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Roll The Dice on These Unlucky Pitchers

February 20, 2019 By kopasetic Leave a Comment

Philadelphia Phillies Nick Pivetta

Philadelphia Phillies Nick Pivetta was one of the unluckiest starting pitchers in 2018. Thanks to that, coupled with a decent K/9 and low ADP, Pivetta is a good bet as a 2019 fantasy baseball undervalued pitcher.

Last week I discussed starting pitchers that I thought were too lucky last season. They could be considered 2019 fantasy baseball overvalued pitchers, given their luck last season made them look better than they really are. We can’t expect that luck to continue this season.

Using the same process, here I highlight starting pitchers that were too unlucky last season. This helps us identify some starters later in your draft that could be in line for a better year, or 2019 fantasy baseball undervalued pitchers.

Using the same metrics in my analysis – ERA-xFIP, BABIP, LOB%, GB%, HR/FB (check the previous article for details) – I tabulated if each of 128 qualifying starting pitchers were unlucky in 2018. To determine what unlucky looks like, I came up with these guidelines based on a weighted average over the last 5 years:

  • ERA-xFIP higher than +0.5
  • BABIP higher than 0.305
  • LOB% lower than 71.4%
  • GB% lower than 42.8%
  • HR/FB higher than 14.1%

LUCK COULD TURN AROUND

This analysis resulted in the following potentially undervalued starting pitchers for the 2019 fantasy baseball season, given their high un-luck score and ADP. Stats are from FanGraphs. ADP info is from FantasyPros as of February 18, 2019.

Chris Archer ADP SP #34 · Overall #132

Season Innings ERA xFIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2016 201.1 4.02 3.41 0.61 .296 72.5% 47.8% 16.2%
2017 201.0 4.07 3.35 0.72 .325 71.3% 42.0% 14.1%
2018 148.1 4.31 3.59 0.72 .338 72.5% 44.6% 14.1%

Archer came in as the 14th unluckiest pitcher in this analysis. He has the 2nd highest BABIP and 21st highest ERA-xFIP. Although his 2018 GB% was higher than the league average 43.0%, his career GB% is 45.6%. This tells me that he gets batters to hit grounders more than usual.

You can make the argument that he has been unlucky for the past three seasons, not just 2018. One of these years he’s going to flip the script and give us the season we’ve all been waiting for. Could it be 2019? With a career 9.73 K/9 he will always be drafted. This might be the lowest price you’ll ever have to pay for him. As your 3rd starter in a 12-team league or 4th in a 10-team league. Why not take a chance on him?

Nick Pivetta ADP SP #45 · Overall #171

Season Innings ERA xFIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2017 133.0 6.02 4.26 1.76 .332 67.1% 43.8% 18.2%
2018 164.0 4.77 3.42 1.35 .326 69.0% 46.7% 15.8%

Pivetta came in as the 6th unluckiest pitcher. He had the 4th highest ERA-xFIP, the 6th highest BABIP, the 20th highest HR/FB rate and the 24th lowest LOB%. The only “luck” he had going for him was his unusually high GB%.

True, we have a small sample size on Pivetta and the numbers are “unlucky” across the board (again, with the exception of GB%). He’s being drafted as a #4 starter in 12-team leagues (#5 in 10-team leagues). Why not roll the dice on him and his career 9.94 K/9?

Jon Gray ADP SP #53 · Overall #188

Season Innings ERA xFIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2016 168.0 4.61 3.61 1.00 .308 66.4% 43.5% 12.8%
2017 110.1 3.67 3.45 0.22 .336 74.8% 48.9% 11.1%
2018 172.1 5.12 3.47 1.65 .322 67.9% 47.5% 18.1%

Gray checks in as the 3rd unluckiest pitcher last season. He had the 2nd highest ERA-xFIP, 6th highest HR/FB rate, 14th highest BABIP and 15th lowest LOB%. Like Pivetta, his GB% was very high last season.

He’s being drafted about a round later than Pivetta as a #5 starter in 12-team leagues (#6 in 10-team leagues). And like, Pivetta he has a desirable 9.53 K/9. Now, I’m not advising you draft both him and Pivetta… but, Gray could serve you well as a late round gamble. Gray has even admitted that he wasn’t healthy last season as is looking to rebound.

