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Fantasy Baseball Buy Sell Advice – Luis Castillo, Yu Darvish, Jed Lowrie

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Jed Lowrie

Oakland Athletics 2B Jed Lowrie is the MVP of fantasy baseball to start the season, among the leaders in HR and RBI, and batting .357. Giles’ fantasy advice is to sell soon, as Lowrie’s value might never be higher.

RHP Luis Castillo, CIN

Luis Castillo has an ugly ERA, currently sitting at 6.51 through 5 starts in his second Major League season with the Cincinnati Reds. He has an ugly everything when compared to last year’s fantasy stats.

Don’t give up on him – yet. His velocity on his four seam is down a tick, but still at a very respectable 96.1 mph. His swinging strike rate is up from last year and his contact rate is down.

Castillo seems to be playing around with his pitch usage throwing his four seamer 17 percent less frequently and increasing the use of his sinker. I think Castillo’s early struggles have more to do with adjusting to new pitching coach Danny Darwin. I see Castillo as a pitcher with strong raw stuff who is learning to make adjustments in his second year.

Fantasy Advice – Buy

Buy while his price is very low. Pitchers with Top 30 potential will rarely be this cheap.

1B Brandon Belt, SF

Brandon Belt has broken my heart before, and after last year I thought I was done with him forever. But here he is moving up the San Francisco Giants batting order and bringing some nice returns for fantasy owners.

Two numbers stand out to me – his strike out rate is at 27.1 percent, while his wOBA is .409. I don’t think these are sustainable together, and I suspect the strike out rate is more telling of his future. I do like Belt and am cheering for him, but am very cognizant that Belt has the potential to disappoint.

Fantasy Advice – Sell

If he is available on your waiver wire grab him and ride this success for as long as you can, but if you own him and get a half decent offer then trade him away.

RHP Yu Darvish, CHC

Yu Darvish looked excellent through 4.2 innings Saturday in Colorado. Then the wheels fell off. Darvish walked pitcher Tyler Anderson putting batters at first and second and didn’t make another out.

Unfortunately there isn’t a stat for a pitcher’s psychological breaking point. I wish there were a way to quantify what happens to Darvish when a call doesn’t go his way and he loses it. The closest thing we have is Fangraph’s clutch stat – and Darvish is experiencing cataclysmic failure in high leverage situations.

Still, Darvish’s velocity looks good and reports are he isn’t tipping his pitches. Darvish is playing for his third team in less than a year. I can’t imagine what kind of stress that is for an athlete whose success is dependent on routine.

Fantasy Advice – Hold

Hold Darvish for now because he has an extremely high ceiling and plays for an excellent team. I think Darvish rights the ship sooner or later.

2B Jed Lowrie, OAK

Last but certainly not least, it is time to discuss the MVP of fantasy baseball through the first three weeks of the 2018 season – Jed Lowrie.

It is so easy to buy into a player doing what Lowrie is doing in April. We waited months for baseball to get here, and the early storylines suck us in. Also, Lowrie’s success isn’t coming out of nowhere, as 2017 was his best season in four years.

Here is the thing to know about Lowrie though – his balls are barely leaving the park (baseballs that is – not to imply he rarely leaves the stadium putting in extra work). According to Statcast his average home run distance is 385.32 feet, well below the league average of 398.53 feet. The Oakland Coliseum doesn’t like to give up home runs and Lowrie’s would only leave his home park if hit down the right field line.

Four of his six home runs have come while on the road. Lowrie gets his power as a pull hitter against right handed pitchers. He may continue to improve on last year’s success, but he won’t be this player for too much longer.

Fantasy Advice – Sell

Pitchers will adjust and Lowrie will revert to a league average player. Sell while you can.

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Cozart, Betemit, Willis, Hughes

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As the baseball season nears the trading deadline, let’s look back at what is trending with the moves that have already been made and recent callups. Several players have newfound playing time while others find their playing time squeezed. This isn’t as much about who the best players are, but who is the best players are right now, which can be the difference between lowering your ratios a few extra points or grabbing a few extra strikeouts now since they might be hard to come by in September.

 
Stock Up

Zack Cozart, SS, CIN – The much-ballyhooed prospect finally got his shot. Of course, it helps that Edgar Renteria and Paul Janish have sucked so bad that the Reds are willing to give the kid all the rope he needs. In his first nine games in the bigs Cozart is hitting .333 with a homer and 2 RBI. He’s not going to be a huge offensive force, but is definitely worth owning if you need middle infield help.

Wilson Betemit, 3B, DET – With Brandon Inge sucking, the Tigers needed a hitter for their playoff run. They traded for a solid hitter in Betemit, who was quickly losing at-bats to uber-prospect Mike Moustakas. You won’t get a lot from Betemit, but he is a very solid player who won’t hurt your batting average and will provide some runs and ribbies. With the thin state at the hot corner, Betemit is more than a capable replacement.

