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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Monday August 27

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Toronto Blue Jays are facing a RHP on road (David Hess BAL who has faced 315 batters). On FanDuel the Blue Jays are currently putting up 2.13 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and David Hess is currently allowing 120% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.56 (2.13 x 120%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Blue Jays RHP on road David Hess BAL 315 2.13 x 120% 2.56 +0.43 1.62 x 118% 1.91 +0.29
Diamondbacks RHP on road Chris Stratton SFG 468 2.10 x 119% 2.50 +0.40 1.59 x 119% 1.88 +0.29
Rockies RHP on road Odrisamer Despaigne LAA 128 2.02 x 124% 2.49 +0.48 1.53 x 120% 1.84 +0.31
Orioles RHP at home Sam Gaviglio TOR 418 2.19 x 111% 2.43 +0.24 1.67 x 111% 1.86 +0.19
Angels RHP at home Jon Gray COL 598 2.34 x 103% 2.42 +0.08 1.77 x 103% 1.83 +0.05
Phillies RHP at home Stephen Strasburg WSN 370 2.19 x 104% 2.29 +0.10 1.66 x 104% 1.74 +0.07
Astros LHP at home Brett Anderson OAK 252 2.25 x 96% 2.16 -0.09 1.71 x 98% 1.68 -0.03
Nationals RHP on road Zach Eflin PHI 421 2.10 x 100% 2.10 +0.00 1.60 x 100% 1.61 +0.01
Mets LHP on road Jon Lester CHC 615 2.08 x 100% 2.08 +0.00 1.58 x 101% 1.59 +0.01
White Sox RHP on road Masahiro Tanaka NYY 483 2.05 x 101% 2.07 +0.02 1.57 x 101% 1.59 +0.02
Yankees LHP at home Carlos Rodon CHW 345 2.50 x 78% 1.95 -0.55 1.88 x 77% 1.46 -0.43
Athletics RHP on road Gerrit Cole HOU 651 2.45 x 79% 1.93 -0.53 1.86 x 78% 1.46 -0.40
Cubs RHP at home Noah Syndergaard NYM 452 2.26 x 84% 1.89 -0.37 1.71 x 87% 1.48 -0.23
Giants LHP at home Patrick Corbin ARI 642 2.03 x 80% 1.62 -0.42 1.57 x 80% 1.26 -0.31

