Tiers of SP: Elite, Superstars and Studs | Solid Gents and Upside Plays | The Rest, Sleepers and Asleep
Speculative Plays | Don’t Drink the Water

Tier 5: The Rest

Plenty of upside can be found here if you look carefully

53. Brandon Morrow, RHP, TOR (4.49 ERA, 3.24 FIP, +1.25 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
After getting away from the nightmare that Seattle put him through over the years, Morrow used 2010 to adjust to life as a full-time starter. He finally stopped pumping fastball after fastball toward the plate (and sometimes not toward the plate as his control used to be abhorrent) and learned to mix his secondary pitches into his battle plan. He also took a bit off his fastball and cleaned up his release point of it in order to gain more control.

The battle plan worked, too. Morrow became a very useful fantasy pitcher over the last couple of months of the season as he managed to still strike hitters out at a high percentage while utilizing his newfound control to pop a few of the balloons that had been lifting his walk rate to somewhere in the vicinity of Paradise Falls.

Morrow’s fastball still has good late life and motion on it – moving inwards on right-handed hitters and away from lefties – despite his overall drop in velocity, and he’s still able to gun it up to 96-97mph when he really needs it. Also new was his ability to move the fastball effectively to both sides of the plate. With the movement on his fastball, this was a fairly useful new tool that he will need to continue to hone in the coming season.

Morrow’s secondary offerings are led by a good slider and an on-again off-again curve, and he has a change-up, but it lacks effectiveness as he’s never been comfortable with its release point. The lack of a useable change is one of the main reasons he has trouble with his control against lefties – he nibbles too much on the corners for fear they’ll hit his other stuff hard. Still, he gets strikeouts easily against hitters from both sides.

I describe all this because I want the reader to understand that I like Morrow and that I realize he does indeed have good stuff and his attack plan and control have improved dramatically in a very short time span. Still, he has a lengthy history with injury issues, he is a diabetic which wears on his durability, and people with historically bad control like Morrow used to have very rarely are able to fully turn things around so quickly. For every Randy Johnson, there are a million guys who never figure it out. Even when a pitcher looks like he has found control (like Oliver Perez circa 2004), it goes away just as quickly as it came.

Bid on Morrow to get a lot of strikeouts, have an ERA just north of 4.00 (with upside in the high 3.00’s range), and a WHIP somewhere in the 1.30’s. If you get more, that’s great. But there are enough caution flags (durability/injury issues that could contain him to well under 200 innings as well as a likelihood of regression in his BB/9) to suggest that expectations need to be properly managed. (p.s. It’s no coincidence that I have him ranked next to Volquez. I think they have similar upsides and downsides at the moment.)

54. Edinson Volquez, RHP, CIN (4.31 ERA, 4.00 FIP, +0.31 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Volquez came back from the Tommy John slab and displayed much the same skills he had in the past – elite strikeout ability combined with poor control. In addition, Volquez also added some sinking life to his fastball inducing grounders at a higher clip than ever before. The good news is that Volquez’s control comes and goes suggesting that the issue is more mechanical than simply lack of talent. The bad news is that this is one of the most maddening of skill sets to own in fantasy baseball. You can’t simply wait on Volquez to look like he’s getting hot and then ride a streak. You’ve got to take all the bad with the good he provides, and you’ve got to do it consistently (because he provides no real consistency of his own). If you can weather the WHIP storm your team will take, Volquez is a solid strikeout investment who won’t hurt you in ERA and should net a solid amount of Wins, too. There is some breakout ability here, although the control problems will probably never completely go away.

55. Homer Bailey, RHP, CIN (4.46 ERA, 3.65 FIP, +0.81 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
There were some good signs from Bailey in 2010, and while he will probably regress in either K/9 or BB/9 (or possibly both), I still think he could put up a high 3.00’s ERA along with a WHIP in the 1.30’s and 150+ K. That Cincy defense is too delightful to think Bailey doesn’t have a good shot at bettering his FIP this year. So while I think the FIP will rise with the aforementioned regressions, his ERA should still be pretty solid. There’s even a chance that Bailey ends up being similar in value to Gavin Floyd this year, so take that valuation into draft day when looking for a bargain.

56. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, COL (3.28 ERA, 3.54 FIP, -0.26 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Chacin’s a good source of strikeouts, and even if his ERA goes up half a run or more with regression, he’s a worthwhile investment this season. Bid on a high 3’s ERA, low 1.30’s WHIP, and plenty of strikeouts, but with an innings cap somewhere around 175.

57. Mike Minor, LHP, ATL (5.98 ERA, 3.77 FIP, +2.21 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
I like Minor a lot as he combines the craftiness of a veteran with the skill set of a good mid-rotation starter. His control, change-up, and velocity all point towards a possible breakout performer. But the Braves’ defense behind him is so bad that it may end up depressing Minor’s stats to the point where he looks somewhat mediocre. Even on a neutral defensive team, I would feel pretty safe in projecting Minor with a high 3’s to low 4 ERA with a WHIP in the 1.20’s. But with the Braves behind him, I think it’s much more likely that we’ll see his ERA end up in the 4’s and his WHIP closer to 1.30 than to 1.20. He should win a rotation spot outright, and if he does he could throw 175+ innings of good baseball. It’s just too bad the Braves’ defense may end up causing Minor’s (and his owners’) hair to gray prematurely.

58. Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX (2.73 ERA, 2.96 FIP, -0.23 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I love him as a closer. I love his potential as a starter, but longer term – not in 2011. I’m intrigued to see what the (probable) loss in velocity does to his IFFB% and also what it does to his HR/9 against lefties. I don’t think he has the pinpoint command with his stuff at this point to make up for that velo dip (if and when it occurs). And that means he’ll either nibble the corners too much, especially against lefties, and pad his walk total well over 3.00 or he’ll serve up too many homeruns for our liking (or both). I’m also assuming his strikeout rate dips, too, so then you’re looking at a starter whose K/BB is closer to 2 than 4 and whose HR/9 ratio should increase fairly dramatically. Given the bevy of good pitching in the majors right now, I don’t think Feliz is a guy I invest too heavily in as a starter in 2011 if I’m a fantasy owner. He’s in my Top 60, but if others want to bet on the upside, let them. His inning cap will be too low as a starter to really blow away the competition. As an aside, Feliz is a guy for whom I’d love to figure out Pitch F/X. His ability to induce pop-ups interests me enough to wonder what it is about his fastball that gets so many of them. And will that change when he’s no longer able to pump everything in there at 97-99 mph? Color me intrigued.

59. Ervin Santana, RHP, LAA (3.92 ERA, 4.33 FIP, -0.41 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
I’d put the over/under at 190 innings and 150 K with a 4.00 ERA and WHIP above 1.30. There’s always going to be potential with Santana, but he’s a bit of an injury risk. The upside at this point comes more from my belief in Bourjos being a flyball Hoover than from Santana returning to 2008 form.

60. James McDonald, RHP, PIT (4.02 ERA, 3.12 FIP, +0.90 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
McDonald is an obvious sleeper, which, I suppose, means he’s not much of a sleeper at all. Even with a poor defense behind him, he’s got a solid shot at a high 3’s ERA and a lot of strikeouts. Why the Dodgers basically gave up on him is anyone’s guess, but he’s got legit talent and has had it for a while now. The Pirates actually intend to give him an opportunity to use it, too, so it should be fun to see what McDonald can do with the confidence of the organization behind him. The upside here is a 3.70 ERA with 170+ K. I’d bet on the under with that awful defense behind him, but there’s certainly a chance he’s a big asset.

61. Tim Hudson, RHP, ATL (2.83 ERA, 4.06 FIP, -1.23 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
He was lucky last year. There’s no two ways about it. His BABIP will normalize this year (and possibly even be bad due to his crappy defense) and his strand rate will fall. And the world will be whole again. I’d bid for an ERA near 3.70+, a WHIP in the mid-to-high 1.20’s and not very many strikeouts. And there’s downside due to the defense and all the balls that Hudson allows to be put into play.

