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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Tuesday September 25

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Minnesota Twins are facing a RHP at home (Spencer Turnbull DET who has faced 22 batters). On FanDuel the Twins are currently putting up 2.34 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Spencer Turnbull is currently allowing 144% more PPA than the MLB average (2.11 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.39 (2.34 x 144%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.11 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Twins RHP at home Spencer Turnbull DET 22 2.34 x 144% 3.39 +1.04 1.77 x 135% 2.39 +0.62
Red Sox RHP at home Jimmy Yacabonis BAL 144 2.50 x 126% 3.16 +0.66 1.90 x 124% 2.36 +0.46
Angels RHP at home Yovani Gallardo TEX 380 2.34 x 132% 3.10 +0.76 1.77 x 130% 2.30 +0.53
Dodgers RHP on road Matt Koch ARI 341 2.40 x 111% 2.67 +0.26 1.81 x 112% 2.02 +0.22
Astros RHP on road Sam Gaviglio TOR 498 2.33 x 114% 2.67 +0.34 1.76 x 115% 2.01 +0.26
Athletics RHP on road Mike Leake SEA 772 2.42 x 103% 2.48 +0.07 1.83 x 105% 1.91 +0.08
Rockies RHP at home Vince Velasquez PHI 609 2.39 x 104% 2.50 +0.10 1.82 x 103% 1.87 +0.05
Nationals RHP at home Jeff Brigham MIA 58 2.26 x 110% 2.48 +0.22 1.72 x 106% 1.82 +0.10
Cubs LHP at home Gio Gonzalez MIL 710 2.38 x 101% 2.42 +0.04 1.80 x 101% 1.82 +0.02
Indians RHP on road James Shields CHW 843 2.17 x 109% 2.37 +0.20 1.65 x 108% 1.78 +0.13
Cubs RHP at home Chris Archer PIT 614 2.16 x 108% 2.33 +0.17 1.64 x 108% 1.77 +0.13
Phillies RHP on road Chad Bettis COL 496 2.01 x 114% 2.30 +0.29 1.53 x 113% 1.73 +0.20
Yankees TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 2.17 x 100% 2.17 +0.00 1.64 x 100% 1.64 +0.00
Padres RHP on road Chris Stratton SFG 587 1.91 x 112% 2.13 +0.22 1.47 x 111% 1.64 +0.16
Rangers RHP on road Matt Shoemaker LAA 97 2.00 x 107% 2.15 +0.14 1.53 x 105% 1.60 +0.07
Brewers LHP on road Austin Gomber STL 305 2.18 x 95% 2.07 -0.11 1.66 x 96% 1.59 -0.07
Giants LHP at home Robbie Erlin SDP 418 1.94 x 101% 1.96 +0.03 1.50 x 103% 1.54 +0.04
Pirates LHP on road Mike Montgomery CHC 503 2.10 x 90% 1.89 -0.22 1.60 x 91% 1.47 -0.14
Rays RHP at home Luis Severino NYY 757 2.10 x 89% 1.87 -0.23 1.61 x 91% 1.46 -0.15
Braves RHP on road Noah Syndergaard NYM 591 2.15 x 85% 1.84 -0.31 1.64 x 88% 1.44 -0.20
Blue Jays RHP at home Joshua James HOU 64 2.35 x 78% 1.83 -0.52 1.78 x 77% 1.38 -0.40
Mariners LHP at home Brett Anderson OAK 306 1.80 x 98% 1.78 -0.03 1.41 x 100% 1.41 +0.00
Tigers RHP on road Kohl Stewart MIN 138 1.80 x 99% 1.79 -0.01 1.40 x 98% 1.38 -0.02
Mets RHP at home Touki Toussaint ATL 98 1.91 x 93% 1.79 -0.12 1.46 x 89% 1.29 -0.17
Diamondbacks RHP at home Walker Buehler LAD 495 2.03 x 76% 1.55 -0.49 1.54 x 77% 1.18 -0.36
White Sox RHP at home Trevor Bauer CLE 686 2.10 x 73% 1.52 -0.57 1.61 x 74% 1.19 -0.42
Orioles LHP on road David Price BOS 699 1.58 x 93% 1.46 -0.11 1.25 x 93% 1.16 -0.08
Marlins RHP on road Max Scherzer WSN 839 1.90 x 77% 1.46 -0.44 1.46 x 78% 1.14 -0.33

Other Games (Not Main Slate)

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.11 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Reds LHP at home Eric Skoglund KCR 264 2.41 x 119% 2.87 +0.47 1.81 x 118% 2.14 +0.33
Royals LHP on road Matt Harvey CIN 642 1.78 x 110% 1.96 +0.18 1.37 x 111% 1.52 +0.15

