blake bortles Archives | DraftBuddy.com

I might have Derek Carr ranked a little high but it sure seems like he is getting drafted at a good value based on two of my recent drafts – QB12 and QB13.

I should have done this from Day 1 when I published my 2017 fantasy football rankings, but with us now in the final month before the season starts, better late than never. Here are news and notes to explain changes to my rankings, so you have a little more insight into what I am thinking ranking players.

Starting from the bottom up, I adjusted the quarterback rankings including adding Christian Hackenberg, since he will likely start for the New York Jets at some point this season. I shifted the tiers so Tier 8 is at Rank #33, the start of the projected backups, which is slightly odd since the one exception is Tom Savage at #33, still the projected Week 1 starter for the Houston Texans.

Tier 7 shifted up to include Mike Glennon after he struggled badly in the Chicago Bears preseason opener. Tier 6 now only includes Jared Goff and Brian Hoyer – two guys with decent job security, pretty low expectations but some upside given their offensive coordinators, plus Goff got a nice boost to his receivers with the Sammy Watkins trade. I haven’t moved Goff up the rankings but I would consider him as a late backup option in best-ball leagues.

Tier 5 captured Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles, two I would consider to have less job security than the players above I originally had them grouped with. Both may post good end of season numbers, but I still think it will be a bumpy ride along the way and I am not very interested in owning either of them this season.

Tier 4 moved up to split Marcus Mariota and Philip Rivers (Tier 3) from Dak Prescott and Eli Manning. That is mostly based on upside. I would pay a fair price for Mariota or Rivers if I waited that long for my starting QB. For Prescott and Manning I would expect to get them a little cheaper in the draft. Fair to say I would much rather have a Tier 3 and above starting QB than Tier 4 and below.

I moved Jameis Winston to #6 ahead of Cam Newton because Cam still isn’t making deep throws in practice, causing mild concern. Cam’s ADP is dropping as a result. Speaking of ADP, I still don’t see much caution by fantasy players drafting Andrew Luck. Go ahead and thank you! I like the guy but the risk is outweighing the reward given his current circumstances. His receivers as a group aren’t even that good until Donte Moncrief proves himself more.

Added the “target” icon to Russell Wilson as I am feeling more comfortable with him as an above average starter, and possibly more, at an acceptable draft cost. Derek Carr doesn’t move from my #4 spot for now but interesting to note I’ve drafted him in two straight drafts as QB13 (!) in the 10th round and QB12 at the top of the 11th round in another. Maybe I’ve got him a bit high since he offers up little to no rushing stats, but on a trending up team with two excellent receivers – assuming Amari Cooper is fully healthy and further progresses – I feel pretty confident in Carr.

Player notes were reviewed and many added for all significantly ranked players.

In a recent MFL10 draft, Mike selected Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson at 1.01, and Tony took Green Bay Packers RB Eddie Lacy at 1.06. Check out how the rest of their respective drafts played out.

A great way to practice drafting for your upcoming fantasy football drafts, and to get a handle on Average Draft Position (ADP) for players (not to mention, they are a lot of fun) is to enter an MFL10 fantasy league, hosted by MyFantasyLeague.com.

The format is a redraft league with performance plus PPR scoring. The starting lineup is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE) and 1 DEF for 9 total starters, and 20 roster spots.

MFL10s are draft-only leagues – no trading, no free agency waiver add/drops – and “best ball” scoring. Due to the best ball scoring, NFL players with high weekly variance might get drafted a bit earlier than usual.

Fantasy owners benefit in weeks these players blow up, while the player is automatically benched in weeks they disappear. These riskier players do take up a valuable roster spot however, so all in all, MFL10s are still a good gauge on where players get drafted in our regular fantasy leagues.

Recently, Draft Buddy creator Mike MacGregor and I participated in an MFL10 draft with other industry experts. Let’s take a look at each of our teams, post-draft. Draft Buddy users can review all of the teams in a copy of Draft Buddy that Mike uploaded to our members area that he used during the draft.

Mike: 1.01 RB Adrian Peterson, MIN

It is hard to go wrong with the first overall pick in a redraft. I expect Peterson to have a monster year. I’m thinking “revenge” for 2014. He will be fed every game and no signs point to him slowing down any time soon.

Tony: 1.06 RB Eddie Lacy, GB

Lacy is among the top three running backs in the league, so for him to fall to me at sixth overall, I gladly scooped him up. He is young, he doesn’t have much competition challenging him, and with the best quarterback in the league throwing passes, what is there not to like about Lacy?

Mike: 2.12 RB Justin Forsett, BAL

Forsett was the 2014 breakout candidate of the year as he carried the Ravens backfield after the Ray Rice controversy. With the addition of offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, who helped Matt Forte earn the most receptions by a running back in a season last year, Forsett is in line for a bigger receiving role, which is gold for PPR leagues. Finally, according to Pro Football Focus offensive guard rankings, the Ravens have two in the top 10, meaning Forsett should see some big holes to run through.

