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MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups to Stack / Avoid Thursday June 21

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Stack #1
Rockies
·
Stack #2
Cardinals
·
Stack #3
Pirates

** Edited at 1:10pm EDT to remove the Oakland A’s @ Chicago White Sox postponed game **

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.

My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

How to Read the Charts
The Rockies are facing a LHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.55 FanDuel and 1.95 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is Steven Matz NYM and he is currently allowing 100% more ppa in FanDuel and 99% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.096 on FanDuel and 1.599 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.55 x 100% in FanDuel and 1.95 x 99% in DraftKings.

FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.096 through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa
Stack COL LHP at home 2.55 Steven Matz NYM 100% 2.54
Stack STL LHP on road 2.43 Brent Suter MIL 104% 2.53
Stack PIT RHP at home 2.26 Zack Godley ARI 111% 2.51
Stack WSN RHP at home 2.04 Kevin Gausman BAL 110% 2.24
Stack LAA RHP at home 2.11 Aaron Sanchez TOR 102% 2.15
— — — — — — —
Avoid MIL RHP at home 2.24 Carlos Martinez STL 78% 1.74
Avoid SEA RHP on road 2.14 Luis Severino NYY 66% 1.41
Avoid BAL RHP on road 1.83 Max Scherzer WSN 71% 1.30

DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.599 through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa
Stack COL LHP at home 1.95 Steven Matz NYM 99% 1.92
Stack STL LHP on road 1.81 Brent Suter MIL 106% 1.92
Stack PIT RHP at home 1.72 Zack Godley ARI 110% 1.88
Stack WSN RHP at home 1.55 Kevin Gausman BAL 112% 1.73
Stack LAA RHP at home 1.61 Aaron Sanchez TOR 100% 1.62
— — — — — — —
Avoid MIL RHP at home 1.70 Carlos Martinez STL 77% 1.31
Avoid SEA RHP on road 1.63 Luis Severino NYY 68% 1.10
Avoid BAL RHP on road 1.40 Max Scherzer WSN 72% 1.01

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 11 – McCarthy, Suter, Nova

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Brandon McCarthy, Atlanta Braves

Our Chris Spencer is taking a short break so Rick is stepping in to help us find good streaming starting pitchers for week 11. Atlanta Braves Brandon McCarthy made the list, starting Thursday against the San Diego Padres.

How did that ‘70’s hit go?

“Ooooohhhh, stream weaver, I believe you can get me through the night.”

That is the theme song to my dynasty fantasy baseball team this season as I’ve seen Carlos Martinez, Alex Perez, Masahiro Tanaka, Danny Salazar and Luiz Gohara all spend time (or are currently) on the DL.

When I drafted these five in the first fifteen rounds of my 20-team dynasty league last fall, I thought I might need a month for Reyes and Salazar to heal and then be back and then I’d have a very good rotation. Two months into the season, I am scrambling every week to find a few decent arms with favorable matchups that I can plug and play.

Like my team’s pitching, this week’s streaming starting pitchers are pretty thin on good bets. You can always count on a chance for a win against the weak offenses of Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles, but since they play each other this weekend, both teams may go scoreless in what can only result in a real snoozefest. Pitching against the Texas Rangers or San Diego Padres usually results in a ton of strikeouts, as these two lead MLB in the Go Sit Down category.

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 11

Here are a few possible gems to get you through each night:

Dereck Rodriguez, SF

Let’s start this show with some Dereck Rodriguez. He is better than the 5.25 ERA he sports because he has been unlucky on batted balls in play and has issued a few too many walks, but he strikes out a batter per inning and is stingy giving up long balls. Add in the fact that he draws the anemic Marlins on Thursday and you have a formal invitation to buy yourself a Rodriguez for the week.

Brandon McCarthy, ATL

Like Rodriguez, Atlanta Braves’ Brandon McCarthy has pitched better than his ERA suggests. A high BABIP and a few too many dingers has hurt him this season. The Braves are a hot-hitting club and are facing the light-hitting Padres on Thursday. That should get you a handful of K’s, solid ratios, and maybe a win. Go getcha some McCarthy.

Brent Suter, MIL

Milwaukee Brewers’ Brent Suter has pitched well this season but doesn’t get much fantasy love. He has six wins and a 7.77 K/9, so what’s not to like about that? Well, his BB/9 is almost two and his HR/9 is over one and a half, so he certainly isn’t dominant. Friday’s home matchup against the weak-hitting Philadelphia Phillies should do him well so start your weekend with a heaping helping of Suter.

