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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Friday August 10

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The New York Yankees are facing a LHP at home (Mike Minor TEX who has faced 484 batters). On FanDuel the Yankees are currently putting up 2.55 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP at home and Mike Minor is currently allowing 109% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.78 (2.55 x 109%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Yankees LHP at home Mike Minor TEX 484 2.55 x 109% 2.78 +0.23 1.92 x 109% 2.09 +0.17
Cardinals RHP on road Burch Smith KCR 260 2.16 x 126% 2.73 +0.57 1.64 x 123% 2.03 +0.38
Red Sox RHP on road Dylan Bundy BAL 513 2.38 x 113% 2.69 +0.31 1.80 x 112% 2.03 +0.22
Tigers RHP at home Ervin Santana MIN 68 1.99 x 130% 2.58 +0.59 1.53 x 131% 2.00 +0.48
Athletics RHP on road Felix Pena LAA 169 2.45 x 106% 2.58 +0.14 1.85 x 105% 1.94 +0.09
Dodgers RHP on road Jon Gray COL 520 2.39 x 104% 2.48 +0.09 1.80 x 103% 1.87 +0.06
Diamondbacks RHP on road Anthony DeSclafani CIN 252 2.06 x 117% 2.41 +0.35 1.56 x 117% 1.82 +0.26
White Sox RHP at home Shane Bieber CLE 247 2.12 x 109% 2.31 +0.19 1.63 x 111% 1.81 +0.18
Mets RHP on road Jose Urena MIA 516 2.25 x 102% 2.31 +0.06 1.70 x 102% 1.74 +0.04
Twins RHP on road Jordan Zimmermann DET 325 2.06 x 110% 2.26 +0.20 1.56 x 111% 1.73 +0.17
Brewers RHP on road Kevin Gausman ATL 557 2.07 x 107% 2.22 +0.15 1.60 x 109% 1.74 +0.15
Astros RHP at home Mike Leake SEA 590 2.13 x 104% 2.22 +0.09 1.61 x 106% 1.71 +0.10
Rockies RHP at home Kenta Maeda LAD 439 2.32 x 96% 2.21 -0.10 1.77 x 95% 1.68 -0.08
Rays RHP on road Marco Estrada TOR 421 1.96 x 112% 2.19 +0.23 1.51 x 111% 1.68 +0.17
Pirates LHP on road Derek Holland SFG 495 2.10 x 101% 2.12 +0.02 1.60 x 100% 1.60 +0.01
Angels LHP at home Brett Anderson OAK 184 1.77 x 116% 2.05 +0.28 1.36 x 117% 1.60 +0.24
Phillies RHP on road Jacob Nix SDP – 1.99 x 100% 1.99 +0.00 1.52 x 100% 1.52 +0.00
Rangers RHP on road Masahiro Tanaka NYY 414 1.99 x 97% 1.93 -0.06 1.52 x 97% 1.47 -0.04
Orioles RHP at home Nathan Eovaldi BOS 274 2.15 x 88% 1.88 -0.27 1.64 x 89% 1.46 -0.18
Giants RHP at home Clay Holmes PIT 53 2.13 x 89% 1.88 -0.24 1.62 x 88% 1.42 -0.20
Royals LHP at home Austin Gomber STL 111 1.76 x 106% 1.87 +0.11 1.38 x 103% 1.43 +0.04
Reds RHP at home Clay Buchholz ARI 233 2.13 x 85% 1.82 -0.31 1.62 x 87% 1.41 -0.20
Indians LHP on road Carlos Rodon CHW 262 2.18 x 84% 1.83 -0.36 1.67 x 83% 1.38 -0.29
Padres RHP at home Zach Eflin PHI 347 1.86 x 95% 1.77 -0.09 1.43 x 96% 1.37 -0.06
Braves RHP at home Freddy Peralta MIL 214 2.10 x 85% 1.78 -0.32 1.60 x 81% 1.29 -0.30
Mariners RHP on road Gerrit Cole HOU 576 2.17 x 78% 1.68 -0.48 1.66 x 78% 1.29 -0.37
Blue Jays LHP at home Blake Snell TBR 489 2.13 x 78% 1.66 -0.47 1.62 x 78% 1.27 -0.35
Marlins RHP at home Zack Wheeler NYM 532 1.83 x 89% 1.62 -0.21 1.42 x 89% 1.26 -0.16

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups Analysis for Saturday August 4

