My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The Minnesota Twins are facing a RHP at home (Spencer Turnbull DET who has faced 22 batters). On FanDuel the Twins are currently putting up 2.34 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Spencer Turnbull is currently allowing 144% more PPA than the MLB average (2.11 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.39 (2.34 x 144%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.
When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.
It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
Main Slate
Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced | ![]() |
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FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.11 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61 | ||||||||
PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
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RHP at home | Spencer Turnbull DET | 22 | 2.34 x 144% | 3.39 | +1.04 | 1.77 x 135% | 2.39 | +0.62 |
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RHP at home | Jimmy Yacabonis BAL | 144 | 2.50 x 126% | 3.16 | +0.66 | 1.90 x 124% | 2.36 | +0.46 |
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RHP at home | Yovani Gallardo TEX | 380 | 2.34 x 132% | 3.10 | +0.76 | 1.77 x 130% | 2.30 | +0.53 |
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RHP on road | Matt Koch ARI | 341 | 2.40 x 111% | 2.67 | +0.26 | 1.81 x 112% | 2.02 | +0.22 |
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RHP on road | Sam Gaviglio TOR | 498 | 2.33 x 114% | 2.67 | +0.34 | 1.76 x 115% | 2.01 | +0.26 |
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RHP on road | Mike Leake SEA | 772 | 2.42 x 103% | 2.48 | +0.07 | 1.83 x 105% | 1.91 | +0.08 |
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RHP at home | Vince Velasquez PHI | 609 | 2.39 x 104% | 2.50 | +0.10 | 1.82 x 103% | 1.87 | +0.05 |
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RHP at home | Jeff Brigham MIA | 58 | 2.26 x 110% | 2.48 | +0.22 | 1.72 x 106% | 1.82 | +0.10 |
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LHP at home | Gio Gonzalez MIL | 710 | 2.38 x 101% | 2.42 | +0.04 | 1.80 x 101% | 1.82 | +0.02 |
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RHP on road | James Shields CHW | 843 | 2.17 x 109% | 2.37 | +0.20 | 1.65 x 108% | 1.78 | +0.13 |
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RHP at home | Chris Archer PIT | 614 | 2.16 x 108% | 2.33 | +0.17 | 1.64 x 108% | 1.77 | +0.13 |
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RHP on road | Chad Bettis COL | 496 | 2.01 x 114% | 2.30 | +0.29 | 1.53 x 113% | 1.73 | +0.20 |
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TBD on road | TBD/Bullpen TBR | – | 2.17 x 100% | 2.17 | +0.00 | 1.64 x 100% | 1.64 | +0.00 |
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RHP on road | Chris Stratton SFG | 587 | 1.91 x 112% | 2.13 | +0.22 | 1.47 x 111% | 1.64 | +0.16 |
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RHP on road | Matt Shoemaker LAA | 97 | 2.00 x 107% | 2.15 | +0.14 | 1.53 x 105% | 1.60 | +0.07 |
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LHP on road | Austin Gomber STL | 305 | 2.18 x 95% | 2.07 | -0.11 | 1.66 x 96% | 1.59 | -0.07 |
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LHP at home | Robbie Erlin SDP | 418 | 1.94 x 101% | 1.96 | +0.03 | 1.50 x 103% | 1.54 | +0.04 |
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LHP on road | Mike Montgomery CHC | 503 | 2.10 x 90% | 1.89 | -0.22 | 1.60 x 91% | 1.47 | -0.14 |
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RHP at home | Luis Severino NYY | 757 | 2.10 x 89% | 1.87 | -0.23 | 1.61 x 91% | 1.46 | -0.15 |
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RHP on road | Noah Syndergaard NYM | 591 | 2.15 x 85% | 1.84 | -0.31 | 1.64 x 88% | 1.44 | -0.20 |
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RHP at home | Joshua James HOU | 64 | 2.35 x 78% | 1.83 | -0.52 | 1.78 x 77% | 1.38 | -0.40 |
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LHP at home | Brett Anderson OAK | 306 | 1.80 x 98% | 1.78 | -0.03 | 1.41 x 100% | 1.41 | +0.00 |
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RHP on road | Kohl Stewart MIN | 138 | 1.80 x 99% | 1.79 | -0.01 | 1.40 x 98% | 1.38 | -0.02 |
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RHP at home | Touki Toussaint ATL | 98 | 1.91 x 93% | 1.79 | -0.12 | 1.46 x 89% | 1.29 | -0.17 |
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RHP at home | Walker Buehler LAD | 495 | 2.03 x 76% | 1.55 | -0.49 | 1.54 x 77% | 1.18 | -0.36 |
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RHP at home | Trevor Bauer CLE | 686 | 2.10 x 73% | 1.52 | -0.57 | 1.61 x 74% | 1.19 | -0.42 |
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LHP on road | David Price BOS | 699 | 1.58 x 93% | 1.46 | -0.11 | 1.25 x 93% | 1.16 | -0.08 |
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RHP on road | Max Scherzer WSN | 839 | 1.90 x 77% | 1.46 | -0.44 | 1.46 x 78% | 1.14 | -0.33 |
Other Games (Not Main Slate)
Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced | ![]() |
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FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.11 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61 | ||||||||
PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
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LHP at home | Eric Skoglund KCR | 264 | 2.41 x 119% | 2.87 | +0.47 | 1.81 x 118% | 2.14 | +0.33 |
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LHP on road | Matt Harvey CIN | 642 | 1.78 x 110% | 1.96 | +0.18 | 1.37 x 111% | 1.52 | +0.15 |