Data as of June 26 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Tom Brady

With Tom Brady’s 2014 fantasy prospects, you get to pick your story. On the one hand, time is catching up with Brady as he suffered through his worst statistical season since 2006 (ignoring the 2008 season when he appeared in just one game). He failed to throw for at least 30 touchdown passes for the first time since 2009, had six games with less than 15 fantasy points and even failed to muster a rushing touchdown for the first time since 2006 (again, removing the 2008 season). On the other hand, you could make the argument that at 36, 37 in August, he is primed for a bounce back season after having a solid, if not spectacular season in 2013 despite having to get accustomed to an almost entirely new set of receivers. The Patriots opened last season minus Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Danny Woodhead, who ranked as their top five receiving options during the 2012 season. The truth likely lies somewhere in between. While Brady clearly isn’t yet washed up, his best days are almost certainly behind him. His group of receivers is more experienced than a year ago, they rank in the middle of the league. For Brady to return to top five fantasy status at quarterback, he needs his young receivers to continue to develop and for Gronkowski to be available for at least 10-12 games. Hedge your bets on this one, folks. While Brady may emerge as an upper-tier QB1, we feel more comfortable grabbing him as mid or lower tier option at quarterback.

RB Stevan Ridley

Ridley faces two major roadblocks in returning to the fantasy prominence he displayed in 2012 when he rushed for 1,263 yards and scored 14 touchdowns. Those roadblocks are his own ability to hold onto the football and Shane Vereen. While many knocked his production last season, he actually performed just as well as in 2012 except that he wasn’t given as much opportunity seeing his rushing attempts drop from 290 to 178. His yards per carry only declined from 4.4 to 4.3 and his touchdowns fell from 12 to seven. Fumbles were the main cause of his reduced usage since Vereen only played half the season. The question in 2014 is how much Vereen’s presence for a full year will eat into Ridley’s workload. Let’s take a closer look. In the nine games they both appeared in last season, Vereen had 92 touches to 89 for Ridley. Extrapolating that over a full season, Ridley figures to approach 900 rushing yards with 7-8 touchdowns, making him an upper tier RB3. That is, provided he doesn’t lose playing time due to his fumbling issues.

RB Shane Vereen

Quick – how many total yards does Vereen have over his three year career? Couple of thousand, right? Wrong. Try 1,092. Football pundits have been quick to sing Vereen’s praises and ability to produce prior to the last three seasons but his career highs are 251 rushing yards, 427 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Just sayin’. While Vereen’s talents as a change of pace back and receiver are obvious, there isn’t any evidence to suggest that he can handle a lead role or remain healthy for an entire season. So, why are we fawning all over him? Good question. While Vereen feels like the sexy choice out of the Patriots backfield options, Stevan Ridley has proven more during his career and he offers more consistency given his role as a short yardage back and 4th quarter pounder.

RB Brandon Bolden

After posting 274 rushing yards and two touchdowns as a rookie free agent in 2012, Bolden followed that up with 271 rushing yards and three touchdowns. While he also added 21 receptions for 152 yards, Bolden has done little more than tease fantasy owners and prove that he could produce respectable numbers if given an opportunity. However, in a Patriots backfield that features Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen and added James White in this year’s rookie draft, Bolden figures to be little more than a fantasy tease once again in 2014. Barring an injury to Ridley or Vereen, he has little fantasy appeal.

RB James White

Taken in the 4th round of this year’s NFL Draft, White is expected to begin his Patriots career behind Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden on the team’s depth chart at running back. While his situation sounds daunting, it won’t be a huge surprise if the 5’9”, 204 pound Wisconsin product carves out a role for himself by season’s end. With Ridley and Vereen in the final year of their respective contracts, and Bolden having been suspended during the 2012 season, there is a good chance that Patriots management will want to get a look at White to determine if he can contribute in 2015.

WR Julian Edelman

This is what it has come to, folks. Edelman is not only the Patriots top fantasy wide receiver, he is also expected to be their top receiver with Rob Gronkowski likely to open the season on the Physically Unable to Perform List. While Edelman was productive last season with 105 receptions for 1,056 yards and six touchdowns, opposing defenses aren’t overly worried about his playmaking ability. While Edelman had generally been productive when given an opportunity during his first four years in the league, he wasn’t handed a golden opportunity until last season when Wes Welker left in free agency, Danny Amendola was ineffective and injury prone as his replacement and Rob Gronkowski couldn’t stay healthy. The truth is that the Patriots (or any team for that matter) don’t really care to have a player like Edelman as their top wide receiver. While the Patriots wide receiver depth chart runs deep, it’s littered with players who haven’t established themselves, have barely established themselves, are injury prone or are proven journeymen. It feels like Edelman will once again get enough opportunities by default to come close to 1,000 receiving yards. Consider him a low end WR3.

