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Thoughts for Final Week of Fantasy Football Drafts

August 30, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

Peyton Barber

I recommend drafting Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber given his current fantasy football draft cost

And just like that we are into the final week of fantasy football drafts. As I posted over at the FF Today Forums this morning, announcing our latest Draft Buddy projections update, today I am going to sign up for some more online drafts.

Then, I will surely be kicking myself later with all of the time required for in-season management thanks to being in too many leagues! Ah, but I love to draft! Best ball?

Here are some notes, updates and random thoughts for your fantasy football draft before we get into real football starting in exactly one week!

Draft Buddy Projections Update

This morning we updated the FF Today projections, rankings, ADP and depth charts in Draft Buddy. Here are the projection highlights:

  • Alshon Jeffery down
  • Dallas Goedert up
  • Sammy Watkins down
  • Chris Hogan up
  • Slight bumps for Bilal Powell, James White and Peyton Barber
  • Slight bump down for Carson Wentz

A tip I mentioned on Twitter… if you have keepers and/or draft pick trades in Draft Buddy, on the action tab change both reset options to “no” before hitting Update Projections.

Thanks for supporting Draft Buddy, and good luck to everyone still drafting!

Recent Draft Results

Scout Fantasy Online Champ. #2
Scout Fantasy Online Champ. #2 (12th pick)
Scout Fantasy Online Champ. #1
Scout Fantasy Online Champ. #1 (10th pick)
FFPC Best Ball
FFPC Best Ball (8th pick)
Dirty Dozen
Dirty Dozen (3-player keeper, 12th pick)
FanEx
FanEx (8th pick)
Scott Fish Bowl
Scott Fish Bowl (12th pick)

Here are rosters from six of my drafts (yes, there are more) to help me pick out some trends to hopefully provide some insight for your remaining drafts.

Apparently I have zero luck getting a Top 6 pick this year. The Dirty Dozen was set by prior year finish, but three times picking 12th, two 8th and one 10th. C’mon man.

Quarterback

While I went with a top QB a couple times, I definitely lean more to the wait. There is a big group of players with similar expectations. Jared Goff and Derek Carr represent a great combination of low cost and upside in my opinion.

I was not even dreaming of drafting Jameis Winston at the start of the preseason, but he’s looked great and Bucs offense has numerous weapons. I wouldn’t normally hold a third QB but between Winston, who could perform as a Top 6 QB upon his return, over throwing another dart at a bench RB or WR, it feels worth the wait for a draft cost of next to nothing.

Running Back

These drafts are in order from most recent to oldest, left to right first row then second row. Note the last four drafts I took Kenyan Drake. He is getting a little more expensive now as people are seeing the opportunity available to him.

Clearly I was searching for value at RB from the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts backfields throughout draft season. I still think Ty Montgomery will be passable fantasy contributor (all of these drafts are PPR) but I am pretty much fading the three Packers backs now.

On the Colts, I will still take a shot on Jordan Wilkins because there are Nyheim Hines believers out there, keeping Wilkins cost pretty low.

Wide Receiver

At WR, wish I had a little less Demaryius Thomas, as he is sliding in drafts now, and wish I had more Cooper Kupp. He will be a sweet security blanket for Goff, and is used in the red zone.

I tried to make a point of grabbing Marquise Goodwin before the market caught up with him, but then you can see with the two most recent drafts I switched gears to the now cheaper Pierre Garcon. At the end of the day, I want a piece of the San Francisco 49ers passing game, and preferably (as with all picks) at a reasonable cost.

Tight End

Top TE hasn’t worked out from a value standpoint the last couple drafts, and I’ve become more interested in Indianapolis Colts Jack Doyle. I have a little apprehension about the potential slice of receptions going to Eric Ebron over Doyle.

Ricky Seals-Jones has a nice opportunity for himself and is really cheap. I’m in, obviously, but realizing how unreliable he very well could be, I opted for Ben Watson in my last draft over Seals-Jones. I may take a third TE in that league (still drafting), RSJ or rookie Dallas Goedert, to see how each start the season under my team control rather than taking a chance leaving them on waivers.

