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Preseason Week 1 Fantasy Football News and Notes

August 13, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Fantasy players couldn't wait for TE Eric Ebron to get drafted last season to showcase his skills in the NFL. After a disappointing rookie season, now he's almost a forgotten man.

Fantasy players couldn’t wait for TE Eric Ebron to get drafted last season to showcase his skills in the NFL. After a disappointing rookie season, now he’s almost a forgotten man.

Here is a recap of key NFL news and notes since our last update a week ago, and to get us ready for Week 1 of preseason games. These items will factor into our latest projections and rankings changes. The starters shouldn’t play a lot in this opening week of preseason, but regardless, fingers crossed no major injuries!

Free Agents of Interest

RB Chris Johnson
RB Pierre Thomas
RB Ray Rice

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals apparently made a contract offer to free agent RB Chris Johnson. They’ve got injuries in the backfield, so this might be a lets get through the preseason signing (if he agrees to sign), or it could be more significant, an indication the team is not that happy with or confident in Andre Ellington?

Buffalo Bills

Karlos Williams is a new name to keep some tabs on out of the Bills backfield. Fred Jackson is banged up and Williams apparently passed Bryce Brown on the depth chart. The Bills are expected to run a lot, and you’ll want to know next man up if Shady isn’t up to that much workload.

Dallas Cowboys

RB Joseph Randle seems more secure in the starting spot than he did a couple of weeks ago, as he’s impressed while Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar are injured. If Randle doesn’t play much in the preseason take it as a good sign the team is saving him for the carries that matter.

Detroit Lions

TE Eric Ebron is getting positive reports out of camp. We’ll see how active he is in the Lions preseason games, but it is interesting to note how excited fantasy players were about this guy as a rookie, and how completely disinterested they are now. I haven’t drafted him yet – not a lot of leagues will there be a need to draft a second or third TE, which is where he’s getting drafted – but smells like a value pick with nice upside potential.

New York Giants

Odell Beckham Jr. (hamstring) is expected to play in the Giants first preseason game, while Victor Cruz (patellar tendon) did more work in a scrimmage versus the Cincinnati Bengals that initially expected, and Rueben Randle (knee tendonitis) is hobbled missing practice and might play in the first preseason game. No projection changes, but a quick update of these key receivers.

New York Jets

A week after we upgrade Geno Smith based on positive reports out of training camp, he gets his jaw broken in the locker room from the fist of a previously unknown linebacker. Ryan Fitzpatrick now takes the season projections and Smith drops down in the rankings to our unranked but still on the fantasy radar section.

Philadelphia Eagles

TE Zach Ertz received a compliment for improved blocking recently, but Brent Celek is still around and more than likely the better of the two, which could once again limit snaps for Ertz. I only really bring this up because I drafted Ertz earlier this week and feel like I reached a bit on him. I took him at TE7 at the top of the 9th round. Buyer’s remorse, I would have been better served going RB or WR there and grabbing Delanie Walker (drafted TE10, bottom of 11th) or Jason Witten (TE11, bottom of 12th). In fact, I did take Witten and wonder now if he’s going to start for me more than Ertz.

Pittsburgh Steelers

K Shaun Suisham is done for the year with a torn ACL from last week’s Hall of Fame game. Former New Orleans Saints K Garrett Hartley was signed. If you are drafting early, especially in a draft-only (no waivers, no roster moves) league, double-check the job security of your targeted kicker before taking one.

St. Louis Rams

On the heels of a handful of “he’s progressing well” reports, the latest on RB Todd Gurley is he won’t be active to start the season, and Tre Mason likely to open the season as their unrivaled starter. This narrative makes a lot more sense given the severity and timing of Gurley’s injury and required rehab. We’ve got them projected with identical carries and we’ll stick with that. Not keen on drafting either guy really. Gurley is going way too high. This news might cool it off a bit, but he’ll continue to go too high for us.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Philadelphia Eagles Team Report

June 12, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

It is a crowded backfield on the Philadelphia Eagles with former-Cowboy DeMarco Murray and former-Charger Ryan Mathews coming to town. It will be very tough for Murray to duplicate his 2014 numbers, but he's still a solid 1st round pick in fantasy football drafts.

It is a crowded backfield on the Philadelphia Eagles with former-Cowboy DeMarco Murray and former-Charger Ryan Mathews coming to town. It will be very tough for Murray to duplicate his 2014 numbers, but he’s still a solid 1st round pick in fantasy football drafts.

