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Hypothetical Bullpen Days and Why People Love Big Sexy Bartolo Colon

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Bartolo Colon

Remember this guy, Minnesota Twins fans? It is Bartolo Colon way back in 2000 pitching for the rival Cleveland Indians. Big Sexy celebrated his 45th birthday Thursday.

It’s closing in on two months into the major league season and not a lot of action yet with closers losing jobs. I’m trying hard folks to get some changes but it isn’t working out too well.

However, there are a couple other roads we could look down. With the Tampa Bay Rays starting Sergio Romo two days in a row against the Los Angeles Angels last weekend, I thought I would look at some potential situations in which teams might be able to pull something like this off just for fun. It will look more like a “bullpen” day for each team, assuming they have a pending off day or a long stretch of games.

New York Yankees

The first team I want to look at is the New York Yankees. With all of that fire power in the back end of the bullpen, it would be interesting to see how far Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green and David Robertson could go. For the sake of argument, I think I would break it down as follows: start Betances, Green, Chasen Shreve, and Robertson for two each, then bring in Chapman.

Houston Astros

Houston Astros is the next team not because of the greatness of their bullpen but more because of the versatility of the pitchers they have. I honestly think this team could do it and not miss a beat. The wild card would be Collin McHugh starting. He is listed as long relief which means he could throw multiple innings. I’ll take that and assume he can give me three. Even though he only pitched 19.2 innings in 15 appearances this season, he has some starting experience.

I’ll follow McHugh with Brad Peacock for two, Will Harris for two, Ken Giles (typed that very nervously), then Chris Devinski. The great thing about the Astros is that I could switch around Peacock, Giles and Devinski and really not miss a beat. The Astros bullpen is one major reason why they are the team to beat in Major League Baseball.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are my third, what if they had a bullpen day, experiment. If you’ve been reading my column the past few weeks, you’ll know that I’m very big on Josh Hader. Stud. Now that closer Corey Knebel is back, that moves Hader into the setup role, although I still think he should and will have the closer job sooner rather than later.

That being said, the Crew’s bullpen is legit. I’d start with Dan Jennings and as he is long relief, and try and get three innings out of him. Then it’s a piece of cake: Matt Albers for two, Jeremy Jeffress for two, Hader and then Knebel closing it out.

I think the Crew is a starting pitcher away from being mentioned among the contenders in the National League. Their bullpen is better than the Nats, Dodgers, Rockies, Cards, Cubs and Braves. A July trade may give Mr. Baseball, Bob Uecker, another world series in Milwaukee.

Extra Innings

Last week I went on my soap box about Robinson Cano and how people have a tough time taking accountability for themselves. This may sound hypocritical because the guy I want to talk about today is about as beloved a player there is in the league right now. Happy Birthday to Big Sexy Bartolo Colon, who turned 45 on Thursday.

Watching Colon over the years, he is a guy that as a Minnesota Twins fan, I was terrified to see when he was with the Indians. He threw heat plain and simple. I don’t know the exact record against the Twins while he was in Cleveland but I do know I didn’t go to bed happy very often when he pitched.

Then came the PED suspension in 2012 while with the Oakland A’s. Katrina Hamrick of Fanside’s Call to the Pen wrote an article on why we as fans celebrate Colon even though he had the PED suspension. Colon’s quote, in my opinion, is why.

“I apologize to the fans, to my teammates and to the Oakland A’s,” Colon said in a statement released by the players’ association. “I accept responsibility for my actions and I will serve my suspension as required by the joint drug program.”

Yes he apologized but he also took accountability for it. It wasn’t a doctor’s fault or he didn’t know what he was doing. He said I did it and moved on. We are a country of second and third chances and Colon fits into this.

So with this I say happy birthday Bart. You’ve brought smiles to a lot of fans around the country and in the game. You are all of us 40-somethings living through your successes on the field.

Target Percentages in Mock Draft Action

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Target Percentages guided author Chris Spencer to draft Boston Red Sox OF Mookie Betts with the 8th overall pick in a recent mock draft.

Recently, I introduced the concept of Target Percentages, the percentage of the targeted total stats a player earns for your fantasy baseball team based on his projections. Part one explains the concept and calculations in more detail. For part two, I will show you how to use Target Percentages during a draft.

