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Pre-Training Camp Fantasy Football News and Notes

July 21, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Here is a recap of key NFL news and notes from the last two weeks potentially impacting the fantasy football value of the players mentioned and their teammates. It’s been pretty quiet on the news front heading into the start of training camps later this week, but a few of these items will factor in to our next projections and rankings update.

Free Agents of Interest

RB Chris Johnson
WR Reggie Wayne
TE Jermaine Gresham

Potential Roster Cuts

RB Ronnie Hillman, Broncos
WR Josh Morgan, Saints
WR Justin Hunter, Titans
TE Andrew Quarless, Packers

Arizona Cardinals

We have Michael Floyd ranked fairly high at wide receiver, wondering if he is a “year too early” candidate from high expectations heading into last season. Now it seems the fantasy community is very bullish about John Brown, who admittedly is receiving positive reports from working out with QB Carson Palmer. This is a situation to monitor closely through training camp.

Atlanta Falcons

WR Leonard Hankerson could assume the third wideout spot ahead of rookie Justin Hardy, who could be eased into action. Hankerson is reunited with Kyle Shanahan from their days together with the Washington Redskins.

Baltimore Ravens

If the Ravens don’t add a veteran receiver, then keep an eye on the progress of rookie Breshad Perriman vs. Marlon Brown to be the starter opposite Steve Smith.

Buffalo Bills

Praise for QB Tyrod Taylor out of Bills camp, and given the questionable competition in front of him, these reports have some merit. What the heck, I just added Taylor in a deep dynasty league, dropping Texans QB prospect Tom Savage.

TE MarQueis Gray is excited about the offense for the tight ends. Who? Exactly, but if what Gray is selling has some substance, then it is a good sign for the fantasy prospects of teammate Charles Clay.

Chicago Bears

The Bears are apparently excited about rookie RB Jeremy Langford due to his speed and all-around ability. Expect a heavy workload for Matt Forte, but it’s always good to know a team’s main RB backup if the starter goes down. Langford could be it for the Bears ahead of Ka’Deem Carey and Jacquizz Rodgers.

Cleveland Browns

Some confirmation Isaiah Crowell is expected to be the starter, but reports are the Browns will ride the “hot hand” and Duke Johnson should be used as the primary third down receiving back.

Per Browns beat writer Nathan Zegura, WR Taylor Gabriel will push to be a starter in this offense, ahead of Brian Hartline, with Andrew Hawkins the third down and slot receiver.

Dallas Cowboys

RB Darren McFadden is expected to open training camp as the backup behind anticipated starter Joseph Randle. It should be a good training camp battle to determine the depth chart come Week 1.

WR Terrance Williams received positive reviews from his position coach, and looks like a good value at his current ADP. Second year player Devin Street is another name to keep in mind amongst Cowboys receivers. He worked with the starters in OTAs in place of an absent Dez Bryant.

Denver Broncos

Report: Cody Latimer is the third wide receiver. Fact: We already knew that.

Detroit Lions

The battle is on for … backup QB! Kellen Moore will challenge Dan Orlovsky for the right to back up starter Matthew Stafford.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Positive reports that RB T.J. Yeldon is picking up the offense quickly. The team appears keen to make him the lead back.

Miami Dolphins

WR DeVante Parker is on track for the active roster Week 1, per a Miami Herald report. He is recovering from foot surgery and appears likely to miss at least some of training camp and the preseason.

Minnesota Vikings

WR Jarius Wright is expected to play the slot in 3-WR sets, further reducing the value of Cordarelle Patterson.

New Orleans Saints

Free agent TE Jermaine Gresham was offered a contract, indicating low confidence in current options Josh Hill or Ben Watson. Gresham is also expected to visit the Arizona Cardinals.

New York Giants

The Giants indicate that training camp will provide clarity sorting out the roles for their backfield trio of Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen and Andre Williams.

Seattle Seahawks

There are positive vibes out of Seattle for rookie WR Tyler Lockett. Given the sketchy depth chart, it would be nice if someone established themselves as a reliable fantasy option at wide receiver on this team.

St. Louis Rams

WR Brian Quick is recovering from a pretty serious shoulder injury. He isn’t a lock to participate at the start of training camp, the ESPN report instead indicating Quick “could” be ready for Week 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rookie Kenny Bell is competing with Louis Murphy for the starting slot receiver spot in training camp.

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a name with some building optimism in the fantasy community. Positive reports from OTAs, but there are already a bunch of mouths to feed in this offense.

Tennessee Titans

WR Justin Hunter was arrested July 20 for assault. As a result we’ve added him to the “potential roster cut” list at the top of this post.