QB Sam Bradford

Heading into 2015, Bradford is entering what seems like his third consecutive make or break year. Just this time it’s in Philadelphia as an Eagle. Here’s to hoping that he leaves his lengthy injury history (25 missed games over the past two years and 31 missed games over his five-year career) behind in St. Louis. That seems like wishful thinking but if Bradford somehow stays upright for 16 games, he has the potential to top 4,500 passing yards with between 25 and 30 touchdowns and that is mid-tier QB1 territory. Of course, he will need to enter the season fully recovered from the ACL tears that ended both his 2013 and 2014 seasons. A mobile quarterback coming out of Oklahoma, Bradford will likely suffer a loss of agility as a result of his injuries but he is a smart passer who has shown an ability to avoid turnovers and that should serve him well in Philadelphia. However, he will have to increase his risk appetite somewhat in order to fit into head coach Chip Kelly’s offensive system. While the Eagles have lost some key playmakers over the past two seasons, their offensive weapons remain more impressive that what Bradford worked with during his days as a Ram. He rates as a mid to lower tier QB2 with major upside that can only happen if he is somehow able to stay healthy for 16 games.

RB DeMarco Murray

After posting league highs with 1,845 rushing yards and 2,261 total yards behind the Cowboys solid offensive line in 2014, Murray takes his talents to Philadelphia for the 2015 season. While Murray has proven to be one of the league’s most dynamic running backs over the past two seasons, he faces an uncertain future as an Eagle for several reasons. First off, their offensive line might be solid but it doesn’t compare to the line Murray ran behind in Dallas. Second, Murray will fight with Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles for touches, a pair of players far superior to Murray’s backups last season in Dallas. Third, it is premature to completely write off his history of injuries. Fourth, players coming off 450 touch seasons have not fared well in the following season. Add it all up and Murray lands as a mid to lower RB1 in 2015.

RB Ryan Mathews

Mathews goes from being the top dog in San Diego’s offense (when healthy, at least) to a reserve role in Philadelphia behind DeMarco Murray. In fact, he may not out-produce Darren Sproles, who figures to handle the majority of the pass catching out of the Eagles backfield. While the party line is that Murray and Matthews will split the workload on obvious rushing downs, it’s worth noting that Murray received a five-year, $42-million contract while the Eagles are paying Mathews $11.5-million over three years. Although Mathews should earn close to 10 touches per game in Philly’s offense, he likely won’t handle the goal line duties, rendering him little more than a low end flex option barring a Murray injury. He does rate as a key handcuff for Murray owners.

RB Darren Sproles

After a pair of solid fantasy seasons in 2011 and 2012, Sproles has seen his fantasy value decline over the past two years as he failed to top 1,000 total yards in either 2013 or 2014. Last season, he averaged 7.1 PPG but was aided by a career-high six rushing touchdowns (his previous high was three). More noteworthy were his yardage total of 716 and his touches of 97, lowest since the 2009 season. At 32 years of age on opening day, Sproles isn’t getting any younger and the competition for touches in the Eagles backfield is getting tougher due to the presence of DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. Sproles isn’t worth drafting in standard scoring leagues and rates as a low end flex option in PPR formats.

WR Jordan Matthews

In 2013, DeSean Jackson posted career highs in receptions, yards and touchdowns as the Eagles leading wide receiver. In 2014, Jeremy Maclin posted career highs in receptions, yards and touchdowns as the Eagles leading wide receiver. In 2015, Jordan Matthews is projected to be the Eagles leading wide receiver. It’s not hard to connect the dots on this one, folks. Matthews is in line for close to 140 targets, over 80 receptions, between 1,100 and 1,300 yards and 8-10 touchdowns. The 6’3″, 209 pound Vanderbilt product possesses solid speed and uses his size well, traits that helped propel him to a 67 reception, 872 yard, eight touchdown season as a rookie. We have little doubt regarding his ability to handle a leading role in 2015. Provided the quarterback situation holds up, consider Matthews a high end WR2 with upside and an outstanding dynasty league prospect.

