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The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI Part 2

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Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

Chris is excited about his team in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, or TGFBI for short. Maybe even as excited as Atlanta Braves’ Freddie Freeman, Chris’ 2nd round pick. Here is part two of his draft recap.

Last week I wrote about the first 10 picks of my draft in League 21 of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI). In this piece I’m going to take you all the way through pick 30.

Quick reminder that I’m picking from the 10th slot in the draft, and using the ATC projections in my Draft Buddy setup. I’m also showing you, the reader, how I use my Target Percentages philosophy/method during a fantasy baseball draft.

When last we spoke my Target Percentages through 10 rounds were as follows:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Through Round 10 57% 56% 57% 73% 4.50
Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Through Round 10 32% 48% 35% 3.75 4.75

With half of my starting hitters drafted I’m over 50% in all counting stats and in the positive with batting average. All good. The down side is that I’ll be drafting hitters with less than desirable profiles, as well as not one, but two starting catchers which should be filed somewhere under cruel and unusual punishment.

As for pitching, I clearly have some work to do. I only have two starters (Chris Sale & Charlie Morton) to go with one closer (Kenley Jansen). I’ll be looking to bolster my staff sooner rather than later in this draft. Which leads me to…

Pick 11.10, 160th overall – SP Andrew Heaney

Heaney, Jose Quintana or Rick Porcello. The hit to ratios is too much with Quintana or Porcello. I can make the difference in wins with RPs.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Quintana 13% 0% 12% -1.25 -2.00
Heaney 11% 0% 12% -1.00 -0.50
Porcello 15% 0% 12% -2.50 -1.00

Heaney bounced back nicely from Tommy John surgery in 2018 with 180 strikeouts, a 4.15 ERA, 3.68 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP in 180 innings. A sub-4.00 ERA appears to be achievable in 2019.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 32% 48% 35% 3.75 4.75
Heaney 11% 0% 12% -1.00 -0.50
New Pitching Total 43% 48% 47% 2.75 4.25

Pick 12.06, 171st overall – RP Jose Alvarado

David Robertson went at 12.03 to Kenny Butrym. He was someone I was hoping to get here. Closer is a delicate position most years, and 2019 is no exception. There are a handful of “named” closers and they go quickly. On my board I have 3 left in this tier: Will Smith, Jose Alvarado and Cody Allen (ADP 11.11). I could possibly get Smith later (ADP 14.06).

Alvarado posted an elite 30.4% strikeout rate last season. The only thing holding him back from being an elite closer is playing for the Tampa Bay Rays and their blatant disregard for running a conventional bullpen.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 43% 48% 47% 2.75 4.25
Alvarado 3% 29% 5% 0.50 -0.25
New Pitching Total 46% 77% 52% 3.25 4.00

Pick 13.10, 190th overall – 1B Eric Hosmer

I know, everyone hates Hosmer. But, he is the highest rated player left on my board by a decent amount. I didn’t expect to draft my UT player this early, but I can’t pass up the value.

Hosmer’s batting average since 2011:

  • Even years 0.232, 0.270, 0.266 and 0.253
  • Odd years: 0.293, 0.302, 0.297 and 0.318 – Psst! 2019 is an odd year!
Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 57% 56% 57% 73% 4.50
Hosmer 7% 8% 8% 4% 0.50
New Batting Total 64% 64% 65% 77% 5.00

If you’ve been paying attention, you may have realized that I don’t have a 3B yet. By my count, the top 23 have been taken off the board and I don’t have one of them. In my opinion, third base goes 33 deep and the difference between #33 and #15 is about $5.

With 6 bats left for my starting lineup, I feel I am in great shape. I will definitely be making withdrawals from that +5.00 batting average to get to 100% in the counting stats.

Pick 14.06, 201st overall – SP Ross Stripling

This pick was made in the middle of the “Kershaw is dead” hysteria last week. I had my eye on Stripling even before Nick Pollack of PitcherList said he was grabbing up all shares of Stripling on the Benched with Bubba podcast. He’s one of the few starters still on the board that doesn’t hurt your ratios in some way. This was probably a reach but I feel comfortable with the decision (even if it looks like Kershaw apparently didn’t die).

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 46% 77% 52% 3.25 4.00
Stripling 8% 0% 8% 0.25 0.00
New Pitching Total 54% 77% 60% 3.50 4.00

Stripling brings me to 4 SP and 2 RP. I’ll be drafting a few sub-optimal starters to get me to 100% in wins and strikeouts. The cost will be those ratios.

Pick 15.10, 220th overall – OF Max Kepler

Kyle Seager just sent me his resumé for my open 3B position. He’s at the top of my list but I have another candidate in my mind. Someone even cheaper than Seager. With that, I shift focus to the outfield. The top two on my board are Odubel Herrera and Kepler. I decide to go with Kepler for the HR.