Dontrelle Willis, SP, CIN – Willis has found his way back to the majors and is looking good early. With two starts under his belt, Dontrelle has an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.31. His FIP is 2.68 and his xFIP is 3.12, meaning he is actually pitching better than his 3.38 ERA suggests. Don’t look for the D-Train of his early Marlin years, but a solid starter with a good offense backing him should result in a benefit to your team.

Phil Hughes, SP, NYY – Hughes is back up and looks healthy. His average fastball is back up over 90 MPH and his new curveball is giving him more confidence. He may not ever live up to the hype of his days as a prospect, but he is a solid starter for the time being and remember that he has the Yankees offense backing him up.

Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, SF – Belt is back in San Francisco and with Aubrey Huff struggling at the plate and with injuries, Belt will get the chance to show he’s ready to stay. He may not be ready for the breakthrough to stardom, but Belt is ready to give you solid production.

Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, SD – Blanks is being called up after Anthony Rizzo flopped. Blanks raked at triple-A Tuscon to the tune of .351/11/35. He missed most of 2010 while recovering from an injury, but hit 10 homers and nine doubles in only 148 at-bats with the Padres in 2009. The man has power, though your average might suffer as the batting average seems very unsustainable. If you need a power surge, this is might be your man.

 
Stock Down

Jeff Keppinger, 2B, SF – The move to San Francisco brings a lot of question marks to the remainder of Keppinger’s 2011 season. There isn’t a full time position open to him, so he may be a super-utility player. Also, the Giants offense is less productive than the Houston offense and his new home park is less hitter friendly than his old Houston home. In the end, he probably found himself in a worse situation from a fantasy standpoint.

Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU – With the Keppinger trade, the Houston 2B position was opened for Altuve, a guy with a good batting eye and a little speed. He will likely struggle as he only has 36 games above the single-A level, but he might be useful down the road if you have a spot on your bench of your dynasty team for a few years.

Cody Ransom, SS, ARI – The main beneficiary of Stephen Drew’s broken ankle, Ransom will finally get a chance to start at the Major League level. There’s a reason that a 35 year old hasn’t had a chance to start full time and that’s because he’s not very good. Yes, he mashed triple-A, but this ain’t the Pacific Coast League. Don’t go here unless you are truly desperate for a warm body.

Brandon Inge, 3B, DET – What more do you need to know other than Inge was sent down to triple-A even though he has 10-and-5 rights. He wants to be a Tiger lifer, even if it means little to no MLB at-bats. Cut bait.

Fantasy Baseball Consensus Top Prospects List

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I love this exercise every year, compiling my consensus top baseball prospects list, a ranking of the next best players in baseball, so I can stay a step ahead of the game in my deep keeper fantasy baseball leagues.

This year I used 15 publicly available “top 100” prospect lists to form the basis of my list, up from ten last year. Players had to be named on at least seven of the lists to make the final cut. Players were given 100 points for a 1st place listing, 99 points for second, 98 for third and on and on down to 1 point for a selection as number 100.

Each list that formed the consensus is identified in the key below. Each player’s score for that list is indicated and their average is listed last. Scores are based on the number of lists they appear. I realize this simple system has the potential to skew the results of those picked on fewer lists, but overall this simple system presents a good snapshot of the guys you should target for your rosters.

Top 100 Prospects Lists
AOL AOL Fanhouse MN MiLBNews
BA Baseball America MP MiLB.Prospects.Blogspot.com
BP Baseball Prospectus PT Pine Tar and Pocket Protectors
BB Bullpen Banter PJ Prospect Junkies
DL Deep Leagues PP Project Prospect
FB Fantasy Baseball 101 SB Scouting Book
JM Jonathan Mayo TPA Top Prospect Alert
KL Keith Law

 