Ivan Nova, PIT

Looking at it from year to year, Ivan Nova’s career reminds me of Forest Gump’s box of chocolates. His numbers are very solid across the board with 7.35K/9, 1.60 BB/9, 52.3 GB% and he pitches for a team with an above average offense, which should turn you on. Cincinnati struggles against right handed pitching and the Reds are coming into Pittsburgh for a Saturday tilt. All this is setting Nova up to be the shrimp boat captain on Saturday.

Clay Buchholz, ARI

Arizona Diamondbacks’ Clay Buchholz has had a pretty good start to the season. That 1.88 ERA he’s serving up isn’t going to last, but he is getting hitters out. He’s striking out 7.88/9 and walking a paltry 1.13/9. Those are some pretty tasty numbers and even better when you can throw the humidor ball, which is good for the ratios. The New York Mets come for Sunday supper and Buchholz is going to be carving that turkey.

As a streamer, I picked up Jordan Zimmermann in late April. Sometimes you stumble on a player who is putting it together and you grab them at the right time and hold. He wasn’t vintage Zimmermann from the first half of this decade, but he was striking batters out and pitching respectably when he could keep the ball in the park.

Don’t be afraid to hold on to that streamer when the peripherals say he’s pitching well and is likely to continue that trend. Zimmermann was looking like that good-find guy until the injury and then the rehab start where he got torched by a bunch of triple-A hitters. Which leads to the last bit of wisdom found in another ‘70’s hit,

“You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away and know when to run.”

Straight Cheese – Week 3 Streaming Starting Pitchers Zimmermann, Newcomb

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Jordan Zimmermann

Chris did very well with his Straight Cheese streaming starting pitchers last week, so lets see what he can do for an encore. Detroit Tigers Jordan Zimmermann vs. Baltimore Orioles on Thursday tops the list.

Welcome back to another edition of Straight Cheese, a resource for streaming starting pitchers for your fantasy baseball team.

This is the place where you come to get the scoop on less than desirable, questionably talented, hardly owned starting pitchers that you can use for a spot start to get those all-important necessary counting stats without drop-kicking your ratio stats into submission.

Before we dive into the dumpster looking for junk pitchers we can use this weekend, I want to evaluate my picks from last week.

Week 2 Review

Name Date GS IP ER H BB K Dec ERA WHIP
Tyson Ross 4/13 vs. SF 1.0 6 0 7 1 5 W 0.00 1.33
Clayton Richard 4/14 vs. SF 1.0 5 4 7 3 3 – 7.20 2.00
Joey Lucchesi 4/15 vs. SF 1.0 6 1 5 0 9 W 1.50 0.83
Mike Foltynewicz 4/17 vs. PHI 1.0 6 1 4 4 8 – 1.50 1.33
Week 2 Total   4.0 23 6 23 8 25 2-0 2.348 1.348

Not bad, not bad at all. Three out of four.

I also mentioned Mike Minor @ TB, Brandon McCarthy vs. PHI and Anibal Sanchez vs. PHI last week as solid streaming options but their starts got moved. Minor missed the Tampa Bay Rays and is scheduled to face Seattle Mariners at home on April 20. McCarthy will still face the Phillies, now scheduled April 18. Sanchez is scheduled for a home start to the New York Mets on April 19.

I’ve learned a lesson on not recommending pitchers that far into the future, so I will keep the focus in future articles to the upcoming weekend. I will keep a running tally of my picks throughout the season.

Streaming Starting Pitchers – Week 3 Picks

Alright, with that stuff out of the way we can take a look at our streaming starting pitchers options for the upcoming weekend. Here are six pitchers (less than 50% owned ) that I’m recommending streaming.

Ownership info from Yahoo! (Y) and ESPN (E) and all 2018 stats are through Monday, April 16. This is important because we’re still dealing with small sample sizes that by the time you’re reading this the 2018 numbers may have changed.

RHP Jordan Zimmermann, DET
Owned Y3%/E3% · vs. Baltimore Orioles – Thursday, April 19th

A few weeks ago I wrote about Zimmermann’s luck… or lack thereof. In that piece I advised you to keep an eye on him as someone that could potentially become useful. I mentioned to pick your spots with him and, now is the time.

