him the best option to replace what Daniels was bringing to the table.
Jason Witten, Cowboys – Witten was ranked as a top 3 fantasy tight end heading into the season with many pundits ranking him at number 1. However, he’s on pace to finish the season with 795 receiving yards and just 2 touchdowns which nets you 91 fantasy points on the season in standard leagues or 5.7 points per game. Frankly speaking, I’m not sold that his numbers are going to go up much but if you can get him cheap, he’s worth taking a flyer on.

Sell High

Matt Forte, Bears – Forte enjoyed a solid game this week against the pathetic Browns but he’s not likely to carry your squad to victory many times over the balance of the season. Other than the Rams and Packers, there are no cream puffs on the schedule. Other opponents include the Cardinals, 49ers, Eagles, Vikings (twice) and Baltimore. Plus the Lions in week 17 but that’s not going to help you much. If a team in your league thinks he’s turned the corner, then move him now.
LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers – The Forte situation holds true for LT as well. Nice fantasy performance this week against the Chiefs but 56 yards on 18 carries is really more bad news than good so don’t be fooled by the 2 rushing TD. The only patsies on the run schedule coming up are the Browns and the Chiefs so it might be time to move LT if the package gets you a RB1 in return.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Sell high on a guy who just got the starting gig and is averaging a nifty 5.0 yards a carry? Yeah, that’s right. The yards per carry is misleading because it has come mostly on passing downs and often when defenses are playing soft because the Chiefs are playing from behind. Plus, the Chiefs have run the ball 203 times this year without scoring a rushing touchdown and the fact there’s no guarantee Charles will retain the job when Larry Johnson returns from injury. It says here that if somebody in your league thinks Charles will succeed where LJ failed as a RB2, then you should be selling even if the return is only a quality WR3.
Matt Schaub, Texans – Schaub was a top 3 quarterback heading into Week 8 against the Bills but dropped a bit due to his inability to get a passing touchdown against a solid Bills secondary. Going forward, it’s a little disconcerting that he’s lost Daniels, the top ranked fantasy tight end this season, and a solid receiving running back in Slaton due to him being benched. In addition, stud wideout Andre Johnson has just 8 catches for 125 yards and no touchdowns over the last 2 games, perhaps signalling that he is suffering lingering effects from a chest injury. Hard to sell a top rated quarterback but if the return is there, it’s worth the risk.

Hey, we’ve got a new category this week and it’s Sell Now. And it’s reserved for a special guy – Larry Johnson of the Chiefs – because special guys like him deserve special categories. Maybe the category should be called Some People Never Learn. Or perhaps Is This Guy Living In The 20th Century? I could go on…

Great opportunities this week and with league trade deadlines now getting closer, it’s time to jump in. As they say in real estate, it’s better to set the market than to chase it, especially in dynasty leagues. Giddy up.

Buy Low

Steven Jackson, Rams – Jackson has the Lions this week who may be without Calvin Johnson. If the Rams are going to win a game this year, this may be it. Jackson knows it and he’s going to run determined. Expect him to run all over a soft Lions defense. Disclaimer: Rams are my team so there may be some bias here. Anyway, if you like Jackson and the fact he is 4th in the league in total yards per game and can’t possibly keep avoiding the end zone, buy now before he obliterates the Lions.
Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, Cardinals – Boldin has a high ankle sprain so he is defiinitely a buy low candidate given the concerns about his availability. However, all Cardinals weapons in the passing game are solid options the rest of the way due to their ridiculously easy schedule. After this week’s game against the league’s top ranked pass defense (Carolina), the Cardinals don’t face a pass defense ranked in the top half of the league. Their schedule during the fantasy playoffs include the 49ers, Lions and Rams. This one’s a no-brainer.
Carson Palmer, Bengals – Palmer looked rusty for much of this season until the Bengals blowout win this week over the Bears when he went 20 of 24 for 233 yards and 5 TD. Not a bad days work. If you subscribe to the theory that Palmer’s poor performance over much of his team’s first 6 games was due to rust from missing most of last season and that he’s now back to his Pro Bowl form, then it’s time to buy in. As an added incentive, after this week’s bye the Bengals face 4 pass defenses ranked 21st or lower and don’t have a single game against a top 10 pass defense.
Greg Jennings, Packers – Another game, another ho-hum TD-less performance from Jennings, this time against the sad-sack Browns. At this point, he’s on pace to finish the season with 950 receiving yards and just 2 TD. The Packers don’t face a top 10 pass defense the rest of the way so look for the Jennings magic to return soon. Like SJax, if his owner is fixated on the lack of touchdowns, then it’s time to jump into the fray with a below market offer.

Sell High

Thomas Jones, Jets – Jones has put up remarkable fantasy points this season courtesy of 7 touchdowns in 7 games. With Leon Washington out for the season and rookie Shonn Greene not able to replace Washington’s pass receiving ability, Jones figures to get increased touches the rest of the way. Heck, even his schedule is favorable so why sell high? Basically, if somebody is willing to sell the farm for Jones under the assumption that things will only get better for him given his situation, then you should be selling. I just don’t see him finishing the season with 1,400-plus yards and averaging a touchdown a game.
Tony Romo, Cowboys – After 7 games, Romo has had 3 solid fantasy outings and 3 poor ones. The solid outings were against soft pass defenses – Bucs, Chiefs and Falcons. The duds were against solid pass defenses – Giants, Panthers and Broncos. Between now and the end of the fantasy playoffs, Romo faces 5 top ten pass defenses and of the other 5 games, the lowest ranked pass defense is the 16th ranked Seahawks. Basically, if the Romo formula of bad games against good pass defenses continues, Romo’s going to be putting up some duds the rest of the way. So, are you on the side of history or not?
Kyle Orton, Broncos – Orton has been surprisingly effective as a fantasy starter this season but the road ahead isn’t a pretty one. The Broncos face 4 top 10 defenses over the next 9 weeks and the only patsy on the schedule is the Chiefs in week 13 unless you consider the Ravens game this week an easy one. If Orton is your starter, it’s time to package him and a backup WR or RB for a more servicable starter at quarterback.

Sell Now

Larry Johnson, Chiefs – He’s been suspended for 2 weeks and it’s highly doubtful that he will play another game for the Chiefs. Basically, this is a case of taking 10 cents on the dollar and being happy about it. If a team desperate for running back help is offering up a WR4 or even less, then take it and be glad you did.