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FanEx FAD Experts League Fantasy Football Draft Recap Continued

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QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF

The face of the San Francisco 49ers, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, doesn’t have much in the way of playing experience entering his 5th NFL season, but he is my QB1 in the FanEx FAD fantasy football draft.

The FanEx Fantasy Analysis Draft (FAD) is a 12-team, 20-round draftmasters (best ball) PPR scoring fantasy football draft that requires each participant to write analysis for their picks. I drew the sixth overall pick, and described the league and comments for Rounds 1 to 5 last week.

Draft Buddy MFL Integration

Before we dive into my next picks, here is a new video for Draft Buddy I created from this draft that shows how the integration with MyFantasyLeague.com works to pull in franchise names and, even better, draft results. It makes it so much faster to update Draft Buddy at the press of a button.

Here is part two, my picks and commentary for Rounds 6 through 12.

Rounds 6 to 12 (June 18-23)

WR Michael Crabtree, BAL

Michael Crabtree was not really on my radar very much, even though I was leaning WR with this pick – too early for a QB, no top TE remaining, RB none too exciting at this point. Looking at players such as Pierre Garcon as the main target on the 49ers, or Devante Parker as a potential breakout candidate (yet again), a review of current ADP indicated I could wait on either of those guys. Which brought me to Crabtree. Veteran savvy WR joins veteran QB in a not very talented receiving group. Joe Flacco may be a fantasy pariah, but he isn’t stupid, already stating out of OTAs, “(Crabtree’s) the guy.” Crabtree should have numerous 10+ target games, making him a quality WR3.

RB Marlon Mack, IND

Seven rounds, starter spots filled at RB, WR and TE, but not QB or the flex spot. With 8 non-QB starters, unless a top QB comes at really good value, I am happy to wait longer. In all likelihood, my flex starter will be a WR most of the time. However, a review of available players, running backs with projected decent touches are getting thinner than wide receivers with projected decent targets. Marlon Mack, come on down!

Mack is coming off a so-so rookie season and offseason shoulder surgery, but has a good opportunity with the departure of Frank Gore. He had positive runs and miserable negative yardage plays. Here is to his first year experience, and new HC Frank Reich, helping make Mack a more effective runner. Not counting on it at this point but the return of Andrew Luck (early reports are good) would be a huge boost for the whole offense.

WR Pierre Garcon, SF

Now I get my WR target I was keen for two rounds ago. I was slightly shocked to see 49ers Marquise Goodwin get drafted back in the early 7th round, and realize I might be somewhat lonely supporting the Haitian as I did this time a year ago. What it ultimately means is, he is going to be on a lot of my fantasy teams this year. Last year he got injured, but he returned good PPR value for his low draft cost – 40 catches for 500 yards in 8 games without Jimmy Garoppolo (or a team win for that matter). Kyle Shanahan is a positive influence for his WR1. Better QB. Returning from neck injury which is scary but all signs are good, and Garcon hadn’t missed a game prior to last season since 2012. As the 40th WR off the board (Goodwin was 32nd), we shall see who becomes the more consistent contributor. I like my chances with the taller, bigger, more experienced guy.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF

At this point I would love to wait longer for my first QB. Note I said, “first”, not, “starter”. We are looking at a committee approach to QB for my team at this point which is ideal for a best ball league. Whomever fills the first and second QB spots we hope provide the right amount of volatility week-to-week to score one of the top collective starters at the position. Mine is the 10th different team to draft a QB and Garoppolo represents QB12 off the board (Dolfi/Walls already paired Drew Brees and Jared Goff). If I did wait longer, then I am risking not having much choice in who I select, since teams are grabbing their second. So, Jimmy G. …

Even though there are options available considered more likely to finish in the top 10-12 in season scoring (because they’ve done it before), like Philip Rivers, Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, drafting for top 12 is a zero-sum gain at this point. Why not draft a guy with upside who could surprise with a top 6 finish? All of his main skill players are already drafted so clearly fantasy players are high on the 49ers offense. We caught a glimpse what Garoppolo is capable of late last season. The prior four QB don’t excite me. This pick does.

