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First Draft Versus Fantasy Experts, Recapping Scott Fish Bowl QB-Flex PPR League #2014SFB

July 22, 2014 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning throws a 15-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Andre Caldwell during the first quarter against the San Diego Chargers on Thursday, December 12, 2013, at Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver; Photographer: Christian Murdock/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire

Option to flex a quarterback in a redraft league with deep starters, and get Peyton Manning at the 5th overall pick? Yes please! Photo: Icon Sportswire

When I started writing fantasy football articles, joining DraftBuddy.com in April of this year, I took to Twitter, made as many contacts as I could, and kept my eyes open for opportunities to network with other writers in the industry. That led me to sign up and join the Scott Fish Bowl Fantasy League.

Checking the link, you can see this is a massive fantasy football league: 240 teams broken into four, 60 team conferences. From there, each conference has five, 12 team divisions. I am really looking forward to this league.

The starting roster is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 4 Flex, and QB is included in the Flex. With the Flex QB option, I’m approaching the draft as a 2-QB league. The key scoring to be aware of is 4 points per passing TD, 1 point per reception (PPR) and 0.2 points per rushing attempt.

The draft for my league/division started July 7 and ended July 17. I received the 5th pick in the draft. Here is the complete league draft report, and below is how my team shaped up specifically, including thoughts and analysis at each selection:

1.05 QB Peyton Manning, DEN

Going into the draft with the 5th overall pick, I knew I was either going to get one of a Top 3 quarterback (Manning, Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers), LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles. Considering QBs, on average, score more weekly points than running backs and wide receivers, my strategy was going to be to try to get 2 solid QBs to start. The first four players drafted, in order, were Charles, Matt Forte, Rodgers and McCoy. Between Brees and Manning, I took the guy coming off a career year and fantasy points leader from 2013. Brees was picked next at 1.06.

2.08 RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT

I was hoping DeMarco Murray would fall to me at 2.08, but he was taken at 2.06, leaving me deciding between Marshawn Lynch and Le’Veon Bell. Lynch worries me for a few reasons. First, he’s racked up a lot of miles in recent years with deep playoff runs culminating in the Super Bowl last season. There are also grumblings he wants a contract extension, plus Seattle already indicated sophomore Christine Michael will play a bigger role this year to help keep Lynch fresh. With Bell, I’m not worried about LeGarrette Blount, who was signed from New England this offseason, and rookie Dri Archer has some work to do before threatening Bell.

3.05 WR Randall Cobb, GB

My top available choices boiled down to Cobb or a running back, and I didn’t want to wait 14 more picks to get my WR1. Based on my NFC North recap article, I am very high on Cobb. I think this is a big year for him, especially since it’s a contract year. Plus, with Aaron Rodgers fully healthy and the new found running game with Eddy Lacy, Green Bay will be tough to stop in all aspects on offense, an offense in which Cobb plays a huge part.

4.08 QB Jay Cutler, CHI

Approaching this as a 2-QB league, since we are allowed to flex one, why not take a QB with huge upside who is locked into his starting job? Again, referencing in my NFC North recap article, I am really high on Cutler due to his weapons around him and coaching of Marc Trestman. If he can stay healthy, I have no doubt in my mind he will be a Top 7 quarterback. As the 13th quarterback off the board, this could be a huge steal.

5.05 RB Trent Richardson, IND

As my RB2, I have no problem adding Trent Richardson. After a full offseason and training camp, as opposed to arriving in Indianapolis midseason, I expect him to be much more comfortable in the Colts’ system. I think 2013 will go down as a fluke, and this will represent a big bounce back year for Richardson. He has two banged up players behind him in Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard, so he should be a workhorse for the Colts.

6.08 RB Ben Tate, CLE

Hoping Vincent Jackson would fall just a little further, he was nabbed at 6.07, right before my pick. Plan B: Ben Tate. Tate was a great free agent signing for Cleveland. While Terrance West and possibly Isaiah Crowell are in the mix to steal some carries, Tate was brought to Cleveland to be the main back and there is little doubt he will have a prominent role, and potentially more. Talented yet stuck behind Arian Foster previously, this is his time to show everyone what he’s got.

7.05 WR Torrey Smith, BAL

I debated between Eric Decker and Torrey Smith at this pick, and decided to go with the guy that has a better surrounding staff, the guy with Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta. The addition of Steve Smith should prevent teams double covering Torrey as much as he had to fight through last year, having lost teammate Anquan Boldin, allowing for more targets, catches and touchdowns.