Dylan Bundy ADP SP #79 · Overall #290

Season Innings ERA xFIP ERA-xFIP BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB
2016 109.2 4.02 4.61 -0.59 .299 79.7% 35.9% 13.3%
2017 169.2 4.24 4.77 -0.53 .273 73.7% 32.8% 11.5%
2018 171.2 5.45 4.28 1.17 .316 69.3% 34.0% 17.8%

Ah, we’ve come to our unluckiest pitcher in the 2018 season. Bundy struggled his way to be Top 27 unluckiest in all five metrics, and Top 8 in three (ERA-xFIP, GB% and HR/FB rate). While 2018 is arguably his worst year yet, he did post a career high 9.65 K/9. So there is that.

Bundy is not going to be a difference maker in 2019 but he’s a guy to take a late round flier in deeper leagues (15-teams or more) or keep your eyes on him early in the season. If it looks like he’s righting the ship, stream him occasionally.

* Additionally, the #2 & #4 unluckiest pitchers were Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani, respectively. Bailey recently signed a minor league deal with the Kansas City Royals and is currently being drafted as SP #223. Safe to ignore him in any draft. DeSclafani is being drafted as SP #125 and therefore mostly irrelevant except in deep, deep leagues.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Straight Cheese Week 23 Streaming Starting Pitchers – DeSclafani, Velasquez, Cahill

September 6, 2018 By kopasetic 1 Comment

Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds

Rough week last week for streaming pitchers but looking for a rebound this week, going back to the well with right hander Anthony DeSclafani of the Cincinnati Reds, facing the San Diego Padres Friday.

Fantasy baseball owners, this is the place where you come to get the Straight Cheese on less than desirable, questionably talented, less than 50% owned starting pitchers you can use for a spot start. Streaming pitchers is necessary to get those all-important counting stats for your roto league without drop-kicking your ratio stats into submission.

Before we dive into the dumpster looking for week 23 streaming starting pitchers, let’s take a look back at my picks from last week.

Week 22 Review

Name Date GS IP ER H BB K Dec ERA WHIP
Brad Keller KCR 8/31 vs BAL 1 8.00 2 4 2 4 W 2.25 0.75
Brian Johnson BOS 9/2 @ CHW 1 1.33 4 7 1 2 L 27.00 6.00
Lance Lynn NYY 9/2 vs DET 1 3.67 6 9 1 6 L 14.73 2.73
Total for Week   3 13.00 12 20 4 12 1-2 8.31 1.85
Running Total   64 371.00 138 313 120 362 31-15 3.35 1.17

To say Sunday blew up in my face is an understatement. Wow, who would have guessed that both starting pitchers from the Red Sox and Yankees would end up completely crapping the bed? I was on a very nice roll there and slammed into a brick wall when the calendar flipped to September. Don’t worry, Hoss. I really like this week’s trio of hurlers and believe we’ll be back on our feet.

Week 23 Streaming Starting Pitchers

The pitchers are listed in order of appearance as of Wednesday morning. Ownership info from Yahoo! (Y) and ESPN (E) and all 2018 stats are through Tuesday, September 4th.

RHP Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
Owned Y20%/E19% · vs San Diego Padres – Friday, September 7th

Maybe it is because they are too acclimated to the beautiful San Diego weather? How else can you explain the ineptitude away from Petco Park? Against RHP on the road they are currently posting a 0.285 wOBA (29th), 0.128 iso (last) and striking out 26.3% of the time (also last).

DeSclafani comes into the matchup with a 4.37 era (3.99 xFIP), 1.24 whip and striking out batters 21.0% of the time in 90 2/3 innings (7.84 k/9). He’s slightly better at home with a 4.34 era (3.33 xFIP), 1.24 whip and 24.3 k% (9.00 k/9).

RHP Vince Velasquez, PHI
Owned Y44%/E35% · @ New York Mets – Sunday, September 9th

Through Tuesday the Mets have a 0.283 wOBA (last in mlb), 0.139 iso (26th) and a striking out 22.6% of the time (22nd) when facing RHP at home. Enter Velasquez and his 4.10 era (3.99 xFIP), 1.25 whip and striking out batters 26.3% of the time (9.94 k/9). This is a situation where he should excel.

RHP Trevor Cahill, OAK
Owned Y33%/E30% · vs Texas Rangers – Sunday, September 9th

The Rangers struggle on the road. This is the 10th time I’ve written that this season. The previous 9 times I suggested streaming a pitcher against the Rangers resulted in a 1.94 era, 1.22 whip, 6 wins and 46 strikeouts in 51 innings. Currently versus RHP on the road they have a 0.305 wOBA (20th), 0.162 iso (16th) and strikeout 25.3% of the time (27th).

