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Fantasy Baseball Injury Update: Pitchers

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Not surprisingly, because it happens every year, many baseball players finished the 2010 season with injuries. Players coming off injury will generally make fantasy owners question whether they should stay away or not, which could result in us finding a great buy low candidate.

We already looked at the status of key hitters coming off injury. Here is a look at some pitchers who lost time to injury last season and what we should expect for 2011.

 
Good Value

Brandon Webb was one of the best pitchers in the game from 2006-2008, but had his 2009 season cut short after pitching four innings on Opening Day, sustaining a shoulder injury. Webb never saw the field in 2010. His target is to be on the Texas Rangers’ active roster for Opening Day this season, but the team is being cautious with him and that may not be realistic.

Regardless, assuming he is healthy and starting again before long, pitching in the American League in Texas is always a risk to your ratios. A late round pick could be rewarded with early-to-mid round performance considering Webb’s talent if he can recapture his old form.

Joe Nathan was considered an elite closer going into 2010 before he blew out his elbow during Spring Training last March. Nathan looks good to go this spring and should resume where he left off for the Minnesota Twins. He is likely to slide in your draft, so pounce when the time is right on a bargain top closer.

 
High Risk, High Reward

Florida Marlins’ Josh Johnson was shut down for the season in early September with back and shoulder problems. The back is a small reason for concern, but the shoulder is a major one. Johnson is one of baseball’s elite pitchers when health permits. Johnson indicated in early February that he, “feels great” physically, but one or both of these injuries may linger into this season. Considering that it will probably take a relatively high pick to land Johnson, let someone take on the downside risk and go with a more sure thing.

New York Mets’ Johan Santana had elbow surgery in September 2009 and shoulder surgery in September 2010. Santana was baseball’s best pitcher from 2004-06, but those days are behind him. Elbow injuries are not so worrisome these days, but shoulder problems are hard to shake and tend to spell the beginning of the end of careers. He will not pitch until June at the earliest. Let him take up room on someone else’s roster in 2011.

Josh Beckett had a very untypically poor 2010 season for the Boston Red Sox. He suffered a lower back injury and when he returned, he lived somewhere between awful and worse. Although many consider his down year a one-off and expect a big bounce back, I recently decided to take a more conservative approach by reducing my original projections for him. He is still worth a mid-round pick as he will be solid at the worst on the powerful BoSox, but Beckett’s best days may be behind him.

Jake Peavy didn’t pitch after July because of a shoulder injury that required surgery in September. Like Santana, Peavy’s shoulder woes are reason for concern, especially after only 33 starts in the last two seasons. Even though he’s ahead of schedule in his rehabilitation, the White Sox have no timetable for his return. The White Sox were looking at Chris Sale as a possible starter until Peavy is healthy enough to return to the rotation, but the hope is Peavy is healthy with Sale slated for the bullpen. Peavy is worth a flier at the end of your draft, but don’t invest anything serious here. He could be dead weight on your roster for some time.

David Aardsma did a great job closing games for the Seattle Mariners during the last two seasons. Unfortunately, they didn’t give him a lot of save opportunities last year and likely won’t again this year. On the injury front, Aardsma had hip surgery in December and is still on crutches to help him get around.

He isn’t going to do much through Spring Training and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season. His hip injury is something that might linger, or there could be some rust just getting back into shape even if the rehab goes well. He might be a good late round source for saves, but you’ll need to be patient to see any production, and be ready to cut bait if Aardsma can’t shake the injury.

 
Tread Carefully

Erik Bedard should be ready to start the season following shoulder surgery. He threw his first bullpen session of the year a week ago and reported no issues. Bedard has been hampered by injuries throughout his career, so tread carefully. When healthy, Bedard is very good, but those days seem few and far between as Mariners fans know all too well. He has nice value if you can get him late in your draft, but it is still a risky pick because Bedard has a habit of coming up lame and disappointing.

Rich Harden was injured again last season. That line has been used almost every year of Harden’s eight year MLB career. He’s only started more than 26 games in a season once and the safe bet is that he never will again. No one doubts that Harden has elite talent when healthy, but those days are rarely seen and a dinged up Harden is not quite like the real thing. Harden is returning for a third stint with the Oakland Athletics. Spend a late round pick on him, but don’t invest anything significant. Also, if your league doesn’t have a DL slot on your roster, just avoid Harden all together.

Chris Young is somewhat of a reclamation project for the New York Mets. After battling injuries for the past three seasons, including shoulder problems most recently, he looks like a low-risk bet for the Mets and maybe for your fantasy squad. If he remains healthy and comes even close to his career ratios of 3.80 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP, he would be a steal. The big question is whether he can return to pre-injury form.