In a perfect world you would like each batter (or pitcher) you draft to, “pull their own weight” by contributing positively to each category. For a simple example, let’s say you are in a league where you start 10 batters. Ideally, each batter accumulates 10% (or 1/10 starters) of your Runs, 10% of you HR, 10% of your RBI and 10% of your SB. In the ratio categories you just want to stay positive. For other league setups you simply identify your positive contribution line by 1/x where x is the number of batters (or pitchers) you start.

For this mock draft exercise I am drafting from the 8th slot using the same settings continued from part one on Target Percentages: 12-team league, 5×5 roto with 13 hitters, 9 pitchers and 3 bench spots. My positive contribution line is 7.7% (1/13) for batters and 11.1% (1/9) for pitchers.

I use color coding to draw attention to the players that are contributing positively and pulling their weight or better on my cheatsheet. Green indicates players that are giving me a positive contribution in that category by scoring 7.7% or more for batters or 11.1% or more for pitchers. Yellow indicates one percentage point away from being green (for batters, 6.7% to 7.69%). This indicator lets me know visually that they are close to contributing positively in that category.

I, personally, don’t color code the ratio categories since I am indicating negative numbers already in red. I suppose you could switch it around and color code positive contributors in green and maybe go down to -0.25 or -0.50 in yellow to indicate they are close to positive. Target Percentages are a tool to use however you see fit.

The last bit of draft prep I do is to identify my Star Players. I add up how many green categories for each player + positive ratio categories and that is their Star Factor. Hello, Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt! You will never see a 5-category pitcher. Why? They will never give you enough of what you need for Wins and Saves. These multi-category players are the ones you want to, um, target!

Click the image for the PDF cheatsheet showing target percentages detail used in this mock draft.

Here is a sample cheat sheet for this exercise. Click the image to open the PDF in a new tab. Please refrain from critiquing the cheatsheet (wink). This is meant as a demonstration of how to use Target Percentages during a draft. For this exercise I did a mock draft using FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Simulator. And, away we go…

Pick 1.8 (#8) – I am looking at Giancarlo Stanton, Mookie Betts or Manny Machado, or I can go Matt Scherzer, Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. I don’t like to draft a pitcher this early. Maybe at the turn, but not at 8. It really boils down to Betts vs. Stanton or in terms of categories the decision is SB and AVG vs. HR and RBI. Betts just misses being a 5-category star and I’m partial to banking high AVG guys early so the pick is Betts.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Mookie Betts 9% 7% 8% 13% 2.00

Pick 2.5 (#17) – Ugh, I was really hoping that Scherzer, Sale or Kluber would make it back to me here but they were all taken. I still have one SP on my cheat sheet that gives me a solid starting foundation for my pitching squad in Noah Syndergaard.

I’m not positive that he will make it back to me as his ADP is late second round to early third, but I’m going to take my chances that I get him at pick #32. Looking at batters, I’ve got Machado, Francisco Lindor and Joey Votto remaining as 4-category stars. Much like Betts, Lindor is a few HR short of being a 5-category star and a shortstop, so I take him. Adding him to Betts gives me:

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Mookie Betts (OF1) 9% 7% 8% 13% 2.00
Francisco Lindor (SS) 8% 7% 8% 9% 1.50
New Batting Total 17% 14% 16% 22% 3.50

Pick 3.8 (#32) – Well, Thor is still here so I snatch him. The three 3-category batters remaining are Brian Dozier, Marcell Ozuna and Jose Abreu. Dozier is out due to the -2.00 AVG hit. I’m going to be taking enough hits later so I don’t need to do so now. Ozuna and Abreu are twins with the same Target Percentage lines so I’m going to cross my fingers and hope one of them is still there in the round 4.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Noah Syndergaard (SP) 12% 0% 14% 1.25 2.00

Pick 4.5 (#41) – Well, all three 3-category guys went off the board. I’m going to snag one of the few batters out there with a high HR% and an AVG that doesn’t put me in a bottomless crater.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Old Batting Total 17% 14% 16% 22% 3.50
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) 7% 10% 9% 1% -2.25
New Batting Total 24% 24% 25% 23% 1.25