Cahill currently has a 3.60 era (3.59 xFIP), 1.16 whip and is striking out batters 22.7% of the time (8.28 k/9). Even better are his home numbers: 3.60 era (2.83 xFIP), 0.78 whip and 28.4 k% (9.36 k/9). This is the 3rd time I’m suggesting streaming Cahill. The other two times he pitched absolute gems: 22 strikeouts in 12 scoreless innings. Let’s make it three.

Remember, these suggestions aren’t ludicrous. They’re @Roto_Chris.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Straight Cheese Streaming Pitchers Week 20 – Twins and Reds, Friday and Sunday

August 16, 2018 By kopasetic Leave a Comment

Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds

Off another strong week, Chris says fire up Minnesota Twins and Cincinnati Reds starters this weekend in his latest Straight Cheese, including Reds’ Anthony DeSclafani on Friday against the San Francisco Giants.

Fantasy baseball owners, this is the place where you come to get the Straight Cheese on less than desirable, questionably talented, less than 50% owned starting pitchers you can use for a spot start. Streaming pitchers is necessary to get those all-important counting stats for your roto league without drop-kicking your ratio stats into submission.

Before we dive into the dumpster looking for streaming pitchers week 20, let’s take a look back at my picks from last week.

Week 19 Review

Name Date GS IP ER H BB K Dec ERA WHIP
Lance Lynn NYY 8/11 vs TEX 1 5.00 1 5 3 8 - 1.80 1.60
CC Sabathia NYY 8/12 vs TEX 1 6.00 0 1 3 7 W 0.00 0.67
Matt Boyd DET 8/12 vs MIN 1 6.00 1 2 1 3 W 1.50 0.50
Total for Week   3 17.00 2 8 7 18 2-0 1.06 0.88
Running Total   54 312.67 115 262 102 313 24-12 3.44 1.18

Another great week by yours truly. The Stream-O-Matic 2000™ is without a doubt, el fuego. Picking nits, I’d have to point out that Boyd’s strikeout total was disappointing. This week we’re picking on two teams in advantageous positions (well, for us anyways).

Streaming Pitchers Week 20

The pitchers are listed in order of appearance as of Wednesday morning. Ownership info from Yahoo! (Y) and ESPN (E) and all 2018 stats are through Tuesday, August 14th.

RHP Kyle Gibson, MIN
Owned Y45%/E42% · vs Detroit Tigers – Friday, August 17th

RHP Jake Odorizzi, MIN
Owned Y41%/E19% · vs Detroit Tigers – Sunday, August 19th

The Detroit Tigers come into Minnesota for the weekend series flat-out struggling against RHP on the road. They are currently last in MLB with a 0.268 wOBA and a 0.113 iso vs righties on the road. They are also striking out 24.0% of the time (21st) in same situation. Both Gibson and Odorizzi should be able to take advantage.

Gibson will get the first crack on Friday night. He comes into the matchup with a 3.49 era, 1.24 whip and 139 strikeouts in 147 innings. That’s an 8.51 k/9 and 22.7 k%. Why he’s owned in less than half of leagues is baffling. Odorizzi’s numbers aren’t nearly as good as Gibson’s (4.44 era, 1.39 whip and 129 strikeouts in 125 2/3 innings; 9/24 k/9 and 23.5 k%) but Detroit’s sub-optimal performance vs. RHP on the road should lead to serviceable numbers you can use.

RHP Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
Owned Y9%/E7% · vs San Francisco Giants – Friday, August 17th

RHP Luis Castillo, CIN
Owned Y58%/E40% · vs San Francisco Giants – Sunday, August 19th

San Francisco Giants enter this weekend’s series versus Cincinnati Reds with a 0.299 wOBA (23rd), 0.137 iso (27th) and 25.1 k% (25th) vs. RHP on the road. That bodes well for both DeSclafani and Castillo as they both pitch better at home.

DeSclafani currently has a 4.46 era, 1.22 whip and 59 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings (7.97 k/9 and 21.5 k%). In home games his ratios are slightly worse but he is striking out more batters: 4.74 era, 1.31 whip and 47 strikeouts in 43 2/2 innings (9.69 k/9 and 25.7 k%). His last two starts could arguably be his best of the season (only 1 earned run, 9 hits, 1 walk and 11 strikeouts in 14 innings). One start was at home and the other was on the road.

Meanwhile, Castillo has a 5.04 era, 1.32 whip and 120 strikeouts in 126 2/3 innings. Unlike DeSclafani, Castillo is clearly a better pitcher at home. In 64 innings pitched in Great American Ballpark this season he has a 3.94 era, 1.13 whip and 71 strikeouts (9.98 k/9 and 27.1 k%).

Remember, these suggestions aren’t ludicrous. They’re @Roto_Chris.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

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