Don’t let his current 8.18 ERA and 1.50 WHIP scare you off. He has a 3.98 xFIP, 9.00 K/9, 1.64 BB/9 and hasn’t allowed a homerun in 11 innings pitched (3 starts). His BABIP sits at .429 (yikes!) at the moment. He could really use some good luck. Enter the Orioles. Baltimore comes into Detroit sporting a .283 wOBA (25th) and 31.6 K% (29th) in 282 PA vs. RHP on the road. Spots don’t get much better to pick than this.

LHP Sean Newcomb, ATL
Owned Y25%/E17% · vs. New York Mets – Friday, April 20th

Do you like strikeouts? Of course you do. Newcomb can get you strikeouts. Therefore, you like Newcomb. Over his first 3 starts (15 2/3 innings) he has a 4.02 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 22 strikeouts (12.64 K/9) and 8 walks (4.54 BB/9). Effectively wild, right? Well, dig a little deeper and you’ll see his 2.87 xFIP with a .359 BABIP. This kid is good if a bit unlucky so far.

On Friday he faces off against Noah Syndergaard, but don’t let that scare you. The Mets may be 6-0 on the road but they don’t hit like it. Their road wOBA is .306 (16th) and their road strikeout rate is 26.9% (25th). If you take those a step further and look at when they face southpaws you’ll see that their wOBA is only .239 (27th) and strikeout rate is 31.8% (29th) in 118 PA. I really like the spot Newcomb is in here.

LHP Andrew Heaney, LAA
Owned Y4%/E3% · vs. San Francisco Giants – Friday, April 20th

Last week I wrote about picking on the Giants when they are on the road and it worked out quite well (see chart at top of this page). Well, they are on the road again this weekend. Want to guess what I am going to tell you to do?

In 162 PA, San Francisco has a .254 wOBA (25th) and a 24.7 K% (20th) vs. LHP on the road. That is news you can use. Why am I recommending that you stream Heaney after just one unspectacular start at Kansas City last Friday? Strikeouts. He hasn’t seen much MLB action since 2016, but his K/9 is 11.3 and his BB/9 is 2.8 in those 32 2/3 innings. Call it a hunch but I think Heaney will do alright in this matchup. Make no mistake, this is more of a pick on the Giants than it is an endorsement of Heaney’s skills.

RHP Jhoulys Chacin, MIL
Owned Y7%/E4% · vs. Miami Marlins – Friday, April 20th

Stop me if you’ve heard this before… the Marlins are somewhere between awful and depressing. You can get caught up in the hyperbole of how Jeter is ruining the franchise or you can simply take it for what it is: a gift.

On the road, the Marlins are a team you need to pick on until they show otherwise. Currently they have a wOBA of .207 (30th out of 30 MLB teams!) and a K% of 32.4% (also 30th) when away from the beaches of Miami.

If that doesn’t put a hop in your step then let me tell you that they are even worse against RHP! Yeah, vs. RHP on the road they have a wOBA of .192 (30th) and a strikeout rate of 34.4% (30th aka Dead Last). Now, Chacin and his 5.60 ERA, 1.92 WHIP and 11 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings is not the guy I would ultimately want to be in this situation but he is taking the mound and, most importantly, the Marlins stink.

LHP Brent Suter, MIL
Owned Y9%/E5% · vs. Miami Marlins – Saturday, April 21st

See Chacin above. But, I will warn you that the Marlins are “better” vs. lefties. They only have 17 PA on the road vs. LHP this season so here are their stats vs. LHP overall: .293 wOBA (21st) and 19.1 K% (8th) in 191 PA. Suter isn’t setting the world on fire with his 4.87 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 15 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings. But, it bears repeating: the Marlins stink.

RHP Jose Urena, MIA
Owned Y11%/E8% · @ Milwaukee Brewers – Saturday, April 21st

Yeah, I know. I’m not sure of it either. How can I possibly be saying that you should consider streaming a Marlins pitcher after saying they stink… twice?!? I can say it because although Marlins pitchers don’t get the luxury of facing Marlins batters they do get to face the free swinging Brewers. In Miller Park, the Brewers have a .272 wOBA (28th) and 30.4 K% (30th) when facing RHP. With a 5.57 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 18 strikeouts in 21 innings I can hardly believe he is owned in 11% of Yahoo leagues. I’m not telling you to own him but I am telling you that you could borrow him for this start on Saturday. Just don’t forget to keep your receipt so you can return him back to the waiver wire on Monday!

Until next week!