8.08 WR Terrance Williams, DAL

With Miles Austin departed due to free agency, Terrance Williams steps up as the true number two wide receiver. I expect big things from Dallas this year due to new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. The Cowboys defense looks highly questionable, resulting in some serious pass attempts by Tony Romo, and they can’t all go to Dez Bryant or Jason Witten.

9.05 RB Steven Jackson, ATL

Although Father Time is working against Steven Jackson at this point in his career, he is still the number one running back in Atlanta. The Falcons had a very down year in 2013, mainly due to injuries on offense, and I expect a big rebound year for them including Jackson, assuming he can stay healthy this time around.

10.08 WR Cecil Shorts, JAC

There are no signs Justin Blackmon will be reinstated from his indefinite suspension any time soon. Cecil Shorts is the Jacksonville Jaguars clear number one wide receiver, and proved last year he can produce even without Blackmon in the lineup until injuries slowed him down. With the addition of rookie wide receivers Marquise Lee and Allen Robinson, Jacksonville has a lot of receiving youth, so veteran QB Chad Henne will lean heavily on Shorts.

11.05 TE Martellus Bennett, CHI

My first tight end drafted and Martellus Bennett is on a team that should be passing the ball a lot, yet doesn’t have a plethora of quality receiving options. Bennett will get his targets, especially in the red zone.

12.08 WR Andrew Hawkins, CLE

Considering Josh Gordon will likely be serving a lengthy suspension, recently acquired free agent Andrew Hawkins got a lot more intriguing, especially in PPR scoring leagues. Hawkins could prove to be a great value pick so late in the draft.

13.05 WR Markus Wheaton, PIT

Even off a very quiet rookie year, Wheaton steps in as a starting wide receiver, replacing departed Emmanuel Sanders. Playing opposite Antonio Brown, Wheaton should see a lot of single coverage and he has the speed and moves to blow past defenders.

14.08 WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG
15.05 WR Harry Douglas, ATL
16.08 RB David Wilson, NYG

At this point, I was looking for high upside players as my starters and main backups were filled. Beckham could be a nice spark to the New York Giants offense that seems to be in desperate need for an overhaul. Douglas is the third wide receiver for the Atlanta Falcons, but he proved himself in 2013 filling in for an injured Roddy White and Julio Jones. He will play the slot and get many targets as teams worry about the dynamic duo. David Wilson is big risk, potentially big reward pick. In 2013, he was poised to have a breakout year. However, a neck injury and surgery sidelined him. He says he is “ready to go,” so if free agent signee Rashad Jennings struggles just a bit, Giants fans will let the team know they want a change and Wilson could step in and shine.

17.05 WR Jarvis Landry, MIA
18.08 TE Jace Amaro, NYJ
19.05 RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE

All rookies with these three picks. I like Jarvis Landry to play the slot alongside Mike Wallace and even give Brian Hartline a good challenge for the number two spot. Plus, Ryan Tannehill loves to check down, so being a PPR league, Landry might see plenty of receptions. Jace Amaro is the starting tight end for the New York Jets. Although that is not saying too much, I decided to go with upside as opposed to a backup tight end for a different team. Isaiah Crowell is getting a lot of talk this offseason as giving Terrance West a tough competition for the true number two running back slot. Also, as the Ben Tate owner, a handcuff isn’t a bad idea since Tate does have an injury history.

20.08 WR Mike Williams, BUF
21.05 RB Mike Tolbert, CAR
22.08 TE Brandon Bostick, GB

More upside picks to close out the draft. Mike Williams surprised as a rookie and then disappointed before finally being unceremoniously traded to Buffalo for next to nothing from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Maybe a change of scenery will do him some good. As defenders will be focused on the speedy Sammy Watkins, Williams might find his fair share of targets, if E.J. Manuel can get him the ball. I was thinking about taking a quarterback at 21.05, however remaining choices Derek Carr, Mike Glennon and Zach Mettenberger should be available on waivers. Mike Tolbert is the goal line back for the Panthers, plus he will fill in if there is an injury to DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart, which is very likely to happen. He is bowling ball that plows through players, and he should score a handful of touchdowns. I did pass on Marcus Lattimore (he went 21.06), but I’m not sure if he will play or rookie Carlos Hyde will pass him as the backup to Frank Gore. Hopefully this doesn’t come back to hurt me. Finally, not being too confident in Jace Amaro, I went with another starting tight end with upside in Brandon Bostick. Although there are many tight ends in Green Bay, Bostick should be given the chance to show what he can do as the number one tight end and with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, you never know what can happen.