He lowered his K% and raised his BB% last season and was rewarded with… a .224 batting average? Ugh, a .236 BABIP will do that. Crossing my fingers for a little regression. Regardless, he appears to be on track for 20+ homeruns, 70+ runs, 70+ RBI and a handful of stolen bases.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 64% 64% 65% 77% 5.00
Kepler 8% 7% 7% 4% -1.00
New Batting Total 72% 71% 72% 81% 4.00

Pick 16.06, 231st overall – RP Andrew Miller

I think Miller has a solid chance at getting the closer gig for the Cardinals. Even if he doesn’t, his numbers will surely help you over the course of the season. He’s a bit of a health risk and he’s coming off a down season where he posted a 4.24 ERA; his worst since becoming a full-time reliever in 2012.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 54% 77% 60% 3.50 4.00
Miller 4% 13% 6% 0.75 0.50
New Pitching Total 58% 90% 66% 4.25 4.50

Pick 17.10, 250th overall – C Welington Castillo

It says in the rules that I have to start a catcher. Well, actually two catchers. I chose Castillo mostly because he seems to have a lock on being the primary catcher for the Chicago White Sox and he’s got some pop without killing your average.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 72% 71% 72% 81% 4.00
Castillo 5% 4% 5% 1% -0.25
New Batting Total 77% 75% 77% 82% 3.75

Pick 18.06, 261st overall – 3B Maikel Franco

Remember back when I said I had another candidate in mind for third base? Got’em. Two rounds later I get basically the same player with slightly fewer runs and RBI but with a much better batting average.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Seager (drafted 16.05) 8% 7% 8% 1% -1.50
Franco 8% 6% 7% 1% -0.25

Franco has lowered his K% over the last three years while increasing his ISO. No one is talking about him this season, but he seems like a lock for 20+ homeruns, 60+ runs and 70+ RBI while batting somewhere between .250 to .270. I’ll take that at this point in the draft.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 77% 75% 77% 82% 3.75
Franco 8% 6% 7% 1% -0.25
New Batting Total 85% 81% 84% 83% 3.50

Pick 19.10, 280th overall – OF Odubel Herrera

I almost took Herrera back in the 15th when I took Kepler. He is still there staring me down.

Many are scared off by his recent hamstring injury. Not me. While he hit a career best 22 bombs in 2018 it came at the expense of his batting average (career low .255) and stolen bases (career low 5). I’m gambling that 2018 was the exception and he gets back on track.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 85% 81% 84% 83% 3.50
Herrera 6% 6% 7% 6% 0.00
New Batting Total 91% 87% 91% 89% 3.50

Pick 20.06, 291st overall – SP Jake Junis

Well, we all knew this time would come. I’ve been banking up those ratios for this moment. He’s the highest ranked remaining starter on my list. That’s about all I can say about him. He will not be the last starter I draft. I’m hoping to get a few more and stream them in and out of my starting lineup in hopes of minimizing the damage they do to my ratios.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 58% 90% 66% 4.25 4.50
Junis 11% 0% 11% -2.00 -1.00
New Pitching Total 69% 90% 77% 2.25 3.50

Pick 21.10, 310th overall – OF Kole Calhoun

My 5th outfielder that should help me a little bit in steals. From 2013-2017 his BABIP was .303 which is right around league average. Last year it was .241, so I’m betting on things getting back to “normal” for him in 2019.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 91% 87% 91% 89% 3.50
Calhoun 6% 7% 7% 4% -1.75
New Batting Total 97% 94% 98% 93% 1.75

Here are the rest of my picks:

  • Pick 22.06, 321st overall – 3B Jeimer Candelario – Hoping the wrist injury is behind him (.225 ISO before; .148 after).
  • Pick 23.10, 340th overall – SP Zack Eflin – Up and down 2018; hoping for a bounceback.
  • Pick 24.06, 351st overall – RP Ryan Brasier – Decent chance to be the closer in Boston.
  • Pick 25.10, 370th overall – 2B Starlin Castro – Why not? Projected for 14+ homeruns, 64+ RBI, 60+ runs with a .266+ average.
  • Pick 26.06, 381st overall – C Tyler Flowers – Well, I have to start 2 catchers.
  • Pick 27.10, 400th overall – SP Trevor Cahill – Great start in 2018 (3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 25 K% in first 13 games) before coming back down to Earth.
  • Pick 28.06, 411st overall – RP Diego Castillo – Used by the Rays as an “opener” but has closer stuff (29.3 K%).
  • Pick 29.10, 430th overall – 3B Zack Cozart – Drafted right before his injury news came out.
  • Pick 30.06, 441st overall – SP Robbie Erlin – Last year had a 4.21 ERA but a 3.41 xFIP.