Stephen Strasburg lived up to the hype by striking out 14 batters in his MLB debut. He went on to strike out 41 batters in his first four starts and the legend was being written. Then tragedy struck with an elbow injury that required elbow ligament replacement (Tommy John) surgery that ended his 2010 season. He isn’t due back until late this season at the earliest. The Washington Nationals have a 12 to 18 month timetable on his rehabilitation, and expect them to take it easy on him once he does return. Expect nothing from Strasburg in 2011, but look for a great bounce back in 2012.

Chien-Ming Wang missed all of the 2010 season with an injured right shoulder. The Nationals would like nothing more than for Wang to return to the form that saw him post back-to-back 19-win seasons for the New York Yankees in 2006-07. The encouraging news is that Wang pitched in the Instructional League without any problems, but remember this is a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 that has shoulder problems. He’s worth a late flier, but nothing more.

Fantasy Baseball Players of Interest: Overvalued and Undervalued Pitchers

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The great thing about fantasy baseball is everyone has an opinion. The culmination of those opinions at this time of year often boils down to player rankings and projections. If we all had the same expectations for players going into the season, it would sure make the draft and all the pre-draft prep a lot less interesting. Let’s all just Yahoo! auto-draft and be done with it.

Luckily, that isn’t the way it is, and why at DraftBuddy.com we have our very own set of detailed player projections, plus the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy custom ranking and draft tools, loaded with those projections. Not that you can’t edit the projections or import other projections into the Compiler. You know, because you have your own opinion.

Right now we’re talking about the official DraftBuddy.com projections though, and why some players are projected higher or lower than consensus. Hey, everyone has an opinion, right? The important thing is the projector has his or her reasons for projecting these players a certain way.

That is what this article is about. Last time we identified and discussed some hitters of interest. Now let’s take a look at some pitchers who are projected outside the norm according to the majority of fantasy baseball players.

 
Did Josh Beckett really post a 5.78 ERA and only win six games in 2010? Yes he did. But don’t worry, he will be back. Injuries caused most of Beckett’s problems last year. He was largely ineffective down the stretch and his velocity was down a bit, leading one to wonder if he was completely healthy when he returned to the mound.

His peripherals suggest that it was more bad luck than bad pitching. Beckett is going in the twelfth round (14-team league) according to his Average Draft Position (ADP) at Mock Draft Central (MDC), so take advantage and grab him shortly before that. We all know how good this guy really is when healthy.

Jake Peavy is another pitcher who has battled injuries recently. Despite going to the American League and playing home games in one of the worst pitchers parks in baseball, Peavy is still a stud you can slot into your rotation and start with confidence most every week. Although he is still rehabbing from shoulder surgery that shut him down for the season last July, he is expected to return in the month of April if not Opening Day.

There’s no reason this guy should be going in the 23rd round at MDC, so grab him before someone else can reap those rewards. He’s not pitching at PetCo Park any longer, so the stats will take a bit of a hit as they did the first half of last season, but Peavy is definitely worth a mid-teen pick.

Daisuke Matsuzaka isn’t receiving the love he did in his first few seasons in the States. He was a much-ballyhooed Japanese hero who cost the Boston Red Sox $51 million just for the right to negotiate with him. Dice-K won 33 games in his first two seasons but hasn’t reached ten in either of the last two. What gives?

His peripherals are all over the place, but there doesn’t seem to be one thing that leads you to believe Dice-K has lost anything. His run support in the last few years has dropped off, leading to a worse record. Assuming the Red Sox’ offense can stay healthy this season, Matsuzaka should get plenty of runs to pick up a dozen or so wins again. Considering he is practically undrafted in many leagues (he isn’t in the top 350 of the latest ADP report), he should provide good ratios, strikeouts and wins. Consider him as an end-game flier, or an early season waiver wire add.

Brandon Webb was one of the most feared pitchers in baseball just a few years ago. He won at least 14 games for four straight seasons, culminating with 22 wins in 2008. But a shoulder injury derailed his 2009 and 2010 seasons and led to the Diamondbacks to show him the door. He signed in Texas, where the hot summer seems to make the ball jump out of the park. Webb does not have a history of giving up gopher balls though, so this shouldn’t be a problem. With a good offense backing him, Webb should be a great pickup well before his 21st round ADP.

Francisco Liriano is a player to be wary of. In his first two seasons with the Twins, he was dominant. His strikeout ratio was more than ten per game and his walk ratio was less than three. He missed all of 2007 and half of 2008 with an elbow injury and struggled for the next year and half with control. Though his strikeout ratio isn’t quite back to pre-injury level, the walks are down but overall, his dominance is also down. Is he back to a top starter level? Let someone else take that risk. Since he’s going in the sixth round at MDC, it would be smarter to go with a more sure thing.