My post-draft analysis tells me my quarterbacks are very strong, and should make up for the points lacking from other positions. As for my running backs, I’m a little worried about injury risk, but they should be workhorses for their respective teams. I’m really excited about my potential at wide receiver. At TE, the Cutler-Bennett connection gives me even more reason to cheer for my Chicago Bears.

Overall, I give my team a B in my first appearance in the Scott Fish Bowl Fantasy League, competing against many tough, experienced, fantasy experts. Consider this is the first and biggest step towards earning a spot in the Scott Fish Bowl playoffs!

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Green Bay Packers Fantasy Football Player Projections, Rankings and Commentary

June 27, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Green Bay Packers Running Back Eddie Lacy (27) during a regular season NFL football game between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. December 15, 2013; Photographer: Ray Carlin/Icon Sportswire

Eddie Lacy doesn’t yet rank as a top three option at running back but coming off a stellar rookie campaign you can certainly make the case for taking him good and early in your fantasy draft. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Player Tier · Rank Passing Rushing Receiving FPts
QB A. Rodgers
1 · 2nd
390-575-4,450 36 TD 10 INT
45-205 2 TD
–
399.0
RB E. Lacy
2 · 5th –
260-1,240 10 TD
35-275 2 TD
223.5
RB J. Starks
NR –
90-390 3 TD
10-90 1 TD
72.0
RB J. Kuhn
NR –
10-40 1 TD
10-65 0 TD
16.5
WR J. Nelson
2 · 7th – –
85-1,225 10 TD
182.5
WR R. Cobb
4 · 19th – –
82-970 7 TD
147.5
WR J. Boykin
8 · 47th – –
55-750 4 TD
99.0
WR D. Adams
NR – –
15-225 2 TD
34.5
TE A. Quarless
NR – –
30-360 3 TD
54.0
TE B. Bostick
NR – –
35-380 4 TD
62.0

Data as of June 26 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers run of five consecutive seasons as either the 1st or 2nd ranked fantasy quarterback came to a grinding halt in 2013 as a broken collarbone caused him to miss seven games and most of another. In the eight full games that he appeared him, he was his normal productive self, averaging 25.6 PPG which ranked 3rd in the league behind only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. However, there could be some storm clouds on the horizon that could alter Rodgers’ fantasy value in 2014. The Packers discovered a running game in 2013 with rookie Eddie Lacy rushing for just under 1,200 yards, wide receiver James Jones left in free agency, tight end Jermichael Finley wasn’t re-signed and the offensive line will feature a new starter at center (most likely J.C. Tretter) and the right tackle will be manned by Bryan Bulaga, who returns from a torn ACL. While the Packers drafted three wide receivers to back up Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Jarrett Boykin, there is no proven replacement for Finley. Nonetheless, Rodgers remains an elite quarterback capable of turning marginal players into solid producers, making him a top three quarterback in 2014. Just keep in mind that he carries a little more risk than in past seasons mostly due to the lack of proven depth at wide receiver and tight end.

RB Eddie Lacy

Looking for offensive balance, the Packers used a 2nd round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft to acquire Lacy. The 5’11’, 230 pound Alabama product didn’t disappoint, chalking up 1,178 rushing yards, 257 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, topping 300 touches with quarterback Aaron Rodgers missing half of the season due to injury. Even more impressive was the rookie’s consistency, as he scored double digit fantasy points in 11 games despite missing almost two full games due to a concussion. While Rodgers’ return will result in shift in the pass/run balance, there seems little chance that Lacy will relinquish his workhorse back status anytime soon. The only fantasy risk Lacy carries is due to his inability to remain healthy in college together with last year’s concussion. Lacy doesn’t yet rank as a top three option at running back but you can certainly make the case for taking him as early as the 5th overall pick in a RB heavy fantasy draft.

RB James Starks

Starks was all but forgotten by the Packers during last year’s training camp and preseason, settling into fifth spot on the depth chart behind Eddie Lacy, DuJuan Harris, Johnathan Franklin and Alex Green. However, he worked his way into the lead backup spot behind Lacy and put together arguably the finest season of his four-year career. Starks ran for 493 yards, added 89 yards through the air, scored four touchdowns and was very efficient, averaging 5.5 yards per carry and 8.9 yards per reception. If that sounds like the perfect backup, the Packers agreed, signing Starks to a team friendly two-year contract in the offseason. He enters 2014 as Lacy’s main backup and amongst the league’s top handcuffs for fantasy purposes.

