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Super-Flex with IDP Dynasty Draft Recap

July 9, 2015 By AskTony Leave a Comment

In a new startup dynasty fantasy football draft for a league with a super-flex (flex QB) position, Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck is about as no-brainer as it gets for pick 1.01.

In a new startup dynasty fantasy football draft for a league with a super-flex (flex QB) position, Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck is about as no-brainer as it gets for pick 1.01.

Playing fantasy football has taught me what I really like and don’t like in terms of different league formats. In joining a new startup dynasty league this summer, I found exactly what I wanted. The league uses performance plus point-per-reception (PPR) scoring, includes individual defensive players (IDP) and has a super-flex starting position. That means I can start a QB/RB/WR/TE in that roster spot, in addition to another flex starting position which is the more common RB/WR/TE.

Strategizing prior to the draft, although I am not required to start 2 QB, I approached it as a 2 QB league since quarterbacks score the most points. The position could dry up quickly if I don’t put appropriate emphasis on acquiring two starters.

Wide receivers have more value in dynasty leagues than redraft leagues because they typically have longer fantasy-productive careers than running backs. However, the way football is trending in the NFL and college, the wide receiver position is extremely deep. I don’t want to wait too long to draft running backs.

My plan was to target a top tier quarterback in round one, wide receiver in round two, and then go best player available in rounds three and four.

1.01 QB Andrew Luck, Colts

What a way to start, with the first overall pick in a startup dynasty league. Since this is, in my mind, a 2 QB league, my decision was between Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, arguably the two best quarterbacks in the game currently. I decided to go with the youth of Luck since this is a dynasty league. He is only getting better and is not yet close to his peak. Note, Rodgers fell to pick 1.05.

2.07 WR Randall Cobb, Packers

I was part of the first trade of the league. During pick 2.04 selection, I traded my 2.10 and 3.01 draft picks for picks 2.07 and 3.04, moving up three slots in the draft. I had a tough decision between wide receivers Randall Cobb and Alshon Jeffery. I took Cobb. He is six months younger than Jeffery, but has one more year in the NFL than Jeffery. Cobb had more fantasy points in 2014. With the new head coach John Fox in Chicago, I am not exactly sure how the offense will look in 2015, but I do know how the offense runs in Green Bay. Finally, the tipping point was Cobb has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him, who I have a TON more confidence in than Jay Cutler and whoever the future is in Chicago.

3.04 WR Alshon Jeffery, Bears

Well, forget all those negative comments I just made towards Alshon, I was surprised he fell to me at 3.04. I gladly took him. Jeffery is the new number one wide receiver in Chicago. With the additions of rookie Kevin White and free agent Eddie Royal, Jeffery should not be swamped with double coverage every play. The last two seasons, playing alongside Brandon Marshall (now with the New York Jets), Jeffery was able to finish as the ninth ranked wide receiver in 2013 and 12th ranked WR in 2014. I’m excited to see what he can do with new offensive coordinator Adam Gase who joins the Bears from the Denver Broncos.

4.10 RB Melvin Gordon, Chargers

The second rookie running back taken in the 2015 NFL Draft, Melvin Gordon landed in a great situation. If you read my Top 10 Rookie Running Backs, you know I am very high on Gordon, so much so that I like him more than rookie Todd Gurley due to his torn ACL history (even though he seems to be recovering well). Gordon will be a great two-down back that can move the chains. His only competition is on third down where veteran Danny Woodhead will steal some production. Gordon has a bright future ahead of him, I am glad he is on my team.

5.01 RB Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks

After taking a rookie as my first running back on my team, I had a very difficult decision on my hands between veteran running backs Matt Forte and Marshawn Lynch and youngster Carlos Hyde. Since I already own Jeffery, I did not want a RB/WR combo from the same NFL team on my team, which nixed Forte. Hyde showed some bursts of success in 2014, however, the San Francisco team is a lot different this year. Hyde is more “boom or bust.” So, I’ll take a top five consistent running back in Lynch. Yes, he is approaching 30 years old, but he hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down. Of the only five running backs to finish in the Top 12 running backs EACH of the last three years, Lynch finished with the second best yards-per-carry (YPC) at 4.64. I have a great core of youth so far; I figured I could afford an aged veteran who still produces week in and week out.