62. Scott Baker, RHP, MIN (4.49 ERA, 4.04 FIP, +0.45 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Minnesota’s new park is interesting in that it severely depressed homeruns in its inaugural season while still allowing runs at a fairly neutral clip. This should be helpful for the likes of Baker and Kevin Slowey especially (unless the Twins’ management decides to bench them both in favor of Nick Blackburn and a Blackburn clone they’ve been growing in their control pitcher Twins lab over the off-season). I like Baker to improve the ERA enough this season to not hurt you (think 4.00) while becoming a major asset in WHIP again (high 1.10’s or low 1.20’s). And oh yeah, he doesn’t hurt you in strikeouts. Hooray for control pitchers with mild strikeout ability!

63. Edwin Jackson, RHP, CHW (4.47 ERA, 3.88 FIP, +0.59 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Jackson went from being in a bad ballpark with a good defense behind him to being in a bad ballpark with a bad defense. Sucks for him. Don’t make it suck for you, too. He’s got obvious upside, but it’s like playing hot potato with a hand grenade in that park and that defense. I plan on walking away from the 2011 season with both my hands intact. How about you?

64. Kyle Drabek, RHP, TOR (4.76 ERA, 4.08 FIP, + 0.68 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor:
Drabek has elite groundball ratios which will make up for a lot of mistakes including defensive miscues and a ballpark that plays like it’s a little league field whenever a ball is hit in the air. He’s unlikely to ever be a severe strikeout artist, but there’s room for growth beyond the 6.35 K/9 he put up last year in limited time. Pay for a 4ish ERA and 1.30+ WHIP with a healthy amount of strikeouts. The issue isn’t his talent, but the perception of his current abilities and breakout potential. There are better values out there in mixed leagues as many people will pay for Drabek’s “upside” due to his top prospect status. I doubt he’s worth the hype in 2011, though, as his defense, park, and growth curve are all working against him.

65. Matt Garza, RHP, CHC (3.91 ERA, 4.46 FIP, -0.55 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Garza goes from a great pitcher’s park and excellent defense to a great hitter’s park with mediocre defense. Those expecting much improvement from him simply because of his shift from the AL to the NL are in for a rude awakening. I’ll be surprised if he has an ERA south of 4.00 or a WHIP below 1.30 this season. Also worth noting is that he works slower on the mound than my constantly shortening attention span can handle. WGN should provide a delayed feed for Cubs games this year so that they can edit out Garza’s human rain delay tendencies.

66. Randy Wolf, LHP, MIL (4.17 ERA, 4.84 FIP, -0.67 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Wolf had an abysmal first half last year but followed it up with a somewhat hopeful second half performance. His defense is even worse this year, though, and I am less optimistic than some for a potential total rebound because of it. A 4.20+ ERA, a low-to-mid 1.30’s WHIP, and 150 strikeouts seems like a decent bet, but there’s some downside too, if the defense plays poorly for him.

67. Travis Wood, LHP, CIN (3.51 ERA, 3.47 FIP, +0.04 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Dusty Baker Factor:
He’s good, although perhaps not quite as good as his WHIP indicated last year. I think he’s in line for 160+ innings worth of mid-3.00’s ERA, a low 1.20’s WHIP, and 140+ K’s. I like him plenty, and that sensational defense in Cincy gives me confidence that he’ll be at least as good as his FIP in all likelihood. Bid confidently here. Just remember that Dusty is in charge here, which is always terrifying beyond the capacity for rational thought.

68. Carlos Zambrano, RHP, CHC (3.19 ERA, 3.79 FIP, -0.60 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
He has pronounced himself anger-free. I expect the new Zen-Brano to be much like the old – slightly overrated in some circles while simultaneously being slightly underrated in others. He’s still got a good shot at a high 3’s ERA and a mid 1.30’s WHIP. The big difference now, though, is that Zambrano is no longer the durable workhorse he once was. Expecting more than 170 innings at this point seems a bit rash, so make sure you’re taking into account the lowered counting stats in accordance with the drop in total innings.

