bust Archives | DraftBuddy.com

Average Draft Position (“ADP”) data available from websites like Mock Draft Central give a fairly accurate view of where players are expected to be drafted in similar format leagues. Ah, but is that ADP number justified, or is the player getting far more credit than they deserve?

As astute fantasy players, that is what we need to assess—which players are the most undervalued, and which players are the most overvalued, otherwise known as sleepers and busts.

I gave you my All-Sleeper Team the other day. Here are the players I expect will underperform compared to what is being forecast by the users at Mock Draft Central, my All-Bust Team.

C Jorge Posada , NYY—Posada is will not get a lot of at bats this season. As he ages, his body can only take so much of a beating behind the plate. With the addition of Nick Johnson, Posada will see little time at 1B and DH in 2010 and he will get a lot of rest in preparation for an expected long October stretch of games. Look for less than 300 AB and a proportionally low grouping of statistics.

1B Joey Votto, CIN—Votto is getting close to that magical age of 27, when players seem to “come into their own”. But I think we’ve seen most of what Votto is capable of. He’s a good player, one I’d be proud to see on my favorite MLB team or my fantasy squad, but I wouldn’t pay a third round pick for him. That’s where he’s going at MDC and I just don’t think he’s going to produce numbers anywhere close to the value you should get in the third round.

2B Ben Zobrist, TB—I know I’m in the minority on this one, but I think Zobrist just played out of his mind in 2009. There is nothing in his minor league or previous major league stats that would suggest he should have posted anything close to .297/27/91/17 or ever will again. I’m just not a believer that he’ll continue to perform at that level and his value is nowhere near the 4.13 draft pick used on average to pluck him off the board.

3B Alex Rodriguez, NYY—It’s hard to imagine that a guy projected to go .281/30/91/15 will be a bust, but that’s what he is when you consider everything else. He’s one of the all-time greats (with or without his cousin poking him in the butt with a needle) but he seems to live on his reputation a little bit when his next contract isn’t riding on his current performance. There are five other third basemen that should post similar or better numbers and all can be had after 1.04 in your draft. Don’t pay for the name, wait a round or two for Pablo Sandoval or Ryan Zimmerman and get a better value.

SS Jason Bartlett, TB—Bartlett is a solid hitter with a great glove. But it looks like the users at MDC are paying for his glove, something that is completely worthless in fantasy baseball. Because of his leadership skills, he will be in the Rays lineup every day that he is healthy, but he just isn’t worth a sixth round pick. If you wait, you can get Jhonny Peralta, Ryan Theriot or Erick Aybar 7-11 rounds later and still get similar stats.

OF Curtis Granderson, NYY, Jayson Werth, PHI and Alfonso Soriano, CHC—These three will all have good seasons, but they are going way too high in fantasy drafts. Granderson had a super 2007 and many expect him to do it again at the new Yankee Stadium, playing with the Bombers. Werth had a career year last year and is in a contact year this season, so many are looking for him to be even better. Soriano was one of the best players in baseball in the mid-2000s, but his skills are declining and so is his health. They would all be excellent picks in the seventh through ninth rounds, but they will most likely be off the board by that time. Let someone else waste a high pick on them while you find your value elsewhere.

DH Vladimir Guerrero, TEX—Vlad has landed in a hitter’s haven. Hitting in the hot Texas sun might help his stats early in the season, but his body is breaking down and he will wilt under that same hot sun by the end of the summer. Guerrero is a shell of his old self and will not return much value to your fantasy squad and he’s certainly nowhere near the 11.10 ADP that he is showing at MDC.

SP Jake Peavy, CWS—Peavy was traded at the deadline last season and then proceeded to post a 1.35 ERA with a 0.85 WHIP. Don’t look for that to continue as he pitches in a stadium that is much more hitter friendly than his old home PetCo Park and in a league that will be a lot less forgiving. Peavy will struggle at times this season and isn’t worth a sixth round pick.

RP Mariano Rivera, NYY—Mo is 40 years old and is a major injury risk. Like Posada, the Yankees will sacrifice individual stats for the opportunity to hang a 28th banner at Yankee Stadium. Look for the Yankees to rest Rivera during some save situations. Also, with such a powerful offense, the Yankees will win a large number of games by more than the three runs required to record a save.