6.10 RB Alfred Morris, Redskins

My MFL10 draft recap already indicated I am all-in on Alfred Morris this year. Morris is in the last year of his rookie contract, so he will try to make a statement for either the Washington Redskins to resign him or for another team to pay him some big money. Also, the Redskins brought in a possible threat to Morris’ job in Matt Jones. I feel Jones will only push Morris to be more successful. Just like Lynch, Morris finished with a solid 4.52 YPC among an exclusive group of running backs who ranked in the Top 12 at their position each of the last three years.

7.01 QB Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings

Teddy Bridgewater had the most successful rookie season of the rookie quarterbacks in 2014. He now has running back Adrian Peterson returning, the burner Mike Wallace at wide receiver, and sleeper receiver Charles Johnson to threaten defenses. Bridgewater is young and shows a TON of potential, I love him as my second quarterback as I expect him to crack the Top 12 quarterbacks this year, and his youth makes him a high value dynasty asset.

8.10 WR Jarvis Landry, Dolphins

Of the strong performances by rookie wide receivers in 2014, not many people recognize what Jarvis Landry accomplished. He had a great season in his own right. Landry caught 84 of 112 targets thrown his way, which makes for a 75% catch rate. Landry is a PPR machine. With the departure of Mike Wallace, and additions of receiver Kenny Stills and tight end Jordan Cameron, everything is set up for Landry to build on his strong rookie year as an also-ascending Ryan Tannehill’s number one receiving option.

9.01 WR Martavis Bryant, Steelers

Playing alongside arguably the best fantasy wide receiver in Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant proved he is here to stay in the NFL. Bryant is the definition of “deep ball threat”, tracking 549 yards on only 26 receptions last season for a ridiculously good 21.1 yards per reception. The expectation is that he beats out Markus Wheaton for the starting job opposite Brown in 2015, resulting in more snaps and more opportunity. Bryant appears committed to his craft, even taking mixed martial arts training in the offseason to help with his hand work fighting off defenders. Bryant rounds out a corps of great young wide receivers on my team that I am extremely happy with.

10.10 LB Jamie Collins, Patriots
11.01 LB Alec Ogletree, Rams

Finally paying some attention to the IDP side of my roster, my first two linebackers finished just inside the Top 10 linebackers in 2014. Jamie Collins finished ninth and Alec Ogletree, tenth. Collins plays on a team with a strong offense. He relies more on big plays which he definitely showed a knack for last season, plus was no slouch in the tackle department once he earned significant playing time. Ogletree plays on a team with an offense that struggles, providing solid tackle opportunity for him. Plus he plays three downs due to his solid pass coverage skills. He led the league in passes defensed amongst LB last season with 12. Both players are only in entering their third year in the league.

At this point in the draft, in a 10-team league with 35-man rosters, I wanted to trade up to help acquire more quality defensive players of my choosing at the expense of some slightly later round picks. While I can wait at defensive back, the defensive line will get thin on quality rather quickly, and it is always good to stockpile linebackers, another thinning position in recent years with more 3-4 defensive formations and increased passing offenses. I successfully traded up to picks 11.03 and 11.05, while moving out of the 12th, 13th and 14th rounds completely.

11.03 LB Telvin Smith, Jaguars

Telvin Smith was quite a surprise for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2014 as he emerged as a three-down linebacker by the end of the year. Smith had a phenomenal second half of the 2014 season. After starting with only 20 solo tackles through eight games, he finished with 52 solo tackles over the last eight games, three games of which were in double digits. He finished with a total of 104 tackles (72 solo) despite playing fewer than 75% of the available defensive snaps. Smith is going to become an elite linebacker in 2015 and is a great addition to round out my amazing linebacker corps.