QB Patrick Mahomes, KC

The writeup for this pick shouldn’t be vastly different from my prior pick, except Patrick Mahomes is clearly more risky, having made one career NFL start in a meaningless Week 17 game last season. Love the weapons on the Kansas City Chiefs. Would Andy Reid really be so careless as to hand the reigns of a competitive team over to someone with such little experience? I don’t think so. Mahomes is actually projected QB12 in this scoring by FF Today’s Mike Krueger. MK is from Kansas City and usually has a good read on the Chiefs. He clearly likes the upside of Mahomes and I do too. Happy to take the risk here over the group of QB still available – Blake Bortles, Dak Prescott, Marcus Mariota – who don’t have nearly the dynamic skill players that Mahomes does.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET

Clearly third in the pecking order on the Detroit Lions, Golladay isn’t exactly your ideal high projected target-reception guy to expect any degree of consistency from. However when veteran teammates say glowing things about a young player who flashed as a rookie last season, I take notice. From Golden Tate, “this guy can be dominant. He’s a WR1 kind of guy.” Plus, Eric Ebron is gone and there isn’t much receiving talent at TE.

RB James White, NE

“Mr. Playoffs” is still around in a very crowded backfield in New England. Dion Lewis is gone but rookie Sony Michel is aboard plus Jeremy Hill joining holdovers Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee. Michel should be involved – perhaps heavily – but I am okay betting against that given the rookie + Pats learning curve he has to overcome. Hill and Gillislee won’t both make the final roster, perhaps neither. White is a very good pass catcher and has the trust of the coaching staff and Tom Brady.

Final Rounds

The draft is 20 rounds but with the remaining used for kickers, defenses and depth, we will close here, but I will post my copy of Draft Buddy to the member download page so you can review all of the rosters, draft report and more. I find the positions tab particularly useful post-draft to review the rank each player was drafted at their position. For example, Jimmy Garoppolo was the 12th QB drafted in this draft, and Patrick Mahomes, QB17.

Baltimore Ravens Team Report

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Baltimore Ravens RB Justin Forsett was a huge surprise for fantasy players last season. New OC Marc Trestman will help him try to repeat or better his numbers this year.

Baltimore Ravens RB Justin Forsett was a huge surprise for fantasy players last season. New OC Marc Trestman will help him try to repeat or better his numbers this year.

QB Joe Flacco

Seven years into his career, it is apparent that Joe Flacco is a far better actual NFL quarterback than he is a fantasy quarterback. In fact, he has only finished one season as a QB1, finishing as the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback back in 2010. Last season, his PPG average of 20.4 marked the high point of his career as he finished the season as the 14th ranked quarterback with career highs in yards with 3,986 and touchdowns with 27. Heading into 2015, there is no evidence that he will emerge as anything more than a mid-tier QB2. At 36, Steve Smith is a year older and he faded badly over the second half of last season. Speedster Torrey Smith has been replaced by rookie 1st round pick Breshad Perriman. Tight end Dennis Pitta may never play again and Owen Daniels, who played well as his replacement, left via free agency and was replaced by rookie 2nd round pick Maxx Williams. While we view the addition of Marc Trestman as offensive coordinator a plus, we’re not buying the notion that Flacco will emerge as a solid QB1 in 2015.

RB Justin Forsett

Every year there is a player that surprises with an outstanding season and propels his fantasy owners deep into their league’s playoffs. Acquired either as a late round flyer or an early season waiver wire pickup, Forsett was that player in 2014, finishing the season with 1,263 rushing yards, 263 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, finishing as the 8th ranked fantasy running back. That marked a career year for Forsett, who struggled for most of his first six years in the league while playing for four different teams. With Marc Trestman having taken over as the Ravens offensive coordinator, Forsett should be in line for another solid season in 2015. He appears to be an ideal fit in Trestman’s offense which funnels plenty of passes to the running back position. In addition, Forsett faces little competition for touches from a pair of largely unproven players in Lorenzo Taliaferro and rookie Javorius Allen. Due to his diminutive size, Forsett isn’t in line for short yardage work so a huge touchdown count shouldn’t be expected. However, we expect him to approach 1,300 yards with another 8-10 touchdowns, production that is in line with a low end RB1 or high end RB2.