Tony: 2.07 WR Calvin Johnson, DET

I will gladly take Calvin Johnson here. Last year, Johnson was the first overall wide receiver taken. Yes, injuries have limited him the past few years, but he is still a freak athlete on a team that loves to throw the ball. Johnson says he is the healthiest he has felt in years, and all signs point to a rebound year.

Mike: 3.01 WR T.Y. Hilton, IND

Hilton is the lead receiver for one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Andrew Luck. With the addition of running back Frank Gore to help keep defenses worried about the run, Hilton should see less defensive coverage. I expect him to finish with a career high in touchdowns, topping his 2014 total of 7.

Tony: 3.06 WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

Hopkins went into 2014 as a sleeper and he definitely lived up to that label. He finished as WR14, even with the questionable quarterbacking he had throwing to him. With running back Arian Foster out with a groin injury, Hopkins will see a ton of targets this year as the Texans will likely be playing from behind. I expect Hopkins to finish in the top 15 receivers again.

Mike: 4.12 TE Greg Olsen, CAR

I rank Olsen as my third overall tight end. He continuously produces for the Panthers. With a healthy running game and the addition of Devin Funchess on the outside, Olsen should find plenty of room in the middle of the field.

Tony: 4.07 WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN

Sanders helped form one of the best wide receiver duos in the league in 2014. It helps that he has the great Peyton Manning throwing to him. With Demaryius Thomas continuing to demand double coverage, I expect Sanders to have another great year as long as Manning can continue to sling the ball.

Mike: 5.01 WR Jarvis Landry, MIA

Landry was one of the most underappreciated rookie wide receivers in 2014. He finished with 84 receptions on 112 targets, which is an insane 75% catch rate. That translates to a PPR machine. If quarterback Ryan Tannehill continues to take the next step forward, Landry is in for a big season.

Tony: 5.06 RB Shane Vereen, NYG

I have a lot of stock in Vereen this year. Come the end of the year, I expect Vereen to finish as the best running back for the Giants. Not only will he lead the backs in receptions, but, as training camp reports suggest, he will also split the running duties as well. With rookie phenom Odell Beckham Jr. earning double coverage and speedy Victor Cruz returning from injury, Vereen should have plenty of room to work.

Mike: 6.12 RB Doug Martin, TB

Martin gets another, and maybe his last, chance to be the lead back for the Buccaneers. He is their best running option. Training camp reports suggest he has lost weight and body fat in preparation for a major role in the offense. A motivated Martin could produce rewards at the flex option for fantasy teams.

Tony: 6.07 QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

Roethlisberger had back-to-back 6 touchdown games in 2014, which is unbelievable. His offensive weapons have only gotten better in 2015. Despite the two-game suspension for running back Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers will be one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL this year. I will gladly take Roethlisberger as my quarterback.

Mike: 7.01 WR Mike Wallace, MIN

Mike Wallace is one of my candidates for sleeper status in 2015, or very underrated if you don’t care for the term sleeper. All the hype in Minnesota is around Charles Johnson, but Wallace is not a guy to forget about. Teddy Bridgewater, who I expect to finish in the top 10 quarterbacks this year, has a healthy Peterson back to keep defenses honest, which means there should be plenty of room for burner Wallace to get open on deep routes.

Tony: 7.06 WR Roddy White, ATL

An oldie but a goodie, White, even though he has a slew of knee injuries the past few years, continues to produce worthy fantasy stats. He may not start the season healthy as his knee is still bothering him, but when healthy, the veteran can still play. In my opinion, a move to the slot may help White thrive as he winds down his career.

Mike: 8.12 RB Rashad Jennings, NYG

Jennings should rotate with Vereen as the lead running back, but as I stated about my 6th round pick, I like Vereen to assume more work than Jennings this year. I expect the Giants to do very well this year, providing adequate opportunities for both players.

Tony: 8.07 TE Martellus Bennett, CHI

Despite holdout talks during OTAs, Bennett has shown up to training camp and been blowing new head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase away. Bennett has proven he can handle a big workload. I like him to finish within the top five this year.

Mike: 9.01 WR Steve Smith, BAL

We have two great veteran choices here in the ninth round. Both Smith and Boldin should continue to lead their respective teams in targets this year. Smith is the lead receiver for the Ravens with only a rookie as the second option.

Tony: 9.06 WR Anquan Boldin, SF

Boldin now has Torrey Smith opposite him, which should help spread the coverage out, allowing Boldin to utilize his great skills.

Mike: 10.12 QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA

Another player with a lot of hype is Tannehill. He has great offensive weapons that should make 2015 a career year for him as long as he continues taking those steps forward.

Tony: 10.07 RB Roy Helu, OAK

I am drinking the Helu Kool-Aid this offseason. I loved him as a sleeper for the Redskins when he came out of college, but Alfred Morris broke out as the lead back. I am not a believer in the Raiders lead back Latavius Murray. I expect Helu to start as the pass catching back, but to make his way to the starter role by year-end.

