Speculative Plays

Jake Westbrook, RHP, STL (4.22 ERA, 4.24 FIP, -0.02 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
The funny thing about Westbrook is that he was already a groundball-dominant pitcher before he came under the tutelage of Dave Duncan, so it’s not like Duncan had to work much of his magic on the guy. Bid on more of the same from Westbrook.

Kyle McClellan, RHP, STL (2.27 ERA, 4.07 FIP, -1.80 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Gandhi, Jesus, and Mohammad all walked into Dave Duncan’s office one day to talk to him about religion. They walked out as 5.5 K/9 pitchers with team-friendly ERA’s and groundball rates in the 2.00’s. We can probably expect Duncan to work the same magic on McClellan as well.

Johan Santana, LHP, NYM (2.98 ERA, 3.58 FIP, -0.60 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Once he comes back from his injury, Santana will still be able to live on as a very useful fantasy pitcher well beyond his prime as long as he calls Citi Field home. And that’s a good thing, because Santana is definitely beyond his prime. Still, he’s a very good pitcher, and he’s worth a shot late in mixed leagues.

Doug Fister, RHP, SEA (4.11 ERA, 3.69 FIP, +0.42 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Safeco plays better for southpaws than righties, so Fister doesn’t get quite as much of a boost as the likes of Vargas and the rest of the Mariner lefties. Still, he’s a control pitcher with a very good defense behind him. He’s obviously not going to help in K’s, but there’s a good shot at Fister providing a low 4’s ERA with a WHIP in the high 1.20’s. He’s probably a somewhat useful pitcher in AL leagues.

Barry Zito, LHP, SF (4.15 ERA, 4.22 FIP, -0.07 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He’s dependable in his mediocrity. San Francisco isn’t the most ideal park for him as it plays a bit bigger for right-handed pitchers, but it’s still a pitcher’s park. And Zito has a very good defense behind him. In other words, there’s some slight upside to his ERA and WHIP if some defensive luck bounces his way, and he offers little in the way of injury downside. He’s not a bad guy to have at the back end of a deeper league staff.

Jason Hammel, RHP, COL (4.81 ERA, 3.76 FIP, +1.05 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He’s in a horrible park with what is now a bad defense. Despite the fact that I like his abilities, Hammel is a guy who will almost always underperform his FIP as long as those negative factors are in play. A perfect world projection (well, as perfect as Hammel could hope being in Coors) could see him with a 4.25 ERA, a WHIP in the low 1.30’s, and 150 K. But I’d bet on the under and hope for him to have some luck for a change.

Justin Masterson, RHP, CLE (4.70 ERA, 3.94 FIP, +0.76 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
There’s a lot to like in his peripheral stats, and there’s certainly some room for growth after a superficially horrible season. But the Indians’ defense is so bad that I have a hard time taking him too seriously. I’d look for a 4.25+ ERA with a WHIP in the high 1.30’s or low 1.40’s. He does have the potential for 150+ strikeouts, so he’s not without his usefulness. You’re going to have to deploy him with a WHIP anchor, though.

Julio Teheran, RHP, ATL (Rookie)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
He’s a dynamite prospect for keeper leagues. I hope he gets a shot at a rotation spot later in the year, but at worst, he’ll be a great bullpen arm for the Braves to utilize down the stretch. Longterm, he’s the best pitching prospects in baseball (I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know).

Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU (Rookie)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
With Minute Maid Park playing kind to pitchers these days, and with the Astros so pitching starved (and talent starved in general), Lyles has a good shot at being a starter for them by June at the latest (and I’m guessing sooner if everything goes right). My opinion is that he still needs a bit of seasoning, but I’m a buyer down the line as I think he’ll make for a nice mid-rotation fantasy starter with plenty of WHIP and ERA upside with some K’s tossed in as well.

J.A. Happ, LHP, HOU (3.40 ERA, 4.32 FIP, -0.92 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor:
I’m cautiously optimistic. Happ found a successful slider last year, and if he can combine that with his useful change-up from 2009, he could cobble himself into being a pretty decent fantasy pitcher. Of course, the probability of all of that happening isn’t exactly huge. So there’s room for success here, but don’t bid too aggressively. If you can pay for a 4.20 ERA and a 1.35ish WHIP, there’s a lot of room for profit.

Jason Vargas, LHP, SEA (3.78 ERA, 3.98 FIP, -0.20 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Vargas is pretty boring, but he has a few factors going in his favor that allow me to recommend him in deeper leagues. First, he’s a southpaw in Safeco Field, which is a lot like putting a pitcher in Petco as Safeco crushes the right-handed hitters while the LHP’s natural split factor against left-handed hitters does the rest. Secondly, Seattle projects to have another good to great defense. Combine those with solid control and a good change-up, and you’ve got a guy who projects to have a low 4.00’s ERA (with a high 3.00’s ERA not totally out of the question) and a WHIP in the high 1.20 to low 1.30 range. He won’t get you strikeouts for the most part, but he’s a useful pitcher to be had on the cheap. In other words, last year wasn’t a total fluke for this guy.