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Minnesota Twins are facing a RHP at home (Burch Smith KCR who has faced 236 batters). On FanDuel the Twins are currently putting up 2.30 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Burch Smith is currently allowing 121% more PPA than the MLB average (2.119 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.79 (2.30 x 121%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.119 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Twins RHP at home Burch Smith KCR 236 2.30 x 121% 2.79 +0.49 1.74 x 119% 2.06 +0.33
Indians RHP at home Felix Pena LAA 148 2.56 x 107% 2.73 +0.17 1.92 x 106% 2.04 +0.12
Nationals LHP at home Matt Harvey CIN 428 2.32 x 112% 2.59 +0.27 1.75 x 111% 1.95 +0.20
Rangers RHP at home Dylan Bundy BAL 488 2.27 x 113% 2.57 +0.31 1.70 x 113% 1.92 +0.22
Red Sox RHP at home Chance Adams NYY – 2.55 x 100% 2.55 +0.00 1.93 x 100% 1.93 +0.00
Cubs LHP at home Joey Lucchesi SDP 325 2.54 x 99% 2.50 -0.04 1.91 x 99% 1.88 -0.02
Mariners RHP at home Marco Estrada TOR 397 2.01 x 116% 2.34 +0.33 1.56 x 116% 1.80 +0.24
Cardinals RHP on road Ivan Nova PIT 487 2.12 x 110% 2.33 +0.22 1.61 x 112% 1.80 +0.19
Dodgers RHP at home Lance McCullers Jr. HOU 506 2.35 x 96% 2.26 -0.09 1.78 x 94% 1.68 -0.10
Astros RHP on road Kenta Maeda LAD 415 2.40 x 92% 2.22 -0.18 1.81 x 92% 1.67 -0.14
Diamondbacks LHP at home Andrew Suarez SFG 414 2.14 x 101% 2.16 +0.02 1.64 x 103% 1.69 +0.05
Athletics RHP at home Jordan Zimmermann DET 297 2.00 x 109% 2.18 +0.18 1.52 x 110% 1.67 +0.15
Phillies RHP at home Jose Urena MIA 491 2.24 x 98% 2.20 -0.04 1.69 x 98% 1.66 -0.03
Yankees RHP on road Nathan Eovaldi BOS 248 2.20 x 94% 2.06 -0.14 1.67 x 95% 1.58 -0.08
Braves RHP on road Zack Wheeler NYM 508 2.23 x 91% 2.04 -0.20 1.70 x 92% 1.55 -0.14
Reds RHP on road Jeremy Hellickson WSN 297 2.10 x 95% 1.99 -0.11 1.60 x 96% 1.54 -0.06
Mets RHP at home Kevin Gausman ATL 534 1.79 x 108% 1.93 +0.14 1.37 x 110% 1.51 +0.13
Brewers LHP at home Tyler Anderson COL 518 1.99 x 96% 1.92 -0.07 1.51 x 96% 1.45 -0.05
Angels RHP on road Corey Kluber CLE 561 2.23 x 84% 1.87 -0.36 1.70 x 86% 1.46 -0.24
Marlins RHP on road Zach Eflin PHI 320 1.93 x 96% 1.85 -0.08 1.50 x 97% 1.45 -0.05
Blue Jays LHP on road James Paxton SEA 505 2.13 x 88% 1.87 -0.26 1.61 x 88% 1.42 -0.19
Pirates LHP at home Austin Gomber STL 90 2.03 x 93% 1.89 -0.14 1.55 x 90% 1.40 -0.15
Orioles LHP on road Mike Minor TEX 460 1.63 x 112% 1.83 +0.20 1.28 x 112% 1.43 +0.15
Rays LHP at home Carlos Rodon CHW 238 2.14 x 85% 1.82 -0.31 1.63 x 84% 1.37 -0.25
Padres RHP on road Kyle Hendricks CHC 527 1.76 x 99% 1.74 -0.02 1.37 x 100% 1.37 +0.00
Royals RHP on road Jose Berrios MIN 563 1.96 x 88% 1.72 -0.24 1.51 x 88% 1.33 -0.18
Rockies RHP on road Freddy Peralta MIL 192 2.04 x 86% 1.75 -0.29 1.55 x 82% 1.27 -0.28
White Sox LHP on road Blake Snell TBR 474 2.00 x 77% 1.54 -0.46 1.54 x 77% 1.20 -0.35
Giants RHP on road Clay Buchholz ARI 206 1.87 x 81% 1.52 -0.36 1.46 x 83% 1.21 -0.25
Tigers RHP on road Edwin Jackson OAK 166 1.72 x 89% 1.53 -0.18 1.33 x 89% 1.18 -0.15

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups Analysis for Sunday July 29

