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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Wednesday September 5

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Pittsburgh Pirates are facing a RHP at home (Homer Bailey CIN who has faced 473 batters). On FanDuel the Pirates are currently putting up 2.05 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Homer Bailey is currently allowing 134% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.74 (2.05 x 134%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Pirates RHP at home Homer Bailey CIN 473 2.05 x 134% 2.74 +0.69 1.57 x 133% 2.09 +0.52
Rockies LHP at home Andrew Suarez SFG 548 2.62 x 104% 2.71 +0.10 2.00 x 105% 2.10 +0.10
Angels RHP on road Bartolo Colon TEX 596 2.17 x 122% 2.66 +0.49 1.66 x 123% 2.04 +0.38
White Sox RHP at home Jordan Zimmermann DET 451 2.17 x 112% 2.44 +0.27 1.67 x 114% 1.89 +0.23
Mariners RHP at home Andrew Cashner BAL 643 2.01 x 116% 2.34 +0.32 1.56 x 115% 1.80 +0.24
Rangers RHP at home Jaime Barria LAA 441 2.38 x 94% 2.25 -0.13 1.78 x 96% 1.72 -0.07
Astros RHP at home Jake Odorizzi MIN 619 2.09 x 107% 2.22 +0.14 1.58 x 105% 1.66 +0.08
Rays RHP on road Aaron Sanchez TOR 404 2.00 x 109% 2.18 +0.19 1.54 x 107% 1.66 +0.11
Blue Jays RHP at home Tyler Glasnow TBR 358 2.29 x 95% 2.18 -0.11 1.74 x 93% 1.61 -0.13
Brewers LHP at home Jose Quintana CHC 602 2.07 x 103% 2.13 +0.06 1.57 x 102% 1.61 +0.04
Yankees RHP on road Mike Fiers OAK 609 2.18 x 96% 2.10 -0.08 1.64 x 99% 1.63 -0.02
Cardinals RHP on road Tanner Roark WSN 691 2.18 x 96% 2.10 -0.08 1.66 x 97% 1.61 -0.05
Orioles RHP on road Mike Leake SEA 692 1.91 x 105% 2.00 +0.10 1.47 x 107% 1.57 +0.10
Marlins RHP at home Nick Pivetta PHI 596 1.81 x 106% 1.92 +0.10 1.41 x 106% 1.49 +0.08
Cubs RHP on road Jhoulys Chacin MIL 685 2.16 x 89% 1.93 -0.23 1.66 x 89% 1.47 -0.18
Giants RHP on road Antonio Senzatela COL 273 1.79 x 106% 1.89 +0.10 1.40 x 105% 1.47 +0.07
Nationals RHP at home Miles Mikolas STL 677 2.27 x 81% 1.84 -0.43 1.72 x 84% 1.45 -0.27
Dodgers RHP at home Zack Wheeler NYM 662 2.25 x 82% 1.85 -0.40 1.70 x 83% 1.42 -0.28
Athletics RHP at home Luis Severino NYY 694 2.06 x 89% 1.83 -0.23 1.57 x 90% 1.42 -0.15
Reds RHP on road Jameson Taillon PIT 657 2.01 x 89% 1.80 -0.21 1.54 x 92% 1.41 -0.13
Phillies RHP on road Sandy Alcantara MIA 21 2.05 x 83% 1.69 -0.36 1.56 x 80% 1.24 -0.32
Mets LHP on road Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD 206 1.96 x 76% 1.49 -0.47 1.50 x 78% 1.17 -0.33
Tigers RHP on road Michael Kopech CHW 48 1.77 x 51% 0.90 -0.87 1.38 x 58% 0.80 -0.58
Twins LHP on road Framber Valdez HOU 58 1.81 x 48% 0.87 -0.94 1.38 x 47% 0.65 -0.73

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Indians RHP at home Brad Keller KCR 468 2.48 x 85% 2.10 -0.38 1.86 x 87% 1.61 -0.25
Braves RHP at home Hector Velazquez BOS 317 2.15 x 93% 2.00 -0.15 1.63 x 96% 1.57 -0.06
Red Sox RHP on road Mike Foltynewicz ATL 623 2.36 x 84% 1.98 -0.39 1.78 x 84% 1.50 -0.29
Royals RHP on road Corey Kluber CLE 723 1.99 x 82% 1.63 -0.35 1.53 x 84% 1.29 -0.24