11.05 DE Chandler Jones, Patriots
15.03 DE Ezekiel Ansah, Lions

My next two picks consisted of young and productive defensive ends. Chandler Jones ranks among the top five defensive ends in the game. Although he was injured part of the 2014 season, he had an unspecified surgery this offseason (hopefully to fix the 2014 injury) and is expected to be ready for the start of training camp. Ezekiel “Ziggy” Ansah is entering his third year for the Detroit Lions. He increased his stats from 2013 to 2014, and I expect another increase in 2015. After the J.J. Watt DL tier, there is the reliable 10 sack, not shy tacklers DL tier, who we can trust to start every week for fantasy regardless of matchup. Jones and Ansah fall in that tier, which if you don’t pay a fair price for these players can leave you scrambling and frustrated at the position.

16.06 DB Landon Collins, Giants
16.10 LB Stephone Anthony, Saints

Two rookie selections here, but they are not classified as “rookie fever,” at least not in my book. Landon Collins plays the safety position, but he likes to play in the defensive “box” which means his opportunity to rack up tackles is extremely high. Stephone Anthony should start for the New Orleans Saints Day 1 as they do not have any competition ahead of him. He is great against the run, a great athlete, and a great tackler.

17.10 TE Dwayne Allen, Colts

I selected Tyler Eifert at 17.01 however, right after I did, an owner contacted me asking me what I wanted for Eifert. After reviewing the available tight ends, I agreed to trade Eifert, pick 22.10 and pick 29.01 for picks 17.10, 20.03 and 25.08.

I love the Andrew Luck to Dwayne Allen connection. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Indianapolis, so Allen might not see as many targets as he did in 2014, but he is a big touchdown-target for Luck.

19.01 RB Matt Jones, Redskins
20.03 RB Joique Bell, Lions
21.01 WR Kendall Wright, Titans

Rookie Matt Jones is backing up my Alfred Morris pick. With Morris in a contract year, Jones might be in line to take over for Morris next year. Early reports suggest Jones may steal some looks from Morris in 2015, thus, I have this backfield locked up from other owners. As of right now, Joique Bell is the number one rusher for the Lions. He adds more depth to my running back position and his value was too good to pass up in the 20th round. A new offense and a new quarterback mean a possible resurgence in the career of Kendall Wright. I would not be surprised if he leads the Titans receivers this year.

23.01 QB Andy Dalton, Bengals
24.10 WR Justin Hardy, Falcons

Andy Dalton is the third quarterback on my roster. I am very surprised he is still available in the 23rd round. I know he is either hit or miss, but with AJ Green and Jeremy Hill, the team is bound to put up some points. He’s definitely great value here, in my opinion. With Julio Jones and Roddy White demanding all the attention on the outsides, rookie slot receiver Justin Hardy should find some openings on the field in the aerial attack of the Falcons. Given the injury history of both Jones and White, Hardy may be called upon to do more sooner rather than later.

25.01 DB Barry Church, Cowboys
26.10 LB Denzel Perryman, Chargers

27.01 LB Jake Ryan, Packers
Barry Church has consistently put up big fantasy numbers for defensive backs. Yes he is up there in age, but he continues to produce. Plus, the fantasy point differential in defensive backs at this stage in the draft is minimal. To round out my great linebacker squad, I decided to take a chance on two rookies in amazing positions. Both Denzel Perryman and Jake Ryan have the opportunity to put up massive numbers for their squads this year. It will not take much for Perryman to replace a disappointing Manti Te’o and lead the Chargers the in tackles as soon as the latter half of this season. Ryan can play any linebacker position, he is very versatile and a great athlete. Ryan is a tackling machine and could start for the Green Bay Packers in Week 1.

28.10 DB Michael Griffin, Titans

A veteran defensive back that always seems to produce. Michael Griffin finished insite the Top 10 defensive backs in 2014 for fantasy points and had the third most tackles. Griffin is a suitable bye-week replacement for my team.