RB Javorius Allen

With little proven talent behind starter Justin Forsett, the Ravens used a 4th round pick for the second year in a row to help address the running back position. After drafting Lorenzo Taliaferro last season, this season they acquired Southern California product Javorius Allen. With Forsett having done little during his first six years in the league before enjoying a breakout season in 2014 at age 29, this is a handcuff situation that bears watching. While Taliaferro is a physical runner with marginal pass receiving ability, Allen possesses good size and is superior in the passing game.

RB Lorenzo Taliaferro

Taken in the 4th round of last year’s NFL Draft, Taliaferro was expected to spend the season buried on the Ravens depth chart. However, Ray Rice’s suspension and subsequent release and Bernard Pierce’s struggles resulted in Taliaferro essentially splitting the backup role behind Justin Forsett with Pierce. In limited playing time, the 6’0”, 229 pound Coastal Carolina product amassed 292 yards on 68 carries while adding eight receptions for 114 yards and scoring four touchdowns. Heading into this season, Taliaferro is expected to compete with rookie 4th round pick Javorius Allen for playing time behind Forsett. Of the two, Taliaferro is more of a between the tackles runner who could earn touches in short yardage situations while Allen is a superior pass receiving threat out of the backfield. With Forsett having topped 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his seven year career last season, his owners should monitor this battle in the preseason.

WR Breshad Perriman

Having watched Torrey Smith leave via free agency, the Ravens were expected to address the wide receiver position in the draft. And as so often seems to happen for Baltimore, an outstanding prospect dropped in their lap at the 26th spot in the 1st round in the form of Central Florida speedster Breshad Perriman. Let’s run down the check marks: good size at 6’2” and 212 pounds, outstanding speed with a 4.25-40 time, proven big play producer in college. It will be a surprise if Perriman isn’t lined up opposite Steve Smith on opening day. Throw in the fact that Perriman is a perfect fit to play with a strong armed quarterback in Joe Flacco that plays to his ability to make plays down the field and there might be some fantasy gold here, especially in dynasty formats. While Perriman may struggle early, he has tremendous upside and should be viewed as a solid WR4 with upside in redraft formats.

WR Steve Smith

Somewhat surprisingly, Smith entered the 2014 season on fire, generating some big plays on his way to gaining 640 yards and scoring four touchdowns on his 38 receptions during the first six weeks of the season. Unfortunately, his career renaissance was short lived as he struggled over the remainder of the season. The big plays dried up with Smith catching 41 passes for 425 yards and a pair of touchdowns during the final 10 games of the season. Looking ahead to 2015, Smith’s saving grace might be the departure of Torrey Smith and the continued injury struggles of tight end Dennis Pitta. That should keep his target count around the 134 he had last season, but we don’t view his big play production during the first portion of last season as being very easy to replicate. His upside is as a WR3, capable of approaching 900-950 receiving yards with 5-6 touchdowns.

WR Marlon Brown

After a promising rookie season in 2013 when he caught 49 receptions for 524 yards and seven touchdowns, Brown regressed badly during his sophomore season. Forced to split playing time with Kamar Aiken and Michael Campanaro, Brown saw his targets drop from 81 to 31 as he caught 24 passes for 255 yards while failing to find the end zone. Torrey Smith’s departure and the addition of rookie 1st round pick Breshad Perriman, coupled with the fact the team will likely enter the season without a proven pass catching option at tight end, offers a small glimpse of hope for Brown’s fantasy prospects. He failed to take advantage of Dennis Pitta’s injury shortened season last year, losing touches in the intermediate passing game to Owen Daniels. While Brown holds some appeal in dynasty formats mostly due to Steve Smiths’ age, he is waiver wire material in redraft formats.