Pick 5.8 (#56) – I’m beginning to see a lot of red remaining on my starting pitchers cheatsheet. I want to get a SP2 that will not put a sizeable dent in the solid ratios Thor gives me so I grab an Archer (Chris Archer) to go with the Hammer.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Noah Syndergaard (SP1) 12% 0% 14% 1.25 2.00
Chris Archer (SP2) 11% 0% 14% 0.25 0.50
New Pitching Total 23% 0% 28% 1.50 2.50

Pick 6.5 (#65) – Whew, it worked. I was hoping Aroldis Chapman would make it back to me! He’s one of the four closers that are 0.75 or higher in ERA.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Old Pitching Total 23% 0% 28% 1.50 2.50
Aroldis Chapman (RP1) 4% 24% 6% 0.75 0.50
New Pitching Total 27% 24% 34% 2.25 3.00

Pick 7.8 (#80) – I’m going with Andrew McCutchen who just misses projections in the green on Runs, HR and RBI. I feel it is important to point out that a player may have 8% for a category but still be yellow. This is due to rounding. McCutchen for example actually scored 7.66% in Runs but rounded up to 8%.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Old Hitting Total 24% 24% 25% 23% 1.25
Andrew McCutchen (OF2) 8% 7% 7% 6% -0.75
New Hitting Total 32% 31% 32% 29% 0.50

Pick 8.5 (#89) – I had intended to reach for DJ LeMahieu here to get his +2.75 help in AVG, but alas, it was not meant to be. I’m starting to notice the lack of green left on my cheat sheet for HR and RBI so I take one of my favorites, Miguel Cabrera.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Old Hitting Total 32% 31% 32% 29% 0.50
Miguel Cabrera (CI) 6% 7% 7% 1% 0.75
New Hitting Total 38% 38% 39% 30% 1.25

Pick 9.8 (#104) – I’m taking Rougned Odor to help me in HR but he is going to put me in the negative in AVG, which stinks. See what I did there? The good news is that there are some positive AVG guys still available in the outfield.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Old Hitting Total 38% 38% 39% 30% 1.25
Rougned Odor (2B) 6% 8% 8% 8% -2.00
New Hitting Total 44% 46% 47% 38% -0.75

Pick 10.5 (#113) – Taking closer number two. You have to take one somewhere. Why not here? Brad Hand is one of the remaining closers available with a high SV% and positive ratios.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Old Pitching Total 27% 24% 34% 2.25 3.00
Brad Hand (RP2) 3% 24% 5% 0.25 0.00
New Pitching Total 30% 48% 39% 2.50 3.00

Pick 11.8 (#128) – Kyle Seager, Ender Inciarte or closer number three. Still some decent OF out there so I am adding Seager. And, yes I see my AVG sinking lower.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Old Hitting Total 44% 46% 47% 38% -0.75
Kyle Seager (3B) 7% 7% 7% 2% -1.50
New Hitting Total 51% 53% 54% 40% -2.25

Pick 12.5 (#137) – My third and final closer, Alex Colome. He was one of the few left with a high SV%.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Old Pitching Total 30% 48% 39% 2.50 3.00
Alex Colome (RP3) 3% 28% 4% -0.25 -0.50
New Pitching Total 33% 76% 43% 2.25 2.50

Okay, hopefully you’ve gotten a good grasp of utilizing Target Percentages during the draft. I’m not going to go pick by pick for the rest of the draft, but so far I’ve drafted seven batters and five pitchers.

With my remaining six batters to draft as starters I need to draft C, MI, 3 OF and UT and make up 49% in Runs, 47% in HR, 46% in RBI and 60% in SB all while trying to get back positive in AVG. I will have to target players with an average HR score of 8.1% to achieve 100%. It’s not impossible to do this, but it limits some of the players you can select during the rest of the draft.

For example, a quick look at the remaining catchers and I see that there is not a single player with a HR% score greater than 6%. So, when I select my catcher, I have to make up for the shortcoming at another position.

With my remaining four pitchers to draft as starters I will focus on three starting pitchers and one reliever to make up 67% of Wins, 24% of Saves and 57% of K. This will be nearly impossible to do in the draft and speaks more to the nature of pitching in fantasy baseball. You will fill in the gaps with players from the waiver wire, a story for another day.

I hope that this example was helpful to you, and I hope you are getting the idea of how to use Target Percentages – they’ll keep you on target during your draft!