Mike: 11.01 TE Delanie Walker, TEN

Walker is a very good backup to have on your fantasy team, and he could even suffice as a starter in deep leagues. The Titans are in a transition year with rookie franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota now driving the offense, and Walker could be utilized as a safety valve until the offense gets acclimated.

Tony: 11.06 WR Devin Funchess, CAR

Funchess will play opposite Kelvin Benjamin. Both receivers provide big, athletic targets for quarterback Cam Newton. With Benjamin warranting more coverage, Funchess could be a primary target, especially in the red zone, for Newton.

Mike: 12.12 QB Carson Palmer, ARI

Prior to tearing his ACL, Palmer was having a Pro Bowl season, with 62.9% completions, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions through six games. In 2015, he looks to finish what he started in 2014.

Tony: 12.07 RB Knile Davis, KC

If an injury were to happen to all top five running backs (boy do I not wish that to ever happen), the best backup to own is Knile Davis. He has proven he can carry the rock well in support of Jamaal Charles.

Mike: 13.01 RB Fred Jackson, BUF

Jackson is the oldest running back in the NFL today. It is undetermined what role he will have in the new Bills offense under head coach Rex Ryan as training camps report indicate rookie Karlos Williams is quickly moving up the depth charts, so Jackson may be in for a position battle all year.

Tony: 13.06 QB Joe Flacco, BAL

Flacco has consistently been a mid-tier quarterback, but a more than suitable backup for this format. With Trestman now the offensive coordinator, Flacco may be asked to throw more often, which could lead to big stats.

Mike: 14.12 WR Phillip Dorsett, IND

Dorsett has quarterback Luck and receiver Hilton showing him the ropes. So much so that he has passed sophomore Donte Moncrief on the depth charts. Dorsett may have a few big games in him this year.

Tony: 14.07 TE Larry Donnell, NYG

Prior to rookie Beckham Jr. joining the active roster last season, Donnell was the hottest tight end in the NFL, even posting a three-touchdown game in Week 4. Donnell will be a serviceable tight end for my bye week.

Mike: 15.01 WR Kenny Britt, STL

Britt has had an underwhelming career in the NFL and he hopes to improve with new quarterback Nick Foles. All Rams receivers are fast and athletic, so Britt may have some stiff competition on the field.

Tony: 15.06 DEF Houston Texans

Any defense with J.J. Watt is automatically a threat for a big scoring week. The man creates a ton of sacks and turnovers, which he converts into touchdowns himself sometimes. The Texans defense will rank in the top five this year again.

Mike: 16.12 QB Blake Bortles, JAC

Bortles struggled in his rookie year in 2014. He now has more offensive weapons and reports are he has taken great strides this offseason.

Tony: 16.07 RB Javorius Allen, BAL

Rookie running back Allen may threaten Forsett as the pass catching back, especially in Trestman’s offense. As I’ve already stated, we should expect to see this offense air the ball out more, so Allen has plenty of potential in PPR leagues.

Mike: 17.01 DEF New England Patriots

The front seven players for the Patriots defense should be dominant this year. It is the defensive backs that are questionable.

Tony: 17.06 WR Josh Huff, PHI

Personally, I feel Josh Huff will earn the number two WR position this year opposite Jordan Matthews. I know rookie Nelson Agholor is there, but Huff has been dominating camp and will come extremely cheap in all drafts this year.

Mike: 18.12 DEF Indianapolis Colts

The Colts defense provides some depth at the position and they will suffice as a backup.

Tony: 18.07 WR Allen Hurns, JAC

Hurns passed Marqise Lee to deserve the number two receiver designation opposite Allen Robinson. We saw Hurns handle the number one role in 2014 quite well, so if Bortles takes that next step in 2015, I expect some big weeks for Hurns.

Mike: 19.01 WR Robert Woods, BUF

With defenses focusing on sophomore Sammy Watkins, Woods may find some open spots on the field for the Bills. He has nothing but upside.

Tony: 19.06 DEF New York Giants

The Giants defense should take a huge step forward this year with their improved linebackers and defensive backs. Let’s just hope Jason Pierre-Paul makes it back quick from his offseason hand injury.

Mike: 20.12 DEF Jacksonville Jaguars

I personally think the Jaguars are the most underrated defense in the league. They have a great linebacker corps and improved their defensive backs. The defensive line still needs improvement. Do not be surprised if they finish in the top 15 this year.

Tony: 20.07 WR Danny Amendola, NE

As my last pick, Amendola is practically free. Over the first four weeks while Tom Brady is likely suspended, Amendola should be a safety valve out of the slot for QB Jimmy Garoppolo.

Below are the final rosters for each team. Which side do you prefer, and what would you do differently constructing your best-ball MFL10 team from either of these draft spots?