30.10 TE Jason Witten, Cowboys

An aged veteran who continues to be his quarterback’s safety valve, Jason Witten has not seen his last good fantasy season quite yet. With the departure of DeMarco Murray and questionable running back replacements, QB Tony Romo might return to relying on his tight end more to get him out of tough situations.

31.01 RB Mike Davis, 49ers

Carlos Hyde is next in line to take over in the 49ers backfield since veteran Frank Gore left. In my opinion, Hyde is more of a “boom or bust” type player rather than a consistent fantasy producer. The 49ers also brought in veteran Reggie Bush whose purpose will most likely be in passing downs. Mike Davis was drafted in the 2015 NFL Draft and has a nice opportunity if Hyde underwhelms.

32.10 WR Stefon Diggs, Vikings

I love pairing a quarterback with a wide receiver from the same team. Rookie Stefon Diggs is a burner who will quickly work his way up from kickoff and punt returns to catching deep balls from quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Diggs may take on the role that underwhelming Cordarrelle Patterson has yet to fill.

33.01 K Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots

Kickers are kickers, not much difference in points between them all. Gostkowski has been a rock for the New England Patriots and should continue to produce.

34.10 DB Bashaud Breeland, Redskins

An underrated defensive back, Bashaud Breeland stepped up a big way in 2014 for the Washington Redskins. He finished his rookie season with 66 total tackles, 14 pass defenses, and two interceptions. I highly expect the number one corner for the Redskins to continue to grow in 2015 as this defense could be on the field much longer than the offense.

35.01 TE Virgil Green, Broncos

With the departure of tight end Julius Thomas, Virgil Green may finally step out into the spotlight, catching passes from one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, Peyton Manning. Green has mainly been used for run blocking, but he is too athletic to keep him under the same role in 2015. He will undoubtedly see more targets, which makes him a great backup with potential to break out.

35.03 RB Danny Woodhead, Chargers

With my final pick of the draft, I was surprised to still be able to land a positive fantasy contributor in PPR scoring leagues. With my earlier pick of Melvin Gordon, I pretty much lock up the Chargers backfield with Danny Woodhead. While Gordon is not much of a pass catcher, Woodhead will step in on third downs. Reports out of minicamp are that Woodhead looks like his former self prior to a 2014 injury. I think this is a great value pick and could be a huge steal in the draft.

My team:

QB Luck, Bridgewater (Dalton)
RB Lynch, Morris, Gordon (Bell, M. Jones, M. Davis, Woodhead)
WR Cobb, Jeffery, M. Bryant, Landry (Wright, Hardy, Diggs)
TE Allen (Witten, Green)
K Gostkowski
DL Ansah, Jones
LB J. Collins, Ogletree, T. Smith (Anthony, Perryman, Ryan)
DB L. Collins, Church, Griffin (Breeland)

Overall, I think my team rounded out nicely with a mix of young talent and proven veterans. This team should be highly competitive right away, while it still has a very bright long-term outlook thanks to Luck, Bridgewater, Gordon and the receivers.

This startup dynasty draft was a ton of fun. If you aren’t already playing dynasty fantasy football, then get to it. Make sure to try different format leagues this season with a super-flex position, or IDP, to break away from the traditional start 1 QB and team defense leagues.

Filed Under: Dynasty Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football IDP