Draft Peyton Barber

In the interest of time I’ll post my tweets about drafting Peyton Barber.

Looks like my window on Kenyan Drake closing with Adam Gase quote. Got him in both of my @ScoutFantasy Online Champ. drafts. Next up…

— DraftBuddy.com (@DraftBuddy) August 30, 2018

… Peyton Barber. Looks like he will be heavily involved in what should be a pretty darn good offense. @FFCalculator ADP is early-7th round, 33rd RB off the board. Better pick than 10 RB getting drafted ahead of him. pic.twitter.com/IMZKytTeIZ

— DraftBuddy.com (@DraftBuddy) August 30, 2018

Now I said 10. Could be tough. Barber > Coleman, Thompson, J. Williams, Carson, Kerryon, Hyde, Ingram… Ajayi, Henry, Burkhead

— DraftBuddy.com (@DraftBuddy) August 30, 2018

Yikes, that is a lot of RB to name below Barber when I was originally throwing out an estimate of 10. Will definitely need to revisit this one later.

Good Luck Champ!

Darren Summer

Two-time Fantasy Football World Champion and long-time Draft Buddy member, Darren Summer

Crazy I didn’t piece this together years go, but we have a pseudo-celebrity among our Draft Buddy members. Or maybe better to say A-level celebrity (in fantasy football circles). Darren Summer, who has used Draft Buddy for years and years, we’ve emailed back and forth pretty much every season, and I knew he played in the higher stakes leagues online and in Las Vegas.

Darren is the 2018 Scout Fantasy, Fantasy Football World Champion. And… he also won it in 2016! Two-time champ! Draft Buddy user. Awesome stuff Darren, and good luck again this year!

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

Preliminary 2016 Running Back Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 6, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Todd Gurley

Todd Gurley joins Le’Veon Bell at the top of our preliminary RB tiers before a drop-off into the second group of the best backs in fantasy football.

Following up our preliminary quarterback tiers, here are the preliminary running back redraft ranking tiers for the 2016 season.

Note the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other running backs in their own tier.

Expect detailed player projections and rankings, plus some fantasy football player commentary in the coming weeks. Comment below with your feedback.

Tier 1

Le’Veon Bell
Todd Gurley

Tier 2

Adrian Peterson
David Johnson
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte

Tier 3

Danny Woodhead
DeMarco Murray
Devonta Freeman
Jonathan Stewart
Lamar Miller

Tier 4

C.J. Anderson
Doug Martin
Eddie Lacy
Ezekiel Elliott ®
Jay Ajayi
LeSean McCoy

Tier 5

Ameer Abdullah
Carlos Hyde
Dion Lewis
Frank Gore
Mark Ingram
Melvin Gordon
T.J. Yeldon
Thomas Rawls

Tier 6

Chris Ivory
Duke Johnson
Giovani Bernard
Jeremy Hill
Jeremy Langford
Justin Forsett
Latavius Murray
Matt Jones
Ryan Mathews
Shaun Draughn

Tier 7

Bilal Powell
Charles Sims
Chris Johnson
Darren Sproles
DeAngelo Williams
Isaiah Crowell
Karlos Williams
LeGarrette Blount
Rashad Jennings
Shane Vereen
Spencer Ware

Tier 8

C.J. Spiller
Chris Thompson
Darren McFadden
Javorius Allen
Jerick McKinnon
Ronnie Hillman
Tevin Coleman
Theo Riddick

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

New York Jets Team Report

June 18, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

New offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has a history with veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, so the J-E-T-S again turn to Geno Smith as their starter, but for how long is the question.

New offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has a history with veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, so the J-E-T-S again turn to Geno Smith as their starter, but for how long is the question.

