alex smith Archives | DraftBuddy.com

Preliminary 2016 Quarterback Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 5, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

We have five quarterbacks in Tier 1 of our preliminary ranking tiers, including the Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck, looking for a big comeback off an injury plagued and ugly 2015 season.

Draft Buddy is available for the 2016 fantasy football season. Many of you are already drafting numerous redraft, best-ball and dynasty leagues (me too), so download Draft Buddy to get started down the path to hoisting your league trophy at season’s end.

In addition to providing Draft Buddy each season with player projections from FF Today, we also publish our own projections and cheatsheets right here at draftbuddy.com. Today is the day we get started on that with preliminary quarterback redraft ranking tiers.

To be clear, these are just the tiers, not the actual rankings, so do not get too hung up on where a player is relative to players in the same tier. Focus more on the tier groups themselves.

There is no commentary at this time, but as we slowly roll out our fantasy football projections and rankings for the upcoming season the basic plan is this:

preliminary tiers
rankings and projections
player commentary
ongoing adjustments and updates

With respect to the preliminary tiers, while we have knowledge about current average draft position (i.e. average rankings of players), there was no reference made to ADP creating the tiers. Also, as we dig more into the detailed rankings and projections, a few more outliers from ADP will become more prominent, which will be players we promote to target or avoid in your fantasy drafts.

Please feel free to comment below on the tiers. Who is too high? Who is too low? Who are we totally off base on? Looking forward to your feedback. Lets keep the comments constructive and cool.

Tier 1

Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Drew Brees
Russell Wilson

Tier 2

Ben Roethlisberger
Blake Bortles
Philip Rivers
Tom Brady

Tier 3

Carson Palmer
Eli Manning
Kirk Cousins
Matthew Stafford
Ryan Tannehill

Tier 4

Alex Smith
Andy Dalton
Derek Carr
Jameis Winston
Jay Cutler
Marcus Mariota
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Tyrod Taylor

Tier 5

Blaine Gabbert
Brock Osweiler
Joe Flacco
Mark Sanchez
Teddy Bridgewater

Tier 6

Geno Smith
Jared Goff ®
Robert Griffin III
Sam Bradford

Tier 7

Jimmy Garoppolo
Josh McCown

Kansas City Chiefs Team Report

August 18, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Yards and receptions were down last year for Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles, but it was due to Andy Reid’s play calling, not an apparent decline from Charles. He’s in contention to be the #1 RB and player off the board this season.

QB Alex Smith

Traded to the Chiefs prior to the 2013 season, Smith finished his first season in Kansas City as the 15th ranked fantasy quarterback and followed that up by finishing as the 19th ranked quarterback last season due in part to a historically bad season by the team’s group of wide receivers, as they failed to catch a single touchdown pass. Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery are out, having been replaced by Jeremy Maclin and rookie 3rd round pick Chris Conley. In addition, Travis Kelce is expected to build upon a solid season in 2014 and the team is high on 2nd year player Albert Wilson. Jamaal Charles is one of the league’s elite pass catchers out of the backfield, a fact somewhat lost on head coach Andy Reid last season as Charles caught 30 fewer passes in 2014 (40) than in 2013 (70). Of course, Alex Smith is Alex Smith, a quarterback whose risk free approach results in few turnovers and few big plays and whose career highs are 3,313 passing yards, 23 touchdown passes, 432 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. And that didn’t all happen in one season. Smith is a low upside, lower tier QB2.

RB Jamaal Charles

After topping 1,700 total yards in 2012 and 1,900 total yards in 2013, Charles had a somewhat disappointing 2014 season, gaining just 1,324 total yards, although he did find the end zone a healthy 14 times, the 2nd best total of his career. While Charles missed one game due to an injury and barely played in Week 2, injuries weren’t the reason for his decline in production. Andy Reid’s play calling was. An outstanding receiver, Charles saw his targets drop from 104 to just 59 and his receptions declined from a career-high 70 in 2013 to just 40. It’s not like Reid was saving him for the running game since his carries dropped from 259 to just 206, his lowest total when healthy for 15-16 games since the 2009 season. And just to be clear, efficiency wasn’t an issue since Charles averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per reception in a Chiefs offense that was devoid of playmakers outside of Charles and tight end Travis Kelce. Since we view Reid as a smart guy and with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin having been added to help take some of the pressure off Charles, we are banking on him returning to his 2012-2013 production this year. Look for another 1,700 yard season with double digit touchdowns, putting Charles in contention for being the 1st running back off the board in your draft.

RB Knile Davis

On the one hand, Davis has proven to be a productive fill in for Jamaal Charles when Charles is injured or nicked up. On the other hand, Charles is so effective when healthy that the Chiefs rarely make Davis a big part of the game plan. The 2013 3rd round pick strung together a solid three game run from Weeks 2-4 last season, gaining 353 total yards with three touchdowns. Alas, he totaled 77 touches in those three games but just 73 touches in his 12 other games, which translates to 6.1 touches per game. And it’s hard to be a viable fantasy option with such little work. Davis rates as a must-have handcuff for Charles owners but we wouldn’t recommend him as a solid flex option in leagues that employ that position.