Trevor Cahill had a great 2010. He went 18-8 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. But when we look a little closer, we see that he did it with a lot of smoke and mirrors. He had a completely unsustainable .236 BABIP and only strikes out 5.40 batters per nine innings. His walk rate was 2.88 per nine, but that is lower than his minor league levels, meaning he is unlikely to remain on that plane. He is still expected to have a solid season and 14 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA is projected, but I’d let someone else have him if he goes in the seventh round like his is doing on average at MDC.

Wandy Rodriguez is being drafted in the ninth round according to his ADP. Really? Why? No one knows. He is a nice pitcher for an abysmal team. He’ll probably pick up 185 strikeouts and put up an ERA around 3.33, but expecting double digit wins from him is asking a lot. The Astros offense is anemic and their bullpen is a powder keg waiting to blow. Picking up a guy on a solid team with a better chance at 15 wins is a better use of a draft pick needed to acquire Rodriguez.

Injury Status Update—Pitchers

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As usual, many pitchers finished the 2009 season with injuries. Injuries, particularly with pitchers, make fantasy owners question whether they should avoid the player at all costs or whether he represents a good buy low candidate.

Here is a recap of pitchers coming off injury, and whether they are worth the risk fantasy-wise or not for the 2010 season. We’re giving the Green Light to players not expected to be negatively impacted by their most recent injury woes.

Green Light

Tim Hudson, Braves—Hudson had elbow surgery, but returned at the end of 2009 to make seven starts, going 2-1 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Both of those ratios are higher than his career norms, but a full spring training should have him back in good form. He’ll miss a few starts as the Braves try to preserve him a little, but 30 outings is very realistic along with a dozen or so wins.

Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays—Marcum looks healthy following elbow surgery. He is expected to be the number one starter in the Toronto rotation. The Jays would be wise to hold Marcum back on a few cold days in April to preserve that elbow for the long haul, but close to 30 starts and a dozen wins are likely.

Jake Westbrook, Indians—Westbrook is another pitcher recovering from elbow surgery and will likely be the workhorse in the Indians rotation. He is quite possibly trade bait for the trade deadline, so look for Cleveland to try to showcase him as much as possible. Since the surgery was done in March of 2008, the elbow should hold up well.

Kevin Slowey, Twins—Slowey had wrist surgery in August and is a great draft day value pick. He is likely to fall to the middle rounds, but is a quality pitcher who should be at full health for the beginning of the season for the Minnesota Twins. A dozen or so wins are expected and he could do better than that.

Cliff Lee, Mariners—Lee will miss the beginning of spring training after requiring surgery to remove a bone spur from his ankle. The injury could force him to miss a few starts at the beginning of his season with Seattle, but he should be just fine. Look for big numbers in a contract season while pitching in a pitchers park. Talk up his surgery at your draft then swoop in and get him.

Johan Santana, Mets—Santana had elbow surgery in September, but looks healthy. Unless you hear otherwise, expect the same guy who averaged 16+ wins and a sub-3.00 ERA over the last six seasons.

Aaron Harang, Reds—Harang is a candidate for a big comeback. He was a real workhorse for the Reds 2005-2007 then had two poor seasons and finished 2009 with an emergency appendectomy. The extra time off can only benefit Harang, and another 15 win season is possible.

Roy Oswalt, Astros—Oswalt’s back problems don’t seem to be much of a concern in Houston. He probably will slip a little bit in your draft, meaning a nice value if you can capitalize. Don’t be afraid of continued problems with the injury.

Jeff Francis, Rockies—Francis missed all of 2009 after shoulder surgery, but is well on his way to a full recovery. Assuming no setbacks, he should provide a nice source of wins and 100+ Ks. Grab him late in your draft and enjoy the ride.

Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks—All you need to know about Webb regaining his dominant form is that this is a contract year. Webb was one of the best pitchers in the game from 2006-2008, but had his 2009 season cut short after pitching 4 innings on opening day before sustaining a shoulder injury. He’ll be back at full force, so bid with confidence.

High Risk, High Reward

Ben Sheets, Athletics—Sheets signed with Oakland with the obvious intent of showcasing his stuff in a cavernous pitchers park. Both parties know the intention is to trade Sheets to a contender at the trade deadline where the Athletics can pick up some young talent and then Sheets is guaranteed to be playing for a contender at the end of the season. Everybody wins, right?