Jeff Francis, LHP, KC (5.00 ERA, 3.87 FIP, +1.13 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Francis finally gets out of Coors which means he can finally become a somewhat productive fantasy pitcher. His repertoire doesn’t lend itself to Coors much at all (soft-tossing lefty who throws the ball over the plate with great frequency), but he’s just the type of quiet investment that could lead to a tidy profit on draft day if you get him for cheap. Injury risks exist, but I’m actually looking at him to toss 150+ innings.

Dallas Braden, LHP, OAK (3.50 ERA, 3.88 FIP, -0.38 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He’s actually much better against righties than he is lefties as his change-up is a fine pitch. Add that in with good (and possibly very good) control along with the Oakland park which plays bigger for southpaws, and I’d invest in him with some confidence. A high 3’s ERA with a WHIP in the mid-to-high 1.20’s is very do-able. He won’t really help in K’s, but he could see more Wins this year as the A’s have a better overall team.

Chris Narveson, LHP, MIL (4.99 ERA, 4.24 FIP, +0.75 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
There’s some strikeout and WHIP upside here from his 2010 performance, but the problem is that he plays for a crappy defense and he’s got homerun problems that are unlikely to go away. If you can get him for cheap and handle the mid-4’s (or worse) ERA, there’s a little value to be found here.

Jeremy Guthrie, RHP, BAL (3.83 ERA, 4.50 FIP, -0.67 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Guthrie almost always out-produces his FIP. And while it’s always tough to predict that type of thing given that it’s most often an outlier in the projection system, Guthrie deserves the benefit of the doubt at this point. PECOTA has its Ichiro. Pitching prognosticators have their Matt Cain‘s and Jeremy Guthrie’s.

John Ely, RHP, LAD (5.49 ERA, 4.40 FIP, +1.09 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Hand-cuffing the likes of Ely with Vicente Padilla seems like it could make for a profitable Frankensteinian pitcher by year’s end in daily transaction leagues. Ely’s the worse of the two, but he’s got a bit of strikeout and ERA potential. Don’t sleep on him in deep leagues if he comes uber-cheap.

Kris Medlen, RHP, ATL (3.68 ERA, 3.82 FIP, -0.14 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Medlen looked good in his limited time as a starter last season for the Braves. I’d hold onto him in keeper leagues as I have high expectations for him when he returns in 2012.

Nate Robertson, LHP, SEA (5.95 ERA, 4.84 FIP, +1.11 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Robertson actually offers a small (very small, mind you) opportunity for profit in deep AL leagues with both Safeco and a great defensive unit behind him. As Safeco helps left-handed pitchers keep the ball in the park (Robertson’s biggest weakness over the years) as much as any stadium in the game, Robertson would be an interesting pitcher to deploy at home in deep leagues. He’s easy to make fun of, but when you’re in the reserve rounds of your AL league, there are worse names you could be considering (I’m looking at you, Mitch Talbot!)

R.A. Dickey, RHP, NYM (2.84 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -0.83 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Knuckleballs! He may give similar numbers to Mike Pelfrey, but at least he’s not boring about it.

Manny Banuelos, LHP, NYY (Rookie)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Being a southpaw, Banuelos naturally improves his chances against the short porch in right in Yankee Stadium. He’s really young (19) and he’s likely to start the season in Double-A, but Banuelos is someone to be very aware of as he seems to have very good stuff and the Yankees look to have plenty of rotation needs, too. It’s also nice to hear pretty much everyone who has met him love his approach and character. The lack of warning signs is always a positive.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WAS (2.98 ERA, 2.01 FIP, +0.97 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Stephen Strasburg is so amazing, he once broke FIP. I don’t care if he only pitches one week this season, you want this man on your team. Buy buy buy!

Michael Kirkman, LHP, TEX (1.65 ERA, 2.96 FIP, -1.31 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Kirkman has good stuff, but he lacks the control necessary to really strive in MLB yet. He could use another half season in Triple-A to hone his control as well as refining his change-up. Long-term, he’s someone I’m interested in. Southpaws with good fastballs, sliders, and stamina don’t grow on trees, so follow him throughout the minor league season to keep abreast of how he’s doing.

Vance Worley, RHP, PHI (1.38 ERA, 3.16 FIP, -1.78 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
In any other organization, this guy could be a boon to deep league owners as he’s got big league control and should probably be an asset in WHIP almost immediately. In fact, I think there’s a chance he’s already a better pitcher than Joe Blanton (although Blanton would probably eat me for saying that). But with the Phillies, Worley has to wait his turn. He’s behind Blanton and Kendrick and probably only sees 80-100 innings (as the team’s seventh starter) unless the organization has some serious injuries in their rotation early and often. He’s certainly a guy I’d take a reserve round flyer on in deep NL leagues, though.