RB De’Anthony Thomas

Taken in the 4th round of last year’s draft, ostensibly to replace the disappointing Dexter McCluster, the 5’8″, 174 pound Thomas was practically invisible during his rookie season, gaining 113 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries while catching 23 passes for 156 yards. With no future at the running back position, the Chiefs wisely moved him to wide receiver in the offseason. While the Chiefs lack a proven starting option opposite Jeremy Maclin, and Thomas could emerge as an opening day starter provided he beats out rookie 3rd round pick Chris Conley and diminutive Albert Wilson, we’re hardly going to endorse a player moving to a new position for your fantasy squad. Deep leaguers may want to monitor his progress as a potential waiver wire option.

WR Jeremy Maclin

Prior to the 2014 season, Maclin bet big on himself, choosing to accept a one-year contract from the Eagles rather than sign a more lucrative long-term deal. He won that bet as he posted a career year with 85 receptions for 1,318 yards and ten touchdowns. It paid off in the form of a five year, $55-million offer from the Chiefs. While the money is nice, don’t expect Maclin’s fantasy production to be as nice as it was in 2014 with the Eagles. Head coach Andy Reid might be a creative offensive game planner but he has rarely ever showered a wide receiver with a high number of targets, and quarterback Alex Smith refuses to throw the ball into heavy traffic. The odds of Maclin reaching the top 10 as a fantasy wide receiver in 2015 are pretty much nil, regardless of the fact the Chiefs depth chart at wide receiver is barren. Remember that both running back Jamaal Charles and tight end Travis Kelce are expected to receive a healthy dose of targets this season. It won’t surprise if Charles, Kelce and Maclin have similar reception totals. If that happens, Maclin will be hard pressed to emerge as anything more than a lower tier WR2 during his first year in Kansas City.

WR Albert Wilson

An undrafted rookie free agent coming out of Georgia State last season, Wilson earned a somewhat significant role in the Chiefs offense during the latter part of the year. Playing outside as well as out of the slot, the 5’9″, 200 pound Wilson caught 12 of his 24 targets during the final four games of the season for 209 yards. While we can hardly endorse Wilson as anything approaching a breakout candidate, there is a decent chance that he will earn a starting role in 2015, at least to open the season. With competition from rookie Chris Conley and converted running back De’Anthony Thomas, Wilson, who possessed outstanding speed, may get a starting nod in Week 1 but with Alex Smith at quarterback, he isn’t expected to have any fantasy appeal.

WR Chris Conley

The Chiefs chose to revamp their wide receiver depth chart in the offseason, leading to the addition of Chris Conley in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. The 6’2″, 213 pound Georgia product possesses a high ceiling but, by almost all accounts, he isn’t going to be ready to contribute in a major way during his rookie season. And with conservative Alex Smith at quarterback having a solid trio of receiving options in Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles ahead of Conley in the pecking order, we aren’t expecting him to contribute much as a rookie. He rates as a mid-tier dynasty prospect.

TE Travis Kelce

After missing all of his rookie season in 2013 after undergoing microfracture surgery, Kelce finished as the 8th ranked fantasy tight end last season. The former 3rd round pick displayed his outstanding athletic ability in finishing the season with 67 receptions for 862 yards and five touchdowns despite being targeted just 87 times, as he lost significant playing time to Anthony Fasano due to Fasano’s superior blocking ability. In 2015, Fasano is gone and so is wide receiver Dwayne Bowe but the Chiefs added Jeremy Maclin in free agency and acquired Chris Conley in the 3rd round of the draft to supplement the wide receiver position. Even with the added talent at wide receiver, we expect Kelce to see his targets and production increase by a healthy margin, in part based on his production over the final four games of last season when he was targeted 30 times, catching 23 passes for 284 yards and a touchdown. Kelce rates as the 3rd best option at tight end this season and he has an outside chance to supplant Jimmy Graham as the 2nd best fantasy option at the position behind Rob Gronkowski.

Also see: Kansas City Chiefs IDP Team Report · Seattle Seahawks Team Report

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC West

June 2, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Are the Denver Broncos going more conservative on us? More rushing? Fewer offensive plays? This is one fantasy owners are going to debate and question all summer.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1 (Draft Buddy coming soon!). To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Denver Broncos