QB Geno Smith

A 2nd round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Smith has apparently been handed the Jets starting quarterback position once again in 2015. Let’s recap. As a rookie, Smith was handed the starting job when Mark Sanchez suffered a season-ending injury after the coaching staff played him with 3rd stringers in an exhibition game. Last season, management brought in Michael Vick to fill out the depth chart but ended up handing the starting job over to Smith sans competition. This season, Ryan Fitzpatrick was acquired to replace Vick but offensive coordinator Chan Gailey stated that Smith would open the season as the team’s starter only to have head coach Todd Bowles rebut him by making it clear there would be a quarterback competition. Here’s what you need to know. With 34 interceptions and seven lost fumbles in two seasons, Smith isn’t going to hold Fitzpatrick off for long. And even if he does, you have better options as a QB2 for your fantasy squad.

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Entering his 11th year in the league, Fitzpatrick is the quintessential journeyman. Good enough to stick around on some team’s roster. Never good enough to lead a winning team. In 2015, he figures to enter training camp behind Geno Smith on the Jets quarterback depth chart but an ascension to the starting position seems almost inevitable given Smith’s inability to avoid turning the ball over. However, since Fitzpatrick failed to rate as a solid fantasy quarterback when new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey was the Buffalo Bills head coach, we don’t see him suddenly becoming better now as a 32-year old veteran.

QB Bryce Petty

Geno Smith isn’t the answer and Ryan Fitzpatrick has never been the answer either. Petty likely redshirts as a rookie in 2015 with a chance to start next season but it won’t be a surprise if he starts a few games at the end of the season if the Jets are no longer in playoff contention.

RB Chris Ivory

Chris Ivory might just be his own worst enemy. After five years in the league, he has played in 16 games just once (ironically enough in 2014) as his physical rushing style leaves him susceptible to injuries. Splitting time with Chris Johnson last season, Ivory rushing for 820 yards with a career-high six touchdowns and had a career year as a receiver with 18 receptions for 123 yards and a score. And therein lies part of the issue with Ivory. He doesn’t see the field on passing downs and doesn’t get to play much when the Jets are behind. With Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy having joined the team in the offseason, Ivory’s production last season likely represents his upside in 2015. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he has a more marginal role with either Ridley or Stacy taking away some early down work. We rate Ivory as a mid to lower tier RB3 with little upside and one who carries some risk due to his increased competition and injury history.

RB Stevan Ridley

If he were fully healthy, Ridley would rate as the Jets most talented running back. However, he may not even make the team after signing a one-year make it contract after suffering a torn ACL during Week 6 of last season. In order to regain fantasy relevance, Ridley will need to earn a starting role ahead of incumbent starter Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell and former St. Louis Ram Zac Stacy. Ridley’s career year came in 2012 when he rushed for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns in a strong New England Patriots offense. In New York, touchdown opportunities don’t figure to be as plentiful and as a back who struggles as a receiver (just 23 career receptions in four years), Ridley’s upside is as a mid to lower tier RB3. Monitor Ridley’s progress (offseason reports had his availability for the opening of training camp in doubt) and draft accordingly.

RB Zac Stacy

In the deep flyer category, we present Zac Stacy. After his “Yikes” Twitter comment when the Rams select Todd Gurley in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft, Stacy was traded to the Jets for a 7th round pick where he will compete with Chris Ivory and Stevan Ridley for a starting role with Bilal Powell likely handling pass catching duties. After producing 973 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 250 carries in essentially 12 games as a rookie in 2013, Stacy tumbled down the depth chart last season. With the Jets coaching staff not enamored with Ivory’s skill set and Ridley coming off a torn ACL, Stacy could surprise in 2015.

RB Bilal Powell

While Powell has produced respectable numbers when called upon, the truth is that the Jets lack of backfield depth is the only reason he was re-signed to a one-year, $2-million contract in the offseason. After career highs in most offensive categories in 2013 when he accumulated 969 total yards, he was a non-factor last season playing behind Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. This season, he is expected to assume a pass catching role in the Jets backfield and we hold out almost no hope that he will emerge as a starter. Powell just doesn’t possess enough upside to warrant a spot on your fantasy roster.

