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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Wednesday September 5

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Pittsburgh Pirates are facing a RHP at home (Homer Bailey CIN who has faced 473 batters). On FanDuel the Pirates are currently putting up 2.05 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Homer Bailey is currently allowing 134% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.74 (2.05 x 134%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Pirates RHP at home Homer Bailey CIN 473 2.05 x 134% 2.74 +0.69 1.57 x 133% 2.09 +0.52
Rockies LHP at home Andrew Suarez SFG 548 2.62 x 104% 2.71 +0.10 2.00 x 105% 2.10 +0.10
Angels RHP on road Bartolo Colon TEX 596 2.17 x 122% 2.66 +0.49 1.66 x 123% 2.04 +0.38
White Sox RHP at home Jordan Zimmermann DET 451 2.17 x 112% 2.44 +0.27 1.67 x 114% 1.89 +0.23
Mariners RHP at home Andrew Cashner BAL 643 2.01 x 116% 2.34 +0.32 1.56 x 115% 1.80 +0.24
Rangers RHP at home Jaime Barria LAA 441 2.38 x 94% 2.25 -0.13 1.78 x 96% 1.72 -0.07
Astros RHP at home Jake Odorizzi MIN 619 2.09 x 107% 2.22 +0.14 1.58 x 105% 1.66 +0.08
Rays RHP on road Aaron Sanchez TOR 404 2.00 x 109% 2.18 +0.19 1.54 x 107% 1.66 +0.11
Blue Jays RHP at home Tyler Glasnow TBR 358 2.29 x 95% 2.18 -0.11 1.74 x 93% 1.61 -0.13
Brewers LHP at home Jose Quintana CHC 602 2.07 x 103% 2.13 +0.06 1.57 x 102% 1.61 +0.04
Yankees RHP on road Mike Fiers OAK 609 2.18 x 96% 2.10 -0.08 1.64 x 99% 1.63 -0.02
Cardinals RHP on road Tanner Roark WSN 691 2.18 x 96% 2.10 -0.08 1.66 x 97% 1.61 -0.05
Orioles RHP on road Mike Leake SEA 692 1.91 x 105% 2.00 +0.10 1.47 x 107% 1.57 +0.10
Marlins RHP at home Nick Pivetta PHI 596 1.81 x 106% 1.92 +0.10 1.41 x 106% 1.49 +0.08
Cubs RHP on road Jhoulys Chacin MIL 685 2.16 x 89% 1.93 -0.23 1.66 x 89% 1.47 -0.18
Giants RHP on road Antonio Senzatela COL 273 1.79 x 106% 1.89 +0.10 1.40 x 105% 1.47 +0.07
Nationals RHP at home Miles Mikolas STL 677 2.27 x 81% 1.84 -0.43 1.72 x 84% 1.45 -0.27
Dodgers RHP at home Zack Wheeler NYM 662 2.25 x 82% 1.85 -0.40 1.70 x 83% 1.42 -0.28
Athletics RHP at home Luis Severino NYY 694 2.06 x 89% 1.83 -0.23 1.57 x 90% 1.42 -0.15
Reds RHP on road Jameson Taillon PIT 657 2.01 x 89% 1.80 -0.21 1.54 x 92% 1.41 -0.13
Phillies RHP on road Sandy Alcantara MIA 21 2.05 x 83% 1.69 -0.36 1.56 x 80% 1.24 -0.32
Mets LHP on road Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD 206 1.96 x 76% 1.49 -0.47 1.50 x 78% 1.17 -0.33
Tigers RHP on road Michael Kopech CHW 48 1.77 x 51% 0.90 -0.87 1.38 x 58% 0.80 -0.58
Twins LHP on road Framber Valdez HOU 58 1.81 x 48% 0.87 -0.94 1.38 x 47% 0.65 -0.73

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.61
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Indians RHP at home Brad Keller KCR 468 2.48 x 85% 2.10 -0.38 1.86 x 87% 1.61 -0.25
Braves RHP at home Hector Velazquez BOS 317 2.15 x 93% 2.00 -0.15 1.63 x 96% 1.57 -0.06
Red Sox RHP on road Mike Foltynewicz ATL 623 2.36 x 84% 1.98 -0.39 1.78 x 84% 1.50 -0.29
Royals RHP on road Corey Kluber CLE 723 1.99 x 82% 1.63 -0.35 1.53 x 84% 1.29 -0.24

Straight Cheese Week 21 Streaming Starting Pitchers – Sanchez, Suarez, Holland

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Andrew Suarez, San Francisco Giants

Week 21 of fantasy baseball season! Keep plugging away! Chris has three pitchers for us to stream this weekend, including San Francisco Giants Andrew Suarez scheduled Saturday against the Texas Rangers.