WR Nelson Agholor

Taken by the Eagles in the 1st round of this year’s draft, Agholor possesses solid yet not outstanding speed and lacks ideal size at 6’1″ and 190 pounds. In Philadelphia, he will compete with veteran journeyman Riley Cooper and 2nd year player Josh Huff for a spot in the starting line-up. While Agholor can line up outside, he often lined up in the slot at USC, where Jordan Matthews played the majority of his snaps last year for the Eagles. Given Matthews heavy workload during his rookie season, we don’t foresee head coach Chip Kelly having any reservations about handing Agholor a key role as a rookie. However, Kelly drafted Cooper for his blocking ability, Matthews is the team’s leading wide receiver and the team is clearly going to lean heavily on its trio of outstanding running backs. That limits Agholor’s upside during his rookie season. We consider him a WR5 in redraft formats and an excellent dynasty league prospect.

WR Riley Cooper

After a breakout season in 2013 when he caught 47 passes for 835 yards and eight touchdowns (all career highs which earned him a five-year, $25-million contract), Cooper crash landed last year, catching 55 passes for 577 yards and just three touchdowns. Truth be told, Cooper is a marginal talent who would be relegated to a backup role in most offenses but he earns plenty of snaps in Philadelphia’s heavily run based offense due to his blocking ability. Since we expect another 500-600 yards season with 4-5 touchdowns, don’t bother looking Cooper’s way on draft day.

WR Josh Huff

Eagles coach Chip Kelly selected Josh Huff from his alma mater in the 3rd round of last year’s NFL Draft and Huff proceeded to disappoint as a rookie, catching just eight of his 18 targets for 98 yards. Possessing good but not outstanding speed and less than ideal size at 5’11” and 206 pounds, Huff will attempt to earn a starting role in his sophomore season, a possibility only due to the departure of Jeremy Maclin. However, we expect Riley Cooper and Nelson Agholor to earn the starting spot opposite Jordan Matthews, with Huff once again relegated to a minor role. He is worth monitoring in the preseason but unless Huff shows some playmaking ability, he is best left on the waiver wire.

WR Miles Austin

Austin produced a bit of a bounce back season in his only year in Cleveland, catching 47 passes for 568 yards and a pair of scores in 12 games before finishing the season on injured reserve. While subpar quarterback play contributed to his marginal production, the truth is that Austin is little more than a backup at this point in his career with injuries having robbed him of his explosiveness. Signed by the Eagles in the offseason, he figures to enter training camp 5th on the depth chart although it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Riley Cooper, rookie 1st round pick Nelson Agholor and disappointing 2nd year player Josh Huff struggle somewhat in 2015. Consider Austin as a potential waiver wire pickup if he somehow leapfrogs his way into the Eagles starting line-up.

TE Zach Ertz

Entering his 2nd season in the league last year, Ertz generated a fair amount of buzz in the fantasy community but he failed to produce TE1 production, finishing the season as the 13th ranked tight end despite relegating Brent Celek to a backup role. While Ertz’s role in Chip Kelly’s offense helped generate the buzz, it was Kelly’s strong reliance on running the football coupled with Brent Celek’s superior blocking ability that helped keep Ertz nailed to the bench far more than most expected entering the season. His overall numbers looked decent with 58 receptions for 702 yards and three touchdowns but he was targeted more than six times in just two games and caught 15 of his receptions in one week. Since Celek remains on the roster to handle the bulk of the blocking duties, we don’t expect a breakout season from Ertz, although his skill set as well as the departure of Jeremy Maclin certainly makes it possible. Consider him a lower tier TE1 with a high ceiling and a high floor.

Also see: Philadelphia Eagles IDP Team Report | Washington Redskins

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Football Player Projections, Rankings and Commentary

June 11, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy (25) runs through the Chicago Bears defense for a touchdown in the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The Eagles defeated the Bears, 54-11. December 22, 2013; Photographer: Brian Cassella/Zuma Press/Icon SMI

Whether Nick Foles can produce like he did last season is a big question for fantasy owners. LeSean McCoy leaves zero doubt he is a Top 3 RB, and overall pick in most leagues. Photo: Brian Cassella

Player Tier · Rank Passing Rushing Receiving FPts
QB N. Foles
2 · 5th
340-555-4,200 34 TD 12 INT
50-180 2 TD
–
376.0
RB L. McCoy
1 · 2nd –
315-1,550 10 TD
38-375 3 TD
270.5
RB D. Sproles
6 · 37th –
50-245 2 TD
45-425 2 TD
91.0
RB C. Polk
NR –
40-235 2 TD
2-10 0 TD
36.5
WR J. Maclin
4 · 21st – –
65-900 7 TD
132.0
WR R. Cooper
7 · 43rd – –
50-700 6 TD
106.0
WR J. Matthews
8 · 49th – –
50-650 4 TD
89.0
WR D. Johnson
NR – –
8-100 1 TD
16.0
WR J. Huff
NR – – – –
TE Z. Ertz
3 · 9th – –
55-695 7 TD
111.5
TE B. Celek
NR – –
20-250 3 TD
43.0
TE J. Casey
NR – – – –