Vicente Padilla, RHP, LAD (4.07 ERA, 4.20 FIP, -0.13 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor:
Useful. That’s what this guy is. He’s just useful. You can sneak a pitcher like Padilla past most owners in your leagues as they look for the next big thing. Meanwhile, Padilla is steady and helps you out, especially in the NL where his stuff plays up his strikeouts a lot more. Yeah, he’s out right now, and the news is that he’ll likely miss all of April. And sure, he’s only a sixth starter when he comes back. But injuries can and will happen to the rest of the Dodgers’ staff, so I expect him to see at least 15 starts and possibly more. He should be a bargain on draft day or in the few weeks just beyond. So shop smart – shop Veteran Pitcher Mart.

David Pauley, RHP, SEA (4.07 ERA, 4.94 FIP, -0.87 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor (RHP):
Pauley is a classic Safeco Field benefactor, except that he’s not a left-handed pitcher, so he won’t get the park’s full benefits. He does well against left-handed hitters due to his solid change-up, so he probably won’t blow up your ERA, and he’s got above average control to help keep the WHIP down. He’s not really a pitcher you want to pay anything for, but as a reserve in a deep AL league, he could serve you well. Of course, this could be said of any lefty Mariners pitcher or right-hander with a good change-up. Just be aware of that fact over the names of the pitchers.

Luke French, LHP, SEA (4.83 ERA, 5.29 FIP, -0.46 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor (LHP):
Due to defense and park factor being so much in his favor, it’s easy to be very slightly optimistic about French’s potential at the back-end of Seattle’s rotation. In a perfect world, he could find success as a Jarrod Washburn wannabe. But the world is rarely perfect, so bid according to whatever shade glasses you’re wearing this year.

Kenshin Kawakami, RHP, ATL (5.15 ERA, 4.35 FIP, +0.80 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
He’s an asset as a starter, and if another team would take a chance on him, he’d probably serve them well. The Braves’ rotation doesn’t have room for him, though, and with all the stud starting prospects, he’s unlikely to get much of a chance in Atlanta in 2011. If he’s traded, make a move for him. But as it stands, he’s not much use to anyone.

David Hernandez, RHP, ARI
Defense:
Park Factor:
Hernandez is a big sleeper this year, but not as a starter. I think he could have a legitimate shot at being a good closer at some point. If Putz gets hurt, Hernandez may surprise a bunch of people and take over the gig.

Josh Tomlin, RHP, CLE (4.56 ERA, 4.59 FIP, -0.03 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Tomlin has very good control which somewhat mitigates his overall lack of stuff. He could be a bit of aid in WHIP in AL leagues. He’s not too bad in strikeouts either. In other words, he’s not overly exciting, but Tomlin is probably going to be useful in deep leagues.

Chris Resop, RHP, PIT (3.86 ERA, 3.08 FIP, +0.78 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Forgive me for falling for his elite minor league strikeout rates. I think Pittsburgh could do worse than to give him a rotation spot for a year and see what he’s capable of full-time. Maybe he ends up as nothing more than a reliever, but it’s worth a shot, especially given just how awful Pittsburgh is overall and how much ground they need to gain to ever become a contender again. Keeping a potentially good starter as a mop-up reliever seems like an awful waste of time.

Andrew Oliver, LHP, DET (4.56 ERA, 4.28 FIP, +0.28 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Color me intrigued. While a guy like Porcello has gotten all the press in Tigertown, Oliver has the potential to be the much more interesting fantasy pitcher. He’s got good strikeout stuff, brandishes an excellent fastball, and has the makings of a good change-up to combat righties, too. He’s still probably a year away from real fantasy relevance, but his stuff and potential make him worth monitoring in the meantime.

Justin Duchscherer, RHP, BAL (3.59 ERA, 4.04 FIP, -0.45 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor:
He’s a good pitcher when healthy, but I’d trust Betty White to make it through this year with fewer health issues than The Duck. (Duke? No, Duck I say.) However, if your roster can incur the risk, he may be worth a flier.

Ross Detwiler, LHP, WAS (4.25 ERA, 4.65 FIP, -0.40 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
It all boils down to velocity for me with Detwiler. If he can find his old velo, he’s still got a chance at being a mid-rotation starter. If that velocity never comes back, he’s end of the rotation fodder and a fantasy crapfest. Watch the radar guns early and often to make sure you don’t walk into a clogged bathroom stall.