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The New York Yankees are facing a RHP at home (Burch Smith KCR who has faced 216 batters). On FanDuel the Yankees are currently putting up 2.53 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Burch Smith is currently allowing 118% more PPA than the MLB average (2.114 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.98 (2.53 x 118%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.114 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.612
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Yankees RHP at home Burch Smith KCR 216 2.53 x 118% 2.98 +0.45 1.90 x 116% 2.20 +0.30
Athletics RHP on road German Marquez COL 476 2.50 x 112% 2.80 +0.30 1.89 x 112% 2.11 +0.22
Astros LHP at home Mike Minor TEX 437 2.15 x 114% 2.46 +0.31 1.65 x 114% 1.87 +0.23
Phillies RHP on road Luis Castillo CIN 467 2.09 x 116% 2.41 +0.33 1.59 x 114% 1.82 +0.23
Rockies RHP at home Frankie Montas OAK 227 2.40 x 98% 2.35 -0.05 1.82 x 99% 1.81 -0.01
Rays RHP on road Dylan Bundy BAL 462 1.95 x 114% 2.23 +0.28 1.51 x 113% 1.71 +0.20
Red Sox RHP at home Jose Berrios MIN 535 2.54 x 87% 2.21 -0.34 1.93 x 87% 1.68 -0.25
Mets RHP on road Joe Musgrove PIT 260 2.31 x 95% 2.20 -0.11 1.74 x 97% 1.68 -0.05
Twins RHP on road Nathan Eovaldi BOS 224 2.12 x 101% 2.14 +0.02 1.61 x 102% 1.64 +0.03
Nationals RHP on road Jose Urena MIA 469 2.08 x 102% 2.12 +0.03 1.59 x 102% 1.61 +0.03
Indians RHP on road Jordan Zimmermann DET 281 2.04 x 102% 2.09 +0.05 1.55 x 104% 1.61 +0.05
Brewers LHP on road Andrew Suarez SFG 388 2.09 x 99% 2.07 -0.02 1.58 x 101% 1.59 +0.01
Cardinals RHP at home Kyle Hendricks CHC 502 2.04 x 100% 2.05 +0.00 1.57 x 101% 1.59 +0.02
Pirates RHP at home Zack Wheeler NYM 484 2.19 x 94% 2.07 -0.13 1.67 x 94% 1.58 -0.10
Cubs RHP on road John Gant STL 235 2.26 x 90% 2.04 -0.22 1.72 x 87% 1.50 -0.22
Reds RHP at home Zach Eflin PHI 295 2.12 x 94% 1.98 -0.13 1.60 x 95% 1.52 -0.09
Giants RHP at home Junior Guerra MIL 439 2.18 x 91% 1.98 -0.20 1.66 x 91% 1.51 -0.15
Diamondbacks LHP on road Joey Lucchesi SDP 304 2.14 x 92% 1.96 -0.18 1.63 x 92% 1.50 -0.13
Mariners RHP on road Felix Pena LAA 139 2.09 x 88% 1.83 -0.26 1.60 x 89% 1.43 -0.17
Blue Jays LHP on road Carlos Rodon CHW 209 2.13 x 88% 1.88 -0.25 1.60 x 87% 1.39 -0.21
Dodgers LHP on road Sean Newcomb ATL 462 2.05 x 91% 1.86 -0.19 1.55 x 90% 1.40 -0.16
Rangers RHP on road Lance McCullers Jr. HOU 482 1.94 x 96% 1.85 -0.08 1.48 x 94% 1.38 -0.09
Marlins RHP at home Jeremy Hellickson WSN 274 1.88 x 92% 1.74 -0.14 1.46 x 94% 1.37 -0.09
Royals LHP on road J.A. Happ NYY 475 1.74 x 101% 1.76 +0.02 1.35 x 100% 1.35 +0.00
Tigers RHP at home Corey Kluber CLE 534 2.02 x 86% 1.73 -0.29 1.55 x 88% 1.36 -0.19
White Sox LHP at home Ryan Borucki TOR 128 1.76 x 96% 1.69 -0.08 1.37 x 97% 1.33 -0.04
Braves RHP at home Ross Stripling LAD 405 2.06 x 81% 1.67 -0.39 1.57 x 86% 1.34 -0.23
Orioles TBD at home TBD/Bullpen TBR – 1.63 x 100% 1.63 +0.00 1.29 x 100% 1.29 +0.00
Padres RHP at home Clay Buchholz ARI 180 1.89 x 79% 1.49 -0.40 1.45 x 81% 1.18 -0.27
Angels LHP at home Marco Gonzales SEA 481 1.59 x 89% 1.41 -0.18 1.23 x 91% 1.12 -0.11