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Friday August 24

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Arizona Diamondbacks are facing a RHP at home (Erasmo Ramirez SEA who has faced 85 batters). On FanDuel the Diamondbacks are currently putting up 2.10 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Erasmo Ramirez is currently allowing 133% more PPA than the MLB average (2.116 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.80 (2.10 x 133%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Diamondbacks RHP at home Erasmo Ramirez SEA 85 2.10 x 133% 2.80 +0.70 1.59 x 133% 2.12 +0.53
Nationals LHP on road Jason Vargas NYM 272 1.98 x 142% 2.81 +0.83 1.49 x 140% 2.10 +0.60
Athletics RHP on road Jake Odorizzi MIN 571 2.43 x 109% 2.65 +0.22 1.85 x 108% 1.99 +0.14
Giants RHP at home Drew Hutchison TEX 155 2.14 x 124% 2.65 +0.51 1.63 x 122% 1.99 +0.36
Yankees RHP on road Alex Cobb BAL 579 2.14 x 118% 2.52 +0.38 1.62 x 118% 1.90 +0.29
Astros LHP on road Andrew Heaney LAA 583 2.52 x 99% 2.50 -0.02 1.92 x 99% 1.90 -0.02
Braves RHP on road Dan Straily MIA 450 2.15 x 113% 2.43 +0.27 1.64 x 110% 1.82 +0.17
Tigers RHP at home Reynaldo Lopez CHW 621 2.04 x 110% 2.25 +0.21 1.57 x 109% 1.71 +0.14
Mets RHP at home Jefry Rodriguez WSN 131 1.82 x 124% 2.26 +0.44 1.40 x 121% 1.69 +0.29
Mariners RHP on road Zack Godley ARI 631 2.17 x 101% 2.19 +0.02 1.67 x 100% 1.66 -0.01
Blue Jays RHP at home Jake Arrieta PHI 567 2.32 x 94% 2.19 -0.13 1.76 x 94% 1.65 -0.11
White Sox RHP on road Michael Fulmer DET 471 2.04 x 106% 2.15 +0.11 1.56 x 105% 1.63 +0.08
Cardinals RHP on road Antonio Senzatela COL 226 2.18 x 97% 2.12 -0.06 1.66 x 97% 1.61 -0.05
Dodgers LHP at home Clayton Richard SDP 661 1.94 x 108% 2.10 +0.16 1.48 x 107% 1.58 +0.10
Padres LHP on road Rich Hill LAD 388 2.01 x 98% 1.97 -0.04 1.55 x 98% 1.52 -0.03
Brewers RHP at home Joe Musgrove PIT 367 2.24 x 86% 1.94 -0.31 1.71 x 88% 1.51 -0.20
Red Sox TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 1.94 x 100% 1.94 +0.00 1.49 x 100% 1.49 +0.00
Twins LHP at home Sean Manaea OAK 633 2.10 x 91% 1.91 -0.18 1.61 x 92% 1.49 -0.12
Orioles LHP at home CC Sabathia NYY 517 1.96 x 94% 1.85 -0.11 1.53 x 95% 1.45 -0.08
Phillies LHP on road Ryan Borucki TOR 236 1.72 x 108% 1.85 +0.13 1.32 x 108% 1.43 +0.11
Indians RHP on road Brad Keller KCR 416 2.15 x 85% 1.83 -0.32 1.63 x 87% 1.42 -0.21
Rockies RHP at home Miles Mikolas STL 629 2.29 x 77% 1.77 -0.52 1.75 x 80% 1.40 -0.35
Rays RHP at home Hector Velazquez BOS 281 2.01 x 84% 1.68 -0.33 1.54 x 88% 1.36 -0.19
Royals RHP at home Mike Clevinger CLE 646 1.88 x 90% 1.69 -0.19 1.45 x 91% 1.32 -0.13
Pirates LHP on road Wade Miley MIL 187 2.16 x 78% 1.70 -0.47 1.65 x 79% 1.30 -0.35
Angels LHP at home Dallas Keuchel HOU 681 1.77 x 92% 1.62 -0.15 1.36 x 93% 1.27 -0.09
Rangers RHP on road Dereck Rodriguez SFG 320 2.01 x 76% 1.54 -0.48 1.54 x 78% 1.20 -0.34
Marlins RHP at home Mike Foltynewicz ATL 572 1.82 x 83% 1.52 -0.30 1.42 x 84% 1.19 -0.23

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Cubs LHP at home Matt Harvey CIN 502 2.52 x 109% 2.75 +0.23 1.90 x 109% 2.07 +0.17
Reds RHP on road Alec Mills CHC 6 2.02 x 0% 0.00 -2.02 1.55 x 0% 0.00 -1.55