Washington Redskins

TE Niles Paul is expected to start if (when?) Jordan Reed struggles with injuries again this year.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Cleveland Browns Team Report

July 6, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

The Cleveland Browns ran the ball well as a team last year, but which player to bet on for fantasy is a tough call. Isaiah Crowell (upper-left) is the current front-runner, while rookie Duke Johnson (upper-right) is a better pass catcher, while Terrance West (bottom) logged the most carries last season.

The Cleveland Browns ran the ball well as a team last year, but which player to bet on for fantasy is a tough call. Isaiah Crowell (upper-left) is the current front-runner, while rookie Duke Johnson (upper-right) is a better pass catcher, while Terrance West (bottom) logged the most carries last season.

QB Josh McCown

Despite turning the ball over 18 times in 11 starts last season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Browns committed to McCown as their starting quarterback, signing him to a three-year, $14-million contract that contained $6.3-million in guarantees. This despite the fact they selected Johnny Manziel in the 1st round of last year’s NFL Draft. At 35 years of age and a career backup, McCown takes over an offense that struggled mightily throwing the ball in 2014, but showed some potential rushing. Josh Gordon will miss all of 2015 due to a suspension and tight end Jordan Cameron signed with the Miami Dolphins in the offseason, leaving McCown’s main receiving options as fellow newcomers Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline and Robert Housler, plus returning veteran Andrew Hawkins. The Browns will compete for worst passing game in the NFL this season.

QB Johnny Manziel

Having flamed out spectacularly as a rookie in 2014, Manziel entered a rehab facility in the offseason in order to straighten out his personal life and hopefully his professional life as well. After struggling in the preseason, Manziel was relegated to a backup role behind Brian Boyer before starting a couple of late season games which basically proved the Browns were correct in keeping him nailed to the bench. While Manziel’s efforts to fix the issues that ail him should be commended, the expectation is that he will enter 2015 behind Josh McCown, although it would certainly rate as a shock if the Browns don’t give him a couple of starts at some point. Either way, the truth is that Manziel lacks the weapons necessary to make him a viable fantasy option. He is only roster worthy in dynasty formats, and he has done nothing at this point to prove that he has a bright future in the league.

RB Isaiah Crowell

Undrafted coming out of college due to off the field concerns, Crowell emerged as the Browns leading rusher during the second half of his rookie season, carrying the ball 148 times for 607 yards and eight touchdowns. While that was a reasonably impressive feat, the truth is that Crowell lacks upside as a rusher and is limited in the passing game due to his poor route running and lack of ability in pass protection. Lacking speed, Crowell relies on his size and is a punishing runner who has proven to be a solid short yardage runner. However, he has little ability to make tacklers miss and will enter training camp in a dogfight with fellow second year player Terrance West and rookie Duke Johnson for playing time. Given the sorry state of the Browns offense, Crowell rates as a low end RB3 provided he opens the season as the team’s starting running back.

RB Duke Johnson

Although the Browns seem to have found a pair of solid rookie running backs last season in Isaiah Crowell and Terrence West, they went to the well again at the position in this year’s draft, drafting Miami-Florida product Duke Johnson in the 3rd round. Johnson has some serious agility skills, but in Cleveland he will likely operate as a change of pace, receiving back behind Crowell and West in an offense that will struggle to move the ball. At 5’9” and 206 pounds, Johnson doesn’t possess feature back size and Browns coaches have indicated they envision him in a Giovani Bernard type role, which clearly limits his upside. However, both Crowell and West struggled with their consistency as rookies so there is a chance that Johnson emerges from the pack to earn 12-15 touches per game. The odds of that are low so we consider Johnson little more than a late round flyer in redraft formats and a mid-tier prospect in dynasty formats.

RB Terrance West

Taken in the 3rd round of last year’s draft, West entered the season in a backup role to Ben Tate, took over as the team’s starter when Tate was released and finished the season splitting time with Isaiah Crowell. The 5’9”, 225 pound Towson State product was a bell cow type runner in college but his lack of consistency and refusal to simply take the yards that were there landed him in the doghouse at times as a rookie as his workload fluctuated widely from week to week. He will fight with Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson for touches this season and rates as the least intriguing option out of the trio of young running backs. Crowell is clearly a 1st and 2nd down downhill runner who looks to punish opposing defenders. Johnson possesses potentially game breaking abilities in the passing game and is an elusive when rushing the ball. The truth is that West is likely the team’s second best option behind Crowell in terms of rushing the ball and second best receiving option out of the backfield behind Johnson. However, he does possess some talent and given Crowell’s off the field issues, West holds some appeal in dynasty formats. In redraft formats, monitor West in the preseason to determine if he is worthy of a late round flyer.