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, CLE (3.83 ERA, 4.13 FIP, -0.30 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Carrasco has good control, pretty good fastball velocity with good movement, very solid secondary offerings, and he’s above average in striking out hitters, too (the fascist). And while last year was probably the peak of what we can expect from his Groundball-to-Flyball ratio, he’s still what I would consider a groundball-heavy pitcher. The two main issues – and unfortunately for him, they’re big ones – are that he has a pretty atrocious defense behind him, and he also has some moderate issues with homeruns allowed. The poor defense is going to drive his BABIP (and thus his WHIP) up, and the homerun problem will inflate his ERA. I like his stuff a lot, but I have trouble projecting him to have a good 2011. Carrasco would be an interesting play in keeper leagues as I feel like he’s going to be a good fantasy pitcher in the future – just not this year.

Marc Rzepczynski, LHP, TOR (4.95 ERA, 4.57 FIP, +0.38 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
“The Alphabet”, as I like to call him, is a bit of a mystery. He doesn’t have outstanding stuff, but he produces pretty good underlying statistics. In some ways, he reminds me of a young Ted Lilly. It should be noted that it took Lilly until he wasn’t so young anymore (age 31) before he finally figured things out and harnessed his control. There’s upside here, but The Alphabet probably needs at least another year of working on his control plus refining his change-up to at least be average before he’s likely to make much fantasy noise. Let’s just hope that it doesn’t take him quite as long as it did Lilly. Let’s also hope that attrition is kind to him. Buy him for the strikeouts, and consider anything else somewhat serendipitous.

Zach Britton, LHP, BAL (Rookie)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
A lot of people have labeled him as a left-handed Brandon Webb. I haven’t seen him pitch yet, but anyone drawing those type of comparisons by scouts piques my interest. His groundball tendencies will serve him well in Camden Yards, too, although sinkerball pitchers generally have higher WHIP’s because of all the groundballs sliding through for singles. I’d be wary of expecting much more than smallish ERA help and slightly above average K’s when he first comes up. His WHIP is likely to suffer.

Casey Kelly, RHP, SD (Rookie)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I don’t care now whether he profiles to be a #2 or #3 starter – I want him on my team regardless. Petco is such a beautiful park, don’t you think?

Mike Montgomery / John Lamb, LHP, KC (Rookies)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
I like them both for different reasons (Montgomery’s more high risk/high reward; Lamb is more likely to be ready sooner). My issue is that Kansas City seems unlikely to call these guys up until as late as possible. My guess is that they’ll see their first big league time in 2012 instead of this year.

Jacob Turner, RHP, DET (Rookie)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
The Tigers have never really shied away from calling up their dynamo pitching prospects as soon as possible, and I’m not sure they’ll wait that long to give Turner a shot either. I think there’s a good chance he’ll be up by mid-season for a cup of coffee, and if he does well, he could stick longer. Keep an eye on him in his first couple of months in the minors, because you may need to bid on him sooner than later.

Jarrod Parker, RHP, ARI (Rookie)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I can’t imagine Arizona will keep him down much past the Super Two deadline if he looks like he’s fully recovered and ready. If he is ready, he’ll be an instant strikeout source with plenty of longterm upside. If he isn’t quite up to speed, don’t forget about him because you may find him useful with a late-season call-up. I like his strikeout potential quite a bit, so I can’t wait till he’s called up and we can get a look at him.

Dillon Gee, RHP, NYM (2.18 ERA, 4.20 FIP, -2.02 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Gee is a perfect fit for NL leagues looking for underrated but probable positive value. He’s a control artist who may give up too many homeruns to be too strong of an asset in ERA, but a 4.00 ERA with a WHIP in the 1.20’s is possible for Gee, especially given the park and the solid defense behind him. Don’t expect strikeouts, though.

Charlie Morton, RHP, PIT (7.59 ERA, 5.29 FIP, +2.30 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Morton has pretty good stuff, induces plenty of groundballs, and has been really ridiculously unlucky in terms of homeruns given up and BABIP. If that’s not a posterboy for a sleeper, I don’t know what is. Yes, the Pirates’ defense is abysmal. Yes, that will hurt Morton’s actual ERA in its translation from his FIP. Still, there’s enough in the peripheral stats (good K/9 nearing 7, improving BB/9 under 3) and his stuff (which isn’t overwhelming but should be good enough to improve his counting stat line significantly) to suggest he could post an ERA in the high 3’s to low 4’s. His WHIP will suffer due to the defense, though, so don’t expect a miracle worker here. He’d be much more interesting with either a better defense or a better change-up. Here’s hoping he’s been working on his change over the off-season.

Felix Doubront, LHP, BOS (4.32 ERA, 4.12 FIP, +0.20 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Doubront needs more time in the minors to work on his secondary offerings as well as his control, but it’s not hard to envision him as a 3rd/4th starter for the Red Sox down the road. In the meantime, his profile suggests that he shouldn’t be counted on in any fantasy leagues. He’s merely a hopeful arm with a bit of promise for the future.

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