RB DuJuan Harris

What a difference a year makes. Last year, Harris was viewed by many as a potential breakout candidate and by many others as, at worst, Eddie Lacy’s key backup in Green Bay. However, a season-ending knee injury suffered in the preseason allowed Lacy to cement his status as the team’s starter, James Starks (left for dead by most fantasy pundits) emerged as a solid backup and Johnathan Franklin showed some chops when given an opportunity in Week 3 against a stout Bengals defense before a concussion landed him on injured reserve. While Harris may have been a favorite of the Packers coaching staff last offseason, he enters 2014 as an afterthought, and perhaps on the roster bubble.

WR Jordy Nelson

Nelson cemented his status as the Packers leading wide receiver due to his remarkable production in 2013. With quarterback Aaron Rodgers out of the line up for seven games and missing most of another one, Nelson reached career highs in receptions with 85 and receiving yards with 1,314 while catching eight touchdowns. Projecting into the 2014 season, it’s worth noting that seven of Nelson’s touchdowns came in the games Rodgers started. With James Jones having signed with the Oakland Raiders and Jermichael Finley not having been re-signed, Nelson should see an increase on the career-high 126 targets he received last season. He rates as the top fantasy wide receiver after the likes of Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, A.J.Green, Dez Bryant and Brandon Marshall.

WR Randall Cobb

Cobb enjoyed a breakout season in 2012, catching 80 of his 104 targets for 954 yards and eight touchdowns while also chipping in 132 yards on the ground. After starting out on fire in 2013 with a pair of 100 yard, one touchdown performances to start the season, he cooled off considerably before suffering a broken leg which caused him to remain out of the lineup until Week 17. While Cobb has the ability to line up outside, his 5’10”, 192 pound is best suited to working out of the slot and with Jermichael Finley no longer on the roster, Cobb figures to play inside on the majority of his snaps which allows him to work in space. Several fantasy pundits have Cobb as the Packers leading wide receiver but it says here that Jordy Nelson should assume that title. Cobb may have the ability to emerge as a WR1 but his stature causes us some concern which drops his ranking down to WR2 status.

WR Jarrett Boykin

An undrafted free agent in 2012, Boykin didn’t make a single reception as a rookie before emerging as the team’s 4th wide receiver in Week 6 last season and catching 49 of his 82 targets for 681 yards and three touchdowns. If there is one thing that we learned about Boykin in 2013, it is that he can be productive when given an opportunity. In the eight games where he was targeted at least six times, Boykin caught 44 passes for 635 yards and all three of his touchdowns, averaging 10.2 PPG. In his five other games, he averaged 0.9 PPG on just 2.4 targets per game. So, all we need to know is how much he’s going to be used, correct? Boykin should hold off 2nd round draft pick Davante Adams to become the team’s top backup, a role that should approach the 90 plus targets departed James Jones received in each of the last two years.

WR Davante Adams

Looking for a big, physical receiver to replace James Jones, the Packers landed Davante Adams in the 2nd round of this year’s NFL Draft. The 6’1”, 212 pound Fresno State product has solid hands and is willing to go across the middle but lacks deep speed having run just under 4.6 in the 40 at the combine. His scouting report is pretty much interchangeable with Jones’. While that may lead one to conclude that he will assumes Jones’ spot in the Packers offense, Jarrett Boykin’s production in 2013 gives him a leg up in assuming the top backup wide receiver role behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Adams rates as a solid dynasty league prospect but is waiver wire material in re-draft formats unless he unseats Boykin by opening day.

TE Andrew Quarless

Once Jermichael Finely was lost for the season in Week 7, Quarless took over as the Packers top tight end. Unfortunately, he was merely pedestrian, hauling in 32 of his 54 receptions for 312 yards and two touchdowns. After four years of middling performances, Quarless offers little upside and there are no guarantees that he will open the season as Green Bay’s starting tight end. Keep him on the waiver wire until he proves something.

TE Brandon Bostick, TE Ryan Taylor, TE Richard Rodgers, TE Colt Lyerla

John Madden used to say that if you have two guys at a position that usually means you don’t have “a guy”. While that adage may no longer hold true in today’s NFL given the number of specific roles players play, it does hold true with respect to Green Bay’s tight end position. Simply put, they have a cast of several young players, none of whom has proven themselves in the league. Bostick showed some upside last season as the former college wide receiver caught seven passes for 120 yards and a score but he needs to improve as a blocker. Lyerla may have been a high draft choice if not for his issues in college. Taylor and Rodgers are Packers draft picks that have yet to establish themselves in the league. While this is clearly a mixed bag, the fact is that whoever emerges as Green Bay’s starting tight end could have fantasy value so this is a situation worth monitoring in the preseason.

Also see: Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Minnesota Vikings
 

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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