Rank Player AOL BA BP BB DL FB JM KL MN MP PT PJ PP SB TPA Avg
1 Bryce Harper, OF, WAS 94 100 100 98 100 100 98 99 99 98 100 100 100 100 100 99.07
2 Mike Trout, OF, LAA 100 99 99 100 99 99 100 100 95 99 99 99 99 94 99 98.67
3 Jesus Montero, C, NYY 97 98 98 97 94 87 92 97 88 100 97 98 98 99 95 95.67
4 Domonic Brown, OF, PHI 95 97 97 99 98 98 97 98 93 86 98 91 93 93 98 95.40
6 Jeremy Hellickson, P, TB 96 96 92 95 97 97 99 87 100 82 96 96 82 96 96 93.80
5 Julio Teheran, P, ATL 99 95 96 92 95 90 91 95 96 95 93 97 79 95 97 93.67
7 Aroldis Chapman, P, CIN 93 94 95 93 96 96 95 86 97 91 92 94 78 98 94 92.80
8 Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC 98 93 89 94 91 83 93 96 87 94 94 88 96 70 93 90.60
9 Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC 83 92 94 86 92 92 94 78 98 96 85 95 85 88 88 89.73
11 Dustin Ackley, OF, SEA 92 89 76 91 93 91 96 94 60 89 95 90 87 89 89 88.07
12 Desmond Jennings, OF, TB 87 79 83 87 90 95 90 81 92 73 91 92 84 97 75 86.40
13 Wil Myers, C, KC 79 91 88 96 86 78 85 93 68 93 90 93 95 64 92 86.07
10 Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL 80 84 81 71 83 93 84 58 90 97 89 89 89 92 78 83.87
16 Matt Moore, P, TB 76 86 91 90 85 77 74 85 89 87 78 85 87 81 84 83.67
17 Jameson Taillon, P, PIT 77 90 93 83 84 84 83 71 83 88 86 86 88 58 90 82.93
19 Shelby Miller, P, STL 82 88 86 89 72 71 81 92 76 70 82 83 92 63 91 81.20
14 Michael Pineda, P, SEA 89 85 77 88 89 85 88 80 94 31 84 87 45 83 78.93
15 Manny Machado, SS, BAL 70 87 85 80 78 86 77 75 77 85 80 82 74 46 86 77.87
18 Kyle Drabek, P, TOR 85 72 87 77 87 94 89 88 78 8 88 78 66 83 87 77.80
22 Martin Perez, P, TEX 84 77 68 85 67 66 78 83 78 77 79 70 91 71 76.71
23 Brandon Belt, 1B, SF 81 78 79 79 88 82 75 84 91 38 87 76 94 52 64 76.53
25 Zach Britton, P, BAL 91 73 84 82 88 82 90 82 5 75 84 83 66 82 76.21
26 Jacob Turner, P, DET 75 80 78 84 77 76 86 79 86 66 72 80 46 60 85 75.33
27 Jarrod Parker, P, ARZ 78 68 59 81 81 64 72 76 59 76 76 81 90 78 76 74.33
20 Mike Montgomery, P, KC 86 82 80 72 73 72 87 73 80 62 72 47 68 74 73.43
21 Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, CLE 61 76 61 82 79 74 65 62 74 90 50 75 76 71 73 71.27
24 Mike Minor, P, ATL 73 64 75 75 80 89 80 40 84 55 73 65 71 85 54 70.87
28 Manny Banuelos, P, NYY 88 60 74 69 57 57 66 89 79 69 59 36 67 65 66.79
29 Brett Lawrie, 2B, TOR 56 61 44 47 68 67 73 64 81 92 70 69 84 53 66.36
30 Aaron Hicks, OF, MIN 62 56 50 70 61 60 62 91 46 61 81 77 58 86 63 65.60
31 Jonathan Singleton, OF, PHI 90 62 38 62 61 71 74 81 54 68 64 61 65.50
32 John Lamb, P, KC 46 83 90 76 64 59 67 60 35 63 40 42 81 87 77 64.67
33 Kyle Gibson, P, MIN 66 67 46 61 71 70 61 69 71 44 69 70 40 75 67 63.13
34 Chris Sale, P, CWS 74 81 82 73 12 76 34 85 33 60 74 26 82 80 62.29
35 Jordan Lyles, P, HOU 63 59 42 39 74 73 70 59 57 61 61 62 81 61.62
36 Tyler Matzek, P, COL 71 69 67 42 54 53 68 77 63 54 71 37 67 69 61.57
37 Casey Kelly, P, SD 72 70 53 78 24 23 79 82 62 30 74 58 65 80 70 61.33
38 Gary Sanchez, C, NYY 67 71 72 59 37 36 69 33 75 84 39 62 28 79 57.93
39 Randall Delgado, P, ATL 49 66 43 64 50 55 51 48 71 68 73 80 32 57.69
40 Brett Jackson, OF, CHC 40 63 54 67 76 75 55 53 83 55 63 42 19 55 57.14
41 Chris Archer, P, TB 54 74 31 57 55 52 54 61 52 66 60 60 56.33
42 Nick Franklin, SS, SEA 35 48 57 60 70 65 63 48 66 74 67 44 57 15 56 55.00