Top Prospects Making an Impact – Hellickson, Chapman, Freeman

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On the DraftBuddy.com 2011 Consensus Top Prospects List there are thirteen prospects that stand out from the crowd. These thirteen are all players expected to spend some time with their big league club this season and five are likely to make a significant fantasy impact. Let’s take a closer examination at this baker’s dozen and their anticipated role in the Majors.

Bryce Harper, OF, WAS

This guy has superstar written all over him. He’s so good, Washington sent him to the Arizona Fall League as his first taste of professional baseball. He will start 2011 in Single-A, but he’ll make all the stops on his way to Washington next summer. Now the team has to figure out where to move Jayson Werth, because right field belongs to Harper from the day he lands. If you are in a keeper league, this is an “all-in” situation.

Mike Trout, OF, LAA

Here is another guy who looks like a future superstar. He has all of the tools needed to become a special player, and eventual fantasy stud. Trout just needs experience under his belt. He’s another “all-in” guy for keeper leagues.

Jesus Montero, C, NYY

There’s a good chance the New York Yankees keep Montero as the backup catcher to start the season with extra at-bats as the designated hitter here and there. Think Mike Piazza with this kid both in ability with a bat and behind the plate. That being said, Montero might find himself at a different position than catcher unless his defense improves and improves consistently.

Domonic Brown, OF, PHI

Brown had a path cleared for him by the departure of Werth and was poised to roam right field in Philadelphia for the next dozen years starting Opening Day 2011 until a broken hamate derailed the start of his season. He’ll eventually be a 30-homer guy with good speed.

Jeremy Hellickson, P, TB

Hellickson won Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year in 2010 and even made 10 appearances for Tampa Bay last season, going 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA. He’ll start the season in the Rays’ rotation but will likely find himself at the front end of the rotation in a year or two.

Julio Teheran, P, ATL

Long and lean (6’2″, 150 lbs), Teheran is just as good as Hellickson, but four years younger. The Braves have no reason to bring him up until mid-season, but he’ll likely be the go-to guy if a starting pitcher is needed after Super Two concerns have passed. He has a higher ceiling than Hellickson, but not the experience.

Aroldis Chapman, P, CIN

The Cuban fireballer who throws 105 MPH looks to be headed for a gig in the Cincinnati Reds bullpen, but Chapman is legit. He’ll do well wherever the Reds put him this year, but it looks like his innings are being limited due to his young age and lack of consistent control. His future is in the rotation. His fastball has been compared to Nolan Ryan’s and his slider to Randy Johnson’s – Yowza!

Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC

Hosmer can do it all with the bat, hitting for power and average while showing a strong grasp of the strikezone. He is being tried in left field as the Royals have a backlog at first base, but his bat will be elite anywhere he ends up.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC

He grew out of the shortstop position, but his bat is still the real thing. He has very little range, but he will probably stick at third base. He can hit for power and doesn’t strike out a lot, but he isn’t very patient. He’ll be up in June as soon as he clears the Super Two date.

Dustin Ackley, 2B, SEA

There is no question that Ackley will man Seattle’s keystone position for the next decade, but his bat will play in a very Dustin Pedroia-like way. Ackley is an outfielder who was converted to first base in college because of an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery, and now he is being moved to second base for similar concerns about his arm. He is the best pure hitter to come out of college in quite some time and he dominated the AFL in 2010. If the position change doesn’t work out, a move to centerfield could result, but his bat will be fine wherever his glove settles.

Desmond Jennings, OF, TB

Jennings is a five-tool athlete who will be Tampa’s centerfielder of the future. The only question is when that time will be. With the signing of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez each to one-year contracts, it is likely that B.J. Upton will be moved over to left field to make room for Jennings in 2012. He has speed, power, and a contact bat.

Wil Myers, OF, KC

The third Royals player on our list is a converted catcher, who will get more at-bats if he isn’t getting beaten up behind the plate, similar to Harper who started out as a catcher. He has dominated each of the two levels he’s played at, both as one of the youngest in the league. His arm and speed should translate to right field well, and his bat is definitely the kind of thing you see from a star in the corner outfield.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL

Freeman will get the most playing time of this group in the Majors in 2011. The Braves have handed him the starting job and there is no pressure on him to perform with the bat early on. Freeman will likely struggle early, but he tore up the International League last season as one of its’ youngest players, so long-term success looks good. He’s not a typical first base power hitter. Freeman is more in the Mark Grace mold sporting a high average and doubles power.