WR Dwayne Bowe

Cut loose by the Kansas City Chiefs after stringing together three consecutive seasons where his production didn’t match his salary cap hit, Bowe was signed by the Browns in the offseason and joins a wide receiver depth chart that rates amongst the worst in the league. In Cleveland, Bowe will battle with the likes of Brian Hartline, Andrew Hawkins and Rob Housler for targets. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it is fair to ask whether, at 30 years of age (31 in September), Bowe has enough left in the tank to take advantage of the opportunity. Not helping matters is the Browns quarterback situation. Bowe failed to catch a single touchdown last year and has just 13 touchdowns in the last four seasons. While he has a decent change to emerge as a WR3 in PPR formats given his expected volume of targets, Bowe rates as a WR4-5 in standard scoring formats.

WR Brian Hartline

After posting back to back 1,000 yards seasons with the Dolphins in 2012 and 2013, Hartline crash landed last season, catching just 39 of his 63 targets for 474 yards and a pair of touchdowns as Miami made rookie Jarvis Landry a bigger part of their offense. Cut loose by the Dolphins, Hartline landed in Cleveland where he will enter training camp listed as a starter opposite Dwayne Bowe. At first glance, that sounds promising. However, we expect Hartline’s role and production with the Browns to mimic his 2014 season in Miami. Bowe figures to lead the team in targets with slot receiver Andrew Hawkins following close behind and tight end Rob Housler likely soaking up another 60-80 looks in the passing game. Hartline should only be rostered in the deepest leagues and even then we give him only a lukewarm endorsement.

WR Andrew Hawkins

In his first season in Cleveland, Hawkins emerged as Cleveland’s most productive receiver, posting career highs in receptions with 63 and yards with 824 while scoring two touchdowns. Unfortunately, it took him 112 targets to muster that production meaning his completion to target ratio was unimpressive for a slot receiver. With the Browns once again featuring one of the league’s least impressive depth charts at wide receiver, Hawkins should be line for plenty of targets once again in 2015. The issue is whether he will produce enough to have fantasy value. Last season is a pretty clear indictment of his fantasy prospects. Given his lack of touchdowns production, we rate Hawkins as nothing more than a late round flyer in standard scoring formats and a somewhat more intriguing option in PPR formats.

WR Vince Mayle

While several teams in the league were stocking their wide receiver depth charts based on the abundance of receiving talent found in the last two rookie drafts, the Browns waited until the 4th round of this year’s draft to select Vince Mayle. In Mayle, the Browns gain a possession receiver who lacks the deep speed to threaten defenses and that limits his upside. That being said, only declining veterans Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline stand in Mayle’s way of earning a spot in the starting lineup, given that Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel lack the size to be consistent weapons on the outside. Mayle rates as a low end dynasty prospect and waiver wire material in redraft formats.

WR Travis Benjamin

A 2012 4th round pick, Benjamin finally showed some playmaking ability in 2014, posting a career year with 37 receptions for 629 yards and a touchdown. While the average yards per reception of 17.0 was impressive, his inability to post more than one touchdown was noteworthy as was his less than impressive completion to target rate of 50.7%. It is his lack of efficiency as a diminutive player best used out of the slot that figures to relegate him to a minor role going forward. In truth, Benjamin benefited from circumstance in 2014 as injuries and suspensions ravaged the Browns receivers. We expect Benjamin to enter the season ranked 4th on the depth chart and of little value to fantasy owners.

WR Josh Gordon

Out for the year, folks. Worth a stash in dynasty leagues although there is little evidence to support the narrative that Gordon is getting his life back on track.

TE Robert Housler

After four non-descript seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, Housler joins the Browns in 2015 where he has essentially been handed the starting position at tight end left open when Jordan Cameron signed with Miami in the offseason. Let’s consider that somewhat odd given that he caught nine of 17 targets for 129 yards in his final season in Arizona although it is also fair to note that he was miscast in Bruce Arians’ offense which doesn’t feature the tight end position. In Cleveland, Housler will compete for targets with the likes of Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins which gives him a chance for decent production in 2015. However, the quarterback situation and Housler’s inability to produce on a consistent basis four years into his career render him little more than a TE2, although his opportunity does make him a little more intriguing than some of the other options available at that point in fantasy drafts.