Since we put together our initial projections, two potentially key news items out of Denver. One, LT Ryan Clady tore his ACL and is out for the season. Two, Emmanuel Sanders claims, “my goal is really to try to get a 1,000 yards,” describing the new, more balanced offense under HC Gary Kubiak. Both indicate we should temper our expectations with Denver, starting with Peyton Manning. We have a 20% decline in touchdowns from his 3-year average, but perhaps not enough in the yardage, current projections 410-600-4,900.
C.J. Anderson vs. Montee Ball, who do you like? We think Anderson did more than enough (and Ball has done little) to give him the benefit of the doubt he will lead the team in carries, even under a new coaching staff. That said, he has the lowest projected carries at 225 (tied with Frank Gore) of our Top 15 running backs. It is the receptions that push him up the rankings, at 45 on almost 60 targets, which makes some sense with the departure of and lack of decent replacement for Julius Thomas. Recognizing Ball can carve out a good role for himself, he is projected for 155 carries.
Regardless of Sanders’ comment above, with such a big gap between Demaryius Thomas and Sanders relative to the rest of the receivers, it is difficult to not project them each with similar targets, receptions and yards as last season. Keep in mind the Broncos did reel it in somewhat the second half of 2014 to compensate for Manning’s at the time unknown torn quad muscle injury.
On one hand, sure, lets lower expectations and adjust these projections down, either increasing the run to pass mix, reducing the total number of offensive plays, or both. On the other hand, wouldn’t you still rank Manning and company fairly high based on talent and their ability to put up points when they need to relative to other teams? We’re going to leave the projections as-is for now, but schedule further analysis and discussion soon.

Kansas City Chiefs

Holy conservative offense Batman. While the wide receivers were beyond awful last season, Alex Smith is still going to gravitate to keeping a high pass completion percentage and minimizing turnovers. This no-risk style makes him even a sketchy start in a great matchup. We don’t see the addition of Jeremy Maclin radically altering the expected output from Smith.
How amazing is Jamaal Charles to keep a 5.0+ yards per carry given the limitations of the passing game? That YPC on 250 carries, plus 50 receptions project him the top RB for fantasy football in 2015.
Maclin had an amazing year in 2014 coming off a completely missed 2013 season. He’s a good receiver, but is never going to feel like a WR1 on a team at only 6’0”, 198 lb. We’ve pegged him at closer to an 80-1,000-6 receiver in this offense than the near 1,400 yards, 10 TD he scored last season.
Seriously, Jason Avant is the Chiefs’ WR2? Not impressed.
If someone is going to challenge to be in the same top TE tier as Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham’s name will come up first, but why not Travis Kelce? Why didn’t the Chiefs use him more last season? We have 7-10% gains in targets, receptions and yardage, and there is potential there for more.

Oakland Raiders

We weren’t the only ones impressed with Derek Carr’s under the radar rookie season, were we? Thought he looked pretty good, especially considering what he was working with, and it’s the Raiders. Now they’ve added Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper. That’s got to help. Still a sub-4,000 yard passer but a lot of attempts gets him close plus 24 TD.
Having jettisoned Darren McFadden and failed reclamation project Maurice Jones-Drew, maybe the Raiders found a RB they can count on in Latavius Murray. It feels like we might be too bullish out of the gate here on Murray at over 1,100 yards, but one things the Raiders have done well in recent years is run the ball, and the depth chart isn’t nearly as crowded. Backup Roy Helu will primarily catch passes, making him a decent late round pick in PPR leagues.
Historically Dave has been pro-Crabtree and I’ve been anti-Crabtree. Things might be changing. Dave projected declines across the board for Crabs while I wonder if the change of scenery allows him to finally showcase some skills stifled under the 49ers conservative offense and sporadic play of Colin Kaepernick. Projecting rookies is never easy, even for a bona fide Day 1 starter like Cooper. How Cooper performs will be a major influence on Crabtree’s results.

San Diego Chargers

Philip Rivers is pretty darn consistent. Consistently good at that, and it doesn’t seem to matter too much what specific players are doing around him. If one guy falls off, then he utilizes someone else. Think Antonio Gates in 2013 only scoring 4 TD, and Malcom Floyd out most of the year… here comes Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. Last season Allen slumped and the running game fell on hard times… Floyd returned and use Gates more in the red zone. Not expecting a drop-off based on age just yet, so pencil in another Rivers year with 30 TD.
Melvin Gordon. He’s the clear starter who should garner most of the rushing carries on the season, making him worthy of a relatively high draft pick even with the rookie risk factored in. Still, we don’t want to hand out 1,000 yard rushing seasons willy-nilly. How about 900 on 200 carries, 6 TD? Woodhead had a career year in 2013 so lets not target that. More like half.
Which Keenan Allen can we expect in 2015? The impressive 2013 rookie, or the middle of the road 2014 sophomore? We are thinking closer to 2013. A sophomore slump is very common. Allen’s catch rate dropped 5% in 2014 from 2013, but bump that up and he’s back at an 80-1,000-6 season with potential for more if the targets go up. Gates has indicated he shouldn’t be utilized between the 20s as much, and the other receivers – Floyd, Stevie Johnson – are not a threat to steal targets from Allen. If anything, they are on the downsides of their respective careers.
Gates may want less work to help him stay healthy, but will the Chargers coaching staff comply? It depends on Ladarius Green; it depends on the circumstances at the time. I’d feel more comfortable drafting Gates based on projections of about 80 targets, instead of closer to the 100 he’s averaged the last three years.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series