Most of these players have earned their reputations with quality play over the years. If they slip in your draft, then that is great, feel free to pull the trigger. However, right now they are going too high in mock drafts and you should not take them as early as the consensus currently has them pegged.

The rankings and projections are in place, but who are the particular players you want to target later in your draft who are going to far exceed expectations? On the flip side, what players need to be avoided because they are getting drafted far earlier than they deserve to be? These are my sleepers and busts at the forward positions heading into the 2009-10 NHL season.

Sleepers

These players are coming off subpar seasons, or are primed for a breakout campaign. Either way, they are likely to be undervalued on draft day, and could reward whoever drafts them.

Paul Kariya, LW, STL – He was injured last year, and had a subpar 07/08 campaign. That being said, he was off to a great start last year before the injury, and could slip through the cracks on draft day.

Patrick O’Sullivan, RW/LW, EDM – O’Sullivan is a talented player coming off a bad year, and should see tons of time on the power play and top two lines. He could get a long look for the top LW spot alongside Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky.

Drew Stafford, RW, BUF – Stafford has improved steadily throughout his NHL career. An increase in playing time and responsibility should help him reach his offensive potential.

Chris Higgins, LW, NYR – Higgins tanked along with the rest of the Canadiens last year. The change of scenery should do him some good, and he will be counted upon to produce in a thin Rangers offence.

Alex Tanguay, LW/RW, TB – He has the ultimate motivator: a one year contract. Tanguay should also see quality ice time with the likes of Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier, and will want to prove that he deserved better from the Habs.

Steven Stamkos, C, TB – He played very well in the second half of last season, and the Lightning have nowhere to go but up. Stamkos’ development should be a big part of Tampa’s improvement this year.

Claude Giroux, C/RW, PHI – Played well with limited exposure in the regular season, and was awesome in the playoffs.

Peter Mueller, C/RW, PHO – The sophomore slump hit this guy in a big way. Don’t let that fool you though. Mueller is a big time goal-scoring talent, and the Coyotes will give him every opportunity to produce this year.

Ville Leino, LW/RW, DET – Detroit just keeps manufacturing defensively responsible players with offensive upside. Leino might see some time with the top six this year, and could surprise some people.

Sam Gagner, C/W, EDM – Gagner played well in the latter part of last season, and the Oilers will count on him to step up his offensive production this year.

Honourable mentions: T.J. Oshie, Todd Bertuzzi, Kyle Okposo, Derick Brassard

Busts

These guys overachieved last year, inflating their pre-season value in the eyes of most fantasy junkies. You might be able to find better value at the spots in the draft where they’re likely to go.

Mike Cammalleri, LW/RW, MTL – He hasn’t been a model of consistency throughout his career, and last year was a contract year. He might approach 30 goals again, especially playing with a quality playmaker like Scott Gomez, but 82 points seems a stretch.

Todd White, C, ATL – His 73 points last year were nearly double the previous year’s output, and he’s 34 years old.

Jamie Langenbrunner, RW, NJ – See above. Career offensive years at 34 are often followed by disappointment. A point total in the mid 50’s is probably a more reasonable expectation.

David Krejci, C, BOS – Krejci ended last season with a bit of a whimper, scoring 14 points over his final 24 games, after being better than a point-per-game player to that point in the season. He’s also coming off hip surgery, and might not be ready to start the season. A drop from last year’s 73 points seems likely.

Patrik Elias, LW, NJ – Season-to-season consistency has never been his thing. In the past, he’s followed up 96 and 81 point seasons with sub-par or injury filled campaigns the next year. Not saying he won’t be good, just don’t expect 31 goals and 78 points again. He is also likely to miss the start of the season with groin issues.

Vyacheslav Kozlov, LW, ATL – Jumped from 41 points in 07/08 to 76 in 08/09 and he’s 37 years old: be wary. Around 65 points may be a far more reasonable expectation.

Jeff Carter, C, PHI – Carter did the bulk of his scoring in the first half of last season, then faded down the stretch, and was invisible in the playoffs. 35 goals and 75 points is reasonable, but someone will draft him too high based on last year’s totals.

Keith Tkachuk, LW/C, STL – His production has been declining steadily, and he’s now 37 years old. The Blues have a plethora of young talent up front, and Tkachuk’s main impact will be in the dressing room.