43 Devin Mesoraco, C, CIN 52 29 48 65 56 70 65 22 79 35 77 52 54.17
44 Wilin Rosario, C, COL 47 52 65 55 66 24 60 32 51 23 64 91 66 53.54
45 Jose Iglesias, SS, BOS 65 49 64 49 38 37 59 56 37 57 46 72 48 62 52.79
46 Miguel Sano, 3B, MIN 59 41 70 38 63 45 41 72 50 77 65 52 3 56 59 52.73
47 Jenrry Mejia, P, NYM 28 57 56 62 69 63 41 59 18 42 49.50
48 Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE 34 47 73 68 51 50 45 40 47 54 73 8 48 49.08
49 Grant Green, SS, OAK 43 38 52 46 75 69 43 42 13 53 49 57 42 47.85
50 Stetson Allie, P, PIT 22 62 43 73 75 12 43 47.14
51 Simon Castro, P, SD 30 43 40 50 60 54 37 32 45 67 61 45 47.00
52 Jean Segura, 2B, LAA 69 44 66 48 31 30 66 58 50 35 47 17 46.75
53 Dee Gordon, SS, LAD 31 75 17 33 56 56 57 31 67 30 37 29 72 45.46
54 Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN 32 28 22 46 39 52 36 47 12 83 56 86 90 6 45.36
55 Jarrod Cosart, P, PHI 64 31 29 59 58 50 67 43 24 26 45.10
56 Anthony Rizzo, 1B, SD 51 26 32 30 29 63 56 48 46 47 63 49 45.00
57 Derek Norris, C, WSH 48 37 60 74 42 41 68 28 23 63 32 51 16 36 44.21
58 Dellin Betances, P, NYY 57 58 69 30 20 19 48 28 54 27 45 68 43.58
59 Jaff Decker, OF, SD 4 10 55 69 43 64 18 75 54 43.56
60 Chris Carter, OF, OAK 10 10 71 51 65 81 21 43 56 22 55 15 79 28 43.36
61 Drew Pomeranz, P, CLE 20 40 58 66 44 43 41 70 34 71 43 2 39 30 42.93
62 Alex White, P, CLE 5 54 30 26 53 48 36 48 51 55 49 58 42.75
63 Jurickson Profar, SS, TEX 68 27 23 54 32 31 44 20 55 36 49 41 50 51 41.50
64 Hank Conger, C, LAA 27 16 20 40 62 39 57 68 28 28 27 73 40.42
65 J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR 44 63 53 19 58 17 24 39.71
66 Billy Hamilton, SS, CIN 42 51 55 43 42 50 32 18 53 1 39 38.73
67 Zack Wheeler, P, SF 55 46 49 31 13 12 65 2 37 66 56 44 24 38.46
68 Tony Sanchez, C, PIT 58 55 8 36 21 20 38 41 44 31 52 35 36.58
69 Zack Cox, 3B, STL 18 39 47 49 29 26 33 48 26 47 36.20
70 Anthony Ranaudo, P, BOS 60 34 1 35 1 47 64 65 34 40 29 9 44 35.62
71 Danny Duffy, P, KC 39 33 34 58 39 38 3 45 51 13 35.30
72 Tanner Scheppers, P, TEX 29 17 22 24 48 46 58 25 33 55 20 34.27
73 Yasmani Grandal, C, CIN 15 28 34 33 42 51 35 39 43 21 34.10
74 Ben Revere, OF, MIN 17 39 30 39 38 14 61 34.00
75 Trey McNutt, P, CHC 50 53 33 41 36 35 35 20 10 14 38 33.18
76 Matt Dominguez, 3B, FLA 33 20 21 53 10 9 47 46 80 52 30 34 6 22 33.07
77 Wilmer Flores, SS, NYM 37 42 3 56 11 10 43 53 56 34 1 17 57 32.31
78 Jake Odorizzi, P, KC 6 32 24 34 23 22 64 37 57 30 25 32.18
79 Travis d’Arnaud, C, TOR 65 19 5 4 44 19 26 60 46 32.00
80 Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL 11 21 9 64 42 33 33 41 31.75
81 Brody Colvin, P, PHI 19 45 41 25 35 34 25 14 34 30.22
82 Arodys Vizcaino, P, ATL 38 8 51 23 15 14 54 39 36 7 34 29 29.00
83 Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS 21 35 9 45 28 27 25 27.14
84 Christian Friedrich, P, COL 22 51 14 21 11 59 7 26.43
85 Hak-Ju Lee, SS, TB 53 9 14 52 11 41 17 2 24.88
86 Jake McGee, P, TB 30 28 52 26 25 4 17 9 23.88
87 Tyler Skaggs, P, KC 24 19 18 7 6 49 23 5 38 31 40 23.64
88 Trayvon Robinson, OF, LAD 2 32 41 40 29 4 9 22.43
89 Matt Harvey, P, NYY 8 26 7 18 52 15 6 53 12 21.89
90 Christian Colon, SS, KC 12 50 13 5 19 18 49 15 23 10 18 21.09
91 Craig Kimbrel, P, ATL 14 15 45 27 17 16 26 21 22 5 20.80
92 Michael Choice, OF, OAK 7 27 18 49 47 10 2 5 20.63