TE Maxx Williams

With Dennis Pitta’s career in doubt and 2014 3rd round pick Crockett Gillmore viewed as more of a blocker than a receiver, the Ravens used a 2nd round pick in this year’s draft to acquire Maxx Williams, widely regarded as this year’s top tight end prospect. Williams is a talented player who should emerge as a solid weapon in the passing game, and the Ravens draft well so we expect that he will have a long, productive career provided he remains healthy. However, rookie tight ends regularly struggle (witness Eric Ebron’s struggles in 2014) so even if Pitta fails to return to health, we’re not expecting big things from Williams in 2015. And if Pitta does somehow steal some targets then Williams has no fantasy appeal whatsoever in redraft formats.

TE Dennis Pitta

Having dislocated and fractured his hip for the second time in two years, Pitta’s 2014 season came to an end in Week 3 last season. His medical prognosis isn’t promising and neither are his fantasy prospects. After showing such promise as a receiver during the 2012 season when he caught 61 passes for 669 yards and seven touchdowns, Pitta’s career has gone downhill with just seven games played over the last two years. At this point, it is even difficult to consider him worthy of stashing on your roster in the deepest of dynasty leagues.

Baltimore Ravens IDP Team Report

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For years the Baltimore Ravens have been a team known for their stout defense. 2014 was no different, as the Ravens ranked a very respectable eighth in the National Football League in total defense. There are some changes afoot for the Ravens in 2015, however – changes that could affect the Ravens from both an NFL and IDP perspective.

Defensive Linemen

The biggest of those changes occurred on the defensive line, where Haloti Ngata was traded to the Detroit Lions. At 31 Ngata might not be the force he once was either on the football field or for fantasy owners, but his departure still left the Ravens with a hole to fill up front.

That hole will be filled by second-year pro Timmy Jernigan, who was a second-round pick of the Ravens a year ago. Jernigan played somewhat sparingly as a rookie, but he told Garrett Downing of the team’s website he has his sights set much higher in 2015. “I want to go to the Pro Bowl. I’m not even going to sit here and lie to you,” Jernigan said. “I definitely want to win more games. That’s first. You definitely want to win more games, help the defense get even better.” That may be pushing it, but if the former Florida State standout can wrap up a full-time role Jernigan could at the very least be worth a late look as IDP depth.

For many years, veteran Terrell Suggs was a stalwart on the defensive line for IDP owners, but over the past couple of years Suggs has been re-classified as a linebacker by many providers. It’s simple – Suggs, who tallied 61 tackles and 12 sacks in 2014, is an elite IDP option if he has eligibility up front. But, as his 39th-place ranking in fantasy scoring shows, much of the shine comes off if he slots at LB.

Linebackers

Inside linebacker C.J. Mosley performed as advertised for the Ravens in 2014, racking up 133 tackles and finishing sixth at his position in fantasy points. Mosley told Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun that he’s only getting started. “For a rookie, I think I did pretty well,” Mosley said. “But I’m a rookie, so I’ve got a lot to work on and I can only go up from here.” The sky is the limit for Mosley, who is a rock-solid IDP LB1 capable of anchoring a defensive fantasy squad.

Mosley isn’t the only inside linebacker in Baltimore worth a relatively early look in IDP drafts. 12-year pro Daryl Smith has posted over 120 tackles in each of his two seasons with the Ravens, finishing inside the top 15 fantasy linebackers each of those years. Smith’s low solo numbers (almost half his tackles in Baltimore have been credited as assists) are a concern in some scoring systems, but the 33-year-old remains very much on the LB2 radar.

Defensive Backs

After a pair of disappointing NFL seasons, former first-round pick Matt Elam told Downing he knows it’s time for his production to meet his potential. “I’ve played two years and learned a lot and I just feel like it’s time. It’s past due.” Elam said. “I didn’t make the plays I was expected to make. They brought me here as a first-round pick, so they expect big things from me. I just feel like I have to take myself to the next level.”

That’s all well and good, but the fact remains that we heard much the same from Elam a year ago, and he wound up looking even worse than in his rookie season. Given that and a murky depth chart that includes the often-in-trouble Will Hill and uninspiring veteran Kendrick Lewis, the only defensive backs of much interest to IDP owners in Baltimore as things stand today are cornerbacks Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb – and that’s only in deeper IDP leagues that require their position.