WR Danny Amendola

Sometimes we all wish we could have a do-over and that’s the case with the Patriots decision to sign Danny Amendola prior to the 2013 season. Rather than top the Broncos two year, $12-million offer to Wes Welker, they instead signed Amendola to a five-year, $28.5-million contract that included $10-million in guarantees. While Welker excelled in Denver, Amendola was a complete bust in New England. His injury struggles followed him from St. Louis to New England as he missed four games and played banged up in several others. He also seemed unable to get in sync with quarterback Tom Brady even when he was healthy. Injuries and ineffectiveness resulted in Amendola being targeted five times or less in five of the 12 games he appeared in as he finished the season with 54 receptions for 633 yards and a pair of touchdowns, running his string of seasons with under 700 yards to five. While there’s a chance that Amendola will get on the same page with Brady (hey, it was his first year in New England), we don’t like his odds of remaining injury free which limits his fantasy value to that of a WR4 with upside. It just feels like some fantasy owner will grab Amendola a couple of rounds before they should. Don’t let it be you. Keep these stats in mind – nine touchdowns in five years while averaging 9.4 yards per reception.

WR Aaron Dobson

Taken in the 2nd round of the 2013 NFL Draft, Dobson was in the midst of putting together a solid season before a Week 11 foot injury set him back. In the eight games he appeared in prior to that, Dobson caught 31 of his 58 targets for 454 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 8.7 PPG. The 6’3”, 200 pound Marshall product is clearly the most talented Patriots threat on the outside and could emerge as a breakout candidate in 2014. The only issues are his ability to stay healthy – the foot injury required offseason surgery – and the solid depth New England has at wide receiver. Consider him a lower tier WR4 with upside as well as a solid dynasty league prospect.

WR Kenbrell Thompkins

A preseason wonder, this undrafted rookie free agent out of Cincinnati started the season out well with 15 receptions for 257 yards and three touchdowns in his first four games. However, he stumbled badly after that, catching 17 passes in his next seven games before missing the final four games of the regular season with a hip injury. Benched in Week 9, Thompkins seemed to hit the rookie wall early, displaying poor hands and finishing the season with just 32 receptions on his 70 targets. At best, Thompkins could open the season fourth on the depth chart behind Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Aaron Dobson provided he beats out Brandon LaFell and Josh Boyce. Unless you are in a deep league, Thompkins isn’t worth taking a flier on.

WR Brandon LaFell

Count us among those extremely perplexed as to why the Patriots would add LaFell to their roster in free agency given the presence of similar players in Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins. His $3-million signing bonus guarantees a roster spot but after failing to produce a single 700 yard season during his four years in Carolina despite little competition as the team’s number two wide receiver, there aren’t any reasons to expect more from him in New England. Sure, the presence of Tom Brady will help but the Patriots have at least four other wide receivers that have established themselves to varying degrees along with Rob Gronkowski at tight end. LaFell isn’t even worth taking a flier on. We prefer the upside of Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins as outside threats on New England’s roster.

WR Josh Boyce

Drafted in the 4th round out of TCU, Boyce was held back by an ankle injury and contributed just nine receptions for 121 yards in six games. In 2014, he is faced with a crowded and muddled depth chart, essentially looking up at five players who are more established than he is. In fact, since the Patriots value Matt Slater for his work on special teams, there is a very real chance that Boyce may be on the outside looking in on opening day unless he surpasses Kenbrell Thompkins on the depth chart.

TE Rob Gronkowski

While Gronkowski has plenty of upside, his growing list of injuries should be cause for concern for fantasy owners. He will once again enter the season with question marks as to whether he will be available Week 1, clouding his fantasy value. And we all know how much the Patriots like to reveal injury information, leaving fantasy owners with little information to use in their draft. This year, it is a torn ACL suffered in Week 14 that clouds his availability on opening day. Can Gronk return from the injury in the same miraculous way that Adrian Peterson did? Count us among those not willing to make that bet. More likely, Gronkowski will open the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, causing him to miss the first six games of the season. Will he be able to remain healthy over the balance of the season? Good question. While his upside is huge (3,255 receiving yards and 43 touchdowns in 50 career games), you shouldn’t reach for him in your fantasy draft. With 14 missed games over the past two years, the risk is just too great.

TE Michael Hoomanawanui

Just in case you are wondering, no, Hoomanawanui is not worth owning if Rob Gronkowksi opens the season on the Physically Unable to Perform List.