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, NFC East

June 23, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Philadelphia Eagles QB Sam Bradford is set up for the best season of his career. That is, if he can stay healthy, something he had trouble with playing for the St. Louis Rams.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Sam Bradford is set up for the best season of his career. That is, if he can stay healthy, something he had trouble with playing for the St. Louis Rams.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Despite attempting 100 fewer passes in 2014 compared to 2013, Tony Romo increased his completion percentage by 6%, nearly matched his yardage, tossed three more touchdowns and one less interception. Less is more! Problem is they lost that nearly 450-touch guy, DeMarco something. We’re looking at projections much more in line with 2013.
  • Darren McFadden? Joseph Randle? A player to be named later? Pick your poison, but we do think it is McFadden to the extent he stays healthy. Yep, a pretty big IF there, but a higher profile veteran with the Arkansas connection is likely to be given the primo opportunity. The offensive line will provide a solid level of fantasy success if one does emerge as earning the bulk of the carries, either for the season or for a span of weeks in-season.
  • Romo’s pass attempts are up but numbers are similar for the receivers. In fact, the rush-pass mix is not that different from last season, with more plays overall. Think we need to ratchet down the runners a little, perhaps bump of Terrance Williams. Dez Bryant makes us slightly nervous with the contract talk impasse and talk of a holdout, but for now, have to project him as the stud he is.

New York Giants

  • A lot of talk about Eli Manning being more comfortable in the second year of Ben McAdoo’s offense and how he is going to light it up. I’m buying it. Odell Beckham Jr. from Week 1 and adding Shane Vereen helps quite a bit, too, even with Victor Cruz sidelined.
  • When he played, Rashad Jennings was decent for fantasy last season in his first season with the Giants. A sub-4.0 yards per carry and an injury history doesn’t put fantasy owners at ease he is long for the job though. Good thing he doesn’t have much competition for carries, but the Giants should use Vereen a fair bit, who likely feels he was underused in New England.
  • Beckham a sell high or setting up to be a perennial Top 5 WR? His hamstrings appear they will dictate the best answer. Our initial projections have him 7th at WR, 3-4 spots below his current ADP.
  • More was expected of Rueben Randle to this point of his career, and last year was a prime opportunity for him with Beckham out until Week 5, and Cruz out after Week 6. He disappointed. Continuing good opportunity for him starting this season. I’d draft him as a late pick with upside, but not holding out a ton of hope.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Who is going to quarterback this crew? Its Sam Bradford until we are certain he can’t. And if Bradford can stay in for 16 games, he’s in line for the best season of his career. Mark Sanchez awaits in the wings.
  • 449 touches for DeMarco Murray last season, excluding the playoffs, he can still get a heavy workload in this offense, but not that crazy. Not with Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles needing to get their touches. But that is okay, as last season was Murray’s first playing 16 games. We have him at 300 carries, 25 receptions, still worthy of a high pick.
  • We have Mathews at half the carries of Murray, and Sproles less than half of that, but Sproles dominates the pass targets. All three get drafted but Mathews and Sproles only become reliable fantasy starters if Murray misses time, or the Eagles have a game where they run roughshod over their opponent.
  • By all accounts Jordan Matthews lived up to his rookie draft hype last year with a solid season, but whether he can improve on those numbers will be challenged by the new rookie addition, Nelson Agholor. While I may pass on drafting Matthews, I have a hard time projecting him behind Agholor until we see what positions Chip Kelly settles on for each come training camp.
  • We have modest improvements for Zach Ertz in this third season. There is still upside available there if he can become a red zone threat.

Washington Redskins

  • In a surprising bit of news, head coach Jay Gruden had numerous good things to say about Robert Griffin III. It is still somewhat baffling how fast RG3 fell from rookie sensation to subpar fantasy asset. Injury and work ethic were the problems. Injury must be over by now. Work ethic? Maybe he’s getting it, keeping a lower profile, and maybe it is time to consider buying low.
  • Alfred Morris keeps on chugging along. A classic underrated RB in fantasy circles because of his lack of catches, so short of a monster 1,600-12 line (which he surpassed in 2012), he won’t earn a 1st round grade, but don’t turn your nose up at 1,100-8 in the thick of the RBBC era. Rookie Matt Jones backs him up, but not expecting Jones to unseat Morris.
  • Griffin has good receivers. Makes you think more about RG3 being a value pick, doesn’t it? I’ve traditionally considered DeSean Jackon an every other year player, but he has now strung together two consecutive good seasons. Pierre Garcon needs more targets, especially with the 11.1 yards per catch he had last season.
  • A better third receiver and/or a healthy Jordan Reed would go a long way to helping this offense. Now I’ve come full circle. RG3 has good starting receivers, but not enough pass catching skill around him to be better than a bye week filler, unless he really ramps up the rushing yards again. Not sure the Redskins will push for that.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Reality Sports Online Fantasy Writers League Overview

June 11, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

The player mentioned in this article more than any other is now Oakland Raiders RB Trent Richardson. Just like the Indianapolis Colts cut bait on T-Rich, so did I in my Reality Sports Online league. I've got the dead cap to prove it.