Well, only if the big righty can stay healthy, which is a big if. Sheets missed all of 2009 following elbow surgery and has only started more than 25 games in a season in four of the nine years he’s been in the Majors. He’s a high risk, high reward kind of guy. He’ll be good when he’s out there, but don’t expect more than 25 starts in 2010.

Rich Harden, Rangers—Harden is a high risk, high reward guy who has battled injuries to his elbow and shoulder throughout his career. He’s a stud when he is able to take the mound at full health, but a dud when the injuries set in. If he falls to you in the late-middle rounds, grab him, but only do so when you know you can afford to take the risk.

Tread Carefully

Dallas Braden and Justin Duchscherer, Athletics—Braden (foot injury) and Duchcherer (elbow surgery) are trying to recover from injuries that will likely cause them to miss a number of starts in 2010. When able, Braden and Duchscherer will post good ratios, but only expect about 25 starts from Braden and less than 20 from Duchscherer.

Tim Wakefield, Red Sox—Boston’s ageless knuckleballer is coming back from off-season surgery on a herniated disc. This type of injury presents a problem when the player in question is 44 years old. Though the knuckler doesn’t take as much of a toll on the arm as most other pitches, Wakefield isn’t a spring chick any longer and Boston is trying to give the fifth rotation slot to Clay Buchholz. Stay away from Wakefield except in the deepest of leagues.

Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers—Reports out of Detroit are that Bonderman’s shoulder might finally be healed. The Detroit righty has had three straight years of injuries and ineffectiveness. If he can regain that arm strength and effectiveness, he might be a force again. But don’t count those chickens before they are hatched as he has been ineffective in years when no apparent injury was present. Grab him late in the draft or be prepared to pull him off the waiver wire if you see signs of early life but don’t use a pick of any value on him as he’s still a big question mark.

Gil Meche and Brian Bannister, Royals—Kansas City starters Meche and Bannister cannot be counted on for a lot in 2010. They are both dealing with shoulder woes that may hinder them for much of the season. Look for a couple dozen starts each, but they cannot be counted on for many quality outings.

Erik Bedard, Mariners—Lee’s new teammate in Seattle, Bedard, will miss at least the first two months of the season following shoulder surgery. Bedard has been hampered by injuries throughout his career, so tread carefully. He has nice value if you can get him late in your draft, but don’t pounce too early because Bedard has a habit of disappointing.

Oliver Perez, Fernando Nieve and Jonathan Niese, Mets—Beyond Santana, other Mets starters are also attempting to come back from injuries, but will have a remarkably different result. Perez (knee), Nieve (quadriceps) and Niese (hamstring) will all battle it out for the last two rotation spots, which will likely go to Perez and Nieve. But don’t expect anything that resembles quality innings from these three as they all might be shuffled in and out of the rotation all season.

Rich Hill, Cardinals—St. Louis just signed Hill to a free agent contract, despite the lefty coming off of shoulder surgery. Since pitching coach Dave Duncan has a good track record, Hill is likely to return with some decent outings, but expect less than 20 starts as he should be brought along slowly and carefully.

Manny Parra, Brewers—Parra’s shoulder shouldn’t be a big concern, but he just won’t live up to expectations in Milwaukee. Expect 100+ Ks again, but the ERA and WHIP probably aren’t worth the roster spot.

Ted Lilly, Cubs—Lilly is unsure when his shoulder will allow him to return. Lilly has quietly been consistent and effective, winning ten or more games and averaging 13+ wins in each of the last seven seasons. But don’t look for that to continue as 20 starts might be generous and eight wins a best case scenario.

Barry Zito, Giants—Zito left his last start of 2009 after taking a liner off his elbow. His elbow is alright, but this guy hasn’t done much good since he arrived in San Francisco other than taking the ball every fifth day. He’ll win 10-11 games, strikeout about 125, but can you stomach his ERA and WHIP?

Chris Young, Padres—Young is coming back from rotator cuff surgery and could be a nice source of stats if you can deal with him missing about a third of the season as the Padres won’t push him too hard during a campaign in which they aren’t going to compete.

Not With A Ten Foot Pole

Jamie Moyer, Phillies—Moyer is coming back from a knee injury and a sports hernia. Coming back from multiple injuries at age 47 doesn’t bode well, especially when the team is trying to replace you. This guy isn’t worth a roster spot in Philly or on your team.

Scott Olsen, Nationals—Olsen is recovering from a recurring shoulder injury and plays for the Washington Nationals. Stay away.

Kevin Hart, Pirates—Regardless of the status of Hart’s rib cage injury, pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates drops his fantasy value to next to nothing.