Closing Thoughts

Here are my starting bats:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
C – Wellington Castillo 5% 4% 5% 1% -0.25
C – Tyler Flowers 3% 4% 4% 0% -0.50
1B – Freddie Freeman 9% 9% 10% 6% 3.50
2B – Brian Dozier 9% 8% 8% 9% -1.50
3B – Maikel Franco 8% 6% 7% 1% -0.25
SS – Xander Bogaerts 7% 8% 9% 8% 1.75
OF – Starling Marte 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
OF – Eddie Rosario 9% 8% 8% 7% 1.25
OF – Max Kepler 8% 7% 7% 4% -1.00
OF – Odubel Herrera 6% 6% 7% 6% 0.00
OF – Kole Calhoun 6% 7% 7% 4% -1.75
MI – Tim Anderson 6% 7% 6% 18% -0.75
CI – Matt Olson 11% 8% 9% 1% -1.00
UT – Eric Hosmer 7% 8% 8% 4% 0.50
Starters Total 100% 98% 102% 93% 1.25

I fell just a bit shy in runs and a good bit in steals of my 100% goal but I’m ahead in RBI and batting average. All in all, I’m in good shape. My bench hitters:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Jeimer Candelario 3B 6% 7% 6% 0.02
Starlin Castro 2B 5% 6% 6% 0.04
Zack Cozart 3B 5% 6% 5% 0.01

With his recent injury, Cozart will be the first to be dropped. Here is my core pitching staff as I see it today:

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Chris Sale 16% 0% 17% 3.00 4.00
Charlie Morton 13% 0% 12% 0.00 -0.50
Andrew Heaney 11% 0% 12% -1.00 -0.50
Ross Stripling 8% 0% 8% 0.25 0.00
Kenley Jansen 3% 48% 6% 0.75 1.25
Jose Alvarado 3% 29% 5% 0.50 -0.25
Andrew Miller 4% 13% 6% 0.75 0.50
Core Pitching Total 58% 90% 66% 4.25 4.50

And here are the players I will rotate in and out weekly based on matchup, etc.:

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Jake Junis 11% 0% 11% -2.00 -1.00
Zach Eflin 12% 0% 9% -1.75 -1.00
Trevor Cahill 8% 0% 8% -1.25 -2.00
Robbie Erlin 6% 0% 6% -1.50 -0.75
Ryan Brasier 3% 18% 4% 0.00 0.00

If Brasier ends up getting the closing gig in Boston I will make him part of the core group. As for the starters listed here, I’d be shocked if any of them are still here when the season ends. I’ll be streaming starting pitchers throughout the season.

Well, I hope you got something out of this exercise. If I had to pin down the overall arching message of the two articles it is that the more you bank your ratios the more you have to withdraw from to get the counting stats. Wish me luck in the TGFBI!

Fantasy Baseball Closer News Roundup – Twins, Cardinals, White Sox

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Greg Holland

Fantasy baseball closer news including the rocky start for Greg Holland with St. Louis Cardinals, and updates on the Twins, White Sox, Brewers, Indians and Astros.

We are into the last week of the first month of fantasy baseball season and a lot happened so far – many injuries across MLB and other things. The phenomena known as Shohei Ohtani has sparked comparisons with Babe Ruth, as far as two way players go. Boston Red Sox incredible start and, ironically, Oakland Athletics Sean Manaea’s no hitter against said Red Sox. Much to my chagrin, the Minnesota Twins’ pitching staff igniting the New York Yankees early season slump (as usual).

As far as closers go, it’s been relatively quiet although there are a few tidbits of note. You can also keep on top of things checking our news feed filtered by closers and primary setup men from our depth charts.

Minnesota Twins

Fernando Rodney of the Twins still has a hold on the closer job but has looked anything but solid in his outings. He blew a save opportunity Thursday night recording no outs and collecting the loss after allowing a three run home run to Gary Sanchez.

That is Rodney’s third straight blown save. Unfortunately, setup man Addison Reed has given up runs in two if his last three outings, so he isn’t showing he is ready to close games.

St. Louis Cardinals

One of the situations to keep an eye is in St. Louis. The Cardinals thought they had solved their back of the bullpen issues when they signed free agent Greg Holland a week into the season. Holland, who had been working out in Florida, was coming off a solid season with the Rockies saving 41 games and helping the Rocks get to the NL Wild Card game last year.

This year has been rocky (no pun intended) so far. He clearly is behind from a control standpoint walking eight batters in five innings. As a result, manager Mike Matheny has been using Bud Norris in closing situations.