The player mentioned in this article more than any other is now Oakland Raiders RB Trent Richardson. Just like the Indianapolis Colts cut bait on T-Rich, so did I in my Reality Sports Online league. I’ve got the dead cap to prove it.

Reality Sports Online is a very unique fantasy football league that tries to – and does a great job – simulating the actual rules and concepts managing a National Football League team.

It uses a salary cap. Players not under contract (veteran free agents) are bid on through an auction process in which owners can offer multi-year contracts. There is a separate rookie draft, franchise tags, and cap penalties for cutting a player prior to the expiration of his contract. Trades need to account for the salary cap at all times. In-season free agent acquisitions charge a prorated portion of the player’s salary for the remaining season to that team’s cap.

The guys behind RSO, Matt and Stephen, previously worked in the Philadelphia Eagles organization helping manage the Eagles salary cap. That background, and their love for fantasy football, spawned RSO.

They’ve done a great job designing their game, and the developers did an excellent job executing the design. This is the best online live auction experience I’ve ever encountered, and that is with the extra complexity of multi-year deals, so that is really saying something.

In 2013, I was invited by buddy Matt Waldman of Rookie Scouting Portfolio fame to join a start-up Reality Sports Online league along with some very well-known names in the fantasy community from various websites. Bob Harris, Sigmund Bloom, Ryan McDowell, Mike Clay, Evan Silva and Jim Day, and others, are owners in this 14-team league.

Inaugural Train Wreck 2013 Season

I’ll be the first to admit, my inaugural season was not particularly good. I finished in 13th with a 4-9 record, 10th in points. Signing Trent Richardson to a 4-year $97 million mega contract was a disaster, and overall the team was way too heavy at RB, especially considering it is PPR scoring, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex WR/TE.

To give some perspective on Trent’s contract, he counted $21.3 million (17.3%) on a $123 million team cap in 2013. I would have almost been better off giving up my 1st round pick, a la the Indianapolis Colts that year.

Tom Brady was on a nicely priced 3-year contract but had his worst statistical season in 2013 since his injury shortened 2008 campaign. My receivers consisted of Vincent Jackson, Tony Gonzalez and then a bunch of names I’d really rather not repeat.

The Comeback Kid 2014 Season

Last season was a complete turnaround. I still had that albatross of a contract for Trent Richardson tying up a ton of my cap, but given it was Year 2 of a 4-year deal, cap ramifications for cutting him were severe so I decided to suffer and kept him on my roster, approaching the season simply accepting the fact I had less money to spend than the other teams.

Heading into the 2014 rookie draft, I managed a minor miracle by shedding another big money RB contract to free up some much needed cap space. I traded Alfred Morris (2013: $47 million, 3-years) for the 1.04 rookie pick. I already owned 1.02 of course. Those picks turned into Sammy Watkins and Carlos Hyde, fortunately avoiding the consensus top rookie RB Bishop Sankey.

I was too passive in the inaugural auction. I played the waiting game for good values to present themselves, but with this group of aggressive owners, it never happened. Last season I wanted to take the bull by the horns. I had limited funds, but specific player targets to form a more well-rounded team I more or less refused to get outbid on, even if I had to sign them to a longer term than I preferred. And little to no money to be spent at running back.