Also see: Cleveland Browns IDP Team Report | Baltimore Ravens Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC North

June 10, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Baltimore Ravens

  • “Quarterback Whisperer” Marc Trestman is the Ravens new OC, which one would assume means an uptick for QB Joe Flacco and RB Justin Forsett in the passing game. The problem with boosting Flacco is he’s already thrown pass attempts in excess of former Trestman protégé Jay Cutler in recent years, and his supporting cast consists of two rookies and a very late bloomer or journeyman RB amongst his top four pass catchers. You can be bullish about Flacco, but he’s still considered just a fringe starter or reliable backup.
  • We’ve currently got Forsett in line with his catches last season, which should arguably go up. Matt Forte caught 74 and 102 receptions in his two seasons under Trestman. However, Forsett is not Forte. Forsett bounced around playing for four different teams through six seasons before finally breaking out last year. That’s a red flag, or at least a caution. Lorenzo Taliaferro wasn’t particularly impressive as a rookie, so the team added Javorius Allen via the NFL Draft. How effective these guys are is the main threat to Forsett’s workload.
  • Steve Smith started off hot last season with four touchdowns, four 100-yard games in the first six weeks. Then there was a noticeable fade. Does he have another 1,000-yard season in him? Possible given the opportunity, but not great odds.
  • The Ravens need at least one of rookies Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams (preferably both) to make an immediate impact. The team is optimistic Dennis Pitta will play this season but it looks 50-50 at best right now.

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Fantasy players don’t like Andy Dalton. He failed to crack 3,400 yards or 20 TD passing last season, but I still had to double check why (at the time) his 12-team ADP was n/a on our initial online cheatsheets. It’s a running team. The Bengals would be quite content to keep him under 500 pass attempts.
  • Giovani Bernard looked like he might be the next Jamaal Charles-esque all-purpose back after his rookie season in 2013. Then Jeremy Hill came to town and all bets are off. Hill overtook Bernard producing over 1,300 yards on 222 carries and 27 receptions. Bernard missed a few games, still chipped in over 1,000 yards on over 200 touches, but the coaching staff showed a lot more confidence in Hill. Hills’ yards-per-carry is half a yard better. He’s the guy to own. Bernard only if he drops too far to present good value.
  • One of the best receivers in the game is A.J. Green, but the run heavy philosophy begets a slight downgrade from Green’s 3-year weighted average. Mohamed Sanu filled in pretty well when Green was out and Marvin Jones was lost for the season. Now Sanu and Jones will challenge each other for snaps. Jones wins, if healthy.
  • Veteran Jermaine Gresham is a free agent still on the market, leaving Tyler Eifert who has done little in his NFL career, and rookie Tyler Kroft. Eifert is an end-game flier if you need a second TE, but more than likely this position on the Bengals is a fantasy wasteland. Surprising, since the knock on Dalton is his deep ball.

Cleveland Browns

  • Our projections need some adjustment here. Since initially prepping these, media reports Josh McCown is the clear cut starter and Johnny Manziel is not really in the discussion. Makes sense. Neither are worth drafting.
  • The running back position was tough to figure out last season. It isn’t any clearer this season, and potentially worse, since last year we could write-off Ben Tate pretty early on. This year, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson are all in the picture for carries. We’ve got it Crow-West-Johnson, but none with enough carries to get to 1,000 yards. Losing OC Kyle Shanahan does not help matters.
  • Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline arrive to take over the top two receiver spots. Bowe’s 1,000 yard seasons are a distant memory. Can you believe he caught 15 TD in 2010? This is a dismal depth chart. Robert Housler is interesting to the extent if he does perform for fantasy, we get to see how many pundits put their hand up and say, “see, called it” [three years ago].

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in scoring, within 10 points of 3rd. No significant losses and his receivers are more than likely better. Note he’s getting drafted 8th to 9th QB off the board.
  • Le’Veon Bell is currently suspended the first three games of the season, and that is a bummer. He blew past 350 touches last season. The forced time off scales him back to around 300. Discount accordingly but not too much because it is his points-per-game that matter. Hopefully rust is short lived once he’s back in late September. DeAngelo Williams backs up Bell and has some value knowing he will start three games.
  • Big Ben and Antonio Brown are in a zone. I’ve seen Brown go first WR off the board in some early drafts, and I can’t knock it. Best bet to top 100 receptions this season. Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton are a young, exciting pair, particularly Bryant, but not ready to cut into Brown’s production. Bryant might be a tough decision to start each week on your fantasy team, but he didn’t play the first six weeks last season and then proceeded to score in 7 of 11 games played. Impressive.
  • Some pegged the Steelers to draft a TE replacement for Heath Miller. Not yet. A blah pick but provides an acceptable return if you are last to draft the position.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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