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Monday August 13

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Cleveland Indians are facing a RHP on road (Homer Bailey CIN who has faced 367 batters). On FanDuel the Indians are currently putting up 2.12 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and Homer Bailey is currently allowing 128% more PPA than the MLB average (2.116 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.71 (2.12 x 128%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.116 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.614
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Indians RHP on road Homer Bailey CIN 367 2.12 x 128% 2.71 +0.59 1.61 x 127% 2.06 +0.44
Braves RHP at home Merandy Gonzalez MIA (Gm2) 82 2.16 x 120% 2.60 +0.44 1.64 x 122% 1.99 +0.35
Diamondbacks RHP on road Bartolo Colon TEX 550 2.08 x 119% 2.47 +0.39 1.57 x 120% 1.89 +0.31
White Sox RHP on road Artie Lewicki DET 148 2.01 x 116% 2.33 +0.32 1.54 x 117% 1.80 +0.26
Cardinals LHP at home Tommy Milone WSN 74 1.94 x 118% 2.29 +0.35 1.49 x 120% 1.78 +0.29
Braves RHP at home Pablo Lopez MIA (Gm1) 168 2.16 x 103% 2.22 +0.06 1.64 x 103% 1.68 +0.04
Padres LHP at home Andrew Heaney LAA 528 2.21 x 99% 2.19 -0.02 1.67 x 99% 1.65 -0.02
Angels LHP on road Clayton Richard SDP 609 1.97 x 109% 2.15 +0.18 1.51 x 108% 1.63 +0.12
Tigers RHP at home Reynaldo Lopez CHW 585 1.99 x 105% 2.10 +0.11 1.53 x 104% 1.60 +0.06
Rangers RHP at home Zack Greinke ARI 598 2.31 x 84% 1.94 -0.37 1.74 x 86% 1.50 -0.24
Marlins RHP on road Touki Toussaint ATL (Gm1) – 1.91 x 100% 1.91 +0.00 1.48 x 100% 1.48 +0.00
Mariners LHP on road Sean Manaea OAK 585 2.13 x 88% 1.88 -0.25 1.65 x 89% 1.47 -0.18
Mets RHP on road Luis Severino NYY 604 2.23 x 85% 1.89 -0.34 1.68 x 87% 1.46 -0.22
Reds RHP at home Mike Clevinger CLE 597 2.11 x 89% 1.88 -0.22 1.60 x 91% 1.45 -0.15
Athletics LHP at home Marco Gonzales SEA 563 1.94 x 95% 1.85 -0.09 1.47 x 98% 1.44 -0.03
Blue Jays RHP on road Brad Keller KCR 371 2.14 x 86% 1.84 -0.30 1.63 x 87% 1.42 -0.21
Royals RHP at home Sean Reid-Foley TOR – 1.83 x 100% 1.83 +0.00 1.42 x 100% 1.42 +0.00
Dodgers LHP at home Madison Bumgarner SFG 312 2.04 x 83% 1.70 -0.34 1.55 x 85% 1.31 -0.24
Yankees RHP at home Jacob deGrom NYM 596 2.56 x 65% 1.67 -0.89 1.92 x 68% 1.31 -0.61
Marlins RHP on road Mike Foltynewicz ATL (Gm2) 518 1.91 x 87% 1.67 -0.24 1.48 x 88% 1.30 -0.18
Nationals RHP on road Miles Mikolas STL 579 2.04 x 76% 1.55 -0.50 1.56 x 79% 1.23 -0.33
Giants LHP on road Clayton Kershaw LAD 409 1.84 x 80% 1.48 -0.36 1.42 x 83% 1.18 -0.24

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups Analysis for Thursday July 26

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Oakland Athletics are facing a RHP on road (Bartolo Colon TEX who has faced 466 batters). On FanDuel the Athletics are currently putting up 2.48 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and Bartolo Colon is currently allowing 115% more PPA than the MLB average (2.110 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.85 (2.48 x 115%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.110 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.609
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Athletics RHP on road Bartolo Colon TEX 466 2.48 x 115% 2.85 +0.36 1.88 x 116% 2.17 +0.30
Yankees RHP at home Jakob Junis KCR 458 2.53 x 113% 2.85 +0.32 1.89 x 113% 2.13 +0.24
Rays RHP on road Alex Cobb BAL 442 1.95 x 132% 2.57 +0.62 1.51 x 131% 1.97 +0.47
Braves LHP at home Rich Hill LAD 268 2.27 x 105% 2.38 +0.11 1.72 x 105% 1.81 +0.09
Red Sox RHP at home Kyle Gibson MIN 505 2.59 x 91% 2.35 -0.24 1.96 x 91% 1.78 -0.18
Mets RHP on road Nick Kingham PIT 238 2.26 x 103% 2.34 +0.07 1.71 x 102% 1.75 +0.04
Phillies RHP on road Tyler Mahle CIN 467 2.04 x 110% 2.25 +0.21 1.55 x 110% 1.71 +0.16
Reds LHP at home Ranger Suarez PHI – 2.23 x 100% 2.23 +0.00 1.67 x 100% 1.67 +0.00
Royals RHP on road Sonny Gray NYY 430 1.89 x 110% 2.08 +0.19 1.47 x 109% 1.59 +0.13
Nationals RHP on road Dan Straily MIA 334 2.05 x 102% 2.09 +0.04 1.57 x 101% 1.58 +0.01
Dodgers RHP on road Anibal Sanchez ATL 289 2.37 x 85% 2.01 -0.36 1.79 x 86% 1.53 -0.26
Pirates LHP at home Steven Matz NYM 432 1.97 x 101% 1.99 +0.02 1.52 x 101% 1.53 +0.01
Twins LHP on road Brian Johnson BOS 236 1.94 x 97% 1.89 -0.05 1.47 x 100% 1.47 +0.00
Rangers RHP at home Trevor Cahill OAK 226 2.21 x 83% 1.83 -0.38 1.66 x 83% 1.38 -0.28
Brewers RHP on road Dereck Rodriguez SFG 222 2.04 x 85% 1.73 -0.31 1.57 x 87% 1.36 -0.21
Orioles TBD at home TBD/Bullpen TBR – 1.63 x 100% 1.63 +0.00 1.29 x 100% 1.29 +0.00
Marlins LHP at home Tommy Milone WSN – 1.56 x 100% 1.56 +0.00 1.22 x 100% 1.22 +0.00
Giants LHP at home Wade Miley MIL 75 2.09 x 66% 1.38 -0.71 1.61 x 66% 1.07 -0.54