Those targets panned out nicely. I bought Julian Edelman ($25.5 million, 3-years), Emmanuel Sanders ($36.5 million, 4-years), Greg Olsen ($14 million, 2-years) and I did drop a little at RB on Mark Ingram ($9 million, 2-years).

These acquisitions left me with a core roster heading into 2014 of Brady, Le’Veon Bell (2013 rookie draft), Lamar Miller (2013 auction – did I say I had too many RB?!?), Ingram, Jackson, Sanders, Edelman, Watkins, Olsen, plus “T-gettin’ Rich off me”, who it turned out was useless, and Hyde, who wasn’t necessary to make an impact last season, given the other RB starters and depth.

The end result was 1st overall regular season finish in record at 10-3 and points by over 100 from the 2nd place point-getter, and 240 more than 3rd. Ah, but you know what is coming next, right? This is still a head-to-head fantasy football league. That’s right, I lost the championship game to Bob Harris. I can’t remember the details, but pretty sure it was one of those, his players found the end zone, mine did not weeks.

Black Cloud of Suspensions to Open 2015 Season

Now on to this year, things look a lot brighter heading into it. Mind you, starters Le’Veon Bell and Tom Brady are both serving suspensions to start the season. Hope the other owners are happy I’m taking one for the “team” here waiting out both of those key players to return.

The first decision is what to do with Trent. He counts $25.2 in 2015 (on a $143.3 salary cap, or 17.6%) and $27.2 in 2016. If I cut him now, the cap charge is $12.6 in 2015 and $13.6 in 2016. No brainer, right? Goodbye Trent.

Key players I’m losing because their contract is expiring are Lamar Miller and Vincent Jackson. I could franchise tag one of them, but just like the NFL, the 1-year franchise charge is hefty. It is the average salary of the Top 5 highest paid players at their position.

In Miller’s case, that is $23.7 million. For Jackson, $24 million. I’m not against overpaying for one year of service for a player if he is going to help me win now, but am I going to pay that to Miller when I already have Bell, Hyde and Ingram? Or for Jackson when I already have Edelman, Sanders, Watkins? Probably not. It would be best to look at the available players first before completely discounting the idea, but they likely go back into the auction.

That still leaves me with a projected lineup of Brady (backup Derek Carr, 2014 rookie draft), Bell, Hyde (backup Ingram), Sanders, Edelman, Watkins, (backup Kenny Stills, 2013 rookie draft), Olsen (backup Dwayne Allen, 2014 auction). Not a bad start! And leaves me with a fair bit of flexibility to acquire talent at any of the positions, although I will put the most emphasis at wide receiver.

My rookie pick is next to last, so expectations for that pick making an impact this season will be low. That is probably a good general rule on expectations for all rookie drafts, no matter where you are picking. For every Mike Evans there are a handful of Cody Latimers or Carlos Hydes.

My cap is in decent shape. Carr, Bell, Hyde, Watkins, Stills are all on their initial rookie deals of three years. The teams that are going to do the best in this league are the ones who get production out of their (cheap) rookie contracts. Bell could be a consideration for the franchise tag next offseason. Brady, Ingram and Olsen are all on good to great money terms. Richardson is eating into the cap.

We are working with a $143.3 million cap for 2015, and I’ve got $85.3 under contract plus dead cap, plus another $5.5 committed for five rookie draft picks. That is $90.8 for 19 roster spots, and $52.5 remaining for 11 roster spots. Take off 2 DEF and 2 K at minimum cost of $500,000 each, leaves $50.5 million for 7 players.

That’s not bad. A quick rundown of the UFA list, some who admittedly could be tagged still, indicates Peyton Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Drew Brees, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster, Frank Gore, Lamar Miller, Jonathan Stewart, Alshon Jeffery, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Victor Cruz and Julius Thomas are available.

Good thing I’ve got some money to play with to be an active participant in the auction. Or maybe I can use that flexibility, depth and available cheap contracts to try to trade for a stud WR. Decisions, decisions. Regardless, it should be another great season playing at Reality Sports Online!

Filed Under: Dynasty Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football

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