WR Brandon Marshall

After topping 80 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards in seven consecutive seasons, Marshal suffered through a subpar campaign in 2014 as leg and rib injuries, as well as a punctured lung, caused him to miss three games. He finished the season with 61 receptions for 721 yards and eight touchdowns, his worst production since his rookie season in 2006, wearing out his welcome in Chicago along the way. The team’s new management felt it was addition by subtraction in deciding to move Marshall to the New York Jets for a 5th round pick. In Chicago, Marshall won’t have Jay Cutler force-feeding him the ball and it certainly won’t be a surprise if the Jets issues at quarterback lead to another season with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards. In just one season, Marshall moves from being a potential top 10 fantasy wide receiver to no better than a WR3 entering 2015.

WR Eric Decker

Last season, we gave you two predictions on Decker. The first was that he would be the only Jets wide receiver to have any meaningful fantasy value and the second was that his production during his first year in New York would take a deep nose dive compared to his final season in Denver. Two for two. By season’s end, Decker had accumulated respectable production, catching 74 passes for 962 yards and five touchdowns. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, he wasn’t of much use to them as he produced just 531 yards and four touchdowns during the first 13 weeks of the season (he missed one of those games with an injury). He was lights out to finish the season, catching 25 passes for 431 yards and a touchdown over his final four games. By then, his fantasy owners were looking forward to 2015 or leaving him on their benches. In 2015, Decker will once again suffer through quarterback issues with Geno Smith returning and Ryan Fitzpatrick in reserve. In addition, Brandon Marshall was acquired in a trade and he figures to assume the role of the team’s number one receiver. We like Decker as an upper tier fantasy reserve with some upside.

Jeremy Kerley

While it would be easy to jump to the conclusion that the Jets will curtail Kerley’s usage as a slot receiver in order to get rookie 2nd round pick Devin Smith on the field, we don’t follow that line of thinking. First off, Smith is better suited to line up outside in order to take advantage of his speed and, second, Kerley was signed to a four-year, $16-million contract extension last season that included $5.4-million in guarantees. While we don’t expect that he will ever match his production from the 2012 season when he caught 56 passes for 827 yards, he is a decent slow receiver who should approach 80-90 targets in Chan Gailey’s spread offense. With just seven touchdowns in four seasons and lacking big play ability, Kerley doesn’t hold much fantasy appeal particularly considering the Jets issues at quarterback.

WR Devin Smith

With a pair of big wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to go along with a decent option out of the slot in Jeremy Kerley, the Jets were missing a player to take the top off of a defense and provide some big plays. Hence, the selection of Ohio State product Devin Smith in the 2nd round of this year’s NFL Draft. Smith’s solid speed and big play ability fill an obvious need in the Jets offense but new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s affinity for short and intermediate throws don’t bode well for his target count as a rookie nor does the presence of Marshall and Decker. While we see Smith as a player with the potential to develop into a solid starting wide receiver, he will likely be relegated to a deep threat role as a rookie making him waiver wire material in redraft formats.

TE Jace Amaro

Taken in the 2nd round of last year’s draft, Amaro’s experience playing in a fast paced, quick strike offense at Texas Tech didn’t have him arrive ready to contribute in a meaningful way playing in Marty Mornhinweg’s offense. However, with Chan Gailey having replaced Mornhingweg as the Jets offensive coordinator, Amaro has the chance to improve on his modest rookie production of 38 receptions, 345 yards and a pair of touchdowns. For that to happen, he will need to relegate Jeff Cumberland to a pure backup role after splitting the pass receiving role last year (53 targets for Amaro to 47 for Cumberland). However, since Cumberland has proven to be a solid receiving option over the last three years (78 receptions for 1,004 yards and 10 touchdowns) coupled with the presence of a pair of large, red zone target eating wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, we aren’t predicting a breakout season for Amaro in 2015. He is an intriguing TE2 with upside and a decent dynasty prospect.

Also see: New York Jets IDP Team Report | Buffalo Bills

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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