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Wednesday August 22

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Colorado Rockies are facing a RHP at home (Jacob Nix SDP who has faced 34 batters). On FanDuel the Rockies are currently putting up 2.28 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Jacob Nix is currently allowing 117% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.68 (2.28 x 117%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Rockies RHP at home Jacob Nix SDP 34 2.28 x 117% 2.68 +0.40 1.74 x 117% 2.03 +0.29
Diamondbacks RHP at home Odrisamer Despaigne LAA 110 2.10 x 122% 2.57 +0.47 1.59 x 118% 1.88 +0.29
Cubs RHP on road Francisco Liriano DET 425 2.13 x 114% 2.44 +0.30 1.64 x 112% 1.83 +0.19
Red Sox RHP at home Carlos Carrasco CLE 577 2.49 x 89% 2.21 -0.28 1.89 x 91% 1.71 -0.18
Nationals RHP at home Zach Eflin PHI 399 2.31 x 96% 2.23 -0.09 1.75 x 97% 1.69 -0.06
Rays RHP at home Jakob Junis KCR 578 2.00 x 110% 2.20 +0.20 1.54 x 110% 1.69 +0.15
Tigers LHP at home Jon Lester CHC 592 2.17 x 101% 2.20 +0.03 1.66 x 102% 1.69 +0.03
Indians LHP on road Brian Johnson BOS 338 2.14 x 101% 2.17 +0.03 1.64 x 102% 1.68 +0.04
Yankees RHP on road Trevor Richards MIA 393 2.15 x 102% 2.19 +0.04 1.63 x 102% 1.65 +0.03
Pirates RHP at home Julio Teheran ATL 558 2.07 x 103% 2.13 +0.06 1.58 x 100% 1.59 +0.00
Braves RHP on road Trevor Williams PIT 541 2.16 x 92% 2.00 -0.16 1.65 x 93% 1.53 -0.12
Phillies RHP on road Stephen Strasburg WSN 351 1.98 x 99% 1.96 -0.02 1.51 x 99% 1.50 -0.01
Padres RHP on road Jon Gray COL 573 1.84 x 104% 1.92 +0.08 1.43 x 104% 1.48 +0.06
Dodgers RHP at home Jack Flaherty STL 443 2.26 x 85% 1.91 -0.35 1.71 x 84% 1.45 -0.27
Angels RHP on road Clay Buchholz ARI 295 2.25 x 82% 1.84 -0.41 1.72 x 84% 1.44 -0.27
Marlins RHP at home Lance Lynn NYY 553 1.79 x 104% 1.86 +0.07 1.39 x 102% 1.43 +0.03
Cardinals RHP on road Walker Buehler LAD 351 2.19 x 83% 1.82 -0.37 1.67 x 84% 1.40 -0.27
Royals TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 1.70 x 100% 1.70 +0.00 1.31 x 100% 1.31 +0.00
Giants RHP on road Noah Syndergaard NYM 428 1.78 x 85% 1.51 -0.27 1.39 x 88% 1.22 -0.17
Mets RHP at home Casey Kelly SFG 45 1.80 x 71% 1.27 -0.53 1.38 x 78% 1.08 -0.30

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Blue Jays RHP at home David Hess BAL 291 2.31 x 125% 2.89 +0.59 1.75 x 123% 2.16 +0.41
Brewers RHP at home Robert Stephenson CIN 31 2.24 x 124% 2.78 +0.54 1.70 x 114% 1.94 +0.24
Astros LHP on road Marco Gonzales SEA 588 2.49 x 97% 2.41 -0.07 1.90 x 99% 1.88 -0.02
Athletics LHP at home Mike Minor TEX 508 2.09 x 109% 2.28 +0.20 1.58 x 109% 1.72 +0.14
White Sox RHP at home Kyle Gibson MIN 640 2.14 x 91% 1.95 -0.19 1.64 x 91% 1.50 -0.14
Reds RHP on road Freddy Peralta MIL 259 2.04 x 96% 1.97 -0.07 1.56 x 92% 1.43 -0.13
Mariners RHP at home Charlie Morton HOU 587 2.01 x 83% 1.67 -0.34 1.56 x 83% 1.30 -0.26
Rangers RHP on road Edwin Jackson OAK 237 2.01 x 83% 1.67 -0.33 1.53 x 84% 1.28 -0.25
Orioles TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TOR – 1.60 x 100% 1.60 +0.00 1.26 x 100% 1.26 +0.00
Twins LHP on road Carlos Rodon CHW 321 1.82 x 78% 1.42 -0.40 1.39 x 77% 1.08 -0.32