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Monday September 24

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Boston Red Sox are facing a RHP at home (Dylan Bundy BAL who has faced 709 batters). On FanDuel the Red Sox are currently putting up 2.49 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Dylan Bundy is currently allowing 126% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.13 (2.49 x 126%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Red Sox RHP at home Dylan Bundy BAL 709 2.49 x 126% 3.13 +0.65 1.89 x 125% 2.36 +0.47
Astros RHP on road Marco Estrada TOR 604 2.32 x 123% 2.85 +0.53 1.75 x 121% 2.12 +0.37
Angels RHP at home Adrian Sampson TEX 45 2.34 x 118% 2.76 +0.42 1.77 x 120% 2.12 +0.35
Giants RHP at home Bryan Mitchell SDP 302 2.01 x 128% 2.56 +0.55 1.53 x 126% 1.93 +0.40
Rockies RHP at home Zach Eflin PHI 532 2.37 x 103% 2.45 +0.08 1.81 x 103% 1.87 +0.06
Indians RHP on road Dylan Covey CHW 492 2.16 x 112% 2.42 +0.25 1.64 x 110% 1.80 +0.16
Athletics LHP on road James Paxton SEA 607 2.37 x 93% 2.21 -0.16 1.80 x 93% 1.68 -0.12
Yankees TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 2.17 x 100% 2.17 +0.00 1.64 x 100% 1.64 +0.00
Pirates LHP on road Cole Hamels CHC 753 2.09 x 103% 2.15 +0.06 1.59 x 103% 1.64 +0.05
Rays TBD at home TBD/Bullpen NYY – 2.14 x 100% 2.14 +0.00 1.63 x 100% 1.63 +0.00
Dodgers LHP on road Robbie Ray ARI 483 2.15 x 97% 2.08 -0.07 1.63 x 95% 1.55 -0.08
Cardinals TBD at home TBD/Bullpen MIL – 2.04 x 100% 2.04 +0.00 1.56 x 100% 1.56 +0.00
Mariners RHP at home Daniel Mengden OAK 456 1.98 x 100% 1.98 +0.00 1.53 x 100% 1.53 +0.00
Orioles RHP on road Nathan Eovaldi BOS 428 1.93 x 101% 1.94 +0.02 1.49 x 101% 1.51 +0.02
Rangers RHP on road Felix Pena LAA 362 2.01 x 97% 1.95 -0.06 1.53 x 97% 1.49 -0.04
Phillies LHP on road Tyler Anderson COL 710 1.71 x 112% 1.91 +0.20 1.32 x 111% 1.46 +0.14
Cubs RHP at home Jameson Taillon PIT 733 2.17 x 87% 1.88 -0.29 1.65 x 89% 1.47 -0.18
Blue Jays LHP at home Dallas Keuchel HOU 838 2.00 x 93% 1.86 -0.14 1.53 x 94% 1.44 -0.09
Marlins RHP on road Stephen Strasburg WSN 499 1.90 x 98% 1.85 -0.05 1.47 x 98% 1.44 -0.03
White Sox RHP at home Corey Kluber CLE 792 2.12 x 85% 1.80 -0.32 1.63 x 87% 1.41 -0.21
Padres LHP on road Derek Holland SFG 689 1.87 x 96% 1.78 -0.08 1.46 x 95% 1.39 -0.07
Brewers RHP on road Jack Flaherty STL 579 2.09 x 84% 1.75 -0.34 1.61 x 83% 1.34 -0.27
Diamondbacks LHP at home Clayton Kershaw LAD 603 2.16 x 79% 1.69 -0.46 1.66 x 81% 1.35 -0.32
Nationals RHP at home Sandy Alcantara MIA 96 2.25 x 74% 1.67 -0.57 1.70 x 73% 1.24 -0.46

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Thursday September 13

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Kansas City Royals are facing a LHP at home (Stephen Gonsalves MIN who has faced 72 batters). On FanDuel the Royals are currently putting up 1.75 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP at home and Stephen Gonsalves is currently allowing 180% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.15 (1.75 x 180%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Royals LHP at home Stephen Gonsalves MIN 72 1.75 x 180% 3.15 +1.40 1.37 x 173% 2.36 +1.00
Athletics RHP on road Dylan Bundy BAL 658 2.44 x 128% 3.12 +0.68 1.85 x 126% 2.34 +0.49
Red Sox RHP at home Sam Gaviglio TOR 461 2.52 x 115% 2.89 +0.37 1.91 x 115% 2.19 +0.28
Marlins LHP on road Jason Vargas NYM 333 2.09 x 132% 2.76 +0.67 1.60 x 131% 2.10 +0.50
Mariners RHP on road Odrisamer Despaigne LAA 153 2.15 x 127% 2.74 +0.59 1.66 x 124% 2.06 +0.40
Mets RHP at home Jeff Brigham MIA 17 1.90 x 139% 2.64 +0.75 1.45 x 131% 1.90 +0.45
Angels RHP at home Mike Leake SEA 721 2.36 x 103% 2.44 +0.08 1.78 x 105% 1.87 +0.09
Orioles LHP at home Brett Anderson OAK 266 2.05 x 102% 2.10 +0.05 1.59 x 104% 1.65 +0.06
Twins RHP on road Heath Fillmyer KCR 262 2.01 x 106% 2.13 +0.11 1.54 x 105% 1.61 +0.07
Blue Jays LHP on road Eduardo Rodriguez BOS 483 2.03 x 90% 1.83 -0.20 1.55 x 92% 1.42 -0.13
Dodgers LHP on road Austin Gomber STL 262 2.09 x 86% 1.80 -0.29 1.58 x 87% 1.38 -0.21
Cardinals LHP at home Clayton Kershaw LAD 545 2.01 x 77% 1.54 -0.47 1.53 x 79% 1.22 -0.32

Other Games (Not Main Slate)

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Marlins LHP on road Steven Matz NYM 571 2.09 x 105% 2.19 +0.10 1.60 x 104% 1.66 +0.06
Nationals LHP at home Mike Montgomery CHC 463 2.36 x 90% 2.13 -0.23 1.78 x 92% 1.64 -0.14
Cubs RHP on road Joe Ross WSN – 2.08 x 100% 2.08 +0.00 1.59 x 100% 1.59 +0.00
Rockies RHP at home Clay Buchholz ARI 393 2.36 x 74% 1.75 -0.61 1.80 x 77% 1.39 -0.41
Diamondbacks LHP on road Kyle Freeland COL 734 2.10 x 82% 1.72 -0.38 1.60 x 84% 1.35 -0.25
Mets RHP at home Sandy Alcantara MIA 48 1.90 x 54% 1.02 -0.88 1.45 x 54% 0.79 -0.66
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