69. Brett Cecil, LHP, TOR (4.22 ERA, 4.08 FIP, +0.14 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
There’s actually a bit of upside in Cecil’s strikeout rate, but I think most small improvements he makes will likely be masked by a mediocre defense, an uptick in BABIP, and a bad ballpark. Bid for a near repeat in his 2010 as he replaces any lost Wins with extra strikeouts and an innings increase.

70. Clayton Richard, LHP, SD (3.75 ERA, 3.80 FIP, -0.05 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Richard went from fantasy afterthought to person of interest once he was dealt to San Diego in the Jake Peavy trade. Petco + Good Defense + Decent Peripherals = Richard being a solid asset in fantasy. He could easily repeat his ERA of last year with a slightly better WHIP in the process. I’d take the certainty of his mid-level skill set over the breakout potential of a guy like Bud Norris.

71. Aaron Harang, RHP, SD (5.32 ERA, 4.68 FIP, +0.64 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I wonder if Harang going to San Diego had more to do with getting into Petco or if he just wanted to be 3,000 miles away from Dusty Baker at any given moment. Harang has gone on record to say he never felt the same after Baker inexplicably used Harang in a lengthy 2008 relief outing that served very little purpose other than to amuse Baker’s (childlike) mind. Dusty Dice indeed. Anyway, Harang has a chance to be a real bargain for almost any owner now that he’s in Petco Cavern. I’d pay for a 4.00 ERA, a low 1.30’s WHIP and 140+ K, but there’s upside even beyond that line. Injury caveats exist at this point as Harang’s Innings Pitched trend has gone downward ever since the relief outing, but there’s room for optimism far out West. Sign me up for Harang in 2011.

72. Cory Luebke, LHP, SD (4.08 ERA, 4.44 FIP, -0.36)
Defense:
Park Factor:
There are plenty of reasons to like a guy like Luebke, not the least of which is the Grand Canyon-sized park coupled with the delightful defense behind him. In addition, Luebke’s peripherals are extremely solid (good K/9, good control, and above average groundball ratios) and he’s a lefty with a decent strikeout pitch against both left-handed and right-handed hitters. Luebke has mid-rotation potential once given a full-time rotation spot, and that means he’s got even greater fantasy potential given Petco’s proclivity to produce fantasy gods. He may not get an opportunity at the outset of the season, but bank on his abilities more so than the Padres’ decision-making whims. Keeper league owners should scoop him up if at all possible.

73. Derek Holland, LHP, TEX (4.08 ERA, 4.02 FIP, -0.06 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I’m still a pretty avid Holland fan. Given the very good defense in Texas, I could see Holland putting up an ERA in the high 3’s or low 4’s with a very healthy dose of strikeouts tossed in. He needs to win a starting role, and he needs to refine his control. But there’s plenty of upside here for fantasy value. He’s still a breakout candidate, make no mistake.

74. Brad Penny, RHP, DET (3.23 ERA, 3.40 FIP, -0.17 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Penny, if not on the DL, is still an effective pitcher, although not as strong of an asset in strikeouts as he used to be. Detroit does play a bit better for right-handed pitchers than southpaws in terms of homeruns given up, so that’s a nice little bonus for him. That combined with Detroit’s solid defense and Penny’s newfound groundball proclivities make it pretty easy to project a low 4.00’s ERA with a low 1.30’s WHIP. And there’s some small upside to beat those numbers, too. Just don’t expect many strikeouts.

75. Bronson Arroyo, RHP, CIN (3.88 ERA, 4.62 FIP, -0.74 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
The Reds gave Arroyo a hefty 3-year contract extension this off-season when they should have been giving their defense the extension instead. Arroyo is a pitch-to-contact pitcher with very little in the way of strikeout ability left in his game at this point, but that could play to the advantage of savvy fantasy owners. I think it’s likely he’ll out-produce his FIP again due to the stellar defense behind him (think a lot closer to a 4.00 ERA than the 4.50+ that his FIP will suggest), and his WHIP has a solid shot at being in the 1.20’s, too. In other words, a guy like Arroyo may actually be underrated in sabermetric leagues due to the low strikeout rate and high FIP. While Arroyo’s real life value may be a bit of a question mark, I think he’s an underrated asset in fantasy leagues in 2011 with all the defensive help we can expect behind him coupled with his good control. Just find your K’s somewhere else.

