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Week 13 Moving Up, Moving Down

December 9, 2009 By Dave Leave a Comment

Moving Up

Robert Meachem, Saints – Touchdowns in five straight games, plays on the league’s best offense – what’s not to like? Even the schedule looks good with the Falcons, Cowboys and Bucs up next.
Brandon Jacobs, Giants – Nice of Jacobs to throw up his best game of the year this week with 113 total yards and two touchdowns. Of course, I had him on my bench and it helped cost me a playoff spot in one of my leagues. [Editor’s note: Me too. Bench that is, not the rest of the stuff.] Maybe he’s finally ready to assume the high end RB2 status most expected entering the season.
Antonio Gates, Chargers – Gates has been solid for most of the year but nowhere near the major stud he has been at times in previous years. However, he seems to have reclaimed his old form in the last two weeks with 15 receptions for 285 yards and two touchdowns. It looks like he’s getting hot just in time to carry some lucky owner’s fantasy squad in the playoffs.
Jason Witten, Cowboys – Similar story here with Witten going off during the last two weeks to the tune of 19 catches for 263 yards. However, it does look like the Cowboys are using Roy Williams as their main option in the red zone.
Alex Smith, 49ers – It’s official – the 49ers have morphed into a passing team and Smith is reaping the fantasy reward of that. In the last three games, he’s passed for 769 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception. He’s worthy of a start in two of the next three weeks – avoid using him in Week 15 against the Eagles.
Santonio Holmes, Steelers – With 131 yards and a score in Week One, Holmes seemed ready to enjoy a breakout year in 2009. However, he failed to find the end zone again until Week 12 but has touchdowns in each of the last two games. With Hines Ward out this week, expect more targets for Holmes.
Pierre Garcon, Colts – Garcon shredded a pretty decent Titans secondary this week with 136 yards on six receptions. He was considered a raw prospect entering the season but has come on in the last three games with 307 yards and a score. He’s a worthy starter on a weekly basis.
Devin Thomas, Redskins – The situation in Washington isn’t a promising one but the bottom line is that Thomas has been used more and produced more since Sherman Lewis took over the play calling duties from Jim Zorn. This week it resulted in 100 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. Maybe the light has gone on for Thomas.
Jerome Harrison, Browns – Hey, if you’re desperate, Harrison is worth a look. The Browns fed him more than Chris Jennings this week (17 touches to six) so he’s the Cleveland back to get if nothing else is available.
Davone Bess, Dolphins – Miami opened it up in the passing game a little bit this week and Bess responded with 10 catches for 117 yards and a score on 14 targets. While it’s hard to get excited by a guy that averages 9.3 yards per reception and has one touchdown for the year, it does look like he’s the number one guy in the Dolphin passing attack.

Moving Down

Frank Gore, 49ers – 117 yards on 32 carries sounds like what Gore might put up in a single game. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, that’s what he’s put up in the last three games. His performances have been saved by two receiving touchdowns but it’s not even like he’s contributing much in the passing game with just 60 yards over those games.
Vincent Jackson, Chargers – I love Jackson’s game but what I don’t love is how he’s been utilized over the past four weeks. Over that span, he’s been targeted 18 times and has 147 receiving yards and no touchdowns plus he’s been usurped by Antonio Gates as the team’s top red zone target. That could change as soon as this week but as of now, he’s dropped to WR2 status.
Justin Forsett, Seahawks – What can I say other than “wow”? In Julius Jones‘ return from injury, Forsett managed to get just five carries compared to 20 for Jones. Plus, now he’s hurt. Things change quickly in fantasy land.
Jay Cutler, Bears – 8 for 17 and 143 yards and a score sounds like what Cutler should put up against the Ravens or Bears but those are his stats from last week’s matchup against the lowly Rams. Over the last three quarters, he was four of 10 for 12 yards. And, no, I don’t care that his hand was slightly banged up since the Bears themselves said the injury wasn’t serious.
Brett Favre, Vikings – Okay, I’m not really all that down on Favre but he is coming off his first multiple interception performance of the season, he played poorly against the Cardinals and the stingy pass defenses of the Bengals and Panthers are up next. Then Week 16 features a trip to Chicago where the weather could reduce the chance of a strong fantasy performance.
Mario Manningham, Giants – The four looks he got this week were the second fewest he’s had all year. Basically, Manningham’s hit or miss and for the past few weeks, it’s been mostly miss.
Brandon Gibson, Rams – Gibson was interesting for a few weeks because he was getting plenty of targets and came close to scoring a couple of times. However, with Kyle Boller struggling at quarterback and the Rams unwilling to throw the ball deep, Gibson’s targets and his fantasy prospects are in the tank.

Not Sold Yet

Bruce Gradkowski, Raiders – 308 yards and three touchdowns against the Steelers looks very good. However, unless you’re extremely desperate, avoid Gradkowski because, although he seems to be trying very hard, he’s just not that good and neither is the offense he’s leading.
Louis Murphy, Raiders – It was very nice that he had four receptions for 128 yards and two touchdowns while sitting on someone’s bench this week. Unfortunately, he plays for the Raiders and the odds of him duplicating this performance are pretty much nil.

Week 6 Buy Low, Sell High

October 16, 2009 By Dave Leave a Comment

We’re still running a day behind this week recovering from the turkey, but you’ve still got a couple days to wheel and deal before Sunday kickoff with Dave’s buy low, sell high candidates.