It may be that Matheny is letting Holland get his feet under him and let him work through his control issues with the belief that he’ll get himself straightened out and help the Cardinals chase down the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. With that being said, if you haven’t picked up Norris or are looking to handcuff somebody with Holland, it would be a good idea to get him.

Chicago White Sox

Another situation to look at was one I was curious about last week but wanted to let things play out and see where things fell. Chicago White Sox closer situation is questionable as well. Joakim Soria is the closer as of today. He has two saves and an ERA of 3.38.

The issue isn’t the ERA or the saves, but rather is there a better option? I believe there is. Nate Jones is the current setup man for Soria. He has one save but his ERA (1.04) and his strikeouts (11) are better than Soria.

The White Sox record currently sits at 5-16, which certainly doesn’t lend itself to many save opportunities. But as a good friend of mine says with regards to bad teams and saves, “somebody has to get them”.

Brewers, Indians, Astros

The Milwaukee Brewers are still closing by committee although Josh Hader seems to be getting the call more often before Matt Albers and Jacob Barnes.

The Indians put Andrew Miller on the 10-day DL Thursday with a hamstring strain. I asked last week, would Tito ever think about switching up Cody Allen and Miller? The answer for that right now is no but I still think it’s a possibility down the road.

Finally Ken Giles of the Astros is still manager AJ Hinch’s go-to man but that leash appears to be getting shorter and shorter.

Closer Roundup – Rays Alex Colome, Astros Ken Giles

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Alex Colome

Tampa Bay Rays closer Alex Colome is struggling and that could prompt a change, but is Sergio Romo a capable replacement? Andy takes a look at the Rays, Astros and Brewers closer situations for us.

We are over half way done with April but haven’t played a whole lot of games yet thanks in large part to Mother Nature. Even dome stadiums aren’t safe from the elements. We’ve had one significant injury among closers to Corey Knebel of the Milwaukee Brewers, and some shaky late inning bullpen situations. Here are three teams to monitor for a potential change before they cause any grief to your fantasy baseball team.

Tampa Bay Rays

Alex Colome Current Closer Sergio Romo Waiting

Although I don’t see Colome necessarily losing his role as closer, mainly because Romo isn’t really a valid option, he’s blown two saves already raising some red flags in Tampa. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times discusses why Colome has been struggling this year.

Kevin Cash said out loud what others have been suggesting, that opposing hitters know Colome is going to rely on his cutter much more heavily than his fastball, and they are able to take advantage of it.

According to FanGraphs, Colome is throwing his cutter 75% of the time so far this year. This is up from 67% in 2017 and 52% in 2016 (Topkin). Teams are indeed sitting on the cutter and much like you would teach a young hitter: sit fastball and adjust to everything else.

Houston Astros

Ken Giles Current Closer Chris Devinski, Brad Peacock Waiting

Giles hasn’t really been setting the world on fire so far this year. He has one save and has been shaky at best during his outings. As of April 8th, manager AJ Hinch committed to Giles as the closer. Since then, Peacock (one save) and Devinski (two saves) have picked up the saves that Giles normally would have earned.

From Astros beat reporter Brian McTaggart, Hinch made comments after the April 13th game that the schedule, matchups and way the games have played out resulted in opportunities for Peacock and Devenski. Hinch added, “I think that at the end of the season Ken Giles will have the most saves, but I don’t know”.

If you trust Hinch, and more importantly Giles, then you have nothing to worry about. I, on the other hand, don’t necessarily like the tone of Hinch and his overall feelings towards keeping Giles in his current role. I prefer Devinski over both Peacock and Giles.

Milwaukee Brewers

Committee Current Closer Josh Hader Waiting and Willing

The good news is Corey Knebel is progressing from his hamstring injury, estimated six weeks recovery from April 5. Speaking from experience, hamstrings are always tough to judge because they can pop or get tweaked again if you step just right or if not warmed up properly.

That being said, the Brewers are using Matt Albers and Jacob Barnes extensively, but Josh Hader is leading the Brew Crew in saves, holds and strikeouts (stats). What this tells me is that Hader is arguably the most valuable relief pitcher the Brewers have.

If you are into sabermetrics, you could argue the reason for the high number of holds is that manager Craig Counsel is using Hader in important situations. If you’re an old school stat person, it might tell you Hader is your prototypical set up person. It tells me Hader is their best pitcher and he will have the full time closer job soon.

Discussion – Cleveland Indians

I thought about everything that I’ve written this season about closers and potential changes that may occur sooner rather than later. I’d like to throw this out there and see what other people think: Is Cody Allen a better closer than Andrew Miller?

Miller is a hard throwing lefty with a wipe out slider. Miller also comes three-quarter delivery and is a beast against lefties. Allen is a righty that depends very much on his curveball as his fastball is 93-95. Although Allen is the current closer, would Tito ever go to Miller?