76. Kevin Slowey, RHP, MIN (4.45 ERA, 4.05 FIP, +0.40 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
What’s baffling to me is that, as of right now, Minnesota looks to be contemplating giving up on Slowey and his potential for the rock solid mediocrity of Nick Blackburn. If I’m a GM on another team, I’m making phone calls into the Minneapolis area over the next few weeks to see what I can work out. (Imagine, for example, if the flyball/homerun prone Slowey ended up on Dave Duncan’s doorstep gift-wrapped with a note saying “Challenge: Extreme Flyball Pitcher”). He does have an injury bug which he can’t quite seem to shake, but Slowey has obvious value in WHIP and strikeouts for fantasy owners even if he does give up too many homeruns (which in turn blow up his ERA from his FIP). I still like him plenty, and as long as he doesn’t go to a homer-happy hitter’s paradise, I’d invest in him for this season.

77. Jon Niese, LHP, NYM (4.20 ERA, 4.12 FIP, +0.08 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I’ve liked him since the minors, and I see no reason to stop now. I’m looking for a 3.90 ERA, a WHIP in the low-to-mid 1.30’s, and 150 K. That’s a useful pitcher in most any format.

78. Jair Jurrjens, RHP, ATL (4.64 ERA, 4.13 FIP, +0.51 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
While it’s possible Jurrjens can still put up a FIP slightly under 4.00, I think Atlanta’s “defense” will cost him any chance at having his ERA that low. There’s some wiggle room for value if people think last year was the new reality for Jurrjens’ performance level (in fact, I think last year is probably the absolute floor), but don’t bid too heavily for more than 175 innings of production.

79. Jake Peavy, RHP, CHW (4.63 ERA, 4.03 FIP, +0.60 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
There’s still some skill there, but banking on anything more than 100 innings seems like a fool’s bet. I wonder if Peavy dreams about Petco every night or only on nights he throws at U.S. Cellular? And are the Petco dreams like the ex-girlfriend that broke up with you but you would still date in a heartbeat if they came back dreams? Or are they more adventuresome where Peavy speeds a motorcycle across the outfield in Petco and the trip ends up taking him as long as a cross-country ride – sort of a trippy baseball incarnation of Easy Rider? Oh to be a fly on the couch of Peavy’s therapist’s office.

80. Jorge de la Rosa, RHP, COL (4.22 ERA, 4.28 FIP, -0.06 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He’s in a bad ballpark, he walks a lot of people, and the defense behind him isn’t very good. You do the math. He has upside due to the K’s, but I think you should temper enthusiasm as he’s not a very good bet to stay healthy or help you in much of anything else.

81. Bud Norris, RHP, HOU (4.92 ERA, 4.18 FIP, +0.74 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
There’s some reason for cautious optimism here. Norris continues to have an inflated BABIP which could improve a bit this year with a somewhat improved Houston defense. And his walk rate will likely go down this year somewhere closer to 4.00 than the 4.50 he posted last season. He’s probably never going to be an asset in WHIP, but with a lot of strikeouts plus a not-zero chance at a 4.00ish ERA, Norris has value. His upside is 180+ strikeouts with a low 4.00’s ERA, and I think any fantasy owner would love to have that from the 308th pick (via ADP) in his draft.

82. Anibal Sanchez, RHP, FLA (3.55 ERA, 3.32 FIP, +0.23 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Sanchez was finally healthy last year for the first time since 2006, and he ended up with a pretty good-looking stat line. His HR/FB rate was eerily low, though, and is very unlikely to sustain into the new season. Sure, he could be healthy this year and put up a near 4.00 ERA (with a normalized HR/FB) with 150 K and a middling WHIP, but he’s probably a better bet to throw 120 innings than he is 180. Are you really willing to risk your valuable draft day dollars on someone with this much of an injury-plagued past? I know I’m not.