Buy Low

Joseph Addai, Colts – Playing a bit of a hunch here but here goes. After 4 games, rookie 1st round pick Donald Brown had reached the point where he was splitting touches with Addai. However, over the last 2 games, Addai has reversed the trend and received 19 and 24 touches to 10 and 8 for Brown. So, if you’re playing the trends, the trend is that Addai is being spelled by Brown and that makes him a valuable commodity in the Colts explosive offense.
Brandon Jacobs, Giants – Giants coach Tom Coughlin let the cat out of the bag this week by stating that the team felt Ahmad Bradshaw‘s workload was where it should be. Translation: Jacobs is our starter and Bradshaw will get 10-15 touches a game. Jacobs has only 1 TD this year but is on pace for 300 carries and over 1,100 yards so you if you believe the TD will come, then you should be buying.
Ryan Grant, Packers – Similar theme here with Grant finding the end zone only once so far in 2009. However, he’s on pace for 1,028 rushing yards and 332 receiving yards on an offense that features many talented playmakers but has suffered due to poor play on the offensive line. The o-line just got a boost thanks to the return of LT Chad Clifton from injury and signing of RT Mark Tauscher.
Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – This is a serious case of buy now. Incumbent Chiefs starter Larry Johnson is suffering through the worst year of his career (2.4 yards per carry, 101 touches with no TD) and the 0-5 Chiefs are clearly in rebuilding mode, so at some point, likely sooner than later, Charles is going to receive an increased workload. There’s no guarantee Charles will start producing major fantasy points but the opportunity will be there.

Sell High

Thomas Jones, Jets – With the Bills and Raiders up next, it might be wise to wait a couple of weeks to move Jones but if the offer is right, move him now. Jones is looking old, slow to the hole and offers nothing in the receiving game (2 catches in 5 games). He’s splitting time with Leon Washington, is averaging 3.7 yards per carry and is on pace for only 867 yards. His fantasy production is bloated due to 5 TD in 5 games and it’s a guarantee that he can’t keep up the pace.
Mario Manningham, Giants – The competition for targets in the Giants offense is fierce. Eli Manning doesn’t have a great arm to succeed in cold weather and it’s going to start getting cold in New York soon. Plus, removing his big game against Dallas, Manningham has averaged 2.5 receptions, 48 yards and 0.5 TD per game. If somebody’s buying him as a WR2, then you should be selling.
Jamal Lewis, Browns – The Browns offense stinks, the 30-year old Lewis has already missed 2 of 5 games and it took him 31 carries to get 117 yards against a banged up Bills defense this week. With a dearth of playmakers on offense and no consistency at the quarterback position, the Browns will struggle to score points for the rest of the season. With the Steelers, Packers, Bears and Ravens up next, it’s high time to move him.
Miles Austin, Cowboys – Let’s see, his big game came in his first start with Cowboys top receiver Roy Williams on the shelf and two of their top running backs (Marion Barber and Felix Jones) either out with injury (Jones) or ineffective because of injury (Barber). Plus the Chiefs can’t tackle, at all.
Santana Moss, Redskins – In 5 games, the Redskins have played one quality defense (Giants). The other 4 were against the Rams, Lions, Buccaneers and Panthers. Despite that, Moss has hit double digit fantasy points only twice and in one of those games he only had 2 receptions. In the other 3 games, he has averaged 3 receptions for 28 yards.

The Giants finally decided to move on without Plaxico Burress. With the troubled wide receiver’s legal issues not going to be sufficiently resolved prior to the draft, the team decided they could no longer wait to decide his fate.

Burress has been a major piece of the Giants offense since signing with the team as a free agent prior to the 2005 season after five years with the Steelers. His monster season in 2007 helped propel the team to a Super Bowl championship.

The obvious assumption from this move is that the Giants will make a run at one of Braylon Edwards, Anquan Boldin or Chad Johnson. However, such a move would not be consistent with the overall philosophy of general manager Jerry Reese, who has used free agency to bring in marginally priced veterans to plug holes. A more likely option would be the team bringing back Amani Toomer or signing former Ram Torry Holt and also addressing the position in the draft.

Look for the Giants to take a receiver in the 1st or 2nd round of this year’s draft. They currently have one pick in the 1st round in addition to two picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. If a receiver starts falling, they have the ammunition to move up to get them.

Fantasy Football Impact

Quarterback Eli Manning obviously suffers with the loss of his number one receiver but the numbers suggest Burress’ absence could be overstated. The assumption that Manning’s production suffered with Burress out of the line-up was more fantasy myth than fact. He averaged roughly 14 points per game with Burress in the line-up or on the sideline. However, Manning did benefit from having four games against the NFC West in 2008 when he averaged over 20 points per game against teams from that division. Perhaps that is indicative of his ranking as a fantasy quarterback. With or without Burress, Manning is a solid backup on your fantasy roster.

Wide receivers Steve Smith, Domenik Hixon, Mario Manningham and Sinorice Moss figure to benefit from Burress’ departure as well as tight end Kevin Boss. Boss figures to benefit the most as he now becomes the team’s top receiving target in the red zone. Smith seems best suited as a number two or three receiver while Manningham is likely the only receiver currently on the roster with the potential to develop into a top wideout. Hixon has flashed some big play ability but does not seem capable of filling in as a number one receiver.

Barring a trade for Edwards, Boldin or Johnson, look for the team to rely on its running game more in 2009. However, the team struggled to score with Burress out of the lineup so the touchdown count for Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw and Danny Ware might suffer with this move. Jacobs remains a solid number two fantasy option but a breakout season now seems less likely.