Data as of June 26 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Nick Foles

Count me amongst those that love a feel good story. And among those that doesn’t always think they can be repeated. Foles was an absolute revelation for the Eagles in 2013, stealing the starting job away from Michael Vick on his way to 2,891 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and two interceptions as he played the majority of the team’s snaps in 11 games. He even added 225 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Truth be told, very few NFL quarterbacks ever approach that type of production and it would be foolhardy to expect Foles to replicate his performance once again in 2014. Simply put, a drop off is to be expected but don’t jump to the conclusion that Foles won’t be a huge benefit to your fantasy team. Even with the loss of DeSean Jackson, the Eagles possess a plethora of solid options at the offensive skill positions to go along with a solid offensive line. Expect the Eagles to once again rank amongst the league’s top offensive teams with Foles leading the way. Consider him a top five fantasy quarterback in all formats and an outstanding addition to your dynasty squad.

RB LeSean McCoy

With Chip Kelly on board, McCoy produced the finest season of his five year career, setting career highs in rushing yards with 1,607 and total yards with 2,147. Heading into 2014, the trade of Bryce Brown to the Bills together with the acquisition of Darren Sproles from New Orleans clouds McCoy’s fantasy outlook somewhat. At first glance, you could jump to the conclusion that the addition of Sproles, who has averaged 77.3 receptions per season over the past three years, will put a major dent into McCoy’s production in the passing game. However, McCoy is no slouch himself as a receiver out of the backfield with 272 career receptions and, at this point in time, is clearly a more dynamic threat than Sproles. While Sproles may eat into McCoy’s workload in the passing game, another 40 reception season seems to be in the cards to go along with close to 350 touches and over 100 total yards per game. That spells top three status at running back and at a fairly low risk given his ability to remain healthy.

RB Darren Sproles

A revelation for the Saints during his first year with the team in 2011, Sproles saw his production decrease in each of the last two seasons, leading to his trade this past offseason to the Eagles. While his production as a receiver remained first rate in 2013 with 71 receptions for 604 yards and a pair of scores, his ability to generate yards on the ground declined as did his ability to generate big plays. His total touchdowns declined from eight in 2012 to four last season. In Philadelphia, Sproles will backup LeSean McCoy, a player who has averaged 54.4 receptions during his first five years in the league. Another worrisome consideration for Sproles’ fantasy value is that he will no longer play half of his games in the cozy confines of the Superdome. While Sproles may contribute the odd big game in 2014, we don’t like his chances of returning to RB2 status in standard leagues. Consider him a low end RB3 in PPR formats.

RB Chris Polk

It was an Even Steven type of offseason for Polk. On the plus side, Bryce Brown was shipped off to Buffalo. On the down side, the Eagles traded for Darren Sproles and reports surfaced in April that Polk underwent major shoulder surgery. Draftniks may recall that a degenerative shoulder condition kept Polk from being taken in the 2012 draft. How does this all shake out? Pretty favorably since Polk figures to take over as the Eagles bell cow back if injury were to strike starter LeSean McCoy. Of course, it is worth noting that McCoy has missed just six games during his five year career. Polk rates as a decent late round flier given that he was productive in a limited role last season (159 yards and three touchdowns on 15 touches) and the reliance the Eagles place on their rushing attack.

WR Jeremy Maclin

With the release of DeSean Jackson, it appears the Eagles are intent on having Maclin assume his role in their high powered offense. Count us among those skeptical that Maclin will be able to offset the loss of DJax. Maclin suffered a torn ACL that caused him to miss the entire 2013 season and he failed to top 1,000 receiving yards during his first four years in the league. After a solid rookie season with 55 receptions for 762 yards and four touchdowns, Maclin improved in 2010, catching 70 balls for 964 yards and 10 touchdowns. However, he regressed in 2011 and 2012, failing to top 70 receptions or 900 receiving yards while scoring 12 touchdowns. Maclin never possessed DJax’s speed and, coming off his second torn ACL, he may struggle to match his previous speed. While we love the Eagles offense, we expect them to spread it around more in 2014. Given Maclin’s lack of previous production, his injury history and his lack of speed, we rate him as a low end WR2.