83. Derek Lowe, RHP, ATL (4.00 ERA, 3.81 FIP, +0.19 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Woe is the day that a pitcher so reliant on dominant groundball tendencies ends up with a team that can’t catch the ball for crap. I expect another very solid FIP from Lowe, but the Braves’ fielders should hinder him from providing an actual useful ERA or WHIP for all but deep leagues. If I were Lowe, I’d try to become a little more fascist this year in the interest of self-preservation.

84. Joel Pineiro, RHP, LAA (3.84 ERA, 3.80 FIP, +0.04 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Good on Pineiro for keeping Dave Duncan’s techniques in his noggin’ even after leaving St. Louis. I would bid confidently on Pineiro to repeat last year’s numbers only with 180+ innings instead of 150.

85. Jeff Niemann, RHP, TB (4.39 ERA, 4.58 FIP, -0.19 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Niemann’s a decent back-of-the-rotation guy for Tampa and for fantasy owners. He doesn’t do anything too tremendously well, but he’s also not terrible at anything. Boring, sure, but not without his merits. The only issue I have with him is that he’s not as durable as I’d like my back-end starters to be, so be wary of his strikeout total not being as high as one would like due to lack of overall innings. I put the over/under at 160 innings for him this year, and if Tampa Bay fans who want to see all their top pitching prospects have their voodoo way, I think that’s the safest number to expect.

86. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, WAS (4.94 ERA, 5.85 FIP, -0.91 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Zimmerman’s the real diamond in the rough (cue the Aladdin song) on the Nats’ pitching staff. His FIP last year was very misleading as his HR/9 rate was an astronomically fluky 2.32. That’s going to get better (he’s very likely to cut it by well over 50%) and all of Zimmerman’s peripheral stats suggest a good pitcher being hidden by one outlier – the ghastly homerun rate. Zimmerman strikes hitters out at an above average clip, he has good control, and he’s a bit better than average at inducing groundballs. Yes, he needs to work on his change-up – what young pitcher doesn’t (beyond the Strasburgian otherworldly creatures that haunt my soul with their awesomeness)? And sure, his approach against hitters right now is very elementary. For example, one of the reasons for the high homerun rate is that he throws way too many hittable strikes to right-handed hitters. But in the end, this is a guy with definitive upside. The upside here for 2011 is a pitcher with a high 3’s or low 4’s ERA with a WHIP in the neighborhood of 1.30. Add that to a solid number of strikeouts (I’m thinking 140 or so in 160+ innings), and I’d suggest we all rub the lamp to see if this diamond in the rough can shine.

87. Michael Pineda, RHP, SEA (Rookie)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He’s more likely than most rookie pitchers to be an asset immediately as he possesses very good control to go with his excellent fastball. Combine that package with Safeco and the Mariners’ excellent defense and I think he could be a fantasy aid in WHIP and K sooner than later. I do believe he’ll be a bit homerun prone as he throws his fastball around the plate too much. Until he refines his secondary stuff, this is likely to be the case.

88. Mark Buehrle, LHP, CHW (4.28 ERA, 3.96 FIP, +0.32 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Like all the White Sox pitchers, I feel like you can expect them to do a little worse than you’d like given the poor park factor and negative defense. But still, you pretty much know what you’re getting with Buehrle – not many K’s along with some hope that he can out-produce his FIP due to solid fielding behind him. That hope should be slimmer than most this season if the poor defense holds up.

89. Randy Wells, RHP, CHC (4.26 ERA, 3.93 FIP, +0.33 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
He’s a pretty decent pitcher. If he gets a full-time gig, he could put up another ERA near 4.00 with a WHIP in the mid-to-high 1.30’s and 140+ strikeouts. That’s not totally sneeze worthy in the right type of leagues. His upside is limited by Wrigley and a middling defense, though.

90. Wade Davis, RHP, TB (4.07 ERA, 4.83 FIP, -0.76 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He has no idea what he’s doing against lefties at the moment. Until he hones a change-up or his control begets command, I don’t think he’s a safe investment for much more than some strikeouts, extra Wins and the standard middling 4.00+ ERA/1.30’s WHIP.