Fantasy baseball owners, this is the place where you come to get the Straight Cheese on less than desirable, questionably talented, less than 50% owned starting pitchers you can use for a spot start. Streaming pitchers is necessary to get those all-important counting stats for your roto league without drop-kicking your ratio stats into submission.

Before we dive into the dumpster looking for week 21 streaming starting pitchers, let’s take a look back at my picks from last week.

Week 20 Review

Name Date GS IP ER H BB K Dec ERA WHIP
Kyle Gibson MIN 8/17 vs DET 1 7.00 3 8 3 5 W 3.86 1.57
Anthony DeSclafini CIN 8/17 vs SFG 1 7.67 1 6 1 5 – 1.17 0.91
Jake Odorizzi MIN 8/19 vs DET 1 5.00 4 4 2 7 – 7.20 1.20
Luis Castillo CIN 8/19 vs SFG 1 6.67 1 3 0 9 W 1.35 0.45
Total for Week   4 26.33 9 21 6 26 2-0 3.08 1.03
Running Total   58 339.00 124 283 108 339 26-12 3.29 1.15

Well, we stumbled a bit this week thanks to Odorizzi’s rough outing. But for the week overall, the numbers were effective.

Week 21 Streaming Starting Pitchers

The pitchers are listed in order of appearance as of Wednesday morning. Ownership info from Yahoo! (Y) and ESPN (E) and all 2018 stats are through Tuesday, August 21st.

RHP Anibal Sanchez, ATL
Owned Y55%/E46% – @ Miami Marlins – Saturday, August 25th

Its been a while since I’ve picked on the Miami Marlins but here we are. The fish are currently struggling against RHP at home to the tune of a 0.289 wOBA (29th) and 0.104 iso (last in mlb). They are only striking out 20.6% of the time (11th) but Sanchez is someone that should take advantage of this matchup.

Anibal Sanchez currently has a 3.13 era, 1.09 whip and 98 strikeouts in 97 2/3 innings. That’s a 9.03 k/9 and 24.7 k%. Away from SunTrust Park he has a 3.00 era, 1.08 whip and 54 strikeouts in 48 innings. That works out to a 10.13 k/9 and 27.8 k%.

LHP Andrew Suarez, SF
Owned Y7%/E6% – vs Texas Rangers – Saturday, August 25th

LHP Derek Holland, SF
Owned Y20%/E20% – vs Texas Rangers – Sunday, August 26th

On the road versus southpaws, Texas Rangers are posting a 0.275 wOBA (29th), 0.115 iso (26th) and are striking out 26.7% of the time (worst in mlb). They are the reason I write this weekly article. In fact, I’ve picked on the Rangers the most so far this season. In those 7 games my line comes out to 2.39 era, 1.33 whip, 4 wins and 37 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings. Most of the damage was done in the first two games. If you only look at the 5 games since Memorial Day you’ll see this: 0.63 era, 1.15 whip, 4 wins and 29 strikeouts in 28 2/3 innings.

The 25 year-old Andrew Suarez comes into the weekend series with a 4.68 era, 1.36 whip and 103 strikeouts in 119 1/3 innings (7.77 k/9 and 20.6 k%). At home he’s pitching better (3.79 era, 1.10 whip and 51 strikeouts in 59 1/3 innings). That’s a 7.74 k/9 and 22.0 k%.

The 31 year-old Derrick Holland’s overall numbers are better with a 3.75 era, 1.30 whip and 137 strikeouts in 134 1/3 innings for a 9.18 k/9 and 24.0 k%. His home numbers are slightly worse with a 4.18 era and 1.20 whip but he’s striking out batters at a 10.13 k/9 and 27.3 k% clip. For what it is worth his home xFIP sits at 3.13 so you could say that he’s been somewhat unlucky at home so far in 2018. I have a feeling that his luck will turn around this weekend against he Rangers.

Remember, these suggestions aren’t ludicrous. They’re @Roto_Chris.