WR Riley Cooper

On the one hand, you have to hand it to Riley Cooper. He overcame his own self-inflicted adversity to have a career year in 2013, catching 47 passes for 835 yards and eight touchdowns (all career highs) and earning himself a five-year, $25-million contract. During his first three years in the league, he caught 46 passes for 679 yards and five touchdowns. On the flip side, it all came together for Cooper as a result of Jeremy Maclin suffering a season-ending injury in the preseason, DeSean Jackson having a career year which allowed Cooper to usually play against single coverage and quarterback Nick Foles putting together a Pro Bowl quality season. While Cooper’s spot in the starting line up seems assured due to Jackson’s release, his departure will force Cooper to face tougher coverage. If it sounds like we’re not really high on Cooper’s fantasy prospects, then you are correctly reading between the lines. We’re not. Of his 133.3 fantasy points, 73.9 came in three games. In his other 13 regular season games, Cooper averaged a paltry 4.6 PPG. That makes him a low end WR4, albeit one who could surprise.

WR Jordan Matthews

Taken in the 2nd round of this year’s draft, the 6’3”, 209 pound Vanderbilt product figures to open his career as the Eagles main option out of the slot. Matthews possesses solid speed, uses his size well and was productive in college, which increases the odds he will be productive early in his career in Philadelphia. Better yet, with Riley Cooper having produced just one solid season during his four year career and Jeremy Maclin having never topped 1,000 receiving yards and on a one year contract, Matthews has an opportunity to reach the starting lineup as a rookie. We like his upside and consider him worthy of a late round flier in redraft leagues.

WR Josh Huff

Eagles coach Chip Kelly went with what he is familiar with when selecting Oregon wide receiver Josh Huff in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. There is an outside possibility that could give him a leg up on fellow rookie Jordan Matthews, taken in the 2nd round. In Huff, the Eagles landed a productive college receiver with upside but he will have some issues to overcome to earn a role by opening day. He possessed good but not outstanding speed and, at 5’11” and 206 pounds, lacks ideal size. He also didn’t run a full route tree at Oregon and earned a reputation for dropping some balls. While Kelly’s familiarity with Huff will help him, 2014 seems destined to be a redshirt season for Huff in Philadelphia. He rates as a mid-tier dynasty prospect given the uncertainty surrounding Jeremy Maclin (contract) and Riley Cooper (potential one year wonder).

WR Damaris Johnson

A little spark plug, Johnson earned a minor role as an undrafted free agent in 2012, hauling in 19 receptions for 259 yards. However, he contributed little in 2013 and with a loaded depth chart at wide receiver, the 5’8” and 170 pounds Tulsa product is likely fighting for a roster spot based on his ability as a returner.

TE Zach Ertz

The Eagles acquired Ertz using a 2nd round pick in the 2013 draft with the objective of adding a versatile piece to their array of offensive weaponry. All indications are that his acquisition will begin to pay major dividends in 2014. Solid as a rookie with 36 receptions for 469 yards and four touchdowns in a reduced role, the 6’6”, 252 pound Stanford product is primed for a breakout with DeSean Jackson no longer in Philadelphia to help stretch opposing defenses. Ertz has the speed and athletic ability to get deep down the middle of the field, a trait that incumbent starter Brent Celek never possessed. Ertz’s ascension to the starting line up is all but a given. The only issue is how productive he can be in his second season. Consider him a lower tier TE1 with a major upside in redraft formats and perhaps the league’s leading tight end prospect in dynasty formats.

TE Brent Celek

Once again in 2013, Celek teased enough to stay on the fantasy radar, catching 32 passes for 502 yards and six touchdowns. While he hit double digit fantasy points in four games, he also had seven games with three or fewer points and never had more than six targets in a game. With Zach Ertz expected to assume a larger role in the Eagles offense, this is likely the year that Celek falls off the fantasy radar altogether.

TE James Casey

Can you say bust? Handed a $12-million, three year contract with $8-million guaranteed, Casey was a complete non-factor in 2013, catching three passes for 31 yards. With Zach Ertz a breakout candidate and Brent Celek continuing to provide steady, if unspectacular production, there doesn’t seem to be a role for Casey in the Eagles offense.

Also see: Dallas Cowboys | New York Giants | Washington Redskins
 

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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